Merrill Lynch
Tänased analüüsimajade reitingumuutused ja kommentaarid USA ettevõtete kohta:
Barrick Gold (ABX) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at HSBC Securities
BHP Billiton (BHP) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup
Comerica (CMA) upgraded to Buy at Wunderlich; tgt raised to $65
Schlumberger (SLB) upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at Iberia
KB Home (KBH) downgraded to Sector Perform at RBC Capital Mkts; tgt lowered to $17
Marsh McLennan (MMC) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Macquarie; tgt lowered to $57 from $58
Yahoo! (YHOO) downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC Capital Mkts
Alcoa (AA) target raised to $20 at Stifel ahead of earnings on October 8; firm raises Q3 EPS above consensus
Audience (ADNC) target lowered to $8 at Chardan Capital Markets
Edwards Lifesciences (EW) target raised to $120 from $95 at Piper Jaffray; Overweight
Gilead Sciences (GILD) target raised to $120 at Needham
Barrick Gold (ABX) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at HSBC Securities
BHP Billiton (BHP) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup
Comerica (CMA) upgraded to Buy at Wunderlich; tgt raised to $65
Schlumberger (SLB) upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at Iberia
KB Home (KBH) downgraded to Sector Perform at RBC Capital Mkts; tgt lowered to $17
Marsh McLennan (MMC) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Macquarie; tgt lowered to $57 from $58
Yahoo! (YHOO) downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC Capital Mkts
Alcoa (AA) target raised to $20 at Stifel ahead of earnings on October 8; firm raises Q3 EPS above consensus
Audience (ADNC) target lowered to $8 at Chardan Capital Markets
Edwards Lifesciences (EW) target raised to $120 from $95 at Piper Jaffray; Overweight
Gilead Sciences (GILD) target raised to $120 at Needham
Tänased reitingute muudatused
Telenet Raised to Strong Buy vs Outperform at Raymond James; PT Eu47 to 50 (Close 42,29)
Bwin.Party Cut to Underperform vs Neutral at BofAML
Altice Rated New Sell at Citi, PT Eu37 (Close 42,17)
Axfood Raised to Buy vs Neutral at Swedbank; PT SEK350 to 400 (Close 345,7)
DNO Raised to Buy vs Neutral at Swedbank; PT Nok22 to 28 (Close 19,56)
Balfour Beatty Upgraded to Buy at Deutsche Bank on Valuation; PT raised to 270p from 245p (Close 220,2)
• Deutsche Bank says share price correction overdone, stock an attractive valuation story, implied valuation of Construction business negative, seems too harsh
• Sees valuation support from disposal of Parsons Brinkerhoff, PPP-concessions asset portfolio, strong dividend yield
William Demant Raised to Neutral vs Underweight at HSBC; PT Dkk440 to 470 (Close 450,0)
GN Store Nord Rated New Overweight at HSBC, PT Dk160 (Close 124,5)
Amplifon Rated New Overweight at HSBC, PT Eu5.7 (Close 4,39)
Vallourec Raised to Neutral vs Underweight at JPMorgan; PT Eu32 to 36 (Close 35,19)
• Sees support from FX (mainly euro/dollar) offsetting risk of further downside to 2014 Ebitda est. due to weakening iron ore prices, JPMorgan says in note today.
• Most negatives will materialize in 2H 2014 incl. Petrobras, Aramco destocking, impacting Brazil, Middle East and North Africa: JPMorgan
• May see M-T catalyst from rise in U.S. OCTG price, providing support in 1H 2015; pressure could hit mkt from 2H 2015 when new U.S. capacity comes onstream, adding margin pressure
• Trades at 6.5x EV/Ebitda on JPM’s 2015 Ebitda est.; keeps 2014/2015 Ebitda ests. unchanged
European Utilities Raised to Benchmark at Credit Suisse
UK Real Estate Cut to Underweight vs Benchmark: Credit Suisse
TDC Cut to Neutral vs Buy at Nomura; PT Dkk52 to 50 (Close 44,98)
Bankinter Cut to Underweight vs Equalweight at Morgan Stanley; PT Eu 6,25 (Close 6,8)
Aixtron Raised to Overweight vs Equalweight at Morgan Stanley; PT Eu11,5 to 14,4 (Close 11,23)
• While industry fundamentals have been improving for a while, we have had reservations about Aixtron's market position. The order of 50 next generation tools by large Chinese customer San'an changes that, and we believe marks a turning point for the stock.
• San'an had ordered 50 units of Aixtron's (as yet unannounced) next generation MOCVD tool. San'an has been one of two companies involved in extensive testing of the tool in recent months, so the order is based on empirical results.
Telefonica Deutschland Raised to Buy vs Neutral at Citi
Altarea Cogedim Raised to Buy vs Hold at SocGen; PT eu149 to 158 (Close 127,55)
Klepierre Raised to Buy vs Hold at SocGen; PT Eu39 to 42 (Close 34,08)
Eurocommercial Properties Raised to Buy vs Hold at SocGen; PT Eu38 to 41 (Close 35,2)
British Land Raised to Buy vs Hold at SocGen; PT 740p to 780p (Close 691,5)
Kering Raised to Outperform vs Neutral at Credit Suisse; PT Eu156 to 180 (Close 158,1)
• We see Kering as a relative outperformer in a sector where we remain cautious. This is thanks to a combination of: (a) realistic growth expectations for Gucci and Puma, (b) above-average long-term potential for BV and SL, and (c) attractive CFROI® underpinned by a relatively better picture on off-B/S lease commitments vs. peers.
Great Portland Estates Raised to Hold vs Sell at SocGen
INTU Properties Cut to Sell vs Hold at SocGen
Gecina Raised to Buy vs Hold at SocGen; PT Eu 108 to 123 (Close 102,3)
Fonciere Lyonnaise Raised to Buy vs Hold at SocGen; PT Eu 40 to 43 (Close 38,2)
Icade Raised to Buy vs Hold at SocGen; PT 75 to 81 (Close Eu65,8)
Hennes & Mauritz Cut to Hold vs Buy at SocGen; PT Sek357 to 315 (Close 300,5)
Seadrill Cut to Sell vs Neutral at Goldman; PT Nok232 to 155 (Close 173,5)
Odfjell Drilling Cut to Sell vs Neutral at Goldman; PT Nok30,6 to 23,0 (Close 27,5)
Philips Raised to Overweight vs Equalweight at Morgan Stanley; PT Eu25 to 32,4
• Philips HealthTech to bring higher returns, less volatility with consumer part “exceptional,” healthcare side “reasonably good,” Morgan Stanley says in note.
• Says HealthTech’s implied value is too low; sees limited synergy between consumer, professional medical products
• Est. Consumer Lifestyle at middle of 2016 margin tärget range in 2015
• Expects volatility in Lighting results; volume, price pressures in Light Sources, Electronics segment to limit margin potential
Air France-KLM Cut to Underperform vs Hold at Jefferies; PT Eu 7,7 to 6,7 (Close 7,62)
• Unclear how AF-KLM can placate pilots; strike adds ambiguity to Perform 2020 strategic plan; ~10% share drop since Sept. 11 CMD “may not be enough”
• Expect profit target update with traffic on Oct. 8
• Strike is opportunity for EasyJet, no. 2 in French mkt, may give strong close to financial year; buying opportunity ahead of Oct. 3 trading update: Jefferies
Telenet Raised to Strong Buy vs Outperform at Raymond James; PT Eu47 to 50 (Close 42,29)
Bwin.Party Cut to Underperform vs Neutral at BofAML
Altice Rated New Sell at Citi, PT Eu37 (Close 42,17)
Axfood Raised to Buy vs Neutral at Swedbank; PT SEK350 to 400 (Close 345,7)
DNO Raised to Buy vs Neutral at Swedbank; PT Nok22 to 28 (Close 19,56)
Balfour Beatty Upgraded to Buy at Deutsche Bank on Valuation; PT raised to 270p from 245p (Close 220,2)
• Deutsche Bank says share price correction overdone, stock an attractive valuation story, implied valuation of Construction business negative, seems too harsh
• Sees valuation support from disposal of Parsons Brinkerhoff, PPP-concessions asset portfolio, strong dividend yield
William Demant Raised to Neutral vs Underweight at HSBC; PT Dkk440 to 470 (Close 450,0)
GN Store Nord Rated New Overweight at HSBC, PT Dk160 (Close 124,5)
Amplifon Rated New Overweight at HSBC, PT Eu5.7 (Close 4,39)
Vallourec Raised to Neutral vs Underweight at JPMorgan; PT Eu32 to 36 (Close 35,19)
• Sees support from FX (mainly euro/dollar) offsetting risk of further downside to 2014 Ebitda est. due to weakening iron ore prices, JPMorgan says in note today.
• Most negatives will materialize in 2H 2014 incl. Petrobras, Aramco destocking, impacting Brazil, Middle East and North Africa: JPMorgan
• May see M-T catalyst from rise in U.S. OCTG price, providing support in 1H 2015; pressure could hit mkt from 2H 2015 when new U.S. capacity comes onstream, adding margin pressure
• Trades at 6.5x EV/Ebitda on JPM’s 2015 Ebitda est.; keeps 2014/2015 Ebitda ests. unchanged
European Utilities Raised to Benchmark at Credit Suisse
UK Real Estate Cut to Underweight vs Benchmark: Credit Suisse
TDC Cut to Neutral vs Buy at Nomura; PT Dkk52 to 50 (Close 44,98)
Bankinter Cut to Underweight vs Equalweight at Morgan Stanley; PT Eu 6,25 (Close 6,8)
Aixtron Raised to Overweight vs Equalweight at Morgan Stanley; PT Eu11,5 to 14,4 (Close 11,23)
• While industry fundamentals have been improving for a while, we have had reservations about Aixtron's market position. The order of 50 next generation tools by large Chinese customer San'an changes that, and we believe marks a turning point for the stock.
• San'an had ordered 50 units of Aixtron's (as yet unannounced) next generation MOCVD tool. San'an has been one of two companies involved in extensive testing of the tool in recent months, so the order is based on empirical results.
Telefonica Deutschland Raised to Buy vs Neutral at Citi
Altarea Cogedim Raised to Buy vs Hold at SocGen; PT eu149 to 158 (Close 127,55)
Klepierre Raised to Buy vs Hold at SocGen; PT Eu39 to 42 (Close 34,08)
Eurocommercial Properties Raised to Buy vs Hold at SocGen; PT Eu38 to 41 (Close 35,2)
British Land Raised to Buy vs Hold at SocGen; PT 740p to 780p (Close 691,5)
Kering Raised to Outperform vs Neutral at Credit Suisse; PT Eu156 to 180 (Close 158,1)
• We see Kering as a relative outperformer in a sector where we remain cautious. This is thanks to a combination of: (a) realistic growth expectations for Gucci and Puma, (b) above-average long-term potential for BV and SL, and (c) attractive CFROI® underpinned by a relatively better picture on off-B/S lease commitments vs. peers.
Great Portland Estates Raised to Hold vs Sell at SocGen
INTU Properties Cut to Sell vs Hold at SocGen
Gecina Raised to Buy vs Hold at SocGen; PT Eu 108 to 123 (Close 102,3)
Fonciere Lyonnaise Raised to Buy vs Hold at SocGen; PT Eu 40 to 43 (Close 38,2)
Icade Raised to Buy vs Hold at SocGen; PT 75 to 81 (Close Eu65,8)
Hennes & Mauritz Cut to Hold vs Buy at SocGen; PT Sek357 to 315 (Close 300,5)
Seadrill Cut to Sell vs Neutral at Goldman; PT Nok232 to 155 (Close 173,5)
Odfjell Drilling Cut to Sell vs Neutral at Goldman; PT Nok30,6 to 23,0 (Close 27,5)
Philips Raised to Overweight vs Equalweight at Morgan Stanley; PT Eu25 to 32,4
• Philips HealthTech to bring higher returns, less volatility with consumer part “exceptional,” healthcare side “reasonably good,” Morgan Stanley says in note.
