Musk says 50-50 chance of sending uncrewed Starship to Mars by late 2026.
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Jajah, sellega on ilmselt samamoodi nagu lotovõidu tõenäosusega - kah 50-50. Kas võidad või ei võida.
SpaceXi uus mootor Raptor 3
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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/spacex-worth-1-5-trillion-003006430.html
Tuletan igaks juhuks meelde, et SpaceX eraldi teema on ka olemas.
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SpaceX-i võimalik IPO teeb 2026 kosmoseaktsiate jaoks eriti huvitavaks, aga lisaks jälgin tähelepanelikult ka Artemis II missiooni ja Rocket Labi Neutroni esimest lendu. Kuna mul on portfellis mitu space-ettevõtet, panin kokku lühikese video, kus räägin 2026 aasta katalüsaatoritest ja 10est lemmik ettevõttest:
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Päris hea prospektieelne analüüs. Source: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47613231
“This comment reads like an S-1 pitch deck and almost every claim is false or misleading.
The $16B is not profit its revenue, and I strongly suggest to learn the difference before investing. The $8B figure is EBITDA, also known as, earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, AND amortization.
For a company running around 9500 LEO satellites with a less than 5 year lifespan, depreciation is the business.
Their FCC filings show that about 500 satellites deorbited just in the first of half of 2025 alone, and they were all under 5 years old. The estimates for constellation sustenance are currently at $5-8B per year in satellite manufacturing (about $500K each) and launch costs are about $3M each. That is the real capex that EBITDA hides. Net income has never been disclosed and probably for good reason…
And lets not even mention the $19 billion EchoStar acquisition who is almost certainly! not included in the $8 billion EBITDA figures reported…
The most critical is that xAI is excluded from the number. XAI had a $1.46B net loss in Q3 2025 on just $107M in revenue, accelerating from $1B the prior quarter. They were burning $1B a month at the time of filing. This pig was then merged into SpaceX in Feb 2026 along with X/Twitter. So start with $8B EBITDA, subtract $5-8B satellite replacement, subtract $4-6B per year in xAI losses, subtract interest and taxes specially amortization and you are very very deep in the red. Once audited financials go public, every analyst with a calculator and a working brain will see this.
Also the revenue is largely circular… Over 70% of Falcon 9 launches in 2025 were internal Starlink missions so SpaceX is its own biggest customer. Starlink is 70% of total revenue. The so called “launch business” and “internet business” are the same capital cycle booked as two revenue lines 
Replace legacy ISPs? Really? Starlink has 0.2% residential market share after 5 years, with declining ARPU ($85 avg vs $120 US) and congestion already emerging at 10M subs. It is a niche rural/maritime ISP, not an AT&T killer.
And on the valuation? NVIDIA for example, who has an almost actual monopoly on AI chips, with $216B revenue, and $120B net income, at 56% margins, trades at 20x revenue. Tesla…. already considered absurdly overvalued at P/E 355, trades at 15x. Amazon at 3x. Meta at 10x. SpaceX wants 110x !! times revenue, with no audited financials, unknown net income, and a freshly absorbed money losing AI company. Even on bullish 2026 projected revenue of $24B, it’s 73x so nearly 4x NVIDIA multiple, and NVIDIA actually prints profit…
Starship on another side is very very far from routine… 11 flights, 5 failures. But notice on thing…In 2025 alone on Flight 7 the upper stage exploded from harmonic vibrations. Then Flight 8 exploded from propellant mixing. Flight 9 was destroyed on reentry…Ship 36 exploded on test stand …the first V3 booster exploded during pressure testing and was scrapped.
See a pattern here? Each failure from a different root cause. So multiple unsolved failure modes, not iteration. It has never reached orbit, never caught a ship, never demonstrated orbital refueling.
This offering is the most scandalous ever and the structure tells you everything. The filing is confidential, REAL financials only need to go public 15 days before the roadshow. Nasdaq is literally changing its index rules effective May 1 to allow a fast track Nasdaq-100 entry in 15 trading days. This is a rule that never existed before, and is made for this IPO, forcing billions in passive index buying on day one.
Public float is just 3% to 4%. This is one of the tightest floats for any major US IPO in modern history, and I have been following the markets for 20 years. They do 30% retail allocation what is three times the norm and tells you exactly who the target buyer is.
Given this level of rule bending, dont be shocked if the S-1 with real audited numbers quietly drops at the last legally permissible moment, maybe minutes before the IPO? ensuring hype and retail commitments are fully baked, before anyone really looks at what the financials actually say.
