JPMorgani tänase autotootjate calli tausta veidi. BMWd soosib mudelitsükli tõttu, Renault pole aga arenevate turgude exposure'i tõttu enam atraktiivne
• Next two qtrs “excellent entry points” for BMW ahead of upside from new model introductions including 7 Series in 2015, says JPMorgan in note.
•Renault cut to neutral from overweight on Brazil, Russia challenges
• JPM says adjusting ests. across sector to reflect “mild” 2015 vehicle demand growth in Europe and N. America, drop in Brazil and high-single-digit growth in China
• Continue to favor suppliers vs automakers, favors “pure” suppliers Valeo, Faurecia vs tiremakers
Tänased analüüsimajade reitingumuutused ja kommentaarid USA ettevõtete kohta:
Apple (AAPL) upgraded to Outperform from Perform at Oppenheimer
Vulcan Materials (VMC) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Longbow; tgt $70
Colgate-Palmolive (CL) downgraded to Mkt Perform from Outperform at BMO Capital Mkts; tgt lowered to $70 from $75
Denbury Resources (DNR) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Robert W. Baird
Gap (GPS) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Wells Fargo; downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Janney, tgt lowered to $41 from $50; downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Sterne Agee, tgt lowered to $40 from $52
J. C. Penney (JCP) downgraded to Sell from Hold at Craig Hallum
Allergan (AGN) initiated with a Buy at Deutsche Bank; tgt $215
DuPont (DD) initiated with a Sector Perform at RBC Capital Mkts; tgt $71
LyondellBasell (LYB) initiated with a Top Pick at RBC Capital Mkts; tgt $141
United Continental (UAL) added to Global Focus list and US Focus list at Credit Suisse; maintain Outperform and $68 tgt
Apple (AAPL) upgraded to Outperform from Perform at Oppenheimer
Vulcan Materials (VMC) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Longbow; tgt $70
Colgate-Palmolive (CL) downgraded to Mkt Perform from Outperform at BMO Capital Mkts; tgt lowered to $70 from $75
Denbury Resources (DNR) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Robert W. Baird
Gap (GPS) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Wells Fargo; downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Janney, tgt lowered to $41 from $50; downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Sterne Agee, tgt lowered to $40 from $52
J. C. Penney (JCP) downgraded to Sell from Hold at Craig Hallum
Allergan (AGN) initiated with a Buy at Deutsche Bank; tgt $215
DuPont (DD) initiated with a Sector Perform at RBC Capital Mkts; tgt $71
LyondellBasell (LYB) initiated with a Top Pick at RBC Capital Mkts; tgt $141
United Continental (UAL) added to Global Focus list and US Focus list at Credit Suisse; maintain Outperform and $68 tgt
Euroopa reitingute muutused
Iliad Raised to Outperform vs Neutral at Exane
Hochschild Mining Raised to Overweight vs Neutral at HSBC; PT 170p (Close 119,0)
Carrefour Raised to Overweight at HSBC; PT Eu28 (Close 22,88)
Hiscox Raised to Neutral vs Underweight at HSBC; PT 630p to 690p (Close 646,5)
M6 Raised to Overweight vs Neutral at HSBC; PT Eu16 to 15 (Close 12,3)
Man Group Cut to Neutral vs Overweight at HSBC; PT 135p to 132p (Close 119,4)
Gerresheimer Cut to Neutral vs Overweight at HSBC; PT Eu60 to 49 (Close 43,64)
Centrica Cut to Underweight vs Overweight at HSBC; PT 365p to 290p (Close 302,4)
ENI Raised to Buy at Canaccord Genuity; PT Eu17,7 to 22,0 (Close 17,0)
Hunting Raised to Buy at Canaccord Genuity; PT 950p (Close 803,5)
Natixis New Overweight on Possible M&A Upside: Morgan Stanley; PT eu6,5 (Close 5,35)
• Natixis could be among European bank stocks with highest yields given upside from asset managment growth that may be boosted by M&A, Morgan Stanley says in note today.
Morgan Stanley: Market is mispricing dividend payout ratio; high return, high cash flow to drive ~100% payout in 2014
• Sees 2015-2017 payout at ~90%, would still leave end-2017 CET1 ratio at 11.5%
• Sees potential for EU1.5b asset management M&A; replicating U.S. multi-boutique success though acquisitions could add 5%-10% via accretion
• Alternatively there could be ~10% capital return potential in a year’s time
• Says Natixis CIB has outperformed peers with ~3% growth in 1H vs sector decline of ~5%
SEB Cut to Neutral vs Buy at Citi
Fresenius Medical Care Raised to Buy vs Neutral at BofAML
Telekom Austria Cut to Sell vs Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT Eu7,15 to 6,2 (Close 7,13)
Palfinger Cut to Neutral vs Buy at UBS; PT Eu32 to 20 (Close 19,2)
Cargotec Cut to Sell vs Neutral at UBS; PT eu27 to 17,5 (Close 21,9)
Bashneft Cut to Neutral vs Buy at UBS
Dixons Carphone Reinitiated Buy at UBS, PT 425p (Close 367p)
C&C Group Raised to Equalweight at Barclays; PT Eu4,15 to 4,4 (Close 4,02)
AB InBev Added to Goldman Conviction Buy List; Was Buy; PT Eu93 to 110 (Close 83,57)
BAT Cut to Sell vs Neutral at Goldman; PT 3530p to 3250p (Close 3480,5)
Carrefour Raised to Neutral vs Conviction Sell at Goldman; PT Eu22,4 to 23,0 (Close 22,89)
Sandvik Cut to Equalweight vs Overweight at Barclays; PT Sek89 to 80 (Close 76,65)
TSB Banking Rated New Equalweight at Morgan Stanley
Spirent Communications Raised to Equalweight at Morgan Stanley
Iliad Raised to Outperform vs Neutral at Exane
Hochschild Mining Raised to Overweight vs Neutral at HSBC; PT 170p (Close 119,0)
Carrefour Raised to Overweight at HSBC; PT Eu28 (Close 22,88)
Hiscox Raised to Neutral vs Underweight at HSBC; PT 630p to 690p (Close 646,5)
M6 Raised to Overweight vs Neutral at HSBC; PT Eu16 to 15 (Close 12,3)
Man Group Cut to Neutral vs Overweight at HSBC; PT 135p to 132p (Close 119,4)
Gerresheimer Cut to Neutral vs Overweight at HSBC; PT Eu60 to 49 (Close 43,64)
Centrica Cut to Underweight vs Overweight at HSBC; PT 365p to 290p (Close 302,4)
ENI Raised to Buy at Canaccord Genuity; PT Eu17,7 to 22,0 (Close 17,0)
Hunting Raised to Buy at Canaccord Genuity; PT 950p (Close 803,5)
Natixis New Overweight on Possible M&A Upside: Morgan Stanley; PT eu6,5 (Close 5,35)
• Natixis could be among European bank stocks with highest yields given upside from asset managment growth that may be boosted by M&A, Morgan Stanley says in note today.
Morgan Stanley: Market is mispricing dividend payout ratio; high return, high cash flow to drive ~100% payout in 2014
• Sees 2015-2017 payout at ~90%, would still leave end-2017 CET1 ratio at 11.5%
• Sees potential for EU1.5b asset management M&A; replicating U.S. multi-boutique success though acquisitions could add 5%-10% via accretion
• Alternatively there could be ~10% capital return potential in a year’s time
• Says Natixis CIB has outperformed peers with ~3% growth in 1H vs sector decline of ~5%
SEB Cut to Neutral vs Buy at Citi
Fresenius Medical Care Raised to Buy vs Neutral at BofAML
Telekom Austria Cut to Sell vs Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT Eu7,15 to 6,2 (Close 7,13)
Palfinger Cut to Neutral vs Buy at UBS; PT Eu32 to 20 (Close 19,2)
Cargotec Cut to Sell vs Neutral at UBS; PT eu27 to 17,5 (Close 21,9)
Bashneft Cut to Neutral vs Buy at UBS
Dixons Carphone Reinitiated Buy at UBS, PT 425p (Close 367p)
C&C Group Raised to Equalweight at Barclays; PT Eu4,15 to 4,4 (Close 4,02)
AB InBev Added to Goldman Conviction Buy List; Was Buy; PT Eu93 to 110 (Close 83,57)
BAT Cut to Sell vs Neutral at Goldman; PT 3530p to 3250p (Close 3480,5)
Carrefour Raised to Neutral vs Conviction Sell at Goldman; PT Eu22,4 to 23,0 (Close 22,89)
Sandvik Cut to Equalweight vs Overweight at Barclays; PT Sek89 to 80 (Close 76,65)
TSB Banking Rated New Equalweight at Morgan Stanley
Spirent Communications Raised to Equalweight at Morgan Stanley
Tänased analüüsimajade reitingumuutused ja kommentaarid USA ettevõtete kohta:
Aon (AON) upgraded to Mkt Perform from Underperform at BMO Capital Mkts
Avon Products (AVP) upgraded to Neutral from Sell at UBS; tgt lowered to $11 from $12.50
DuPont (DD) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies; tgt raised to $84 from $72
Halliburton (HAL) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Societe Generale; tgt lowered to $75 from $80
Groupon (GRPN) downgraded to Sell from Equal Weight at Evercore; tgt maintained at $5.50
J. C. Penney (JCP) downgraded to Sell at Maxim Group; tgt $4
Microchip (MCHP) downgraded to Hold at Needham; downgraded to Hold from Buy at Drexel Hamilton
EMC (EMC) initiated with a Buy at Jefferies; tgt $37
Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) initiated with a Hold at Jefferies; tgt $38
L Brands (LB) target raised to $70 at RBC Capital Mkts
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) assumed with a Neutral from Underperform at Credit Suisse; tgt $110
Juniper Networks (JNPR) tgt lowered to $25 from $29.50 at Cantor Fitzgerald; maintain Buy
Aon (AON) upgraded to Mkt Perform from Underperform at BMO Capital Mkts
Avon Products (AVP) upgraded to Neutral from Sell at UBS; tgt lowered to $11 from $12.50
DuPont (DD) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies; tgt raised to $84 from $72
Halliburton (HAL) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Societe Generale; tgt lowered to $75 from $80
Groupon (GRPN) downgraded to Sell from Equal Weight at Evercore; tgt maintained at $5.50
J. C. Penney (JCP) downgraded to Sell at Maxim Group; tgt $4
Microchip (MCHP) downgraded to Hold at Needham; downgraded to Hold from Buy at Drexel Hamilton
EMC (EMC) initiated with a Buy at Jefferies; tgt $37
Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) initiated with a Hold at Jefferies; tgt $38
L Brands (LB) target raised to $70 at RBC Capital Mkts
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) assumed with a Neutral from Underperform at Credit Suisse; tgt $110
Juniper Networks (JNPR) tgt lowered to $25 from $29.50 at Cantor Fitzgerald; maintain Buy
Tänased analüüsimade kommentaarid Euroopas:
Associated British Foods Raised to Buy vs Hold at SocGen; PT 2950p (Close 2488)
WH Smith Rated New Buy at Canaccord; PT 1225p (Close 1029)
Saipem Cut to Sell vs Neutral at UBS
Subsea 7 Cut to Neutral vs Buy at UBS
Renewed focus on capital discipline within oil industry, unit cost reduction may lead to prolonged slowdown in project sanctioning, UBS says in note.