• Says HealthTech’s implied value is too low; sees limited synergy between consumer, professional medical products
• Est. Consumer Lifestyle at middle of 2016 margin tärget range in 2015
• Expects volatility in Lighting results; volume, price pressures in Light Sources, Electronics segment to limit margin potential
Air France-KLM Cut to Underperform vs Hold at Jefferies; PT Eu 7,7 to 6,7 (Close 7,62)
• Unclear how AF-KLM can placate pilots; strike adds ambiguity to Perform 2020 strategic plan; ~10% share drop since Sept. 11 CMD “may not be enough”
• Expect profit target update with traffic on Oct. 8
• Strike is opportunity for EasyJet, no. 2 in French mkt, may give strong close to financial year; buying opportunity ahead of Oct. 3 trading update: Jefferies
Tänased analüüsimajade reitingumuutused ja kommentaarid USA ettevõtete kohta:
Altria (MO) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA/Merrill
Dominion (D) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Argus
NIKE (NKE) upgraded to Buy at Janney; tgt raised to $93
Northrop Grumman (NOC) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank; tgt raised to $145 from $140
Textron (TXT) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Stifel
Philip Morris International (PM) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA/Merrill
Harley-Davidson (HOG) initiated with a Hold at Wunderlich; tgt $57
Micron (MU) target raised to $45 from $40 at Raymond James, Strong Buy; target raised to $60 from $50 at Needham, Buy; target raised to $43 from $41 at Piper Jaffray, Overweight
NIKE (NKE) target raised to $100 from $90 at Barclays; Overweight
Altria (MO) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA/Merrill
Dominion (D) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Argus
NIKE (NKE) upgraded to Buy at Janney; tgt raised to $93
Northrop Grumman (NOC) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank; tgt raised to $145 from $140
Textron (TXT) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Stifel
Philip Morris International (PM) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA/Merrill
Harley-Davidson (HOG) initiated with a Hold at Wunderlich; tgt $57
Micron (MU) target raised to $45 from $40 at Raymond James, Strong Buy; target raised to $60 from $50 at Needham, Buy; target raised to $43 from $41 at Piper Jaffray, Overweight
NIKE (NKE) target raised to $100 from $90 at Barclays; Overweight
Mõned tänased reitingute muudatused Euroopas:
Tullow Oil Raised to Buy vs Neutral at BofAML
Morgan Advanced Cut to Underperform vs Neutral at BofAML
Rotork Upgraded to Buy at BofAML, Sees Sector Leading Growth (Close 2762p)
• Rotork upgraded to buy from neutral at BofAML, says co. has one of most attractive business models in sector, balance sheet potential and relatively modest expectations for next year.
• BofAML says most of co.’s exposure in more stable mid and downstream markets, sees sector leading growth
• Says valuation multiples at relative lows vs sector
RTL Group Cut to Hold vs Add at Commerzbank; PT Eu93 to 75 (Close 69,5)
Adidas Cut to Hold vs Buy at Commerzbank; PT $68 to 63 (60,5)
Sistema Cut to Underperform vs Neutral at Credit Suisse; PT $11 to 7 (Close 9,2)
• On our estimates, the market is currently pricing in loss of Bashkortostan assets but not liability for cUS$3.8bn in backdated dividends.
IGD Cut to Sell vs Buy at SocGen; PT Eu0,89 to 0,9 (Close 0,99)
Vallourec Raised to Hold vs Sell at SocGen; PT Eu32 to 35 (Close 35,74)
Novatek Raised to Buy vs Hold at SocGen; PT $120 (Close 106,6)
Modern Times Group Cut to Neutral vs Buy at UBS
Micro Focus Raised to Buy vs Neutral at UBS
TNT Express Cut to Neutral vs Buy at UBS
Just Eat Removed From Goldman Conviction Buy List, Stays Buy; PT 360p to 400 (Close 306,2)
Philips Raised to Buy vs Hold at ING; PT Eu25 to 29 (Close 25,18)
Vectura Rated New Overweight at Barclays; PT 171p (Close 130,25)
Bashneft Cut to Equalweight vs Overweight at Barclays
Petrofac Raised to Outperform vs Neutral at Credit Suisse; PT 1340p (Close 1010)
• Petrofac shares have been too heavily de-rated and at close to 1000p (a 4 year low) we feel they offer compelling value, with a robust balance of risk vs reward. The shares now trade on just 8.2x 2015E PE, a 20% discount to the broader European OFS sector and a 35% discount to their historic average. Then on a 2015E EV/EBITDA of 5.1x the shares are on a 15% sector-relative discount and a 30% discount to their historic average.
• Valuation is the main driver. But other factors are material – backlog and tendering outlook are strong, and Petrofac is more defensive than many E&C peers by having limited offshore exposure, a significant proportion of NOC clients, and an excellent record for winning and executing onshore lump sum projects. Recent director dealing is also supportive, and the CEO's 18% stake plus a solid balance sheet underpin sustained dividend payout.
Allianz Cut to Neutral vs Outperform at Credit Suisse; PT eu148 to 139 (Close 129,9)
• Post the surprise resignation of Bill Gross from PIMCO on Friday 26 September, we downgrade Allianz to Neutral. Whilst the immediate fall in the shares has already reflected an expectation of significant potential outflows, we expect uncertainty to linger until the market can get greater visibility on the ultimate loss of AUM and also any impact on costs within PIMCO as management seeks to compensate for the damage of the departure and founder. Whilst we expect earnings and cash to be reduced, we do not see it as sufficient to prevent a material increase in capital return to shareholders, albeit with some reduction in the ultimate level.
Tullow Oil Raised to Buy vs Neutral at BofAML
Morgan Advanced Cut to Underperform vs Neutral at BofAML
Rotork Upgraded to Buy at BofAML, Sees Sector Leading Growth (Close 2762p)
• Rotork upgraded to buy from neutral at BofAML, says co. has one of most attractive business models in sector, balance sheet potential and relatively modest expectations for next year.
• BofAML says most of co.’s exposure in more stable mid and downstream markets, sees sector leading growth
• Says valuation multiples at relative lows vs sector
RTL Group Cut to Hold vs Add at Commerzbank; PT Eu93 to 75 (Close 69,5)
Adidas Cut to Hold vs Buy at Commerzbank; PT $68 to 63 (60,5)
Sistema Cut to Underperform vs Neutral at Credit Suisse; PT $11 to 7 (Close 9,2)
• On our estimates, the market is currently pricing in loss of Bashkortostan assets but not liability for cUS$3.8bn in backdated dividends.
IGD Cut to Sell vs Buy at SocGen; PT Eu0,89 to 0,9 (Close 0,99)
Vallourec Raised to Hold vs Sell at SocGen; PT Eu32 to 35 (Close 35,74)
Novatek Raised to Buy vs Hold at SocGen; PT $120 (Close 106,6)
Modern Times Group Cut to Neutral vs Buy at UBS
Micro Focus Raised to Buy vs Neutral at UBS
TNT Express Cut to Neutral vs Buy at UBS
Just Eat Removed From Goldman Conviction Buy List, Stays Buy; PT 360p to 400 (Close 306,2)
Philips Raised to Buy vs Hold at ING; PT Eu25 to 29 (Close 25,18)
Vectura Rated New Overweight at Barclays; PT 171p (Close 130,25)
Bashneft Cut to Equalweight vs Overweight at Barclays
Petrofac Raised to Outperform vs Neutral at Credit Suisse; PT 1340p (Close 1010)
• Petrofac shares have been too heavily de-rated and at close to 1000p (a 4 year low) we feel they offer compelling value, with a robust balance of risk vs reward. The shares now trade on just 8.2x 2015E PE, a 20% discount to the broader European OFS sector and a 35% discount to their historic average. Then on a 2015E EV/EBITDA of 5.1x the shares are on a 15% sector-relative discount and a 30% discount to their historic average.
• Valuation is the main driver. But other factors are material – backlog and tendering outlook are strong, and Petrofac is more defensive than many E&C peers by having limited offshore exposure, a significant proportion of NOC clients, and an excellent record for winning and executing onshore lump sum projects. Recent director dealing is also supportive, and the CEO's 18% stake plus a solid balance sheet underpin sustained dividend payout.
Allianz Cut to Neutral vs Outperform at Credit Suisse; PT eu148 to 139 (Close 129,9)
• Post the surprise resignation of Bill Gross from PIMCO on Friday 26 September, we downgrade Allianz to Neutral. Whilst the immediate fall in the shares has already reflected an expectation of significant potential outflows, we expect uncertainty to linger until the market can get greater visibility on the ultimate loss of AUM and also any impact on costs within PIMCO as management seeks to compensate for the damage of the departure and founder. Whilst we expect earnings and cash to be reduced, we do not see it as sufficient to prevent a material increase in capital return to shareholders, albeit with some reduction in the ultimate level.
Tänased analüüsimajade reitingumuutused ja kommentaarid USA ettevõtete kohta:
Baidu.com (BIDU) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS
Boston Properties (BXP) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at ISI Group
FedEx upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Cowen
NIKE (NKE) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse; tgt raised to $100 from $80
Waste Mgmt (WM) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Wedbush
Yahoo! (YHOO) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Needham; tgt $48
F5 Networks (FFIV) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Robert W. Baird
Celgene (CELG) target raised to $115 at RBC Capital Mkts
Deere (DE) target lowered to $95 from $98 at Credit Suisse; maintain Outperform
EMC (EMC) target raised to $33 at Oppenheimer
Baidu.com (BIDU) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS
Boston Properties (BXP) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at ISI Group
FedEx upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Cowen
NIKE (NKE) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse; tgt raised to $100 from $80
Waste Mgmt (WM) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Wedbush
Yahoo! (YHOO) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Needham; tgt $48
F5 Networks (FFIV) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Robert W. Baird
Celgene (CELG) target raised to $115 at RBC Capital Mkts
Deere (DE) target lowered to $95 from $98 at Credit Suisse; maintain Outperform
EMC (EMC) target raised to $33 at Oppenheimer
Tänased reitingute muudatused Euroopas:
ARM Cut to Underperform vs Marketperform at Bernstein; PT 750p (Close 924,5)
Smiths Upgraded to Overweight at JPMorgan on Detection Self-Help; PT 1317p to 1430p (Close 1250)
• JPMorgan expects Detection performance to improve on back of cost-cutting measures, regulatory changes, new management; says FX rates less likely to be a drag on profitability in coming quarters.
• Says self-help driven improvements in Detection should be main driver of EPS growth in 2015
• Sees estimate downgrades for Smiths Group coming to an end
Shell Raised to Outperform vs Marketperform at Bernstein; Pt Eu28 to 33,5 (Close 30,2)
Leonteq Rated New Outperform at Credit Suisse, PT Chf285 (Close 194,5)
• We believe that (1) potential turnover from white labelling (WL) partners could amount to CHF38.5bn by FY2018 (2013: CHF7.5bn). We assume Leonteq should be able to onboard around seven more WL partners, mostly in 2016-2018. (2) Only 50% of the growth potential is priced in, according to our sensitivity analysis. We think investors underestimate the mid-term growth prospects.
