100% tõenäosus, et FED langetab intressid lähiaastatel 0-i peale.
Võtad intressifutuurides possi ka või?
Ei, milleks? Esiteks ei viitsi nii kaua oodata ja teiseks võib panuseid teha aktsiatele ja aktsiaindeksitele. Vaevalt aktsiatele meeldivad 0-intressid. Mida see ütleb süsteemi kohta?
"Lehman has hired law firm Weil Gotshal & Manges to prepare a potential bankruptcy filing, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing a person familiar with the matter."
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSN0927996520080913?pageNumber=4&virtualBrandChannel=10112
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSN0927996520080913?pageNumber=4&virtualBrandChannel=10112
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122134089502132567.html?mod=hpp_us_whats_news
http://www.cnbc.com/id/26691041
Paistab, et isegi kui LEH suudetakse päästa, siis esmaspäeval tuleb mõnus aadrilaskmine finantsis. Liiga üle noatera oleks see ja turg võtab seda kindla signaalina, et senised mark-to-market hindamised on liiga optimistlikud. Tõenäoliselt püüan esmaspäeva hommikul saada MER, AIG, WM jne shorti - ehk siis senised usual suspectid. Probleem on selles, et tõenäoliselt on raske head hinda saada ja küsimus on selles, et kui madalalt veel hea short on. Seega ilmselt oleks vaja järgmisi sihtmärke, aga selles osas mul veel kindlust ei ole, mida vaadata.. Wachovia oleks üks variant. FITB, NCC jne on ka ilmselt head variandid. Taaskord teeb ettevaatlikuks see, et tundub liiga ilmselge ja sellest saab olema (või juba on) crowded trade. Eks homme õhtul/esmaspäeva hommikul tuleb veel läbi mõelda hoolega, mis ja kuidas. Parim setup minu jaoks oleks ilmselt see, kui mingisugune lahendus ikkagi leitakse, siis on lootust eelturul mõistliku hinnaga shorte saada.
Täpselt jim-crowded trade voib olla prrobleemiks.Too easy to make money-smth is wrong
Vb kui juba võtta siis juba kaasavarana mingit div aktsiat,sest paljudel on tõenäoliselt ka div cut tulemas.
Vb kui juba võtta siis juba kaasavarana mingit div aktsiat,sest paljudel on tõenäoliselt ka div cut tulemas.
Mõte liigub ikkagi GS BAC MER MS UBS JPM peale. Kuidagi ei taha enam uskuda, et nende paberid ausad on.
Mis asja? GS ei julgeks küll väga panustada, sest need mehed just languse peale mängisidki.
Kui tõesti tehakse ettevalmistusi pankrotikaitse taotlemiseks, siis LEH juhatus usub, et equity on positiivne, muidu pole ju seda mõtet teha.
Jim, kas Citigroup (C) ei meeldi Sulle järgmise mänguna? Reedel jäi silma ühe Briefingu treideri mõttekäik, millele hiljem juhtis CNBC-s tähelepanu ka Cramer:
Cramer making the same point I was making on Citi today -Update : On CNBC, Cramer just noted that Citi (C 18.31 -0.30) should get ready b/c the Shorts are preparing to raid it (a la, LEH, MER and AIG). Notes Put positions in the name are giving away the planned attack.
Cramer making the same point I was making on Citi today -Update : On CNBC, Cramer just noted that Citi (C 18.31 -0.30) should get ready b/c the Shorts are preparing to raid it (a la, LEH, MER and AIG). Notes Put positions in the name are giving away the planned attack.
C puhul on natuke liiga palju erinevaid osasid ja juppe, keeruline hinnata. Kõige paremas seisus kindlasti ei ole, seetõttu võib sihtmärgiks osutuda küll. Aga jah, reedel tehti isegi sept 15 putte täitsa hoolega, nii et võimalik sihtmärk tõesti. Kusjuures 15 putid võivad päris head risk-rewardi pakkuda, aga vaja õige kuu omasid võtta.
tundub et aeg saab otsa.kahjumi jagamine ja müümine pole kerge töö.
kui see esilekutsutud päästeoperatsioon peaks lõppema fiaskoga siis on oodata vaba langemist. ja seda mitte LEH pärast vaid fakti pärast et enam ei suudeta kedagi päästa.
kui see esilekutsutud päästeoperatsioon peaks lõppema fiaskoga siis on oodata vaba langemist. ja seda mitte LEH pärast vaid fakti pärast et enam ei suudeta kedagi päästa.
``ISDA confirms a netting trading session will take place between 2 p.m. and 4 p.m. New York time for over-the-counter derivatives,'' the ISDA said. ``Trades are contingent on a bankruptcy filing at or before 11:59 p.m. New York time, Sunday, Sept. 14, 2008. If there is no filing, the trades cease to exist.''
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aeWvsWPyOd1c&refer=home
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aeWvsWPyOd1c&refer=home
4:11 p.m.[BAC] Bank of America and Merrill Lynch in merger talks - WSJ
Tundub, et oleme end-game'i lähedal - mille järgi mõned aktsiad hakkavad tohutult kallinema, teised seisavad nulli peal.
(LEH) Lehman Brothers investment unit gets bids from Bain, Clayton Dubilier; the bids value the unit at about $5 bln - Bloomberg.com
Bloomberg.com reports that Lehman Brothers received bids for its asset-management unit from private-equity firms including Bain Capital and Clayton Dubilier & Rice Inc., as the investment bank seeks offers for the entire firm. The bids value the unit, which includes the Neuberger Berman fund-management business, private-equity funds and a brokerage firm serving wealthy individuals, at about $5 bln, according to people familiar with the auction who asked not to be named because the process is private. The buyout companies are angling to own a business with assets of $273 bln headed by former Goldman Sachs Group Inc. banker George Walker. Lehman Chief Executive Officer Richard Fuld sought to sell the business to save the 158-year-old firm before investors forced him to weigh a fire sale of the entire co. Representatives for Lehman and the private-equity firms declined to comment.
Bloomberg.com reports that Lehman Brothers received bids for its asset-management unit from private-equity firms including Bain Capital and Clayton Dubilier & Rice Inc., as the investment bank seeks offers for the entire firm. The bids value the unit, which includes the Neuberger Berman fund-management business, private-equity funds and a brokerage firm serving wealthy individuals, at about $5 bln, according to people familiar with the auction who asked not to be named because the process is private. The buyout companies are angling to own a business with assets of $273 bln headed by former Goldman Sachs Group Inc. banker George Walker. Lehman Chief Executive Officer Richard Fuld sought to sell the business to save the 158-year-old firm before investors forced him to weigh a fire sale of the entire co. Representatives for Lehman and the private-equity firms declined to comment.
"American International Group plans to disclose a comprehensive restructuring by early Monday morning that is likely to include the disposal of major assets including its aircraft-leasing business and other holdings. Full story coming shortly. "
www.wsj.com
www.wsj.com
nytimes Bof ja Mer
The move suggests a desperate effort at triage on Wall Street, as Bank of America works to shore up the likely next victim of the credit crunch. A deal, valued at between $25 a share to $30 a share, could be announced as soon as Sunday night, these people said. Merrill shares closed at $17.05 on Friday.
The move suggests a desperate effort at triage on Wall Street, as Bank of America works to shore up the likely next victim of the credit crunch. A deal, valued at between $25 a share to $30 a share, could be announced as soon as Sunday night, these people said. Merrill shares closed at $17.05 on Friday.