•UBS: In previous cycles engineering activity has usually seen rebound in 12-18 months, current down cycle may be longer
• Order intake est. for E&C contractors in 2015/16 cut ~33% to 2008/09 levels; knock-on effect to 2016-18 rev.
• Saipem cut to sell vs neutral, PT down 36% to EU13.5
• With Eni viewing co. as non-core, may need balance sheet strengthening as standalone entity
• Lowers 2015/16 offshore order intake to EU4b vs EU6b, onshore to EU2.4b vs EU3.5b
• Lowers 2015/16 offshore order intake to EU4b vs EU6b, onshore to EU2.4b vs EU3.5b
• Subsea 7 cut to neutral vs buy, PT down 32% to NOK85
• Stock remains cheap, recent Guara-Lulu progress positive but don’t offset risk to consensus erns.
• 2015/16 order intake seen at $4b/yr vs $6b; 2014-17 ests cut 3.8%/12%/21.6%/33.5%
• 2015/16 order intake seen at $4b/yr vs $6b; 2014-17 ests cut 3.8%/12%/21.6%/33.5%
• Amec only buy in sector, Aker Solutions remains sell; EPS ests. cut for Technip, Petrofac, Aker Solutions, Wood Group
Randgold Resources Raised to Buy vs Neutral at UBS
Husqvarna Raised to Buy at DNB; PT Sek55 (Close 46,48)
• Robotic lawnmowers set to fuel strong earnings growth in years ahead, which isn’t priced in, DNB says.
• Sector yet to take off in Europe, gross margins should be very high
• Robotic lawnmowers priced 2-3x higher than normal walk-behind movers but with similar production costs
• Market quadrupled 2010-13 in Sweden; European penetration currently ~4%
Alfa Laval Raised to Hold at DNB; PT Sek 145 (Close 144,2)
•Alfa Laval set to announce cost-savings program with 3Q results that could support earnings over next 2 yrs, DNB says in note.
• DNB raises to hold from sell on less downside risk
• Shipping market still showing significant weakness
Luxottica Cut to Neutral vs Buy at Citi, PT Eu38.50 vs Eu47 (Close 41,08)
• Luxottica CEO Enrico Cavatorta’s departure raises governance fears, shrs may drop today in high-single-digits, Citi says in note, cuts to neutral.
• Citi also says co. has “unattractive” record of 2 respected executives leaving in 40 days
• Co. may have trouble finding strong candidates for unfilled co-CEO position
Anglo American Raised to Outperform at Credit Suisse; PT 1800p (Close 1325p)
• We return Anglo to an Outperform rating following our downgrade in May. The shares are down over 20% from the YTD peak and we believe the risk/ reward is attractive once again. Commodity prices have clearly weakened; however, our confidence in management delivering on targeted cost savings, capex reductions, and divestments has not. By 2016/17 Anglo should be lower down the cost curve (asset sales, operational improvements), geared to later cycle commodities and, from a standing start, offers the best two- to three-year growth and cash flow trajectory from the large-cap miners.
BMW price tärget cut from Eu85 to 70, Underperform rating reiterated at Credit Suisse
• BMW surprised the market with bullish guidance back in March. Now the H2 sales environment and pricing is weaker than expected in key China and European mkts. This was highlighted with BMW Sept global sales showing China growth of only +4% with high margin imports -30%. Local China mix is weakening, while dealers complain of high discounting and exaggerated BMW sales. Our original investment bear case remains intact as key 3-,5-,6- and 7-series models age and sales of these models collapsed by 10% in Q3. The perception of BMW as a relative safe haven is likely to change as sentiment turns on China and slower volume growth, higher incentives, falling Auto EBIT margins, and we forecast little or no Q3 FCF. With a rising CO2 cost burden for all OEMs, we are unlikely to see future costs falling away in 2016.
STMicroelectronics Cut to Neutral vs Overweight at JPMorgan; PT eu8,8 to 5,0 (Close 5,58)
Infineon Cut to Neutral vs Overweight at JPMorgan; PT Eu10 to 6,0 (Close 7,17)
•Weakness in German industrial production in August and Microchip’s comments on Chinese demand have significantly increased risks for Infineon and STMicro, JPMorgan says.
• JPM: unless there’s a global recession, growth in auto semis should remain strong over next few years
• Semi cos. likely to issue weaker guidance in 4Q ’14/1Q ’15
• With >50% rev. exposure to China/Germany weakness, hopes of STMicro being able to improve its margins and rev. will fade, JPM says
• Says co. needs to undergo bold restructuring of its cost base to bring opex in line with industry avg.
European Consumer Services Sector Cut to Underweight at HSBC
European Tech Hardware Sector Raised to Neutral at HSBC
European Semiconductors Sector Cut to Neutral at HSBC
European Insurance Sector Raised to Neutral at HSBC
European Food Retailing Sector Raised to Neutral at HSBC
European Software Sector Raised to Overweight at HSBC
St. James’s Place Rated New Buy at Citi, PT 810p (Close 673p)
Nokian Renkaat Raised to Strong Buy at Nordea; PT Eu31 (Close 22,97)
AstraZeneca Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT 5000p (Close 4300)
Munich Re Rated New Hold at Jefferies
Swiss Re Rated New Buy at Jefferies
• Swiss Re likely to pay “sizeable” special dividends for 2014, 2015 as co. has flagged $3b of excess capital that will be assigned either to growth or for return to shareholder repatriation by end 2015, Jefferies says in note today.
• Both Swiss Re, Munich Re seen delivering yields of 8%-9% in years ahead; Swiss Re preferred on $3b excess flagged for reallocation
• Swiss Re 2015 yield of 8.6% seen among highest in sector
• Sees “resilient” volumes in reinsurance
• Deterioration in combined ratio to be limited
• 2014-2016 ROC to be stable, seen at 11% for 2016 vs 13.6% in 2013
• Peak exposures are: Atlantic hurricane $4.5b, Californian earthquake $3.5b, Euro wind $3.8b, Japan earthquake $3.3b
• Munich Re ROCs seen declining 2014-2016 on drop in non-life prices
• Sees ROC dropping to 11.9% in 2016 from 12.6% in 2013
• Sees little or no volume growth
• Sees 2% L/T organic growth on drop in non-life prices, non-renewal of some life reinsurance, limited growth in Germany
• Sees “modest” payout ratio at ~40% with buybacks of EU1b annually used to return excess capital
• Sees 9% total yield, says that one of highest in sector
• Peak catastrophe exposures are: U.S. hurricane EU2.8b, European storm EU1.9b, Australian cyclone EU1.8b
Associated British Foods Raised to Buy vs Hold at SocGen; PT 2950p (Close 2488)
WH Smith Rated New Buy at Canaccord; PT 1225p (Close 1029)
Saipem Cut to Sell vs Neutral at UBS
Subsea 7 Cut to Neutral vs Buy at UBS
Renewed focus on capital discipline within oil industry, unit cost reduction may lead to prolonged slowdown in project sanctioning, UBS says in note.
•UBS: In previous cycles engineering activity has usually seen rebound in 12-18 months, current down cycle may be longer
• Order intake est. for E&C contractors in 2015/16 cut ~33% to 2008/09 levels; knock-on effect to 2016-18 rev.
• Saipem cut to sell vs neutral, PT down 36% to EU13.5
• With Eni viewing co. as non-core, may need balance sheet strengthening as standalone entity
• Lowers 2015/16 offshore order intake to EU4b vs EU6b, onshore to EU2.4b vs EU3.5b
• Lowers 2015/16 offshore order intake to EU4b vs EU6b, onshore to EU2.4b vs EU3.5b
• Subsea 7 cut to neutral vs buy, PT down 32% to NOK85
• Stock remains cheap, recent Guara-Lulu progress positive but don’t offset risk to consensus erns.
• 2015/16 order intake seen at $4b/yr vs $6b; 2014-17 ests cut 3.8%/12%/21.6%/33.5%
• 2015/16 order intake seen at $4b/yr vs $6b; 2014-17 ests cut 3.8%/12%/21.6%/33.5%
• Amec only buy in sector, Aker Solutions remains sell; EPS ests. cut for Technip, Petrofac, Aker Solutions, Wood Group
Randgold Resources Raised to Buy vs Neutral at UBS
Husqvarna Raised to Buy at DNB; PT Sek55 (Close 46,48)
• Robotic lawnmowers set to fuel strong earnings growth in years ahead, which isn’t priced in, DNB says.
• Sector yet to take off in Europe, gross margins should be very high
• Robotic lawnmowers priced 2-3x higher than normal walk-behind movers but with similar production costs
• Market quadrupled 2010-13 in Sweden; European penetration currently ~4%
Alfa Laval Raised to Hold at DNB; PT Sek 145 (Close 144,2)
•Alfa Laval set to announce cost-savings program with 3Q results that could support earnings over next 2 yrs, DNB says in note.
• DNB raises to hold from sell on less downside risk
• Shipping market still showing significant weakness
Luxottica Cut to Neutral vs Buy at Citi, PT Eu38.50 vs Eu47 (Close 41,08)
• Luxottica CEO Enrico Cavatorta’s departure raises governance fears, shrs may drop today in high-single-digits, Citi says in note, cuts to neutral.
• Citi also says co. has “unattractive” record of 2 respected executives leaving in 40 days
• Co. may have trouble finding strong candidates for unfilled co-CEO position
Anglo American Raised to Outperform at Credit Suisse; PT 1800p (Close 1325p)
• We return Anglo to an Outperform rating following our downgrade in May. The shares are down over 20% from the YTD peak and we believe the risk/ reward is attractive once again. Commodity prices have clearly weakened; however, our confidence in management delivering on targeted cost savings, capex reductions, and divestments has not. By 2016/17 Anglo should be lower down the cost curve (asset sales, operational improvements), geared to later cycle commodities and, from a standing start, offers the best two- to three-year growth and cash flow trajectory from the large-cap miners.
BMW price tärget cut from Eu85 to 70, Underperform rating reiterated at Credit Suisse
• BMW surprised the market with bullish guidance back in March. Now the H2 sales environment and pricing is weaker than expected in key China and European mkts. This was highlighted with BMW Sept global sales showing China growth of only +4% with high margin imports -30%. Local China mix is weakening, while dealers complain of high discounting and exaggerated BMW sales. Our original investment bear case remains intact as key 3-,5-,6- and 7-series models age and sales of these models collapsed by 10% in Q3. The perception of BMW as a relative safe haven is likely to change as sentiment turns on China and slower volume growth, higher incentives, falling Auto EBIT margins, and we forecast little or no Q3 FCF. With a rising CO2 cost burden for all OEMs, we are unlikely to see future costs falling away in 2016.
STMicroelectronics Cut to Neutral vs Overweight at JPMorgan; PT eu8,8 to 5,0 (Close 5,58)
Infineon Cut to Neutral vs Overweight at JPMorgan; PT Eu10 to 6,0 (Close 7,17)
•Weakness in German industrial production in August and Microchip’s comments on Chinese demand have significantly increased risks for Infineon and STMicro, JPMorgan says.
• JPM: unless there’s a global recession, growth in auto semis should remain strong over next few years
• Semi cos. likely to issue weaker guidance in 4Q ’14/1Q ’15
• With >50% rev. exposure to China/Germany weakness, hopes of STMicro being able to improve its margins and rev. will fade, JPM says
• Says co. needs to undergo bold restructuring of its cost base to bring opex in line with industry avg.