Asia Resource Minerals Cut to Underweight vs Neutral: JPMorgan; Pt 64p to 38p (Close 69,3)
Eurobank Rated New Sell at UBS, PT Eu0.31 (Close 0,31)
Piraeus Rated New Neutral at UBS, PT Eu1.45 (Close 1,27)
Alpha Bank Rated New Neutral at UBS, PT Eu0.68 (Close 0,6)
Anglo American, Ferrexpo Added to UBS Least Preferred List
PGS Raised to Neutral vs Sell at UBS
Ferrexpo Cut to Sell vs Neutral at UBS
Deutsche Wohnen Rated New Hold at SocGen, PT Eu19 (Close 16,9)
MTU Aero Engines Raised to Buy vs Hold at Berenberg; PT Eu71,8 to 74,8 (Close 65,3)
London Mining Cut to Underweight vs Equalweight at Barclays
Nexans Raised to Neutral From Underperform at Credit Suisse
Orlen Rated New Underweight at JPMorgan; PT Pln 38,0 (Close 41,37)
Associated British Foods Raised to Outperform at Credit Suisse; PT 3000p (Close 2563)
• Primark has been key to AB Foods share price but less so earnings; now with struggles in sugar
• Primark accounts for >60% of profit, Credit Suisse says in note.
• Sees significant EPS growth (+15%) in 2015/16 as Primark openings accelerate with U.S. entry, recovery in Ingredients, Sugar profits to “improve smartly”
• Tough to find better structural growth story than Primark; ests. sales outside U.K./Ireland GBP1.6b by end Sept. 2014
• Following Inditex/H&M growth trajectory suggests intl. sales to double in 3 years, by 2024 may top GBP10b; says U.S. delivery is key
• Rollout shouldn’t dilute margins; says Northern Continental Europe already seeing double digit margins: Credit Suisse
ARM Cut to Underperform vs Marketperform at Bernstein; PT 750p (Close 924,5)
Smiths Upgraded to Overweight at JPMorgan on Detection Self-Help; PT 1317p to 1430p (Close 1250)
• JPMorgan expects Detection performance to improve on back of cost-cutting measures, regulatory changes, new management; says FX rates less likely to be a drag on profitability in coming quarters.
• Says self-help driven improvements in Detection should be main driver of EPS growth in 2015
• Sees estimate downgrades for Smiths Group coming to an end
Shell Raised to Outperform vs Marketperform at Bernstein; Pt Eu28 to 33,5 (Close 30,2)
Leonteq Rated New Outperform at Credit Suisse, PT Chf285 (Close 194,5)
• We believe that (1) potential turnover from white labelling (WL) partners could amount to CHF38.5bn by FY2018 (2013: CHF7.5bn). We assume Leonteq should be able to onboard around seven more WL partners, mostly in 2016-2018. (2) Only 50% of the growth potential is priced in, according to our sensitivity analysis. We think investors underestimate the mid-term growth prospects.
Asia Resource Minerals Cut to Underweight vs Neutral: JPMorgan; Pt 64p to 38p (Close 69,3)
Eurobank Rated New Sell at UBS, PT Eu0.31 (Close 0,31)
Piraeus Rated New Neutral at UBS, PT Eu1.45 (Close 1,27)
Alpha Bank Rated New Neutral at UBS, PT Eu0.68 (Close 0,6)
Anglo American, Ferrexpo Added to UBS Least Preferred List
PGS Raised to Neutral vs Sell at UBS
Ferrexpo Cut to Sell vs Neutral at UBS
Deutsche Wohnen Rated New Hold at SocGen, PT Eu19 (Close 16,9)
MTU Aero Engines Raised to Buy vs Hold at Berenberg; PT Eu71,8 to 74,8 (Close 65,3)
London Mining Cut to Underweight vs Equalweight at Barclays
Nexans Raised to Neutral From Underperform at Credit Suisse
Orlen Rated New Underweight at JPMorgan; PT Pln 38,0 (Close 41,37)
Associated British Foods Raised to Outperform at Credit Suisse; PT 3000p (Close 2563)
• Primark has been key to AB Foods share price but less so earnings; now with struggles in sugar
• Primark accounts for >60% of profit, Credit Suisse says in note.
• Sees significant EPS growth (+15%) in 2015/16 as Primark openings accelerate with U.S. entry, recovery in Ingredients, Sugar profits to “improve smartly”
• Tough to find better structural growth story than Primark; ests. sales outside U.K./Ireland GBP1.6b by end Sept. 2014
• Following Inditex/H&M growth trajectory suggests intl. sales to double in 3 years, by 2024 may top GBP10b; says U.S. delivery is key
• Rollout shouldn’t dilute margins; says Northern Continental Europe already seeing double digit margins: Credit Suisse
Tänased analüüsimajade reitingumuutused ja kommentaarid USA ettevõtete kohta:
Alcoa (AA) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA/Merrill
Computer Sciences (CSC) upgraded to Outperform from Mkt Perform at Raymond James
Lockheed Martin (LMT) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Stifel
NiSource (NI) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse; tgt raised to $50 from $41
Raytheon (RTN) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Stifel
Ford Motor (F) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Craig Hallum; tgt $17
Kellogg (K) downgraded to Underweight from Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley
Apple (AAPL) initiated with a Hold at Jefferies; tgt $110
AutoZone (AZO) initiated with a Mkt Perform at William Blair
CDW (CDW) initiated with a Outperform at RBC Capital Mkts
Facebook (FB) target raised to $95 from $90 at Evercore; maintain Overweight
Ford Motor (F) target lowered to $16 at RBC Capital Mkts
Alcoa (AA) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA/Merrill
Computer Sciences (CSC) upgraded to Outperform from Mkt Perform at Raymond James
Lockheed Martin (LMT) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Stifel
NiSource (NI) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse; tgt raised to $50 from $41
Raytheon (RTN) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Stifel
Ford Motor (F) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Craig Hallum; tgt $17
Kellogg (K) downgraded to Underweight from Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley
Apple (AAPL) initiated with a Hold at Jefferies; tgt $110
AutoZone (AZO) initiated with a Mkt Perform at William Blair
CDW (CDW) initiated with a Outperform at RBC Capital Mkts
Facebook (FB) target raised to $95 from $90 at Evercore; maintain Overweight
Ford Motor (F) target lowered to $16 at RBC Capital Mkts
Tänase reitingute muudatused Euroopas:
Alrosa Raised to Buy vs Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT Rub50,1 to 52,0 (Close 35,51)
Crest Nicholson Rated New Hold at Deutsche Bank, PT 367p (Close 325,0)
Sonova Cut to Underperform vs Buy at BofAML
GN Store Nord Raised to Buy at BofAML
Zoopla Property Rated New Neutral at Exane, PT 240p (Close 236,6)
Coloplast Raised to Buy From Hold at Nordea; PT Dkk565 (Close 494,0)
Eutelsat Reinstated Neutral at BofAML, PT Eu30 (Close 25,57)
SES Reinstated Buy at BofAML, PT Eu35 (Close 27,38)
Aker Solutions Rated New Sell at UBS, PT Nk60 (Close 64,0)
Sodexo Added to UBS Least Preferred List
Edenred Raised to Buy vs Neutral at UBS
Edenred Added to UBS Most Preferred List
Facc AG Rated New Buy at UBS, PT Eu9.5 (Close 8,04)
Royal Mail Raised to Neutral vs Sell at UBS
Zoopla Rated New Neutral at Goldman, PT 242p (Close 236,6)
Galp Energia Cut to Neutral vs Outperform at Credit Suisse
Aker Solutions Rated New Buy at Goldman, PT Nok77.5 (Close 64,0)
SSP Rated New Overweight at JPMorgan, PT 300p (Close 259,7)
MTU Aero Raised to Neutral vs Underweight at JPMorgan; PT Eu69,0 (Close 67,6)
Balfour Beatty Raised to Neutral vs Underweight at JPMorgan; PT 220p to 200p (Close 188,6)
• JPMorgan says in note not more positive on Balfour Beatty, still sees material earnings risk short-term, no visibility on management, future strategy, dividends or buyback guarantee.
• Cuts EPS ests. 46% for 2014, 19% for 2015, still sees some risk to new ests.
• Says long-term valuation supportive though not an upside driver, cuts PT to 200p from 220p
BMW Raised to Overweight vs Equalweight at Morgan Stanley; PT Eu86 to 95 (Close 86,1)
• BMW is the highest quality play in EU Autos, and defensive appeal in an uncertain industry backdrop now makes it our only OW. Despite consistent EPS momentum the stock has de-rated on China fears, which looks overdone: even if 50% of import profit is lost, we think BMW can sustain 8% Auto margins
Daily Mail Cut to Equalweight vs Overweight at Morgan Stanley
DSV Cut to Equalweight vs Overweight at Barclays; PT Dkk160 to 182 (Close 166,6)
Kuehne & Nagel Raised to Overweight vs Equalweight at Barclays; PT Sfr105 to 137 (Close 120,6)
Panalpina Raised to Overweight vs Equalweight at Barclays; PT Sfr95 to 154 (Close 120,1)
Unibail-Rodamco Raised to Overweight at HSBC; PT Eu210,0 to 240,0 (Close 203,7
Remain Positive on S. Europe Utilities, Enel Top Pick: Barclays
• Sector no longer extremely cheap on multiples although remain positive on deep value, self-help stories, Barclays says in note on S. European utilities.
• Barclays: Enel (overweight) remains top pick on potential to create value from operational changes, holding co. restructuring
• Says Enel trades at ~20% discount to broader utilities sector on Barclays ests. for 2015/2016; shrs reflect transition risks (which should be completed within 6 months), but not expected “solid turnaround” in erns
• Discount set to disappear as soon as restructuring is completed
• Preferred picks among regulated firms are Snam, Enagas, REN (all overweight); should be supported in 2015 by upside potential on divs., extra premiums in yields vs bond mkt
Alrosa Raised to Buy vs Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT Rub50,1 to 52,0 (Close 35,51)
Crest Nicholson Rated New Hold at Deutsche Bank, PT 367p (Close 325,0)
Sonova Cut to Underperform vs Buy at BofAML
GN Store Nord Raised to Buy at BofAML
Zoopla Property Rated New Neutral at Exane, PT 240p (Close 236,6)
Coloplast Raised to Buy From Hold at Nordea; PT Dkk565 (Close 494,0)
Eutelsat Reinstated Neutral at BofAML, PT Eu30 (Close 25,57)
SES Reinstated Buy at BofAML, PT Eu35 (Close 27,38)
Aker Solutions Rated New Sell at UBS, PT Nk60 (Close 64,0)
Sodexo Added to UBS Least Preferred List
Edenred Raised to Buy vs Neutral at UBS
Edenred Added to UBS Most Preferred List
Facc AG Rated New Buy at UBS, PT Eu9.5 (Close 8,04)
Royal Mail Raised to Neutral vs Sell at UBS
Zoopla Rated New Neutral at Goldman, PT 242p (Close 236,6)
Galp Energia Cut to Neutral vs Outperform at Credit Suisse
Aker Solutions Rated New Buy at Goldman, PT Nok77.5 (Close 64,0)
SSP Rated New Overweight at JPMorgan, PT 300p (Close 259,7)
MTU Aero Raised to Neutral vs Underweight at JPMorgan; PT Eu69,0 (Close 67,6)
Balfour Beatty Raised to Neutral vs Underweight at JPMorgan; PT 220p to 200p (Close 188,6)
• JPMorgan says in note not more positive on Balfour Beatty, still sees material earnings risk short-term, no visibility on management, future strategy, dividends or buyback guarantee.
• Cuts EPS ests. 46% for 2014, 19% for 2015, still sees some risk to new ests.