It will be a wildly successful IPO. Same playbook as Tesla 2010, just with more zeros and fewer functioning prototypes.”
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Lihtsalt taustaks, ESA avaldab igal aastal raporti ülemaailmse kosmosemajanduse seisust, tänavune pole veel vist väljas, aga eelmine on siin: https://space-economy.esa.int/documents/tJMabTj61KkdGVOtF6SKw6wGSxicen6ajUWamCG3.pdf
Pmst kogu kommertskosmonautika maailmaturg on 73 miljardit taala, kõik raketid, kõigi satelliitide ehitamine, jne. Ainuüksi Amazoni käibel on üks null rohkem 
Ja seal edasi on veel räägitud kokku kuivavatest erasektori investeeringutest jms.
Ehk kosmosega on sel aktsial pistmist umbes sama palju nagu saatel “Hallo, kosmos”.
George Noble:
“This is the most OUTRAGEOUS deal I’ve seen in my 45 years on Wall Street.
SpaceX just disclosed Musk’s new compensation package:
He gets up to 200 million super-voting shares if SpaceX hits a $7.5 trillion valuation, establishes a permanent human settlement of at least ONE MILLION people on Mars, and deploys roughly 100 terawatts of space-based computing power.
Let me put the 100 terawatts in perspective:
The entire electricity generation capacity of the United States is around 1.2 terawatts. The comp plan asks Musk to build more than 80x America’s entire power grid… in orbit.
This is a science fiction screenplay that somehow landed in front of the SEC.
But here’s why it actually matters for your portfolio…
The S-1 reportedly claims a $28.5 trillion total addressable market, with over 90 percent attributed to AI. CapeFearAdvisors flagged this one cleanly: when Palantir went public, it disclosed a $119 billion TAM and the SEC reviewed and accepted it.
SpaceX is claiming a market roughly 240x BIGGER.
Now let’s talk about what is actually being sold here:
Reported 2025 revenue is approximately $15.5 billion. Starlink delivers around $11 billion of that with healthy margins, and the launch business is genuinely dominant. The problem is xAI - the AI piece doing all the heavy lifting in the trillion-dollar valuation pitch.
xAI generated just $210 million of revenue in the first 3 quarters of 2025 while burning through $9.5 billion in cash.
Ben Brey and Rupert Mitchell - a former Fidelity portfolio manager and a former head of equity capital markets at Goldman and Citi between them - ran a serious discounted cash flow on the actual operating businesses and arrived at roughly $400 billion. Lawrence Fossi covered their work recently and the math holds up.
The IPO is being marketed at $1.75 TRILLION.
The gap between what these businesses support and what Musk is asking the public to pay is roughly $1.35 trillion of pure narrative.
Then layer on what we just learned last week…
The New York Times investigation revealed Musk personally borrowed $500 million from SpaceX between 2018 and 2020 at rates as low as 1%, while bank prime rates sat around 5%. The same SpaceX has been used to bail out SolarCity, prop up Tesla during cash crunches, and absorb xAI when the AI losses became unmanageable.
This is the same playbook he’s run for two decades.
Use a privately controlled entity as a personal piggy bank, and when the bills come due, find new investors to absorb the losses.
The IPO is structured to keep that game going FOREVER.
The Texas reincorporation strips away Delaware’s fiduciary protections. Controlled-company status on the Nasdaq eliminates independent board requirements. And retail is being offered up to 30% of the offering (3x the normal allocation) because the institutions who actually do the math are quietly stepping away.
Here is the part that finishes the case for me:
Roughly $40 billion of the IPO proceeds are already spoken for before a single dollar reaches operations. About $23 billion retires SpaceX debt. Another $17 billion retires the high-interest debt sitting on xAI and X.
This raise is not funding the future. It’s just plugging existing holes that retail investors will now own.
In my 45 years I’ve never seen a deal where the comp hurdle is colonizing another planet.
I’ve never seen a disclosed TAM that exceeds verified comparables by two orders of magnitude.
I’ve never seen a company asking the public to fund the retirement of debt incurred by separate private entities controlled by the same individual.
Every red flag I’ve watched precede a major bust over four decades is sitting in this prospectus, in plain sight.
The Tesla mispricing is being repeated on a far larger scale.
And this time the bag is being handed directly to retail.
Don’t be the one holding it.”
Source: This is the most OUTRAGEOUS deal I’ve seen in my 45 years on Wall Street.
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keskit ei koti mis üks george arvab. liiga pikk jutt ka. ei viitsi lugeda. TMI. 
mars + AI = best IPO ever! 
need to be there for the lore! pull up! 
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