European Consumer Services Sector Cut to Underweight at HSBC
European Tech Hardware Sector Raised to Neutral at HSBC
European Semiconductors Sector Cut to Neutral at HSBC
European Insurance Sector Raised to Neutral at HSBC
European Food Retailing Sector Raised to Neutral at HSBC
European Software Sector Raised to Overweight at HSBC
St. James’s Place Rated New Buy at Citi, PT 810p (Close 673p)
Nokian Renkaat Raised to Strong Buy at Nordea; PT Eu31 (Close 22,97)
AstraZeneca Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT 5000p (Close 4300)
Munich Re Rated New Hold at Jefferies
Swiss Re Rated New Buy at Jefferies
• Swiss Re likely to pay “sizeable” special dividends for 2014, 2015 as co. has flagged $3b of excess capital that will be assigned either to growth or for return to shareholder repatriation by end 2015, Jefferies says in note today.
• Both Swiss Re, Munich Re seen delivering yields of 8%-9% in years ahead; Swiss Re preferred on $3b excess flagged for reallocation
• Swiss Re 2015 yield of 8.6% seen among highest in sector
• Sees “resilient” volumes in reinsurance
• Deterioration in combined ratio to be limited
• 2014-2016 ROC to be stable, seen at 11% for 2016 vs 13.6% in 2013
• Peak exposures are: Atlantic hurricane $4.5b, Californian earthquake $3.5b, Euro wind $3.8b, Japan earthquake $3.3b
• Munich Re ROCs seen declining 2014-2016 on drop in non-life prices
• Sees ROC dropping to 11.9% in 2016 from 12.6% in 2013
• Sees little or no volume growth
• Sees 2% L/T organic growth on drop in non-life prices, non-renewal of some life reinsurance, limited growth in Germany
• Sees “modest” payout ratio at ~40% with buybacks of EU1b annually used to return excess capital
• Sees 9% total yield, says that one of highest in sector
• Peak catastrophe exposures are: U.S. hurricane EU2.8b, European storm EU1.9b, Australian cyclone EU1.8b
Tänased analüüsimajade reitingumuutused ja kommentaarid USA ettevõtete kohta:
General Dynamics (GD) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Buckingham Research; tgt raised to $144 from $130
Infosys (INFY) upgraded to Buy form Hold at Deutsche Bank
T-Mobile US (TMUS) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Macquarie; tgt raised to $34 from $33
Whirlpool (WHR) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Longbow
CME Group (CME) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Wells Fargo
Cliffs Natural Resources (CLF) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan; tgt lowered to $5 from $18
Darden Restaurants (DRI) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at Piper Jaffray; tgt lowered to $50 from $55
Dover downgraded (DOV) to Neutral at Robert W. Baird; tgt lowered to $85
J. C. Penney (JCP) downgraded to Sell from Neutral at UBS; tgt $5
Johnson Controls (JCI) downgraded to Outperform at RBC Capital Mkts; tgt lowered to $49
Juniper Networks (JNPR) downgraded to Hold at Argus
Masco (MAS) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Barclays
Gilead Sciences (GILD) target raised to $130 at FBR Capital
Lam Research (LRCX) added to Conviction Buy list at Goldman; tgt raised to $85 from $78
Marathon Petroleum (MPC) reinstated with an Overweight at Barclays; tgt $119
Monsanto target (MON) lowered to $112 at Topeka Capital Markets
Urban Outfitters (URBN) target raised to $49 at Canaccord Genuity
General Dynamics (GD) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Buckingham Research; tgt raised to $144 from $130
Infosys (INFY) upgraded to Buy form Hold at Deutsche Bank
T-Mobile US (TMUS) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Macquarie; tgt raised to $34 from $33
Whirlpool (WHR) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Longbow
CME Group (CME) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Wells Fargo
Cliffs Natural Resources (CLF) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan; tgt lowered to $5 from $18
Darden Restaurants (DRI) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at Piper Jaffray; tgt lowered to $50 from $55
Dover downgraded (DOV) to Neutral at Robert W. Baird; tgt lowered to $85
J. C. Penney (JCP) downgraded to Sell from Neutral at UBS; tgt $5
Johnson Controls (JCI) downgraded to Outperform at RBC Capital Mkts; tgt lowered to $49
Juniper Networks (JNPR) downgraded to Hold at Argus
Masco (MAS) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Barclays
Gilead Sciences (GILD) target raised to $130 at FBR Capital
Lam Research (LRCX) added to Conviction Buy list at Goldman; tgt raised to $85 from $78
Marathon Petroleum (MPC) reinstated with an Overweight at Barclays; tgt $119
Monsanto target (MON) lowered to $112 at Topeka Capital Markets
Urban Outfitters (URBN) target raised to $49 at Canaccord Genuity
Mõned tänased analüüsimajade otsused Euroopas:
Aeroports de Paris Cut to Underperform at Raymond James; PT eu88 (Close 92,46)
Kungsleden Raised to Buy vs Neutral at Swedbank
Dios Cut to Neutral vs Buy at Swedbank; PT Sek 58 to 53 (Close 48,5)
Rockwool Raised to Buy at Citi
CRH Raised to Buy at Citi
REC Silicon Raised to Buy vs Sell at Citi
Panalpina Raised to Neutral vs Sell at Citi
Mobistar Raised to Buy vs Neutral at Citi
Belgacom Cut to Sell vs Neutral at Citi
Roche Added to Citi Focus List Europe
Hexagon Composites Raised to Buy vs Sell at DNB
Associated British Foods Raised to Neutral vs Reduce at Nomura; PT 2480p to 2610p (Close 2496)
AstraZeneca Raised to Buy vs Neutral at BofAML
• Co. can deliver significant premium growth to sector on pipeline progression driven by change in R&D process and culture, BofAML says in note.
• Upgrades to buy, PT 5,000p
• Expects more visibility around next wave of assets at Nov. 18 analyst day, including wee1, cmet, torc1/2 in oncology and some immunology assets (mavrilimumab, arthritis and anifrolumab, SLE)
• Notes co. to see significant newsflow around immuno-oncology assets in 2015 and multiple catalysts for Brilinta by end-2015 (est. peak sales of $3b with upside to $4b)
• Estimates 2017-2022 CAGR of 16%, which could increase to 21% on pipeline success
• Sees low probability of Pfizer deal
Iliad Raised to Outperform vs Sector Perform at RBC; PT Eu221 (Close 156,15)
Generali Rated New Outperform at RBC, PT Eu19 (Close 15,52)
Ablynx Rated New Buy at Jefferies, PT Eu15 (Close 7,62)
Iliad Raised to Buy vs Neutral at UBS
Coca Cola Icecek Raised to Buy vs Neutral at UBS
Lansdowne Oil & Gas Rated New Buy at Cantor, PT 86p (Close 12,12)
Voestalpine Raised to Buy vs Hold at Jefferies; PT Eu37 (Close 29,56)
Natixis Rated New Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT Eu6,5 (Close 5,3)
• We believe Natixis can be among the highest yielding stocks in our banks coverage, on a par with the Nordics and UBS: We have often argued we see positive dividend revision risk as a strong driver of stock performance in the banks sector. We expect Natixis' relatively high return and cash-flow model to drive ~100% payout for 2014e (65% divi, 35% buy-backs), the highest among European banks absent asset management (AM) M&A, with a further ~90% payout 2015-17e driving among best-in-class total capital return at 7% rising to 9% 2017e. Our base case assumes ~€3.8bn capital return 2014-16e, >20% of market cap; SOTP valuation implies 20% upside.
Merlin Properties Rated New Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT Eu11,6 (Close 9,99)
• Merlin offers a good play on an attractive underlying Spanish property market. While not without drawbacks, we think the shares are undemandingly valued for the return profile on offer.
KPN Reinstated Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT Eu2,9 (Close 2,29)
• KPN is not without risks but a quartet of positives drives our OW stance. In particular, we think FCF could double by 2019, we see scope for deleveraging (2x by FY17/18e and falling) and DPS growth, and valuation upside (~25%) is superior.
Colt Group Rated New Hold at Deutsche Bank
Galp Energia SGPS Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT Eu14,8 (Close 11,68)
BT Group Rated New Hold at Deutsche Bank
C&W Communications Rated New Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT 60p (Close 43,78)
IAG Upgraded; Ebola Fear Overdone, Fuel Price Drop Ignored: HSBC (Close 324,1p)
• IAG 3Q results Oct. 31, CMD Nov.8 likely to reassure, says HSBC in note.
• Ebola unlikely to have major impact on IAG network, effect of fuel price drop ignored -- est. +4% 2015 Ebit upside if current oil price/FX rate sustained
• IAG 3Q traffic, premium demand strong
• Raised to overweight from from neutral; PT lifted to 400p (23% upside) from 380p: HSBC
Henkel Cut to Underperform as BofAML Sees Further De-Rating
• BofAML downgrades Henkel to underperform vs buy, says increasing macro risks aren’t priced in, according to note.
• Sees rising earnings risk, need for M&A to meet 2016 targets
• Brokerage says Adhesives business “vulnerable” to material downgrades due to deteriorating macro outlook
• HPC business facing “intense competition, sluggish demand” and structural headwinds
Aeroports de Paris Cut to Underperform at Raymond James; PT eu88 (Close 92,46)
Kungsleden Raised to Buy vs Neutral at Swedbank
Dios Cut to Neutral vs Buy at Swedbank; PT Sek 58 to 53 (Close 48,5)
Rockwool Raised to Buy at Citi
CRH Raised to Buy at Citi
REC Silicon Raised to Buy vs Sell at Citi
Panalpina Raised to Neutral vs Sell at Citi
Mobistar Raised to Buy vs Neutral at Citi
Belgacom Cut to Sell vs Neutral at Citi
Roche Added to Citi Focus List Europe
Hexagon Composites Raised to Buy vs Sell at DNB
Associated British Foods Raised to Neutral vs Reduce at Nomura; PT 2480p to 2610p (Close 2496)
AstraZeneca Raised to Buy vs Neutral at BofAML
• Co. can deliver significant premium growth to sector on pipeline progression driven by change in R&D process and culture, BofAML says in note.
• Upgrades to buy, PT 5,000p
• Expects more visibility around next wave of assets at Nov. 18 analyst day, including wee1, cmet, torc1/2 in oncology and some immunology assets (mavrilimumab, arthritis and anifrolumab, SLE)
• Notes co. to see significant newsflow around immuno-oncology assets in 2015 and multiple catalysts for Brilinta by end-2015 (est. peak sales of $3b with upside to $4b)
• Estimates 2017-2022 CAGR of 16%, which could increase to 21% on pipeline success
• Sees low probability of Pfizer deal
Iliad Raised to Outperform vs Sector Perform at RBC; PT Eu221 (Close 156,15)
Generali Rated New Outperform at RBC, PT Eu19 (Close 15,52)
Ablynx Rated New Buy at Jefferies, PT Eu15 (Close 7,62)
Iliad Raised to Buy vs Neutral at UBS
Coca Cola Icecek Raised to Buy vs Neutral at UBS
Lansdowne Oil & Gas Rated New Buy at Cantor, PT 86p (Close 12,12)
Voestalpine Raised to Buy vs Hold at Jefferies; PT Eu37 (Close 29,56)
Natixis Rated New Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT Eu6,5 (Close 5,3)
• We believe Natixis can be among the highest yielding stocks in our banks coverage, on a par with the Nordics and UBS: We have often argued we see positive dividend revision risk as a strong driver of stock performance in the banks sector. We expect Natixis' relatively high return and cash-flow model to drive ~100% payout for 2014e (65% divi, 35% buy-backs), the highest among European banks absent asset management (AM) M&A, with a further ~90% payout 2015-17e driving among best-in-class total capital return at 7% rising to 9% 2017e. Our base case assumes ~€3.8bn capital return 2014-16e, >20% of market cap; SOTP valuation implies 20% upside.