• Says long-term valuation supportive though not an upside driver, cuts PT to 200p from 220p
BMW Raised to Overweight vs Equalweight at Morgan Stanley; PT Eu86 to 95 (Close 86,1)
• BMW is the highest quality play in EU Autos, and defensive appeal in an uncertain industry backdrop now makes it our only OW. Despite consistent EPS momentum the stock has de-rated on China fears, which looks overdone: even if 50% of import profit is lost, we think BMW can sustain 8% Auto margins
Daily Mail Cut to Equalweight vs Overweight at Morgan Stanley
DSV Cut to Equalweight vs Overweight at Barclays; PT Dkk160 to 182 (Close 166,6)
Kuehne & Nagel Raised to Overweight vs Equalweight at Barclays; PT Sfr105 to 137 (Close 120,6)
Panalpina Raised to Overweight vs Equalweight at Barclays; PT Sfr95 to 154 (Close 120,1)
Unibail-Rodamco Raised to Overweight at HSBC; PT Eu210,0 to 240,0 (Close 203,7
Remain Positive on S. Europe Utilities, Enel Top Pick: Barclays
• Sector no longer extremely cheap on multiples although remain positive on deep value, self-help stories, Barclays says in note on S. European utilities.
• Barclays: Enel (overweight) remains top pick on potential to create value from operational changes, holding co. restructuring
• Says Enel trades at ~20% discount to broader utilities sector on Barclays ests. for 2015/2016; shrs reflect transition risks (which should be completed within 6 months), but not expected “solid turnaround” in erns
• Discount set to disappear as soon as restructuring is completed
• Preferred picks among regulated firms are Snam, Enagas, REN (all overweight); should be supported in 2015 by upside potential on divs., extra premiums in yields vs bond mkt
Tänased analüüsimajade reitingumuutused ja kommentaarid USA ettevõtete kohta:
Exelon (EXC) upgraded to Buy from Hold at ISI Group; tgt raised to $39 from $33
Fluor (FLR) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at DA Davidson; tgt $85
Masco (MAS) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan; tgt raised to $28.50 from $21
Tyson Foods (TSN) upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at Credit Suisse; tgt raised to $42 from $38
Dean Foods (DF) downgraded to Hold from Buy at BB&T Capital Mkts
eBay (EBAY) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies; downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan, tgt raised to $61 from $56; downgraded to Mkt Perform from Mkt Outperform at JMP Securities
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) downgraded to Mkt Perform from Outperform at Bernstein
Amgen (AMGN) reinstated with a Neutral at BofA/Merrill; tgt $152
C.H. Robinson (CHRW) resumed with a Market Perform at Wells Fargo
Cisco Systems (CSCO) initiated with a Overweight at Atlantic Equities; tgt $31
Ford Motor (F) removed from US 1 list at BofA/Merrill
Moody's (MCO) target raised to $107 from $93 at Piper Jaffray; Overweight
Tyco (TYC) initiated with a Neutral at Goldman; tgt $47
Exelon (EXC) upgraded to Buy from Hold at ISI Group; tgt raised to $39 from $33
Fluor (FLR) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at DA Davidson; tgt $85
Masco (MAS) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan; tgt raised to $28.50 from $21
Tyson Foods (TSN) upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at Credit Suisse; tgt raised to $42 from $38
Dean Foods (DF) downgraded to Hold from Buy at BB&T Capital Mkts
eBay (EBAY) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies; downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan, tgt raised to $61 from $56; downgraded to Mkt Perform from Mkt Outperform at JMP Securities
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) downgraded to Mkt Perform from Outperform at Bernstein
Amgen (AMGN) reinstated with a Neutral at BofA/Merrill; tgt $152
C.H. Robinson (CHRW) resumed with a Market Perform at Wells Fargo
Cisco Systems (CSCO) initiated with a Overweight at Atlantic Equities; tgt $31
Ford Motor (F) removed from US 1 list at BofA/Merrill
Moody's (MCO) target raised to $107 from $93 at Piper Jaffray; Overweight
Tyco (TYC) initiated with a Neutral at Goldman; tgt $47
Mõned tänased reitingute muudatused Euroopas:
Eurocommercial Cut to Neutral vs Overweight at HSBC; PT Eu36 to 39 (Close 33,96)
Aberdeen Asset Raised to Hold at Jefferies as Flows Improve; PT 350p to 400 (Close 391)
• Aberdeen Asset Management raised from underperform on fast improvement in outflow momentum, Jefferies says in note today.
• No shift yet to net inflows
• Net flows likely to be offset by further “attrition” in SWIP life funds
• Equity markets remain big downside risk, market risk trumps all other risks
Fraport Removed From Goldman Conviction Buy List, Stays Buy
Swiss Life Raised to Equalweight on Capital, Strategy, MS Says
•Swiss Life upgraded from underweight as capital position seems “robust” and tighter credit spreads, organic capital growth cost cuts put co. in comfortable position re Swiss Solvency Test, Morgan Stanley says in note today.
• Says progress toward 2015 targets ahead of schedule
• Sees Swiss Life’s SST ratio at 142%, rising to 148% by 2015
• Notes Swiss Life doesn’t disclose that ratio, says only that it’s above 100%
• Cuts 2014-2018 earnings ests on margin pressure in Swiss business, PT raised 28% to CHF244
• Cuts COE est. to 11% from 13% on capital confidence
LVMH Raised to Overweight vs Neutral at JPMorgan; PT Eu145 to 155 (Close 127,4)
Richemont Raised to Overweight vs Neutral at JPMorgan; PT Sfr94 to 95 (Close 77,65)
•LVMH, Richemont have attractive valuations, earnings may start to improve in 2H, JPMorgan says in a note
•European luxury cos. under JPM coverage down avg. 14% in past year, have lagged MSCI Europe by 22%; earnings have been hurt by negative FX, sales slowdown in mainland China, investments
• LVMH, Richemont are below historical levels on P/E basis;
• Organic sales growth may be tough into 2H with Japan improvement countered by weak Asia Pacific
•Luxury earnings should start to get boost from FX starting in 2H; 1H14 may be low point, start to improve in 2H and more significantly in 2015
• LVMH, Richemont may be first to win back investor interest in tough sector backdrop
SGS Cut to Underperform vs Neutral at Credit Suisse
Direct Line Cut to Equalweight After Outperformance, MS Says
• Direct Line’s trading will be closer to peers from now on and recent announcement on disposal of international operations means now is best time to realize gains, Morgan Stanley says in note.
• Sees headwinds in near term that may cancel out positive catalysts, notes tough trading conditions
• Says more likely some positive catalysts will develop in 12-18 months
• Competition in U.K. motor and home insurance markets is higher than expected, will damp S/T growth outlook
• Raises 2014, 2015 EPS ests 25% and 48% to reflect disposal of International, 2016 EPS est. cut 6% on loss of International earnings
Dechra Pharma Rated New Buy at Jefferies, PT 871p (Close 753)
ADP Removed From Goldman Conviction Sell List, Stays Sell
Hugo Boss Rated New Buy at Jefferies, PT Eu115 (Close 95,84)
Sainsbury Cut to Underperform at Macquarie; PT 320p to 200p (Close 234p)
RTL Group Rated New Buy at UBS, PT Eu84.70 (Close 67,2)
• RTL intiated after UBS survey shows “more positive than expected” trends in Germany, France, Spain, UBS says in note.
• UBS says RTL shrs at 52-wk lows, after negative profit revisions from French ads, Freemantle, Hungarian tax legislation
• Says however profit momentum and shares are reaching their lowest point, now time to buy
Vozrozhdenie Bank Cut to Hold vs Buy at Deutsche; PT RUB 420 (Close 458)
Tcs Group Holding Cut to Sell vs Hold at Deutsche; PT $4 (Close 4,6)
Swiss Life Raised to Equalweight at Morgan Stanley
Novo Nordisk Rated New Equalweight at Morgan Stanley, PT Dk301 (Close 283,8)
Ipsen Rated New Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT Eu46 (Close 39,24)
• We believe investors are overlooking IPN's progress in restructuring its base business over the past 2 years (streamlining French primary care, sale of haemophilia partner, US reorganisation). We see a compelling risk-reward underpinned by pipeline catalysts in the next 6 months and self-help opportunities (efficiencies, business development). We think the shares are missing this, on a 2015e P/E of 17x, in line with the sector but c20% below specialty peers despite higher EPS growth (13% 2015-18e vs sector on 8%)Orange Polska Cut to Hold vs Buy at ING; PT Pln10,7 to 10,8 (Close 11,5).
Uralkali Raised to Equalweight vs Underweight at Barclays; PT Usd20 (Close 17,77)
Dechra Pharma Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT 871p (Close 753)
TF1 Upgraded to Buy at UBS on Improving French Ad Trends
• TF1 ad trends “less bad,” with recent UBS survey showing French TV ads stronger than anticipated at -2% in 3Q, UBS says in note; raises to buy from neutral, lifts PT to EU13.30 from EU12.30.
• UBS says survey results suggest S/T positivity; decline is less than before, will lead to positive investor sentiment
• Shares have underperformed mkt by 28% YTD; upgrades to buy on this weakness
Eurocommercial Cut to Neutral vs Overweight at HSBC; PT Eu36 to 39 (Close 33,96)
Aberdeen Asset Raised to Hold at Jefferies as Flows Improve; PT 350p to 400 (Close 391)
• Aberdeen Asset Management raised from underperform on fast improvement in outflow momentum, Jefferies says in note today.
• No shift yet to net inflows
• Net flows likely to be offset by further “attrition” in SWIP life funds
• Equity markets remain big downside risk, market risk trumps all other risks
Fraport Removed From Goldman Conviction Buy List, Stays Buy
Swiss Life Raised to Equalweight on Capital, Strategy, MS Says
•Swiss Life upgraded from underweight as capital position seems “robust” and tighter credit spreads, organic capital growth cost cuts put co. in comfortable position re Swiss Solvency Test, Morgan Stanley says in note today.
• Says progress toward 2015 targets ahead of schedule
• Sees Swiss Life’s SST ratio at 142%, rising to 148% by 2015
• Notes Swiss Life doesn’t disclose that ratio, says only that it’s above 100%
• Cuts 2014-2018 earnings ests on margin pressure in Swiss business, PT raised 28% to CHF244
• Cuts COE est. to 11% from 13% on capital confidence
LVMH Raised to Overweight vs Neutral at JPMorgan; PT Eu145 to 155 (Close 127,4)
Richemont Raised to Overweight vs Neutral at JPMorgan; PT Sfr94 to 95 (Close 77,65)
•LVMH, Richemont have attractive valuations, earnings may start to improve in 2H, JPMorgan says in a note
•European luxury cos. under JPM coverage down avg. 14% in past year, have lagged MSCI Europe by 22%; earnings have been hurt by negative FX, sales slowdown in mainland China, investments
• LVMH, Richemont are below historical levels on P/E basis;
• Organic sales growth may be tough into 2H with Japan improvement countered by weak Asia Pacific
•Luxury earnings should start to get boost from FX starting in 2H; 1H14 may be low point, start to improve in 2H and more significantly in 2015
• LVMH, Richemont may be first to win back investor interest in tough sector backdrop
SGS Cut to Underperform vs Neutral at Credit Suisse
Direct Line Cut to Equalweight After Outperformance, MS Says
• Direct Line’s trading will be closer to peers from now on and recent announcement on disposal of international operations means now is best time to realize gains, Morgan Stanley says in note.
• Sees headwinds in near term that may cancel out positive catalysts, notes tough trading conditions
• Says more likely some positive catalysts will develop in 12-18 months
• Competition in U.K. motor and home insurance markets is higher than expected, will damp S/T growth outlook
• Raises 2014, 2015 EPS ests 25% and 48% to reflect disposal of International, 2016 EPS est. cut 6% on loss of International earnings
Dechra Pharma Rated New Buy at Jefferies, PT 871p (Close 753)
ADP Removed From Goldman Conviction Sell List, Stays Sell
Hugo Boss Rated New Buy at Jefferies, PT Eu115 (Close 95,84)
Sainsbury Cut to Underperform at Macquarie; PT 320p to 200p (Close 234p)
RTL Group Rated New Buy at UBS, PT Eu84.70 (Close 67,2)
• RTL intiated after UBS survey shows “more positive than expected” trends in Germany, France, Spain, UBS says in note.
