Arvopaperi.fi arvamusküsitlus soome kuumimate aktsiate kohta annab 29. novembri hommiku seisuga sellise tuelmuse (viimane number antud häälte arv):
| 1. | Perlos | 52 |
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| 2. | Nokia | 39 |
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| 3. | Elektrobit | 36 |
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| 4. | UPM-Kymmene | 22 |
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| 5. | Nokian Renkaat | 21 |
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| 6. | Biotie | 21 |
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| 7. | Elcoteq | 15 |
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| 8. | Sampo | 15 |
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| 9. | PKC Group | 14 |
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| 10. | Fortum | 14 |
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Ise olen jälginud eelkõige Nokia, UPM, Elcoteqi ja Sampo käekäiku ning stabiilusese ja tõusupotentsiaali poolest annaks ehk oma hääle isegi Sampo aktsiale.
Tehniliselt on Sampo jõudnud dividendi-eelse tipu alla. Minu arvates on aktsia liiga kiiresti tõusnud, ootaks korrektsiooni:
Carnegie arvates on kuumimad Soome aktsiad hoopis alljärgnevad ...
1. Kesko
2. Nordea
3. Sampo
4. UPM-Kymmene
Rene, LHV Soome aktsiaturu spets, palus hinnangut BioTie kohta. Vaatasin natukene lähemalt firma tegevust ning tema ravimiportfelli. Vaatamata sellele, et aktsia hind on kiiresti kukkunud, ei tõtta meie seda ostma. Ravimiportfell koosneb peamiselt ühest ravimist NALMEFENE, mida arendatakse kahe indikatsiooni: mängu- ja alkoholisõltuvuse raviks.
Hiljuti tõi Forest USAs turule sarnase ravimi ning sellelt midagi suurt ei loodeta (max müük 75-100 miljonit aastas). Mängusõltuvuse ravimilt ei tasu ka väga palju oodata, kuna hiljuti sõlmiti koostööleping Somaxon Pharmaceuticals, kes maksis $3 miljonit kohe ja edaspidi on võimalus saada veel $10 miljonit, pluss veel tulu ravimi müügilt. Arvestades seda, kui vähe ravimi eest maksti, siis ei ootaks ka sellelt midagi suurt.
Ei plaani aktsiat ise osta ega lisada LHV Tervishoiuportfelli.
Usun endiselt PMJi ja sama paistab tegevat ka Erkki Etola, kes 1.dets seisuga pole müünud ühtegi aktsiat oma positsioonist. 0,6€ tundub tõesti olevat toetustasemeks ja antud tasemelt tasuks positsiooni lisada, siiski ei tohiks positsioon olla suure osakaaluga portfellist.
Carnegie arvab Põhjamaade aktsiate kohta nii (minu:
For 2005, we see a number of reasons to be bullish on equities. Valuations are highly supportive and will be perceived as being even lower under the new accounting rules. Furthermore, leading economic indicators are expected to bottom out next summer. Oil and other raw material prices are set to decline, the USD should stabilise, interest rates are expected to remain low and liquidity should be strong.
Thus, we expect a bull market during 2005, and it is easy to justify a 25% increase for the MSCI Nordic index.
For the Nordic market, the P/E(05e) is 13.8x and the earnings yield ratio – the current 10-year bond yield relative to the inverted P/E(05e) – is just 0.54. This means that the Nordic market could absorb 45% lower earnings estimates for 2005 or 335bps higher bond yields without becoming overvalued.
Still, the current extremely attractive valuations mean that the safety margin is huge. Assuming a rather negative scenario where earnings estimates for 2005 are cut by 15% and bond yields increase by 100bps, the P/E(05e) would increase to 16.2x while the earnings yield ratio based on earnings for 2005 would increase to 0.80. This means that there is still 25% upside potential for the Nordic stock market assuming that the earnings yield ratio reaches the equilibrium level of 1.0.
In the Q1(05) reports, listed European companies will have to use new accounting rules, the IFRS, at group level Under the new accounting rules, headline EPS will be lifted as goodwill amortisation ceases, which means that P/Es will decline. In theory, the changes in EPS measures due to new goodwill rules should not affect share prices, but valuations will be perceived as even lower under the new accounting rules and could therefore have a positive impact on share prices.
Based on the new accounting rules, the Nordic P/E(05e) will decline from 13.8x to below 13x. The largest effect will be seen in the Commercial Services & Supplies and Software & Services sectors, but sizeable effects will also be seen in the Consumer Staples, Telecom Services, Consumer Discretionary and Capital Goods sectors.
Carnegie arvab Põhjamaade aktsiate kohta nii:
For 2005, we see a number of reasons to be bullish on equities. Valuations are highly supportive and will be perceived as being even lower under the new accounting rules. Furthermore, leading economic indicators are expected to bottom out next summer. Oil and other raw material prices are set to decline, the USD should stabilise, interest rates are expected to remain low and liquidity should be strong.
Thus, we expect a bull market during 2005, and it is easy to justify a 25% increase for the MSCI Nordic index.
For the Nordic market, the P/E(05e) is 13.8x and the earnings yield ratio – the current 10-year bond yield relative to the inverted P/E(05e) – is just 0.54. This means that the Nordic market could absorb 45% lower earnings estimates for 2005 or 335bps higher bond yields without becoming overvalued.
Still, the current extremely attractive valuations mean that the safety margin is huge. Assuming a rather negative scenario where earnings estimates for 2005 are cut by 15% and bond yields increase by 100bps, the P/E(05e) would increase to 16.2x while the earnings yield ratio based on earnings for 2005 would increase to 0.80. This means that there is still 25% upside potential for the Nordic stock market assuming that the earnings yield ratio reaches the equilibrium level of 1.0.
In the Q1(05) reports, listed European companies will have to use new accounting rules, the IFRS, at group level Under the new accounting rules, headline EPS will be lifted as goodwill amortisation ceases, which means that P/Es will decline. In theory, the changes in EPS measures due to new goodwill rules should not affect share prices, but valuations will be perceived as even lower under the new accounting rules and could therefore have a positive impact on share prices.
Based on the new accounting rules, the Nordic P/E(05e) will decline from 13.8x to below 13x. The largest effect will be seen in the Commercial Services & Supplies and Software & Services sectors, but sizeable effects will also be seen in the Consumer Staples, Telecom Services, Consumer Discretionary and