Merlin Properties Rated New Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT Eu11,6 (Close 9,99)
• Merlin offers a good play on an attractive underlying Spanish property market. While not without drawbacks, we think the shares are undemandingly valued for the return profile on offer.
KPN Reinstated Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT Eu2,9 (Close 2,29)
• KPN is not without risks but a quartet of positives drives our OW stance. In particular, we think FCF could double by 2019, we see scope for deleveraging (2x by FY17/18e and falling) and DPS growth, and valuation upside (~25%) is superior.
Colt Group Rated New Hold at Deutsche Bank
Galp Energia SGPS Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT Eu14,8 (Close 11,68)
BT Group Rated New Hold at Deutsche Bank
C&W Communications Rated New Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT 60p (Close 43,78)
IAG Upgraded; Ebola Fear Overdone, Fuel Price Drop Ignored: HSBC (Close 324,1p)
• IAG 3Q results Oct. 31, CMD Nov.8 likely to reassure, says HSBC in note.
• Ebola unlikely to have major impact on IAG network, effect of fuel price drop ignored -- est. +4% 2015 Ebit upside if current oil price/FX rate sustained
• IAG 3Q traffic, premium demand strong
• Raised to overweight from from neutral; PT lifted to 400p (23% upside) from 380p: HSBC
Henkel Cut to Underperform as BofAML Sees Further De-Rating
• BofAML downgrades Henkel to underperform vs buy, says increasing macro risks aren’t priced in, according to note.
• Sees rising earnings risk, need for M&A to meet 2016 targets
• Brokerage says Adhesives business “vulnerable” to material downgrades due to deteriorating macro outlook
• HPC business facing “intense competition, sluggish demand” and structural headwinds
Tänased analüüsimajade reitingumuutused ja kommentaarid USA ettevõtete kohta:
Ford Motor (F) upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at Buckingham Research
T-Mobile US (TMUS) upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital Mkts; tgt lowered to $35 from $36
Corning (GLW) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA/Merrill; tgt $20
Ford Motor (F) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman
Home Depot (HD) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Sun Trust Rbsn Humphrey
Johnson Controls (JCI) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Wells Fargo
Lowe's (LOW) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Sun Trust Rbsn Humphrey
NetScout Systems (NTCT) downgraded to Hold at Wunderlich; tgt lowered to $40
Wynn Resorts (WYNN) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA/Merrill; tgt lowered to $195 from $210
Alibaba (BABA) initiated with a Buy at UBS; tgt $100
Apple (AAPL) target raised to $110 from $96 at Credit Suisse; maintain Neutral
BHP Billiton (BHP) upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at Credit Suisse
F5 Networks (FFIV) initiated with a Outperform at Credit Suisse; tgt $140
General Motors (GM) removed from Conviction Buy list at Goldman
Goodyear Tire (GT) target lowered to $31 from $36 at Goldman; removed from Conviction Buy list; maintain Buy
Michael Kors (KORS) initiated with a Hold at Stifel
Norfolk Southern (NSC) initiated with a Buy at UBS; tgt $130
Union Pacific (UNP) initiated with a Buy at UBS; tgt $123
Ford Motor (F) upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at Buckingham Research
T-Mobile US (TMUS) upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital Mkts; tgt lowered to $35 from $36
Corning (GLW) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA/Merrill; tgt $20
Ford Motor (F) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman
Home Depot (HD) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Sun Trust Rbsn Humphrey
Johnson Controls (JCI) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Wells Fargo
Lowe's (LOW) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Sun Trust Rbsn Humphrey
NetScout Systems (NTCT) downgraded to Hold at Wunderlich; tgt lowered to $40
Wynn Resorts (WYNN) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA/Merrill; tgt lowered to $195 from $210
Alibaba (BABA) initiated with a Buy at UBS; tgt $100
Apple (AAPL) target raised to $110 from $96 at Credit Suisse; maintain Neutral
BHP Billiton (BHP) upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at Credit Suisse
F5 Networks (FFIV) initiated with a Outperform at Credit Suisse; tgt $140
General Motors (GM) removed from Conviction Buy list at Goldman
Goodyear Tire (GT) target lowered to $31 from $36 at Goldman; removed from Conviction Buy list; maintain Buy
Michael Kors (KORS) initiated with a Hold at Stifel
Norfolk Southern (NSC) initiated with a Buy at UBS; tgt $130
Union Pacific (UNP) initiated with a Buy at UBS; tgt $123
Tänased kommentaarid Euroopas:
Lundbeck Raised to Outperform vs Neutral at Credit Suisse
Sanofi Raised to Outperform vs Neutral at Credit Suisse; PT Eu80 to 95 (Close 83,0)
Swedbank Raised to Neutral vs Underperform at Credit Suisse
Linde Upgraded at C. Suisse Amid Focus on Returns, Core Business
•Earnings of industrial gas cos. Are resilient, will support shares in current environment, Credit Suisse says in note; Linde has ability to outperform peers by improving returns, capital mgmt.
• Credit Suisse upgrades Linde to neutral vs underperform, PT EU153 vs EU140
• Brokerage says co. may follow “back to basics” strategy under new CEO
• Narrow gap in returns vs Air Liquide, peers with focus on core business; expects Linde to close ROCE gap to peers by 90bps by 2016, improve FCF generation
• Asset swaps with other players to improve asset utilizations, cost efficiencies
• Says capital discipline may lead to increase in div. payout
• Says positives mitigate possible S/T earnings risk; notes earnings headwinds for 2015 are moderating ex macro conditions
Sanitec Cut to Hold at Nordea
SSAB Raised to Neutral at BofAML
Kloeckner Cut to Underperform at BofAML
Aurubis Raised to Buy at BofAML
Gamesa Added to Europe 1 List at BofAML
Aveva Valuation Is too Low, Credit Suisse Says; Up to Outperform (Close 1364p)
•Share price decline improves risk/reward profile, makes it more attractive for shareholders even though the momentum in oil, gas sector remains mixed, Credit Suisse says in note.
• Raises stock to outperform from neutral; PT raised 6% to 1800p
• Stock has fallen -11.4% month-to-date vs a -7.1% fall in the Stoxx 600 Technology index; is down -37% YTD vs a -5.1% fall in the SX8P index
TSB Banking Rated New Sell at Canaccord, PT 230p (Close 261p)
Alstom Raised to Buy vs Hold at SocGen; PT Eu31 (Close 25,5)
Iliad Added to Goldman Conviction Buy List; Stays Buy; PT Eu287 to 266 (Close 171,1)
Telenet Removed From Goldman Conviction Buy List; Stays Buy
CEZ Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT Czk 650 (Close 596,5)
BBVA Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT Eu9,2 to 10,5 (Close 9,03)
Swiss Re Raised to Marketperform vs Underperform at Bernstein; PT Sfr70 to 74 (Close 73,05)
Rosneft Cut to Neutral vs Buy at BofAML
Vestas Wind Systems Raised to Neutral vs Underperform at BofAML
Vestas Wind Raised to Neutral vs Underperform at Exane
Vestas Wind Raised to Neutral vs Underperform at Credit Suisse; PT Dkr175 to 185 (Close 178,1)
(1) Concerns on average selling prices overdone: The influx of US orders has correlated with a fall in average selling prices. We believe this is due to a mix towards 'supply-only' orders, and this should not impact absolute margins. We also note the euro has weakened versus the dollar in the past 3 months, meaning the euro value of the backlog could rise at Q3 results; (2) Weak 2016 already in our forecasts: We expect 2016 deliveries for the group to be weak, at c5.0GW (versus the LT average of c5.5GW) given US developers have pulled forward projects into 2015. If the subsidy is not extended, then there could be a further slowdown, meaning just c4.0GW of deliveries in 2016; (3) No longer pricing in % EBITDA margins above previous peaks: We believe a high D&A charge— driven by legacy investments—means EBITDA (rather than EBIT) margins are more appropriate to analyse Vestas. We forecast c13% EBITDA margins (the 2008 peak) and do not believe they can go higher from here on.
Aveva Raised to Outperform vs Neutral at Credit Suisse; PT 1700p to 1800p (CLose 1364)
• Following the recent profits warning, we downgraded FY15E profits by 22%. Having taken a detailed review of our forecasts, we downgrade profits by a further 3%. Consensus has not fully settled, but we believe this takes us c10% below consensus.
• Much of the investor debate has focused around the non-recurrence of supposedly recurring rental revenues and we forecast a 33% reduction in 1H15 rentals. However, much of this relates to FX, timing differences and accounting treatments. On an underlying basis we think the decline is closer to 5%. That is not ideal, but it is a far more resilient message than investor fears.
Lufthansa Rated Hold at Cantor; Was Under Review
Hargreaves Lansdown Raised to Neutral vs Sell at Citi
HeidelbergCement Raised to Neutral vs Sell at UBS
Ladbrokes Raised to Equalweight vs Underweight at Barclays
CGG Resumed Underweight at Barclays
Leoni Raised to Neutral vs Underperform at Exane
K+S Raised to Overweight vs Equalweight at Barclays
Solvay Raised to Overweight vs Equalweight at Barclays
Air Liquide Raised to Equalweight vs Underweight at Barclays
Daimler Raised to Overweight vs Underweight at Barclays
SABMiller Cut to Underperform at RBC Capital
Heineken’s Growth Outlook Deserves a Premium, Goldman Says
• Heineken’s exceptional growth vs the consumer staples sector warrants a premium, Goldman says, raises to buy vs sell.
• Co. has enhanced its geographic exposure, shifting away from tough European mkts toward emerging mkts that offer better growth, margins
• Raises ests. for organic growth, margin growth, M&A, sees 2014-2016 avg. EPS growth of 14% vs ~10% for staples cos. covered
• PT raised ~35% to EU69 vs EU51 (implies ~22% upside)
• Next catalyst: 3Q sales Oct. 22
Bayer’s growth potential, pipeline undervalued, valuation into 2015 “compelling” with at least
17% potential upside, according to JPMorgan note.
• JPMorgan rates overweight vs not rated, PT EU120
• Sees Pharma Ebitda CAGR of 10% in 2014-19 led by growth of key launches (Xarelto, Eylea, Xofigo, Stivarga, Adempas)
• Expects further longer-term upgrades as data from new products is released
• Potential 2015 weakness at CropScience, MaterialScience already reflected in ests.
• Sees “solid” 3Q, 2014 Ebitda forecast raised to “mid single-digit growth” after inclusion of Merck Consumer business in 4Q
Lundbeck Raised to Outperform vs Neutral at Credit Suisse
Sanofi Raised to Outperform vs Neutral at Credit Suisse; PT Eu80 to 95 (Close 83,0)
Swedbank Raised to Neutral vs Underperform at Credit Suisse
Linde Upgraded at C. Suisse Amid Focus on Returns, Core Business
•Earnings of industrial gas cos. Are resilient, will support shares in current environment, Credit Suisse says in note; Linde has ability to outperform peers by improving returns, capital mgmt.