• UBS says RTL shrs at 52-wk lows, after negative profit revisions from French ads, Freemantle, Hungarian tax legislation
• Says however profit momentum and shares are reaching their lowest point, now time to buy
Vozrozhdenie Bank Cut to Hold vs Buy at Deutsche; PT RUB 420 (Close 458)
Tcs Group Holding Cut to Sell vs Hold at Deutsche; PT $4 (Close 4,6)
Swiss Life Raised to Equalweight at Morgan Stanley
Novo Nordisk Rated New Equalweight at Morgan Stanley, PT Dk301 (Close 283,8)
Ipsen Rated New Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT Eu46 (Close 39,24)
• We believe investors are overlooking IPN's progress in restructuring its base business over the past 2 years (streamlining French primary care, sale of haemophilia partner, US reorganisation). We see a compelling risk-reward underpinned by pipeline catalysts in the next 6 months and self-help opportunities (efficiencies, business development). We think the shares are missing this, on a 2015e P/E of 17x, in line with the sector but c20% below specialty peers despite higher EPS growth (13% 2015-18e vs sector on 8%)Orange Polska Cut to Hold vs Buy at ING; PT Pln10,7 to 10,8 (Close 11,5).
Uralkali Raised to Equalweight vs Underweight at Barclays; PT Usd20 (Close 17,77)
Dechra Pharma Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT 871p (Close 753)
TF1 Upgraded to Buy at UBS on Improving French Ad Trends
• TF1 ad trends “less bad,” with recent UBS survey showing French TV ads stronger than anticipated at -2% in 3Q, UBS says in note; raises to buy from neutral, lifts PT to EU13.30 from EU12.30.
• UBS says survey results suggest S/T positivity; decline is less than before, will lead to positive investor sentiment
• Shares have underperformed mkt by 28% YTD; upgrades to buy on this weakness
Tänased analüüsimajade reitingumuutused ja kommentaarid USA ettevõtete kohta:
Autodesk (ADSK) upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Citigroup; upgraded to Outperform from Mkt Perform at Cowen, tgt $65
Bank of America (BAC) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS; tgt raised to $20 from $16
Fossil (FOSL) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at ISI Group
IntercontinentalExchange (ICE) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank
PulteGroup (PHM) upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Goldman; removed from America's Sell list
Twitter (TWTR) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan; tgt raised to $64 from $54
Eaton (ETN) downgraded to Perform from Outperform at Oppenheimer
JPMorgan Chase (JPM) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS
PNC (PNC) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies; tgt lowered to $94 from $95
U.S. Steel (X) downgraded to Hold from Buy at KeyBanc Capital Mkts
Marathon Petroleum (MPC) initiated with a Top Pick at RBC Capital Mkts; tgt $115
Valero Energy (VLO) initiated with a Outperform at RBC Capital Mkts; tgt $66
Autodesk (ADSK) upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Citigroup; upgraded to Outperform from Mkt Perform at Cowen, tgt $65
Bank of America (BAC) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS; tgt raised to $20 from $16
Fossil (FOSL) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at ISI Group
IntercontinentalExchange (ICE) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank
PulteGroup (PHM) upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Goldman; removed from America's Sell list
Twitter (TWTR) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan; tgt raised to $64 from $54
Eaton (ETN) downgraded to Perform from Outperform at Oppenheimer
JPMorgan Chase (JPM) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS
PNC (PNC) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies; tgt lowered to $94 from $95
U.S. Steel (X) downgraded to Hold from Buy at KeyBanc Capital Mkts
Marathon Petroleum (MPC) initiated with a Top Pick at RBC Capital Mkts; tgt $115
Valero Energy (VLO) initiated with a Outperform at RBC Capital Mkts; tgt $66
Mõned tänased reitingute muudatused Euroopas:
Spirit Pub Rated New Buy at Canaccord, PT 110p (Close 97,0)
Greene King Rated New Hold at Canaccord, PT 800p (Close 767)
Statoil Assumed Neutral at Credit Suisse, PT Nk185 (Close 169,0)
Elior Rated New Neutral at Exane, PT Eu14.6 (Close 12,7)
Endesa Raised to Neutral vs Underperform at Exane
Fresnillo Raised to Outperform at RBC Capital; PT 1000p to 950p (Close 749,5)
JD Wetherspoon Raised to Neutral vs Underweight at HSBC; PT 730p to 850p (Close 780)
Bogdanka Rated New Buy at SocGen; Pln139 (Close 112,75)
Swiss Life Cut to Neutral vs Buy at Nomura; PT Sfr240 (Close 225,1)
Topdanmark Cut to Underperform vs Neutral at Credit Suisse
Gjensidige Forsikring Cut to Underperform at Credit Suisse
Sampo Cut to Neutral vs Outperform at Credit Suisse
Euronext Rated New Buy at SocGen, PT Eu24.5 (Close 19,22)
Storebrand Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley
Debenhams Raised to Neutral vs Sell at Goldman; PT 60p (Close 60,0)
Colruyt Raised to Neutral vs Sell at Goldman; Pt Eu37,2 to 35,5 (Close 34,2)
Ion Beam Applications Rated New Buy at Jefferies, PT Eu16 (Close 14,2)
Elekta Rated New Hold at Jefferies, PT Sek68 (Close 71,25)
Carrefour Raised to Market Perform at Sanford Bernstein; PT Eu24,5 to 25,0 (Close 23,2)
Spirit Pub Rated New Buy at Canaccord, PT 110p (Close 97,0)
Greene King Rated New Hold at Canaccord, PT 800p (Close 767)
Statoil Assumed Neutral at Credit Suisse, PT Nk185 (Close 169,0)
Elior Rated New Neutral at Exane, PT Eu14.6 (Close 12,7)
Endesa Raised to Neutral vs Underperform at Exane
Fresnillo Raised to Outperform at RBC Capital; PT 1000p to 950p (Close 749,5)
JD Wetherspoon Raised to Neutral vs Underweight at HSBC; PT 730p to 850p (Close 780)
Bogdanka Rated New Buy at SocGen; Pln139 (Close 112,75)
Swiss Life Cut to Neutral vs Buy at Nomura; PT Sfr240 (Close 225,1)
Topdanmark Cut to Underperform vs Neutral at Credit Suisse
Gjensidige Forsikring Cut to Underperform at Credit Suisse
Sampo Cut to Neutral vs Outperform at Credit Suisse
Euronext Rated New Buy at SocGen, PT Eu24.5 (Close 19,22)
Storebrand Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley
Debenhams Raised to Neutral vs Sell at Goldman; PT 60p (Close 60,0)
Colruyt Raised to Neutral vs Sell at Goldman; Pt Eu37,2 to 35,5 (Close 34,2)
Ion Beam Applications Rated New Buy at Jefferies, PT Eu16 (Close 14,2)
Elekta Rated New Hold at Jefferies, PT Sek68 (Close 71,25)
Carrefour Raised to Market Perform at Sanford Bernstein; PT Eu24,5 to 25,0 (Close 23,2)
Tänased analüüsimajade reitingumuutused ja kommentaarid USA ettevõtete kohta:
Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) upgraded to Equal Weight from Underweight at Barclays
Halliburton (HAL) upgraded to Equal-Weight from Underweight at Morgan Stanley
Apple (AAPL) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank
Cliffs Natural Resources (CLF) downgraded to Reduce from Buy at Nomura
FireEye (FEYE) downgraded to Under Perform at Northland Capital; tgt lowered to $25 from $34
Costco (COST) target raised to $120 at Oppenheimer
F5 Networks (FFIV) target raised to $140 from $130 at Piper Jaffray; Overweight
Jetblue Airways (JBLU) added to Short-Term Buy list at Deutsche Bank
Salesforce.com (CRM) initiated with a Buy at Sterne Agee; tgt $70
Thermo Fisher (TMO) initiated with a Neutral at BTIG Research
Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) upgraded to Equal Weight from Underweight at Barclays
Halliburton (HAL) upgraded to Equal-Weight from Underweight at Morgan Stanley
Apple (AAPL) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank
Cliffs Natural Resources (CLF) downgraded to Reduce from Buy at Nomura
FireEye (FEYE) downgraded to Under Perform at Northland Capital; tgt lowered to $25 from $34
Costco (COST) target raised to $120 at Oppenheimer
F5 Networks (FFIV) target raised to $140 from $130 at Piper Jaffray; Overweight
Jetblue Airways (JBLU) added to Short-Term Buy list at Deutsche Bank
Salesforce.com (CRM) initiated with a Buy at Sterne Agee; tgt $70
Thermo Fisher (TMO) initiated with a Neutral at BTIG Research
Mõned tänased reitingute muudatused Euroopas:
Moncler Raised to Buy at BofAML
Norma Raised to Buy at BofAML
Belgacom Cut to Neutral vs Overweight at HSBC; PT Eu26 to 29 (Close 28,03)
Telenet Raised to Overweight vs Neutral at HSBC; PT Eu48 to 54 (Close 45,7)
Outokumpu Raised to Outperform vs Neutral at Credit Suisse; Pt eu7,56 to 7,09)
• Major restructuring and plant reconfiguration should substantially improve productivity (and hence earnings) and the Calvert ramp up could add cE200m to EBITDA also. We think the Indonesian ore ban should still benefit EU stainless players (but in 2015 at the earliest). While macro risks suggest next year could still disappoint, the focus on FCF through restructuring and capex cuts suggests potential for a 17% FCF yield 2 years forward with no cycle improvement (and no benefit from the Indonesian ban).
Just Retirement Raised to Buy vs Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT180p (CLose 120,3)
Henderson Group Raised to Buy at Canaccord Genuity; PT 240p (Close 199,6)
Subsea 7 Cut to Neutral vs Outperform at Exane
Dunelm Cut to Neutral vs Buy at Citi
Air France Cut to Neutral vs Buy at Citi; PT Eu9,9 to 7,7
•Air France-KLM total operating losses from pilot strike may be EU225m, with added rev. loss from forward bookings of EU100m-EU150m, says Citi in note.
• 2014E est. Ebitda cut by ~EU350m to EU1.82b: Citi
Delhaize Cut to Hold vs Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT Eu59 (Close 53,9)
BAE Systems Cut to Hold vs Buy at SocGen; PT 485p (Close 460,2p)
Pharma Sector Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan
Energy Sector Raised to Neutral vs Underweight at JPMorgan
Novo Nordisk Cut to Hold vs Buy at DNB; PT Dkk300 (Close 291,0)
• Novo shrs have outstripped fundamentals as outlook for newsflow declines, DNB Markets says in note.
• DNB remains positive on co.’s long-term outlook, market position and pipeline; PT maintained at DKK300
• Sees Tresiba U.S. launch by early 2016
Bank of Ireland Rated New Neutral at JPMorgan, PT Eu0.30 (Close 0,31)
Mbank Raised to Neutral vs Sell at Goldman; PT Pln475 to 515 (Close 481)
Erste Bank Raised to Buy vs Neutral at Goldman, Top Pick in E. Europe; PT Eu24 to 23 (Close 17,99)
• Erste Bank exposure to Russia, Ukraine “negligible” even as lender is positioned to benefit from a recovery in Central and Eastern Europe, Goldman Sachs says in note today.
• Outlook for “subdued” S/T performance priced in after several profit warnings
• Current price offers “attractive entry point”
• Other Top Picks among Greek, CEE banks include: National Bank of Greece which should do well in recovery of economy, improving oper trends and continued revamp; book value to rise faster than rivals’
• Alpha Bank may also do well as economy recovers and given reshaped playing field; underlying ROTE seen at 15% by 2017/2018
• OTP is “one of least appreciated” CEE banks, Goldman says, should benefit from improving Hungary sentiment, easing market view on risks of Russia/Ukraine crisis
• Komercni has ample liquidity, stable environment, good capitalization, is exposed to attractive Czech banking market
Europe Metals & Mining Sector Cut to Neutral at UBS
Europe Healthcare Equipment Sector Raised to Overweight at UBS
Moncler Raised to Buy at BofAML
Norma Raised to Buy at BofAML
Belgacom Cut to Neutral vs Overweight at HSBC; PT Eu26 to 29 (Close 28,03)
Telenet Raised to Overweight vs Neutral at HSBC; PT Eu48 to 54 (Close 45,7)
Outokumpu Raised to Outperform vs Neutral at Credit Suisse; Pt eu7,56 to 7,09)
• Major restructuring and plant reconfiguration should substantially improve productivity (and hence earnings) and the Calvert ramp up could add cE200m to EBITDA also. We think the Indonesian ore ban should still benefit EU stainless players (but in 2015 at the earliest). While macro risks suggest next year could still disappoint, the focus on FCF through restructuring and capex cuts suggests potential for a 17% FCF yield 2 years forward with no cycle improvement (and no benefit from the Indonesian ban).
Just Retirement Raised to Buy vs Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT180p (CLose 120,3)
Henderson Group Raised to Buy at Canaccord Genuity; PT 240p (Close 199,6)
Subsea 7 Cut to Neutral vs Outperform at Exane
Dunelm Cut to Neutral vs Buy at Citi
Air France Cut to Neutral vs Buy at Citi; PT Eu9,9 to 7,7
•Air France-KLM total operating losses from pilot strike may be EU225m, with added rev. loss from forward bookings of EU100m-EU150m, says Citi in note.
• 2014E est. Ebitda cut by ~EU350m to EU1.82b: Citi
Delhaize Cut to Hold vs Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT Eu59 (Close 53,9)
BAE Systems Cut to Hold vs Buy at SocGen; PT 485p (Close 460,2p)
Pharma Sector Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan
Energy Sector Raised to Neutral vs Underweight at JPMorgan
Novo Nordisk Cut to Hold vs Buy at DNB; PT Dkk300 (Close 291,0)
• Novo shrs have outstripped fundamentals as outlook for newsflow declines, DNB Markets says in note.
• DNB remains positive on co.’s long-term outlook, market position and pipeline; PT maintained at DKK300
• Sees Tresiba U.S. launch by early 2016
Bank of Ireland Rated New Neutral at JPMorgan, PT Eu0.30 (Close 0,31)
Mbank Raised to Neutral vs Sell at Goldman; PT Pln475 to 515 (Close 481)
Erste Bank Raised to Buy vs Neutral at Goldman, Top Pick in E. Europe; PT Eu24 to 23 (Close 17,99)
• Erste Bank exposure to Russia, Ukraine “negligible” even as lender is positioned to benefit from a recovery in Central and Eastern Europe, Goldman Sachs says in note today.
• Outlook for “subdued” S/T performance priced in after several profit warnings
• Current price offers “attractive entry point”
• Other Top Picks among Greek, CEE banks include: National Bank of Greece which should do well in recovery of economy, improving oper trends and continued revamp; book value to rise faster than rivals’
• Alpha Bank may also do well as economy recovers and given reshaped playing field; underlying ROTE seen at 15% by 2017/2018
• OTP is “one of least appreciated” CEE banks, Goldman says, should benefit from improving Hungary sentiment, easing market view on risks of Russia/Ukraine crisis
• Komercni has ample liquidity, stable environment, good capitalization, is exposed to attractive Czech banking market
Europe Metals & Mining Sector Cut to Neutral at UBS
Europe Healthcare Equipment Sector Raised to Overweight at UBS
Tänased analüüsimajade reitingumuutused ja kommentaarid USA ettevõtete kohta:
Coca-Cola Ent (CCE) upgraded to Neutral from Reduce at Nomura; tgt raised to $43 from $39
Colgate-Palmolive (CL) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Barclays; tgt lowered to $65 from $69
Harley-Davidson (HOG) upgraded to Outperform at RBC Capital Mkts; tgt lowered to $70
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman; tgt raised to $584 from $466
L Brands (LB) upgraded to Outperform from Mkt Perform at BMO Capital Mkts; tgt raised to $80 from $58
Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at Piper Jaffray; tgt lowered to $35 from $45
Deckers Outdoor (DECK) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at Piper Jaffray
McDonald's (MCD) downgraded to Equal-Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley
PetSmart (PETM) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Barclays; tgt lowered to $70 from $75
HCP (HCP) initiated with a Neutral at ISI Group; tgt $42
Health Care REIT (HCN) initiated with a Buy at ISI Group; tgt $70
Ventas (VTR) initiated with a Buy at ISI Group;tgt $70
Coca-Cola Ent (CCE) upgraded to Neutral from Reduce at Nomura; tgt raised to $43 from $39
Colgate-Palmolive (CL) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Barclays; tgt lowered to $65 from $69
Harley-Davidson (HOG) upgraded to Outperform at RBC Capital Mkts; tgt lowered to $70
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman; tgt raised to $584 from $466
L Brands (LB) upgraded to Outperform from Mkt Perform at BMO Capital Mkts; tgt raised to $80 from $58
Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at Piper Jaffray; tgt lowered to $35 from $45
Deckers Outdoor (DECK) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at Piper Jaffray
McDonald's (MCD) downgraded to Equal-Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley
PetSmart (PETM) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Barclays; tgt lowered to $70 from $75
HCP (HCP) initiated with a Neutral at ISI Group; tgt $42
Health Care REIT (HCN) initiated with a Buy at ISI Group; tgt $70
Ventas (VTR) initiated with a Buy at ISI Group;tgt $70
Mõned tänased analüüsimajade kommentaarid:
Kappahl Raised to Buy vs Neutral at Swedbank; Pt Sek42 (Close 38,1)
Fagerhult Cut to Neutral vs Buy at Swedbank; PT Sek170 to 160 (Close 146)
Pernod-Ricard Cut to Sell vs Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT Eu80 (Close 87,49)
Enel Green Power Cut to Neutral vs Overweight at JPMorgan; PT Eu2,12 to 2,11 (Close 1,95)
Endesa Raised to Overweight vs Underweight at JPMorgan; PT Eu19,5 to 33,0 (Close 30,99)
Schroders Cut to Underperform vs Buy at BofAML
Santander Cut to Reduce vs Neutral at Nomura; PT Eu5,8 to 5,9 (Close 7,45)
Antofagasta Raised to Neutral vs Reduce at Nomura
Antofagasta Raised to Hold vs Sell at SocGen PT 715p to 755 (Close 706,5)
Smith & Nephew Raised to Hold vs Sell at SocGen; PT 700p to 1100 (Close 1032)
Rosneft Added to UBS Least Preferred List
Lukoil Added to UBS Most Preferred List
European Industrials Raised, Health Care Cut at Morgan Stanley
• European industrial stocks raised to overweight and health-care stocks lowered to underweight in Morgan Stanley equity strategy note.
• Growth outlook not as bad as feared for cyclicals; weaker euro has led to significant earnings revisions
• On 12-mo. forward PEs, cyclicals trading at lowest relative valuations since Nov. 2008
• Many industrials look oversold
• If ECB policy gains tractions, cyclicals should outperform
• Buying Babcock, Philips, BMW, selling Reed, GN Store Nord
• Morgan Stanley now underweight in main defensive sectors, notes that health-care outperformance has been extreme
Ryanair Cut to Neutral vs Overweight at JPMorgan; PT Eu8,15 to 8,5 (Close 7,53)
Air France Raised to Overweight vs Underweight at JPMorgan; PT Eu7,0 to 8,5 (Close 7,0)
• Near-term risk/reward favors Air France over Ryanair after recent moves, says JPMorgan in note
• Sees 24% upside for EasyJet (reiterated overweight, focus list), +18% for IAG (reiterated overweight), +1% for LHA (reiterated neutral)
•Continues to prefer low-cost carriers longer term
•Ebola not material risk unless it becomes airborne disease
Ferrovial Rated New Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT eu18,7 (Close 15,4)
• The Americas' toll road assets remain undervalued, in our view, and traffic improvement and a low rates environment are key drivers to unlock this value in the coming months. In the meantime, earnings risks from the rest of the operations remain limited as services should continue to improve profitability thanks to the restructuring of the UK assets post the Enterprise acquisition a year ago, while construction backlogs are starting to re-accelerate. HAH's reduced stake and the new regulatory period, which has just started, should turn airports neutral for sentiment in the near term.
Vinci Rated New Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT Eu51,1 (Close 45,3)
• Vinci, despite its large revenue exposure to contracting activities, is also dominated at the EBITDA level by the earnings contribution from its toll roads division – ASF and Cofiroute motorways – given its high profitability. Of the 3, it is also the most domestic company, ~82% of its EBITDA exposure comes from France versus ACS with only ~26% and Ferrovial with only ~24% (attributable) exposure in Spain.
• The stock has recently sold off sharply due to its significant exposure to France (macro data increasingly negative), as well as the downgrade to construction revenues and earnings at the 1H14 results. Both of these risks are more than priced in now, in our view. On France, perhaps counter-intuitively, motorway traffic is doing well, helped probably by the decline in GDP per capita, which implies fewer people are holidaying abroad, opting for staycations instead and driving on Vinci's motorways. Here, ASF benefits more, given its larger tourist component as well as lowering fuel prices.
ACS Rated New Equalweight at Morgan Stanley; PT Eu31,6 (Close 30,59)
• The balance sheet restructuring appeals, as does the potential value generation if the assets held for sale (€1.5mn of net value) are disposed of successfully, and the restructuring of Leighton continues. However, we are cautious on Leighton's earnings and cash flow outlook for the coming years. With 17% implied downside to Leighton's fair value and with EPS c.10% below consensus for 2015e and 2016e on the back of our gap in Leighton, downside risk balances out the positive prospects we see elsewhere for the group.
SMA Solar Technology Raised to Buy vs Neutral at Citi
HeidelbergCement Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT Eu65 (Close 53,11)
Delta Lloyd Rated New Outperform at Exane, PT Eu23 (Close 18,86)
Experian Reinitiated Neutral at Exane, PT 1,050p (Close 973,5)
Aggreko Rated New Underperform at Exane, PT 1,500p (Close 1548)
Kappahl Raised to Buy vs Neutral at Swedbank; Pt Sek42 (Close 38,1)
Fagerhult Cut to Neutral vs Buy at Swedbank; PT Sek170 to 160 (Close 146)
Pernod-Ricard Cut to Sell vs Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT Eu80 (Close 87,49)
Enel Green Power Cut to Neutral vs Overweight at JPMorgan; PT Eu2,12 to 2,11 (Close 1,95)
Endesa Raised to Overweight vs Underweight at JPMorgan; PT Eu19,5 to 33,0 (Close 30,99)
Schroders Cut to Underperform vs Buy at BofAML
Santander Cut to Reduce vs Neutral at Nomura; PT Eu5,8 to 5,9 (Close 7,45)
Antofagasta Raised to Neutral vs Reduce at Nomura
Antofagasta Raised to Hold vs Sell at SocGen PT 715p to 755 (Close 706,5)
Smith & Nephew Raised to Hold vs Sell at SocGen; PT 700p to 1100 (Close 1032)
Rosneft Added to UBS Least Preferred List
Lukoil Added to UBS Most Preferred List
European Industrials Raised, Health Care Cut at Morgan Stanley
• European industrial stocks raised to overweight and health-care stocks lowered to underweight in Morgan Stanley equity strategy note.