• Credit Suisse upgrades Linde to neutral vs underperform, PT EU153 vs EU140
• Brokerage says co. may follow “back to basics” strategy under new CEO
• Narrow gap in returns vs Air Liquide, peers with focus on core business; expects Linde to close ROCE gap to peers by 90bps by 2016, improve FCF generation
• Asset swaps with other players to improve asset utilizations, cost efficiencies
• Says capital discipline may lead to increase in div. payout
• Says positives mitigate possible S/T earnings risk; notes earnings headwinds for 2015 are moderating ex macro conditions
Sanitec Cut to Hold at Nordea
SSAB Raised to Neutral at BofAML
Kloeckner Cut to Underperform at BofAML
Aurubis Raised to Buy at BofAML
Gamesa Added to Europe 1 List at BofAML
Aveva Valuation Is too Low, Credit Suisse Says; Up to Outperform (Close 1364p)
•Share price decline improves risk/reward profile, makes it more attractive for shareholders even though the momentum in oil, gas sector remains mixed, Credit Suisse says in note.
• Raises stock to outperform from neutral; PT raised 6% to 1800p
• Stock has fallen -11.4% month-to-date vs a -7.1% fall in the Stoxx 600 Technology index; is down -37% YTD vs a -5.1% fall in the SX8P index
TSB Banking Rated New Sell at Canaccord, PT 230p (Close 261p)
Alstom Raised to Buy vs Hold at SocGen; PT Eu31 (Close 25,5)
Iliad Added to Goldman Conviction Buy List; Stays Buy; PT Eu287 to 266 (Close 171,1)
Telenet Removed From Goldman Conviction Buy List; Stays Buy
CEZ Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT Czk 650 (Close 596,5)
BBVA Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT Eu9,2 to 10,5 (Close 9,03)
Swiss Re Raised to Marketperform vs Underperform at Bernstein; PT Sfr70 to 74 (Close 73,05)
Rosneft Cut to Neutral vs Buy at BofAML
Vestas Wind Systems Raised to Neutral vs Underperform at BofAML
Vestas Wind Raised to Neutral vs Underperform at Exane
Vestas Wind Raised to Neutral vs Underperform at Credit Suisse; PT Dkr175 to 185 (Close 178,1)
(1) Concerns on average selling prices overdone: The influx of US orders has correlated with a fall in average selling prices. We believe this is due to a mix towards 'supply-only' orders, and this should not impact absolute margins. We also note the euro has weakened versus the dollar in the past 3 months, meaning the euro value of the backlog could rise at Q3 results; (2) Weak 2016 already in our forecasts: We expect 2016 deliveries for the group to be weak, at c5.0GW (versus the LT average of c5.5GW) given US developers have pulled forward projects into 2015. If the subsidy is not extended, then there could be a further slowdown, meaning just c4.0GW of deliveries in 2016; (3) No longer pricing in % EBITDA margins above previous peaks: We believe a high D&A charge— driven by legacy investments—means EBITDA (rather than EBIT) margins are more appropriate to analyse Vestas. We forecast c13% EBITDA margins (the 2008 peak) and do not believe they can go higher from here on.
Aveva Raised to Outperform vs Neutral at Credit Suisse; PT 1700p to 1800p (CLose 1364)
• Following the recent profits warning, we downgraded FY15E profits by 22%. Having taken a detailed review of our forecasts, we downgrade profits by a further 3%. Consensus has not fully settled, but we believe this takes us c10% below consensus.
• Much of the investor debate has focused around the non-recurrence of supposedly recurring rental revenues and we forecast a 33% reduction in 1H15 rentals. However, much of this relates to FX, timing differences and accounting treatments. On an underlying basis we think the decline is closer to 5%. That is not ideal, but it is a far more resilient message than investor fears.
Lufthansa Rated Hold at Cantor; Was Under Review
Hargreaves Lansdown Raised to Neutral vs Sell at Citi
HeidelbergCement Raised to Neutral vs Sell at UBS
Ladbrokes Raised to Equalweight vs Underweight at Barclays
CGG Resumed Underweight at Barclays
Leoni Raised to Neutral vs Underperform at Exane
K+S Raised to Overweight vs Equalweight at Barclays
Solvay Raised to Overweight vs Equalweight at Barclays
Air Liquide Raised to Equalweight vs Underweight at Barclays
Daimler Raised to Overweight vs Underweight at Barclays
SABMiller Cut to Underperform at RBC Capital
Heineken’s Growth Outlook Deserves a Premium, Goldman Says
• Heineken’s exceptional growth vs the consumer staples sector warrants a premium, Goldman says, raises to buy vs sell.
• Co. has enhanced its geographic exposure, shifting away from tough European mkts toward emerging mkts that offer better growth, margins
• Raises ests. for organic growth, margin growth, M&A, sees 2014-2016 avg. EPS growth of 14% vs ~10% for staples cos. covered
• PT raised ~35% to EU69 vs EU51 (implies ~22% upside)
• Next catalyst: 3Q sales Oct. 22
Bayer’s growth potential, pipeline undervalued, valuation into 2015 “compelling” with at least
17% potential upside, according to JPMorgan note.
• JPMorgan rates overweight vs not rated, PT EU120
• Sees Pharma Ebitda CAGR of 10% in 2014-19 led by growth of key launches (Xarelto, Eylea, Xofigo, Stivarga, Adempas)
• Expects further longer-term upgrades as data from new products is released
• Potential 2015 weakness at CropScience, MaterialScience already reflected in ests.
• Sees “solid” 3Q, 2014 Ebitda forecast raised to “mid single-digit growth” after inclusion of Merck Consumer business in 4Q
Analüüsimajade kommentaarid täna Euroopas:
GKN Raised to Outperform vs Neutral at Exane
Fortum Raised to Sell From Strong Sell at Nordea; PT eu15,3 (Close 17,72)
Aveva Group Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT 1760p (Close 1372)
Huhtamaeki Raised to Buy at Nordea; PT Eu20,4 to 22 (Close 19,33)
TeliaSonera Raised to Buy vs Neutral at Swedbank; PT Sek51,0 to 52 (Close 45,8)
Electrolux Raised to Neutral vs Reduce at Swedbank
AstraZeneca Added to Europe 1 List at BofAML
Vivendi Resumed Buy at BofAML, PT Eu20 (Close 17,59)
Seadrill Cut to Reduce vs Neutral at Nomura; PT Nok215 to 120 (Close 153,4)
K+S Raised to Neutral vs Reduce at Nomura; PT Eu24 (Close 19,6)
DSM Cut to Neutral vs Buy at Nomura; PT eu63 to 58 (Close 45,4)
CGG Cut to Reduce vs Neutral at Nomura; PT Eu9 to 5,0 (Close 6,29)
Connect Group Raised to Overweight vs Neutral at JPMorgan; PT 183p to 170p (Close 164)
Akzo Nobel Raised to Buy vs Neutral at Nomura; PT Eu62 to 63 (Close 47,63)
Iliad Resumed Overweight at HSBC; PT Eu210 (Close 164,3)
Havas Raised to Overweight vs Neutral at HSBC; PT Eu7,1 to 6,6 (Close 5,52)
Danske Bank Raised to Hold vs Sell at SocGen; PT Dkk140 to 150 (Close 145,3)
H&M Raised to Neutral vs Sell at Goldman Sachs; PT Sek245 to 281 (Close 272,5)
Ferrexpo Removed From UBS Least Preferred List
Antofagasta Raised to Neutral vs Sell at UBS
Rostelecom Cut to Underweight vs Equalweight at Barclays; PT Rub107 (Close 102,1)
GKN Raised to Outperform vs Neutral at Exane
Fortum Raised to Sell From Strong Sell at Nordea; PT eu15,3 (Close 17,72)
Aveva Group Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT 1760p (Close 1372)
Huhtamaeki Raised to Buy at Nordea; PT Eu20,4 to 22 (Close 19,33)
TeliaSonera Raised to Buy vs Neutral at Swedbank; PT Sek51,0 to 52 (Close 45,8)
Electrolux Raised to Neutral vs Reduce at Swedbank
AstraZeneca Added to Europe 1 List at BofAML
Vivendi Resumed Buy at BofAML, PT Eu20 (Close 17,59)
Seadrill Cut to Reduce vs Neutral at Nomura; PT Nok215 to 120 (Close 153,4)
K+S Raised to Neutral vs Reduce at Nomura; PT Eu24 (Close 19,6)
DSM Cut to Neutral vs Buy at Nomura; PT eu63 to 58 (Close 45,4)
CGG Cut to Reduce vs Neutral at Nomura; PT Eu9 to 5,0 (Close 6,29)
Connect Group Raised to Overweight vs Neutral at JPMorgan; PT 183p to 170p (Close 164)
Akzo Nobel Raised to Buy vs Neutral at Nomura; PT Eu62 to 63 (Close 47,63)
Iliad Resumed Overweight at HSBC; PT Eu210 (Close 164,3)
Havas Raised to Overweight vs Neutral at HSBC; PT Eu7,1 to 6,6 (Close 5,52)
Danske Bank Raised to Hold vs Sell at SocGen; PT Dkk140 to 150 (Close 145,3)
H&M Raised to Neutral vs Sell at Goldman Sachs; PT Sek245 to 281 (Close 272,5)
Ferrexpo Removed From UBS Least Preferred List
Antofagasta Raised to Neutral vs Sell at UBS
Rostelecom Cut to Underweight vs Equalweight at Barclays; PT Rub107 (Close 102,1)
Tänased analüüsimajade reitingumuutused ja kommentaarid USA ettevõtete kohta:
American Express (AXP) upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at JP Morgan; tgt lowered to $90 from $95
Bristol-Myers (BMY) upgraded to Outperform from Mkt Perform at BMO Capital Mkts
Citigroup (C) upgraded to Hold at Argus
CSX (CSX) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse; tgt raised to $38 from $33
Netflix (NFLX) upgraded to Hold from Underperform at Jefferies; tgt lowered to $300 from $350
Tiffany & Co (TIF) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Macquarie
Time Warner (TWX) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA/Merrill; tgt $85
Wells Fargo (WFC) upgraded to Buy at Argus; tgt $54
Akamai Tech (AKAM) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Wells Fargo
eBay downgraded (EBAY) to Sector Perform at RBC Capital Mkts following earnings; tgt lowered to $55
Netflix (NFLX) downgraded to Fair Value from Buy at CRT Capital
Norfolk Southern (NSC) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse; tgt lowered to $115 from $122
Viacom (VIAB) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Guggenheim; downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at BofA/Merrill
Walt Disney (DIS) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Guggenheim
lululemon athletica (LULU) assumed with an Underperform from Neutral at Macquarie; tgt $34
Nordstrom (JWN) assumed with a Neutral from Outperform at Macqaurie; tgt lowered to $70 from $77
American Express (AXP) upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at JP Morgan; tgt lowered to $90 from $95
Bristol-Myers (BMY) upgraded to Outperform from Mkt Perform at BMO Capital Mkts
Citigroup (C) upgraded to Hold at Argus
CSX (CSX) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse; tgt raised to $38 from $33
Netflix (NFLX) upgraded to Hold from Underperform at Jefferies; tgt lowered to $300 from $350
Tiffany & Co (TIF) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Macquarie
Time Warner (TWX) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA/Merrill; tgt $85
Wells Fargo (WFC) upgraded to Buy at Argus; tgt $54
Akamai Tech (AKAM) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Wells Fargo
eBay downgraded (EBAY) to Sector Perform at RBC Capital Mkts following earnings; tgt lowered to $55
Netflix (NFLX) downgraded to Fair Value from Buy at CRT Capital
Norfolk Southern (NSC) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse; tgt lowered to $115 from $122
Viacom (VIAB) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Guggenheim; downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at BofA/Merrill
Walt Disney (DIS) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Guggenheim
lululemon athletica (LULU) assumed with an Underperform from Neutral at Macquarie; tgt $34
Nordstrom (JWN) assumed with a Neutral from Outperform at Macqaurie; tgt lowered to $70 from $77
Soovitused Euroopas:
Accor Raised to Outerform vs Marketperform at Raymond James; PT Eu37 (Close 30,29)
Rheinmetall Cut to Neutral vs Outperform at Exane
Fabege Raised to Buy vs Hold at DNB; PT Sek110 to 112 (Close 81,95)
Chr Hansen Raised to Buy vs Hold at DNB; PT Dkk254,6 to 255 (Close 205,6)
Getinge Raised to Buy vs Neutral at Swedbank; PT Sek180 (Close 148,2)
Getinge Raised to Hold at DNB; PT Sek170 to 155 (Close 148,2)
Atea Raised to Buy vs Hold at DNB; PT Nok75 to 72 (Close 65,25)
GDF Suez Raised to Buy vs Neutral at BofAML
Adidas Cut to Underperform vs Neutral at BofAML
Man Group Raised to Buy at UBS on Upside from Numeric,
• Man Group raised from neutral as Numeric acquisition offers upside potential, AHL now has potential for inflows that aren’t yet reflected in consensus estimates, UBS says in note today.