• Growth outlook not as bad as feared for cyclicals; weaker euro has led to significant earnings revisions
• On 12-mo. forward PEs, cyclicals trading at lowest relative valuations since Nov. 2008
• Many industrials look oversold
• If ECB policy gains tractions, cyclicals should outperform
• Buying Babcock, Philips, BMW, selling Reed, GN Store Nord
• Morgan Stanley now underweight in main defensive sectors, notes that health-care outperformance has been extreme
Ryanair Cut to Neutral vs Overweight at JPMorgan; PT Eu8,15 to 8,5 (Close 7,53)
Air France Raised to Overweight vs Underweight at JPMorgan; PT Eu7,0 to 8,5 (Close 7,0)
• Near-term risk/reward favors Air France over Ryanair after recent moves, says JPMorgan in note
• Sees 24% upside for EasyJet (reiterated overweight, focus list), +18% for IAG (reiterated overweight), +1% for LHA (reiterated neutral)
•Continues to prefer low-cost carriers longer term
•Ebola not material risk unless it becomes airborne disease
Ferrovial Rated New Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT eu18,7 (Close 15,4)
• The Americas' toll road assets remain undervalued, in our view, and traffic improvement and a low rates environment are key drivers to unlock this value in the coming months. In the meantime, earnings risks from the rest of the operations remain limited as services should continue to improve profitability thanks to the restructuring of the UK assets post the Enterprise acquisition a year ago, while construction backlogs are starting to re-accelerate. HAH's reduced stake and the new regulatory period, which has just started, should turn airports neutral for sentiment in the near term.
Vinci Rated New Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT Eu51,1 (Close 45,3)
• Vinci, despite its large revenue exposure to contracting activities, is also dominated at the EBITDA level by the earnings contribution from its toll roads division – ASF and Cofiroute motorways – given its high profitability. Of the 3, it is also the most domestic company, ~82% of its EBITDA exposure comes from France versus ACS with only ~26% and Ferrovial with only ~24% (attributable) exposure in Spain.
• The stock has recently sold off sharply due to its significant exposure to France (macro data increasingly negative), as well as the downgrade to construction revenues and earnings at the 1H14 results. Both of these risks are more than priced in now, in our view. On France, perhaps counter-intuitively, motorway traffic is doing well, helped probably by the decline in GDP per capita, which implies fewer people are holidaying abroad, opting for staycations instead and driving on Vinci's motorways. Here, ASF benefits more, given its larger tourist component as well as lowering fuel prices.
ACS Rated New Equalweight at Morgan Stanley; PT Eu31,6 (Close 30,59)
• The balance sheet restructuring appeals, as does the potential value generation if the assets held for sale (€1.5mn of net value) are disposed of successfully, and the restructuring of Leighton continues. However, we are cautious on Leighton's earnings and cash flow outlook for the coming years. With 17% implied downside to Leighton's fair value and with EPS c.10% below consensus for 2015e and 2016e on the back of our gap in Leighton, downside risk balances out the positive prospects we see elsewhere for the group.
SMA Solar Technology Raised to Buy vs Neutral at Citi
HeidelbergCement Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT Eu65 (Close 53,11)
Delta Lloyd Rated New Outperform at Exane, PT Eu23 (Close 18,86)
Experian Reinitiated Neutral at Exane, PT 1,050p (Close 973,5)
Aggreko Rated New Underperform at Exane, PT 1,500p (Close 1548)
Tänased analüüsimajade reitingumuutused ja kommentaarid USA ettevõtete kohta:
Ingersoll-Rand (IR) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman; tgt raised to $68 from $67
Intl Paper (IP) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA/Merrill; tgt raised to $55 from $33
MGM Resorts (MGM) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank; tgt to $30 from $29
Cummins (CMI) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA/Merrill
Deere (DE) downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at BofA/Merrill
Dunkin Brands (DNKN) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies; tgt lowered to $47
Las Vegas Sands (LVS) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank; tgt lowered to $65 from $74
PG&E (PCG) downgraded to Fair Value from Buy at CRT Capital
U.S. Bancorp (USB) downgraded to Mkt Perform from Strong Buy at Raymond James
Apple (AAPL) target raised to $120 from $115 at Susquehanna; maintain Positive
CBOE Holdings (CBOE) initiated with a Neutral at Citigroup; tgt $55
CBS (CBS) target lowered to $71 at FBR Capital; maintain Outperform
Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) target raised to $45 at Brean Capital
SunTrust Banks (STI) initiated with a Mkt Perform at Bernstein; tgt $42
UnitedHealth (UNH) initiated with a Overweight at Piper Jaffray, tgt $121; reinstated with a Buy from Neutral at BofA/Merrill, tgt raised to $120 from $98
Ingersoll-Rand (IR) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman; tgt raised to $68 from $67
Intl Paper (IP) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA/Merrill; tgt raised to $55 from $33
MGM Resorts (MGM) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank; tgt to $30 from $29
Cummins (CMI) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA/Merrill
Deere (DE) downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at BofA/Merrill
Dunkin Brands (DNKN) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies; tgt lowered to $47
Las Vegas Sands (LVS) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank; tgt lowered to $65 from $74
PG&E (PCG) downgraded to Fair Value from Buy at CRT Capital
U.S. Bancorp (USB) downgraded to Mkt Perform from Strong Buy at Raymond James
Apple (AAPL) target raised to $120 from $115 at Susquehanna; maintain Positive
CBOE Holdings (CBOE) initiated with a Neutral at Citigroup; tgt $55
CBS (CBS) target lowered to $71 at FBR Capital; maintain Outperform
Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) target raised to $45 at Brean Capital
SunTrust Banks (STI) initiated with a Mkt Perform at Bernstein; tgt $42
UnitedHealth (UNH) initiated with a Overweight at Piper Jaffray, tgt $121; reinstated with a Buy from Neutral at BofA/Merrill, tgt raised to $120 from $98
Täna Euroopas:
Spirent Cut to Neutral at BofAML
ITV Added to Credit Suisse Focus List on ‘Rare’ Content Assets (Close 204,4p)
• ITV is “rare” content asset, recent pullback on global growth worries, offers attractive entry point, Credit Suisse says in note.
• Credit Suisse adds to Europe Focus List; reiterates outperform, PT 207p
• Cites ITV Studios’s strategic value, profit momentum, possible capital returns, upside if retransmission fees introduced
• Sees co. generating >GBP400m in FCF in 2014, >GBP600m in 2015, making possible “significant” capital return in 2015
• Says would be “logical” to expect GBP280m-GBP360m
• Shrs at “undemanding” multiples, 9.8x 2015 est. EV/Ebitda
Gas Natural Cut To Underweight, Better Value Elsewhere, MS Says
• At current levels valuation is stretched, while capital redeployment visibility is limited and LNG margins have peaked, Morgan Stanley says in note dated Oct. 7; cuts to underweight vs equalweight.
• MS: appears expensive on P/E, EV/Ebitda vs peers and FCF yield at ~10% below sector avg. 11%; div. yield only 190bps above sovereign vs EDP at 250bps, GDF Suez 390bps
• Co. has EU7b capital to redeploy 2015-2017, ~30% of mkt cap; sees reinvestment risk with low yield environment, increase in competition in good mkts
• Shrs have performed strongly past 2 yrs on divestment plan, capex slowdown, strong FCF, mkt conditions improvement
•SSE, GDF Suez better buy opportunities on superior div. yield, better investment plans; in S. Europe Enel, EDP Renovaveis have more compelling risk/reward
Melker Schorling Raised to Hold From Sell at Nordea; PT Sek335 (Close 310,5)
SKF Cut to Hold vs Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT Sek195 to 175 (Close 144,2)
Aker Solutions Raised to Hold vs Sell at Deutsche Bank; PT Nok82 to 57 (Close 59,8)
Fresenius SE Reinstated Buy at Deutsche Bank, PT Eu47 (Close 37,5)
Clariant Rating Cut at Goldman Sachs After Outperformance
•Clariant downgraded to neutral vs buy at Goldman Sachs, PT cut to CHF19.5 vs CHF20, according to note.
• Cuts 2014, 2015, 2016 EPS ests. by 1%, 2%, 1% respectively
• Cites 3Q industrial trends, FX, “more muted” growth in Plastics & Coatings (exposure to European industrial end mkts) and in Natural Resources (lower commodity prices) in coming yrs
• Says shrs +9.7% vs European chemicals sector -0.1% since co. added to buy list on Aug. 30, 2013
• Says Clariant’s improved portfolio attractive to potential buyer, already reflected in shr price
• NOTE: Clariant due to report 3Q on Oct. 30
Tesco Raised to Neutral vs Underweight at HSBC; PT 175p to 195p (Close 182,6)
•Tesco’s board has gotten stronger, lower stock price shows many risks priced in, HSBC says in note; raises to neutral vs underweight.
• Sees lower risk profile from recent board additions, “decisive” action by CEO, cultural changes occurring
• Sees more positive news in future, such as addressing balance sheet with rights issue and/or asset sales, more senior executive and non-executive hires, possible new chairman
• May be more bad news in accounting, pensions, profit rebasing; still has to address problems (pension deficit >10% of EV), may do a rights issue
Kloeckner Cut to Neutral vs Overweight at JPMorgan; PT Eu12,5 to 11,0 (Close 9,69)
GKN Cut to Underperform vs Buy at BofAML
Actelion Removed From UBS Most Preferred List
Hikma Added to UBS Most Preferred List
London Mining Cut to Hold vs Buy at Jefferies
African Minerals Cut to Hold vs Buy at Jefferies
Flughafen Zurich Cut to Equalweight at Morgan Stanley
Aeroports de Paris Raised to Equalweight at Morgan Stanley
Dixy Group Raised to Buy vs Neutral at Goldman; PT Rub425 to 618 (Close 418,6)
Cairn Energy Raised to Hold vs Sell at SocGen; PT 155p to 200 (Close 183,5)
Kaufman & Broad Cut to Hold vs Buy at SocGen; PT eu27 (Close 25,2)
Lenta Rated New Buy at Goldman; PT USD15,2 (Close 10,9)
Severstal Cut to Equalweight vs Overweight at Morgan Stanley
Paypoint Cut to Underweight vs Equalweight at Barclays
Dassault Systemes Raised to Equalweight at Barclays; PT Eu 45 to 48 (Close 50,1)
•3Q benefits from a low comparison, which may support management’s claim it can grow license double-digit, Barclays says in note.
• Stock raised to equalweight from underweight
• Stock is up 11.1% YTD vs a -1.6% fall in the SX8P index
• Next catalyst: 3Q earnings on Oct. 23, according to Bloomberg’s event calendar
European Chemicals Earnings Estimates Cut at Credit Suisse
• Credit Suisse reduces earnings estimates for European chemicals sector through 2016 by avg of ~2% into 3Q results, according to note.
• Sees limited European recovery after summer slowdown as construction, automotive remain challenging; weak LatAm, Asia demand; limited pricing power
• Key stocks with downside earnings risk include BASF, Novozymes
• Repeats stock preferences:
• Outperform: DSM, Croda, Syngenta
• Underperform: BASF, Umicore, K+S
Spirent Cut to Neutral at BofAML
ITV Added to Credit Suisse Focus List on ‘Rare’ Content Assets (Close 204,4p)
• ITV is “rare” content asset, recent pullback on global growth worries, offers attractive entry point, Credit Suisse says in note.