• UBS: AHL risk-reward interesting even as performace hard to predict; AHL may also have windfall performance fee
• Numeric has both structural appeal, L/T optionality
• Boosts Man scale in U.S., has institutional client base, margin accretion potential
• Positive there were no client redemptions at Numeric since acquisition was announced
Carrefour Raised to Neutral vs Underperform at Exane
Spirax-Sarco Rated New Equalweight at Morgan Stanley, PT 2,810p (Close 2688)
Tullow Oil Raised to Buy vs Hold at SocGen; PT 865p to 700p (Close 483p)
Faurecia Raised to Buy vs Hold at SocGen; PT Eu31 to 28 (Close 22,845)
Ferrexpo Raised to Neutral vs Underweight at JPMorgan
Technicolor Cut to Equalweight vs Overweight: Morgan Stanley
Royal Mail Raised to Equalweight vs Underweight: Morgan Stanley
Portugal Telecom Resumed Underweight at Morgan Stanley
Bodycote Rated New Overweight at Morgan Stanley, PT 740p (Close 576)
UniCredit Removed From Morgan Stanley Europe Best Ideas
Marks & Spencer Added to Morgan Stanley Europe Best Ideas
Viadeo Rated New Buy at SocGen, PT Eu16.3 (Close 7,7)
Akzo Nobel Raised to Buy vs Hold at ING
Perform Cut to Hold vs Buy at Jefferies
Moneysupermarket.com Cut to Hold vs Buy at Jefferies
Ren Cut to Neutral vs Buy at Goldman 7
CSR Raised to Equalweight vs Underweight at Barclays
Accor Raised to Outerform vs Marketperform at Raymond James; PT Eu37 (Close 30,29)
Rheinmetall Cut to Neutral vs Outperform at Exane
Fabege Raised to Buy vs Hold at DNB; PT Sek110 to 112 (Close 81,95)
Chr Hansen Raised to Buy vs Hold at DNB; PT Dkk254,6 to 255 (Close 205,6)
Getinge Raised to Buy vs Neutral at Swedbank; PT Sek180 (Close 148,2)
Getinge Raised to Hold at DNB; PT Sek170 to 155 (Close 148,2)
Atea Raised to Buy vs Hold at DNB; PT Nok75 to 72 (Close 65,25)
GDF Suez Raised to Buy vs Neutral at BofAML
Adidas Cut to Underperform vs Neutral at BofAML
Man Group Raised to Buy at UBS on Upside from Numeric,
• Man Group raised from neutral as Numeric acquisition offers upside potential, AHL now has potential for inflows that aren’t yet reflected in consensus estimates, UBS says in note today.
• UBS: AHL risk-reward interesting even as performace hard to predict; AHL may also have windfall performance fee
• Numeric has both structural appeal, L/T optionality
• Boosts Man scale in U.S., has institutional client base, margin accretion potential
• Positive there were no client redemptions at Numeric since acquisition was announced
Carrefour Raised to Neutral vs Underperform at Exane
Spirax-Sarco Rated New Equalweight at Morgan Stanley, PT 2,810p (Close 2688)
Tullow Oil Raised to Buy vs Hold at SocGen; PT 865p to 700p (Close 483p)
Faurecia Raised to Buy vs Hold at SocGen; PT Eu31 to 28 (Close 22,845)
Ferrexpo Raised to Neutral vs Underweight at JPMorgan
Technicolor Cut to Equalweight vs Overweight: Morgan Stanley
Royal Mail Raised to Equalweight vs Underweight: Morgan Stanley
Portugal Telecom Resumed Underweight at Morgan Stanley
Bodycote Rated New Overweight at Morgan Stanley, PT 740p (Close 576)
UniCredit Removed From Morgan Stanley Europe Best Ideas
Marks & Spencer Added to Morgan Stanley Europe Best Ideas
Viadeo Rated New Buy at SocGen, PT Eu16.3 (Close 7,7)
Akzo Nobel Raised to Buy vs Hold at ING
Perform Cut to Hold vs Buy at Jefferies
Moneysupermarket.com Cut to Hold vs Buy at Jefferies
Ren Cut to Neutral vs Buy at Goldman 7
CSR Raised to Equalweight vs Underweight at Barclays
Tänased analüüsimajade reitingumuutused ja kommentaarid USA ettevõtete kohta:
Advanced Micro (AMD) upgraded to Sector Perform from Underperform at Pacific Crest
Exelon (EXC) upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Citigroup; tgt raised to $37 from $30
Fifth Third (FITB) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup; tgt lowered to $23 from $24
Goldman Sachs (GS) upgraded to Outperform from Mkt Perform at Keefe Bruyette; tgt raised to $195 from $173
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) upgraded to Outperform at Leerink Partners; tgt raised to $560
Xilinx (XLNX) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Wells Fargo
Advanced Micro (AMD) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Canaccord Genuity; tgt lowered to $2.75 from $4.50
Urban Outfitters (URBN) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman, tgt lowered to $31 from $44, removed from America's Buy list; downgraded to Equal-Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley; tgt lowered to $31 from $44
Baxter (BAX) target lowered to $72 at RBC Capital Mkts
Fifth Third (FITB) target lowered to $22 at RBC Capital Mkts
Xilinx (XLNX) target lowered to $43 at Topeka Capital Markets
Advanced Micro (AMD) upgraded to Sector Perform from Underperform at Pacific Crest
Exelon (EXC) upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Citigroup; tgt raised to $37 from $30
Fifth Third (FITB) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup; tgt lowered to $23 from $24
Goldman Sachs (GS) upgraded to Outperform from Mkt Perform at Keefe Bruyette; tgt raised to $195 from $173
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) upgraded to Outperform at Leerink Partners; tgt raised to $560
Xilinx (XLNX) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Wells Fargo
Advanced Micro (AMD) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Canaccord Genuity; tgt lowered to $2.75 from $4.50
Urban Outfitters (URBN) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman, tgt lowered to $31 from $44, removed from America's Buy list; downgraded to Equal-Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley; tgt lowered to $31 from $44
Baxter (BAX) target lowered to $72 at RBC Capital Mkts
Fifth Third (FITB) target lowered to $22 at RBC Capital Mkts
Xilinx (XLNX) target lowered to $43 at Topeka Capital Markets
Mõned analüütikute reitingumuudatused Euroopas:
Nutreco Changed to Accept Offer vs Hold at KBC
Travis Perkins Cut to Neutral From Outperform at Davy
Gemalto’s Premium Valuation Now Unwarranted, Barclays Says
• Apple’s inclusion of an embedded SIM in new iPads puts Gemalto’s L/T growth in doubt, meaning its premium valuation isn’t warranted, Barclays says
• Barclays: Gemalto’s mobile profit growth likely to remain stable and miss co.’s L/T target If embedded SIMs become more widespread, co.’s hardware sales will be negatively impacted, while its software rev. should benefit as co.’s trusted service manager service will still be needed
• Cuts stock to underweight from overweight and lowers its PT by 43% to EU50 (~15% downside)
Stabilus SA Rated New Buy at H&a, PT Eu29 10:01
Vestas Raised to Buy From Hold at Nordea; PT Dkk220 vs Dkk295
• Vestas Raised to Buy at Nordea After 40% Drop Since June
• Nordea says risk/reward now more favorable even without PTC extension in U.S., Nordea says in note.
• Nordea: Vestas doesn’t need PTC to be profitable. Expects “good 3Q results,” Vestas to upgrade guidance before year-end.
• NOTE: Vestas raised to neutral at Exane, Credit Suisse, BofAML last week.
Michelin Cut to Underperform vs Buy at BofAML
Pirelli Raised to Buy vs Underperform at BofAML
L’oreal Raised to Buy vs Neutral at Natixis
Ferrexpo Raised to Buy at Wood & Company
Evonik Upgraded at Citi on Better Outlook, Stronger Methionine.
• Citi sees significant upside to Evonik’s share price, solid L/T potential, according to note; highlights liquidity limited (free float of 14%), may be tough to build holding
• Upgrades to buy vs neutral, PT EU30 vs EU28
• Says methionine prices bouncing strongly due to market tightness
• Projected oversupply in 2015 now seems unlikely, pricing to remain strong next year. Increase in methionine prices, rising production may add EU300m to Ebitda next year
• Raises 2015, 2016 ests. by 13%, 4% respectively. NOTE: co. due to report 3Q on Oct. 30
Rolls-Royce Cut to Sector Perform vs Outperform at RBC
Kazakhmys Cut to Sell vs Neutral at Bryan Garnier
Ferrexpo Cut to Add vs Buy at Bryan Garnier
Centamin Raised to Buy vs Neutral at Bryan Garnier 9:14
Gem Diamonds Raised to Buy vs Add at Bryan Garnier 9:14
Tieto Raised to Buy From Hold at Nordea; PT Eu21 9:10
Turk Telekom Raised to Buy vs Hold at Deutsche Bank
SocGen Lists 23 European Buy-Rated Underperforming Stocks. Market corrections offer opportunities to buy at attractive price, Societe Generale strategists Roland Kaloyan and Kevin Redureau write in client note. Lists stocks with positive earnings momentum that have “strongly underperformed” since start of correction on Sept. 19: BCP -26%, Galp Energia -20%, Commerzbank -20%, ArcelorMittal -17%, ACS -17%, Valeo -17%, ING -16%, Siemens -15%, Royal Dutch Shell -15%, ENEL -15%, Repsol -15%, DNB -15%, AXA -15%, Deutsche Telekom -14%, Cap Gemini -14%, UBI -14%, CaixaBank -14%, Credit Agricole -14%, Solvay -14%, Thales -14%, Volkswagen -13%, Intesa Sanpaolo -13%, Akzo Nobel -13%
Kazakhmys Cut to Sell vs Neutral at Westhouse
Hochschild Mining Cut to Neutral vs Add at Westhouse
Hugo Boss Raised to Overweight vs Neutral at HSBC
Severstal Raised to Overweight vs Neutral at JPMorgan
Nutreco Changed to Accept Offer vs Hold at KBC
Travis Perkins Cut to Neutral From Outperform at Davy
Gemalto’s Premium Valuation Now Unwarranted, Barclays Says
• Apple’s inclusion of an embedded SIM in new iPads puts Gemalto’s L/T growth in doubt, meaning its premium valuation isn’t warranted, Barclays says
• Barclays: Gemalto’s mobile profit growth likely to remain stable and miss co.’s L/T target If embedded SIMs become more widespread, co.’s hardware sales will be negatively impacted, while its software rev. should benefit as co.’s trusted service manager service will still be needed
• Cuts stock to underweight from overweight and lowers its PT by 43% to EU50 (~15% downside)
Stabilus SA Rated New Buy at H&a, PT Eu29 10:01
Vestas Raised to Buy From Hold at Nordea; PT Dkk220 vs Dkk295
• Vestas Raised to Buy at Nordea After 40% Drop Since June
• Nordea says risk/reward now more favorable even without PTC extension in U.S., Nordea says in note.
• Nordea: Vestas doesn’t need PTC to be profitable. Expects “good 3Q results,” Vestas to upgrade guidance before year-end.
• NOTE: Vestas raised to neutral at Exane, Credit Suisse, BofAML last week.
Michelin Cut to Underperform vs Buy at BofAML
Pirelli Raised to Buy vs Underperform at BofAML
L’oreal Raised to Buy vs Neutral at Natixis
Ferrexpo Raised to Buy at Wood & Company
Evonik Upgraded at Citi on Better Outlook, Stronger Methionine.
• Citi sees significant upside to Evonik’s share price, solid L/T potential, according to note; highlights liquidity limited (free float of 14%), may be tough to build holding
• Upgrades to buy vs neutral, PT EU30 vs EU28
• Says methionine prices bouncing strongly due to market tightness
• Projected oversupply in 2015 now seems unlikely, pricing to remain strong next year. Increase in methionine prices, rising production may add EU300m to Ebitda next year
• Raises 2015, 2016 ests. by 13%, 4% respectively. NOTE: co. due to report 3Q on Oct. 30
Rolls-Royce Cut to Sector Perform vs Outperform at RBC
Kazakhmys Cut to Sell vs Neutral at Bryan Garnier
Ferrexpo Cut to Add vs Buy at Bryan Garnier
Centamin Raised to Buy vs Neutral at Bryan Garnier 9:14
Gem Diamonds Raised to Buy vs Add at Bryan Garnier 9:14
Tieto Raised to Buy From Hold at Nordea; PT Eu21 9:10
Turk Telekom Raised to Buy vs Hold at Deutsche Bank
SocGen Lists 23 European Buy-Rated Underperforming Stocks. Market corrections offer opportunities to buy at attractive price, Societe Generale strategists Roland Kaloyan and Kevin Redureau write in client note. Lists stocks with positive earnings momentum that have “strongly underperformed” since start of correction on Sept. 19: BCP -26%, Galp Energia -20%, Commerzbank -20%, ArcelorMittal -17%, ACS -17%, Valeo -17%, ING -16%, Siemens -15%, Royal Dutch Shell -15%, ENEL -15%, Repsol -15%, DNB -15%, AXA -15%, Deutsche Telekom -14%, Cap Gemini -14%, UBI -14%, CaixaBank -14%, Credit Agricole -14%, Solvay -14%, Thales -14%, Volkswagen -13%, Intesa Sanpaolo -13%, Akzo Nobel -13%
Kazakhmys Cut to Sell vs Neutral at Westhouse
Hochschild Mining Cut to Neutral vs Add at Westhouse
Hugo Boss Raised to Overweight vs Neutral at HSBC
Severstal Raised to Overweight vs Neutral at JPMorgan
Tänased analüüsimajade reitingumuutused ja kommentaarid USA ettevõtete kohta:
American Intl (AIG) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank; tgt raised to $60 from $59
Comerica (CMA) upgraded to Mkt Perform from Underperform at Bernstein; tgt raised to $47 from $44
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Citigroup
KeyCorp (KEY) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank
Micron (MU) upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at Pacific Crest
Cliffs Natural Resources (CLF) downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Citigroup
Mead Johnson Nutrition (MJN) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank
Newmont Mining (NEM) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup
PNC (PNC) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank; tgt lowered to $87 from $94
Comerica (CMA) target lowered to $51 at RBC Capital Mkts
E*TRADE (ETFC) added to Conviction Buy List at Goldman; tgt $25
Schlumberger (SLB) target lowered to $117 at RBC Capital Mkts
T-Mobile US (TMUS) resumed with a Overweight at Morgan Stanley; tgt $31
Viacom (VIAB) target lowered to $98 at Wunderlich
American Intl (AIG) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank; tgt raised to $60 from $59
Comerica (CMA) upgraded to Mkt Perform from Underperform at Bernstein; tgt raised to $47 from $44
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Citigroup
KeyCorp (KEY) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank
Micron (MU) upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at Pacific Crest
Cliffs Natural Resources (CLF) downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Citigroup
Mead Johnson Nutrition (MJN) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank
Newmont Mining (NEM) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup
PNC (PNC) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank; tgt lowered to $87 from $94
Comerica (CMA) target lowered to $51 at RBC Capital Mkts
E*TRADE (ETFC) added to Conviction Buy List at Goldman; tgt $25
Schlumberger (SLB) target lowered to $117 at RBC Capital Mkts
T-Mobile US (TMUS) resumed with a Overweight at Morgan Stanley; tgt $31
Viacom (VIAB) target lowered to $98 at Wunderlich
Analüütikute kommentaarid täna Euroopas:
APR Energy Downgraded at Morgan Stanley on Libya Concern (Close 510p)
• Situation in Libya raises potential that APR will exit country, Morgan Stanley says in note.
• Demobilizing or selling fleet carries major risk, while recent litigation adds further uncertainty
• Morgan Stanley’s 2014 rev., Ebitda ests. are ~40% and ~50% exposed to Libya
• Downgrades to equalweight from overweight, cuts PT to 525p from 600p
Rentokil Reinstated Buy at BofAML
Icade Raised to Outperform vs Netural at Exane
KPN Reinitiated Buy at Deutsche Bank, PT Eu2.9 (Close 2,27)
MTG Raised to Strong Buy From Buy at Nordea; PT Sek300 (Close 209,7)
Konecranes Raised to Overweight vs Neutral at HSBC; PT Eu26 to 25,0 (Close 20,05)
Andritz Raised to Overweight vs Neutral at HSBC; PT Eu46 to 50 (Close 37,14)
Bureau Veritas Raised to Hold vs Sell at Deutsche Bank; PT 18,5 to 16,4 (Close 17,3)
N Brown Cut to Neutral vs Outperform at Credit Suisse
Standard Life Reinstated Overweight at JPMorgan, PT 460p (Close 378,8p)
APR Energy Cut to Equalweight vs Overweight at Morgan Stanley
Galenica Raised to Neutral vs Sell at UBS
Philips Cut to Neutral vs Buy at UBS
Valora Raised to Neutral vs Sell at UBS
OHL Raised to Buy vs Neutral at UBS
Stada Raised to Equalweight vs Underweight at Barclays
Deutsche Post Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT Eu27,0 to 25,5 (Close 23,11)
• Softening macro-economic conditions and restructuring costs add risk to Deutsche Post medium-term consensus ests., says Deutsche Bank in note.
• 2014/15 Ebit ests. cut 1.9%/5.1%
• Expect 3Q trends similar to 2Q; surplus cash to be returned to shareholders
• Cut to hold from buy, PT to EU25.5 from EU27: Deutsche Bank
• NOTE: Raised to buy vs neutral at UBS yday
• Co. reports 3Q on Nov. 12
APR Energy Downgraded at Morgan Stanley on Libya Concern (Close 510p)
• Situation in Libya raises potential that APR will exit country, Morgan Stanley says in note.
• Demobilizing or selling fleet carries major risk, while recent litigation adds further uncertainty
• Morgan Stanley’s 2014 rev., Ebitda ests. are ~40% and ~50% exposed to Libya
• Downgrades to equalweight from overweight, cuts PT to 525p from 600p
Rentokil Reinstated Buy at BofAML
Icade Raised to Outperform vs Netural at Exane
KPN Reinitiated Buy at Deutsche Bank, PT Eu2.9 (Close 2,27)
MTG Raised to Strong Buy From Buy at Nordea; PT Sek300 (Close 209,7)
Konecranes Raised to Overweight vs Neutral at HSBC; PT Eu26 to 25,0 (Close 20,05)
Andritz Raised to Overweight vs Neutral at HSBC; PT Eu46 to 50 (Close 37,14)
Bureau Veritas Raised to Hold vs Sell at Deutsche Bank; PT 18,5 to 16,4 (Close 17,3)
N Brown Cut to Neutral vs Outperform at Credit Suisse
Standard Life Reinstated Overweight at JPMorgan, PT 460p (Close 378,8p)
APR Energy Cut to Equalweight vs Overweight at Morgan Stanley
Galenica Raised to Neutral vs Sell at UBS
Philips Cut to Neutral vs Buy at UBS
Valora Raised to Neutral vs Sell at UBS
OHL Raised to Buy vs Neutral at UBS
Stada Raised to Equalweight vs Underweight at Barclays
Deutsche Post Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT Eu27,0 to 25,5 (Close 23,11)
• Softening macro-economic conditions and restructuring costs add risk to Deutsche Post medium-term consensus ests., says Deutsche Bank in note.