• Credit Suisse adds to Europe Focus List; reiterates outperform, PT 207p
• Cites ITV Studios’s strategic value, profit momentum, possible capital returns, upside if retransmission fees introduced
• Sees co. generating >GBP400m in FCF in 2014, >GBP600m in 2015, making possible “significant” capital return in 2015
• Says would be “logical” to expect GBP280m-GBP360m
• Shrs at “undemanding” multiples, 9.8x 2015 est. EV/Ebitda
Gas Natural Cut To Underweight, Better Value Elsewhere, MS Says
• At current levels valuation is stretched, while capital redeployment visibility is limited and LNG margins have peaked, Morgan Stanley says in note dated Oct. 7; cuts to underweight vs equalweight.
• MS: appears expensive on P/E, EV/Ebitda vs peers and FCF yield at ~10% below sector avg. 11%; div. yield only 190bps above sovereign vs EDP at 250bps, GDF Suez 390bps
• Co. has EU7b capital to redeploy 2015-2017, ~30% of mkt cap; sees reinvestment risk with low yield environment, increase in competition in good mkts
• Shrs have performed strongly past 2 yrs on divestment plan, capex slowdown, strong FCF, mkt conditions improvement
•SSE, GDF Suez better buy opportunities on superior div. yield, better investment plans; in S. Europe Enel, EDP Renovaveis have more compelling risk/reward
Melker Schorling Raised to Hold From Sell at Nordea; PT Sek335 (Close 310,5)
SKF Cut to Hold vs Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT Sek195 to 175 (Close 144,2)
Aker Solutions Raised to Hold vs Sell at Deutsche Bank; PT Nok82 to 57 (Close 59,8)
Fresenius SE Reinstated Buy at Deutsche Bank, PT Eu47 (Close 37,5)
Clariant Rating Cut at Goldman Sachs After Outperformance
•Clariant downgraded to neutral vs buy at Goldman Sachs, PT cut to CHF19.5 vs CHF20, according to note.
• Cuts 2014, 2015, 2016 EPS ests. by 1%, 2%, 1% respectively
• Cites 3Q industrial trends, FX, “more muted” growth in Plastics & Coatings (exposure to European industrial end mkts) and in Natural Resources (lower commodity prices) in coming yrs
• Says shrs +9.7% vs European chemicals sector -0.1% since co. added to buy list on Aug. 30, 2013
• Says Clariant’s improved portfolio attractive to potential buyer, already reflected in shr price
• NOTE: Clariant due to report 3Q on Oct. 30
Tesco Raised to Neutral vs Underweight at HSBC; PT 175p to 195p (Close 182,6)
•Tesco’s board has gotten stronger, lower stock price shows many risks priced in, HSBC says in note; raises to neutral vs underweight.
• Sees lower risk profile from recent board additions, “decisive” action by CEO, cultural changes occurring
• Sees more positive news in future, such as addressing balance sheet with rights issue and/or asset sales, more senior executive and non-executive hires, possible new chairman
• May be more bad news in accounting, pensions, profit rebasing; still has to address problems (pension deficit >10% of EV), may do a rights issue
Kloeckner Cut to Neutral vs Overweight at JPMorgan; PT Eu12,5 to 11,0 (Close 9,69)
GKN Cut to Underperform vs Buy at BofAML
Actelion Removed From UBS Most Preferred List
Hikma Added to UBS Most Preferred List
London Mining Cut to Hold vs Buy at Jefferies
African Minerals Cut to Hold vs Buy at Jefferies
Flughafen Zurich Cut to Equalweight at Morgan Stanley
Aeroports de Paris Raised to Equalweight at Morgan Stanley
Dixy Group Raised to Buy vs Neutral at Goldman; PT Rub425 to 618 (Close 418,6)
Cairn Energy Raised to Hold vs Sell at SocGen; PT 155p to 200 (Close 183,5)
Kaufman & Broad Cut to Hold vs Buy at SocGen; PT eu27 (Close 25,2)
Lenta Rated New Buy at Goldman; PT USD15,2 (Close 10,9)
Severstal Cut to Equalweight vs Overweight at Morgan Stanley
Paypoint Cut to Underweight vs Equalweight at Barclays
Dassault Systemes Raised to Equalweight at Barclays; PT Eu 45 to 48 (Close 50,1)
•3Q benefits from a low comparison, which may support management’s claim it can grow license double-digit, Barclays says in note.
• Stock raised to equalweight from underweight
• Stock is up 11.1% YTD vs a -1.6% fall in the SX8P index
• Next catalyst: 3Q earnings on Oct. 23, according to Bloomberg’s event calendar
European Chemicals Earnings Estimates Cut at Credit Suisse
• Credit Suisse reduces earnings estimates for European chemicals sector through 2016 by avg of ~2% into 3Q results, according to note.
• Sees limited European recovery after summer slowdown as construction, automotive remain challenging; weak LatAm, Asia demand; limited pricing power
• Key stocks with downside earnings risk include BASF, Novozymes
• Repeats stock preferences:
• Outperform: DSM, Croda, Syngenta
• Underperform: BASF, Umicore, K+S
Tänased reitingute muudatused Euroopas:
Ericsson Reinstated Underperform at BofAML
Nokia Reinstated Buy at BofAML
Outotec Raised to Hold From Sell at Nordea; PT Eu5.50 (Close 5,34)
Allianz Cut to Neutral vs Outperform at Exane
Haldex Raised to Buy vs Neutral at Swedbank; Pt Sek95 (Close 79,0)
Man SE Cut to Underperform at BofAML
Vodafone Cut to Reduce vs Neutral at Nomura; PT 190p to 180 (Close 204,3)
• Vodafone likely to face competition from new entrants in U.K., Netherlands and India, Nomura says in note.
• Nomura: Drillisch’s new 4G offers may accelerate price cuts in German mkt.
• Recent surveys in U.K./Germany reflect poorly on VOD’s network quality; little evidence that higher spending will significantly improve customer experience
• This raises doubts over whether VOD’s medium-term dividend is sustainable
Edenred Raised to Hold vs Sell at Deutsche Bank; PT Eu21,0 to 22,5 (Close 20,27)
Schneider Electric Removed From Goldman Conviction Buy List; PT Eu97 to 75 (Close 57,11)
Geberit Added to Goldman Conviction Buy List; Stays Buy; PT Sfr380 to 385 (Close 292,8)
Siemens Added to Goldman Conviction Buy List; Stays Buy; PT Eu118 to 120 (Close 88,18)
Wärtsilä Raised to Neutral vs Sell at Goldman; PT eu37 (Close 33,97)
Renault Cut to Neutral vs Overweight at JPMorgan; PT Eu74 to 65 (Close 54,64)
Gerresheimer Cut to Neutral vs Overweight at JPMorgan; PT Eu59 to 49 (Close 49,0 (Close 49,0)
CEZ Cut to Neutral vs Overweight at JPMorgan; PT Czk640 to 600 (Close 622,2)
Dunelm Group Raised to Overweight vs Neutral at JPMorgan; PT 1000p (Close 816,0)
BMW Raised to Overweight vs Neutral at JPMorgan; PT Eu90 to 105 (Close 81,24)
K+S Cut to Sell vs Neutral at Citi
Sika Added to UBS Most Preferred List
EMS-Chemie, Wacker Chemie Removed From UBS Most Preferred List
Eurobank Rated New Neutral at Citi
Green Dragon Gas Rated New Buy at Cantor, PT 952p (Close 439,88)
Alpha Bank Raised to Buy vs Neutral at Citi
Bavarian Nordic Rated New Buy at Citi
Innate Pharma Rated New Buy at Citi
Boohoo Rated New Overweight at Barclays; PT 65p (Close 46,5)
Investec Ltd Rated New Overweight at Barclays; PT 625p (Close 518,5)
Red Electrica Raised to Neutral at HSBC
Victrex Volumes Strong, 2015 May Be Year of Transition: JPMorgan (Close 1589p)
•Victrex’s volumes strong, beating consensus ests. by 7% with strong momentum especially in Consumer Electronics, JPMorgan says in note.
• JPMorgan reiterates neutral, raises PT to 1,720p vs 1,700p
• Notes overhead inflation, weaker mix weighing on 2014 profit growth as co. kept profit expectations unchanged
• Says 2015 faces “negative pressures,” to be transition yr; cites commissioning costs for new plant, investments in new marketing initiatives, negative FX pressures
• Invibio rev. +5%, “back on track”
• Earlier: Victrex says profit expectations “largely unchanged” despite particularly strong sales volumes; growth momentum remains positive into new FY
• NOTE: due to report FY results on Dec. 10
Ericsson Reinstated Underperform at BofAML
Nokia Reinstated Buy at BofAML
Outotec Raised to Hold From Sell at Nordea; PT Eu5.50 (Close 5,34)
Allianz Cut to Neutral vs Outperform at Exane
Haldex Raised to Buy vs Neutral at Swedbank; Pt Sek95 (Close 79,0)
Man SE Cut to Underperform at BofAML
Vodafone Cut to Reduce vs Neutral at Nomura; PT 190p to 180 (Close 204,3)
• Vodafone likely to face competition from new entrants in U.K., Netherlands and India, Nomura says in note.
• Nomura: Drillisch’s new 4G offers may accelerate price cuts in German mkt.
• Recent surveys in U.K./Germany reflect poorly on VOD’s network quality; little evidence that higher spending will significantly improve customer experience
• This raises doubts over whether VOD’s medium-term dividend is sustainable
Edenred Raised to Hold vs Sell at Deutsche Bank; PT Eu21,0 to 22,5 (Close 20,27)
Schneider Electric Removed From Goldman Conviction Buy List; PT Eu97 to 75 (Close 57,11)
Geberit Added to Goldman Conviction Buy List; Stays Buy; PT Sfr380 to 385 (Close 292,8)
Siemens Added to Goldman Conviction Buy List; Stays Buy; PT Eu118 to 120 (Close 88,18)
Wärtsilä Raised to Neutral vs Sell at Goldman; PT eu37 (Close 33,97)
Renault Cut to Neutral vs Overweight at JPMorgan; PT Eu74 to 65 (Close 54,64)
Gerresheimer Cut to Neutral vs Overweight at JPMorgan; PT Eu59 to 49 (Close 49,0 (Close 49,0)
CEZ Cut to Neutral vs Overweight at JPMorgan; PT Czk640 to 600 (Close 622,2)
Dunelm Group Raised to Overweight vs Neutral at JPMorgan; PT 1000p (Close 816,0)
BMW Raised to Overweight vs Neutral at JPMorgan; PT Eu90 to 105 (Close 81,24)
K+S Cut to Sell vs Neutral at Citi
Sika Added to UBS Most Preferred List
EMS-Chemie, Wacker Chemie Removed From UBS Most Preferred List
Eurobank Rated New Neutral at Citi
Green Dragon Gas Rated New Buy at Cantor, PT 952p (Close 439,88)
Alpha Bank Raised to Buy vs Neutral at Citi
Bavarian Nordic Rated New Buy at Citi
Innate Pharma Rated New Buy at Citi
Boohoo Rated New Overweight at Barclays; PT 65p (Close 46,5)
Investec Ltd Rated New Overweight at Barclays; PT 625p (Close 518,5)
Red Electrica Raised to Neutral at HSBC
Victrex Volumes Strong, 2015 May Be Year of Transition: JPMorgan (Close 1589p)
•Victrex’s volumes strong, beating consensus ests. by 7% with strong momentum especially in Consumer Electronics, JPMorgan says in note.
• JPMorgan reiterates neutral, raises PT to 1,720p vs 1,700p
• Notes overhead inflation, weaker mix weighing on 2014 profit growth as co. kept profit expectations unchanged
• Says 2015 faces “negative pressures,” to be transition yr; cites commissioning costs for new plant, investments in new marketing initiatives, negative FX pressures
• Invibio rev. +5%, “back on track”
• Earlier: Victrex says profit expectations “largely unchanged” despite particularly strong sales volumes; growth momentum remains positive into new FY
• NOTE: due to report FY results on Dec. 10