• 2014/15 Ebit ests. cut 1.9%/5.1%
• Expect 3Q trends similar to 2Q; surplus cash to be returned to shareholders
• Cut to hold from buy, PT to EU25.5 from EU27: Deutsche Bank
• NOTE: Raised to buy vs neutral at UBS yday
• Co. reports 3Q on Nov. 12
Tänased analüüsimajade reitingumuutused ja kommentaarid USA ettevõtete kohta:
EOG Resources (EOG) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Guggenheim
TECO Energy (TE) upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at Macquarie; tgt raised to $18 from $16
AbbVie (ABBV) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Guggenheim
Con Edison (ED) downgraded to Underweight at Morgan Stanley
HCP (HCP) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies; tgt lowered to $45 from $47
IBM (IBM) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Evercore; tgt lowered to $180 from $210
Apple (AAPL) tgt raised to $113 from $110 at BMO Capital Mkts, Outperform; tgt raised to $118 from $104 at Macquarie, Outperform; tgt raised to $143 from $123 at Cantor Fitzgerald, buy
Delphi Automotive (DLPH) initiated with a Positive at Susquehanna; tgt $76
Ford Motor (F) initiated with a Neutral at Susquehanna; tgt $14
Halliburton (HAL) target lowered to $70 at RBC Capital Mkts
IBM (IBM) target lowered to $170 at RBC Capital Mkts; target lowered to $190 at Stifel, maintain Buy
EOG Resources (EOG) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Guggenheim
TECO Energy (TE) upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at Macquarie; tgt raised to $18 from $16
AbbVie (ABBV) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Guggenheim
Con Edison (ED) downgraded to Underweight at Morgan Stanley
HCP (HCP) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies; tgt lowered to $45 from $47
IBM (IBM) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Evercore; tgt lowered to $180 from $210
Apple (AAPL) tgt raised to $113 from $110 at BMO Capital Mkts, Outperform; tgt raised to $118 from $104 at Macquarie, Outperform; tgt raised to $143 from $123 at Cantor Fitzgerald, buy
Delphi Automotive (DLPH) initiated with a Positive at Susquehanna; tgt $76
Ford Motor (F) initiated with a Neutral at Susquehanna; tgt $14
Halliburton (HAL) target lowered to $70 at RBC Capital Mkts
IBM (IBM) target lowered to $170 at RBC Capital Mkts; target lowered to $190 at Stifel, maintain Buy
Mõned analüütikute kommentaarid Euroopast:
Swisscom Rated New Buy at Kepler Cheuvreux, PT Chf570
Pandora Rated New Buy at Kepler Cheuvreux, PT Dk530
Mobistar Raised to Buy vs Neutral at Oddo
AMS Cut to Hold vs Add at Commerzbank
Munich Re Raised to Buy vs Hold at Commerzbank
Resilient Property Cut to Underweight vs Overweight at HSBC
AngloGold Ashanti Cut to Neutral vs Overweight at HSBC
Pan African Resources Raised to Overweight vs Neutral at HSBC
Harmony Gold Mining Raised to Neutral vs Underweight at HSBC
Commerzbank Raised to Neutral vs Underperform at Exane
Bankia Cut to Neutral vs Buy at Citi
Temenos 3Q Was Light, Barclays Says; Cuts Stock to Equalweight
• Market will worry in coming mths about the large license hurdle for 4Q, tough comp for 1Q after the light 3Q, Barclays says in note.
• Barclays: management did a good job in defending 4Q, indicated no hesitation on mega-deals, good visibility on normal deals
• Expects co. to meet 2014 outlook, not likely at the high-end
• Points to growing macro risk to core business, reducing likelihood of upgrades
• Cuts stock to equalweight from overweight; PT cut 29% to CHF29
Kloeckner, Evraz Downgraded at Jefferies on Deteriorating Demand
• Euro economic growth prospects have dropped quickly in recent months, lowers outlook for steel demand growth, attractiveness of volume-led sector plays, Jefferies says in note.
• Jefferies: Sector outlook not all doom and gloom, with improved consolidation, pricing discipline expected, margins may still slowly improve for certain products; reiterates preference for Voestalpine, ThyssenKrupp
• Attractive upside across top picks, Mittal; in 3Q earnings sees most upside to consensus at Thyssen, downside at Salzgitter
• Evraz cut to underperform, Kloeckner to hold
Oriflame Raised to Buy vs Hold at DNB
RBS Raised to Neutral at BofAML
Ferrexpo Cut to Sell at Liberum
OMV Raised to Neutral vs Underperform at Credit Suisse
Telefonica Deutschland Resumed Neutral at JPMorgan
ARM Raised to Buy vs Neutral at UBS
Smith & Nephew Raised to Overweight vs Equalweight at Barclays
BG Group Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT 1,340.00p
Swisscom Rated New Buy at Kepler Cheuvreux, PT Chf570
Pandora Rated New Buy at Kepler Cheuvreux, PT Dk530
Mobistar Raised to Buy vs Neutral at Oddo
AMS Cut to Hold vs Add at Commerzbank
Munich Re Raised to Buy vs Hold at Commerzbank
Resilient Property Cut to Underweight vs Overweight at HSBC
AngloGold Ashanti Cut to Neutral vs Overweight at HSBC
Pan African Resources Raised to Overweight vs Neutral at HSBC
Harmony Gold Mining Raised to Neutral vs Underweight at HSBC
Commerzbank Raised to Neutral vs Underperform at Exane
Bankia Cut to Neutral vs Buy at Citi
Temenos 3Q Was Light, Barclays Says; Cuts Stock to Equalweight
• Market will worry in coming mths about the large license hurdle for 4Q, tough comp for 1Q after the light 3Q, Barclays says in note.
• Barclays: management did a good job in defending 4Q, indicated no hesitation on mega-deals, good visibility on normal deals
• Expects co. to meet 2014 outlook, not likely at the high-end
• Points to growing macro risk to core business, reducing likelihood of upgrades
• Cuts stock to equalweight from overweight; PT cut 29% to CHF29
Kloeckner, Evraz Downgraded at Jefferies on Deteriorating Demand
• Euro economic growth prospects have dropped quickly in recent months, lowers outlook for steel demand growth, attractiveness of volume-led sector plays, Jefferies says in note.
• Jefferies: Sector outlook not all doom and gloom, with improved consolidation, pricing discipline expected, margins may still slowly improve for certain products; reiterates preference for Voestalpine, ThyssenKrupp
• Attractive upside across top picks, Mittal; in 3Q earnings sees most upside to consensus at Thyssen, downside at Salzgitter
• Evraz cut to underperform, Kloeckner to hold
Oriflame Raised to Buy vs Hold at DNB
RBS Raised to Neutral at BofAML
Ferrexpo Cut to Sell at Liberum
OMV Raised to Neutral vs Underperform at Credit Suisse
Telefonica Deutschland Resumed Neutral at JPMorgan
ARM Raised to Buy vs Neutral at UBS
Smith & Nephew Raised to Overweight vs Equalweight at Barclays
BG Group Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT 1,340.00p
Tänased analüüsimajade reitingumuutused ja kommentaarid USA ettevõtete kohta:
•AOL (AOL) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Evercore
•Chesapeake Energy (CHK) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS
•Hess (HES) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS
•Hovnanian (HOV) upgraded to Mkt Perform from Mkt Underperform at JMP Securities
•Texas Instruments (TXN) upgraded to Outperform from Mkt Perform at Bernstein
•Yahoo! (YHOO) upgraded to Outperform at FBR Capital following earnings; tgt raised to $50
•Downgrades •Coca-Cola (KO) downgraded to Sell from Hold at Societe Generale
•Cree (CREE) downgraded to Neutral at DA Davidson following earnings; tgt lowered to $31
•Dean Foods (DF) upgraded to Overweight from Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley
•Omnicom (OMC) downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman; tgt lowered to $64 from $72
•Regions Fincl (RF) downgraded to Outperform from Strong Buy at Raymond James
•VMware (VMW) downgraded to Outperform from Strong Buy at Raymond James; tgt lowered to $100 from $125
•Other •Hess (HES) reinstated with an Equal Weight at Barclays; tgt $104
•Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) target raised to $570 from $560 at Leerink Partners; Outperform
•AOL (AOL) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Evercore
•Chesapeake Energy (CHK) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS
•Hess (HES) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS
•Hovnanian (HOV) upgraded to Mkt Perform from Mkt Underperform at JMP Securities
•Texas Instruments (TXN) upgraded to Outperform from Mkt Perform at Bernstein
•Yahoo! (YHOO) upgraded to Outperform at FBR Capital following earnings; tgt raised to $50
•Downgrades •Coca-Cola (KO) downgraded to Sell from Hold at Societe Generale
•Cree (CREE) downgraded to Neutral at DA Davidson following earnings; tgt lowered to $31
•Dean Foods (DF) upgraded to Overweight from Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley
•Omnicom (OMC) downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman; tgt lowered to $64 from $72
•Regions Fincl (RF) downgraded to Outperform from Strong Buy at Raymond James
•VMware (VMW) downgraded to Outperform from Strong Buy at Raymond James; tgt lowered to $100 from $125
•Other •Hess (HES) reinstated with an Equal Weight at Barclays; tgt $104
•Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) target raised to $570 from $560 at Leerink Partners; Outperform
Tänased analüütikute reitingumuudatused Euroopas:
Investor Raised to Buy vs Neutral at Swedbank
Hexagon Raised to Neutral vs Reduce at Swedbank
Heineken Cut to Neutral vs Buy at Natixis
BIC Raised to Buy vs Neutral at Natixis
Millicom Raised to Buy vs Neutral at Natixis
Kesko Cut to Buy at Nordea
Stora Enso Raised to Hold at Nordea
Berkeley Upgraded at Barclays on London’s Long-Term Prospects
• Berkeley Group upgraded to equalweight from underweight at Barclays, PT raised 1% to 2,581p, in note today.
• Barclays says despite headwinds, London’s growth continues, long-term prospects remain intact, details on proposed “mansion tax” revealed somewhat “watered down” version
• Says based on est. 200p dividend this year stock offers ~8.8% dividend yield
• NOTE: Barclays’ PT implies ~12.2% upside from current share price, is ~7% below avg. analyst PT of ~2,777p
• NOTE: Stock has risen 2.2% month-to-date vs a 2.7% fall in the Stoxx 600 Personal & Household Goods index; is down 13.4% YTD vs a 0.3% fall in the SXQP index
IAG Added to Credit Suisse European Focus List
LSE Raised to Overweight at HSBC to Reflect Russell Acquisition
• LSE raised from neutral, PT increased 13% to 2100p on “convincing potential” for share price to rise, HSBC says in note.
• Russell acquisition has made LSE into best diversified exchange group by revenue
• Raises ests. to include Russell index business and Russell asset management unit
• Sees index revenue growth of 10% for next years, notes consensus expects even more
• Says not clear if Russell asset mangement business will be kept or sold
Investor Raised to Buy vs Neutral at Swedbank
Hexagon Raised to Neutral vs Reduce at Swedbank
Heineken Cut to Neutral vs Buy at Natixis
BIC Raised to Buy vs Neutral at Natixis
Millicom Raised to Buy vs Neutral at Natixis
Kesko Cut to Buy at Nordea
Stora Enso Raised to Hold at Nordea
Berkeley Upgraded at Barclays on London’s Long-Term Prospects
• Berkeley Group upgraded to equalweight from underweight at Barclays, PT raised 1% to 2,581p, in note today.
• Barclays says despite headwinds, London’s growth continues, long-term prospects remain intact, details on proposed “mansion tax” revealed somewhat “watered down” version
• Says based on est. 200p dividend this year stock offers ~8.8% dividend yield
• NOTE: Barclays’ PT implies ~12.2% upside from current share price, is ~7% below avg. analyst PT of ~2,777p
• NOTE: Stock has risen 2.2% month-to-date vs a 2.7% fall in the Stoxx 600 Personal & Household Goods index; is down 13.4% YTD vs a 0.3% fall in the SXQP index
IAG Added to Credit Suisse European Focus List
LSE Raised to Overweight at HSBC to Reflect Russell Acquisition
• LSE raised from neutral, PT increased 13% to 2100p on “convincing potential” for share price to rise, HSBC says in note.
• Russell acquisition has made LSE into best diversified exchange group by revenue
• Raises ests. to include Russell index business and Russell asset management unit
• Sees index revenue growth of 10% for next years, notes consensus expects even more
• Says not clear if Russell asset mangement business will be kept or sold