Suur küsimus praegu, mis hetkel tõusevad Bernanke’i helicopterid ja hajutavad raha üle maailma. Või kas, nagu Jim Puplava ütles, kasutatakse pigem B52 bombers. Tundub selge, et tänased intressimäärad on piisavalt kõrged et kukkumist varaturgudel kindlustada, käib ka Eurotsooni kohta. Selge veel see, et intressid olid kaua liiga madalad - kuna varaturgude arengut eirati. Aga edaspidi pole siis midagi muud teha kui kutsuda Ben’i, küsimus ainult millal ja kuidas sealtpoolt reageeritakse. Hiinlaste ja araablaste dollarid kaovad väärtuse kiiresti, ja Wall Street varem või hiljem jälle rõõmustab. aga küsimus siis, millal…
Olen kuulnud, et sõjad on kõige paremad majanduse ergutajad.. Tööstus hakkab arenema ja suured rahad liikuma
siseminej6id
Seekord pigem B52-bombers dollaritega. Kustutaks kiiresti Ameerika välisvõla, leevendab Ameerika koduostjate olukorda. Hea küll dollar pärast seda reserv-valuuta enam pole. Aga kas see staatus pole sisuliselt niikuinii juba kadumas.
Seekord pigem B52-bombers dollaritega. Kustutaks kiiresti Ameerika välisvõla, leevendab Ameerika koduostjate olukorda. Hea küll dollar pärast seda reserv-valuuta enam pole. Aga kas see staatus pole sisuliselt niikuinii juba kadumas.
Meenub mõnda aega tagasi, mil Bush karjus kütusehindade kerkimise peale, et ärge täitke oma paake kütusega ja jääge rahulikuks. Täna on olukord palju tõsisem - inimesed jäävad oma kodudest ilma ning vaadates kui paljud firmad on praktiliselt väärtusetuks muutunud, siis see küsimus ei keerle ilmselt ainult sinu peas, stefan : - ) Vabandan risustamise ja pikkade tekstide pärast, aga lükkan siia alla ühe tänase WSJ artikli, mis sarnast teemat ka puudutab...
WASHINGTON -- U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, concerned that millions of homeowners aren't being helped quickly enough, is pressing the mortgage-service industry to help broad swaths of borrowers qualify for better loans instead of dealing with mortgage problems on a case-by-case basis.
In an interview, Mr. Paulson said the number of potential home-loan defaults "will be significantly bigger" in 2008 than in 2007. He said he is "aggressively encouraging" the mortgage-service industry -- which collects loan payments from borrowers -- to develop criteria that would enable large groups of borrowers who might default on their payments to qualify for loans with better terms.
"We're never going to be able to process the number of workouts and modifications that are going to be necessary doing it just sort of one-off," Mr. Paulson said. "I've talked to enough people now to know there's no way that's going to work."
The momentum for a new approach received a boost yesterday when four major mortgage-loan servicers, including Countrywide Financial Corp., and California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger agreed to endorse a plan for temporarily freezing interest rates to help borrowers in good standing from facing foreclosure when their loans reset to higher interest rates.
The Bush administration has been looking for ways to stem the fallout from rising defaults on mortgages to subprime borrowers, or those with poor credit, which have roiled financial markets and bled into the broader housing sector. Amid wrangling between Congress and the White House over how best to do that, Mr. Paulson said the administration's approach is "the right thing to be proposing" and will help to keep homeowners in their homes.
While he stopped short of endorsing a proposal by Sheila Bair, chairwoman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., to have mortgage companies freeze the interest rate on the two million mortgages due to reset to higher rates between now and the end of 2008, he said that's "one idea." Mr. Paulson said he supports finding some way to develop "standard criteria that's going to allow for modification and workouts."
Defaults and foreclosures are increasing as borrowers -- many of whom got loans that allowed them to make no down payment or to initially pay interest only -- begin having trouble making their mortgage payments as higher rates kick in. Many homeowners believed they could refinance, but that has become harder as housing prices slide and lenders tighten standards.
Mr. Paulson faulted Congress for failing to pass several bills that could potentially provide relief for borrowers, and took aim at a Republican senator who is holding up a piece of legislation that would allow the Federal Housing Administration to play a greater role in the cleanup. While the Bush administration and Democrats in Congress backed the bill, Oklahoma Republican Sen. Tom Coburn objected, saying it will result in additional risky loans for which taxpayers will be liable.
Mr. Paulson said he understands Mr. Coburn's concerns, but notes: "This is not business as usual. This is an extraordinary situation."
He also called the Senate's failure to pass legislation overhauling mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac "very frustrating," saying that the two government-sponsored entities need to be playing a bigger role in the housing market.
"If we ever need them it's during times like today, and they're most valuable when there is distress in the mortgage market," he said. "I'd like to see them playing an even bigger role."
Fannie and Freddie, however, have recently posted losses that could hamper their ability to buy mortgages, since they are required to keep a hefty capital cushion.
Mr. Paulson declined to say whether he would back efforts to lift those minimum capital requirements, saying such a decision was best left to the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, which regulates Fannie and Freddie. "It would be particularly inappropriate for me to get between the regulator and Fannie and Freddie given what's going on," he said.
Mr. Paulson wants Congress to temporarily allow Fannie and Freddie to purchase mortgages larger than their current limit of $417,000, a move some believe would improve the availability of the larger "jumbo" mortgages.
But the Bush administration doesn't want to expand their role unless such a move is accompanied by tighter oversight of the two entities. The House has passed a bill but similar legislation has gone nowhere in the Senate.
WASHINGTON -- U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, concerned that millions of homeowners aren't being helped quickly enough, is pressing the mortgage-service industry to help broad swaths of borrowers qualify for better loans instead of dealing with mortgage problems on a case-by-case basis.
In an interview, Mr. Paulson said the number of potential home-loan defaults "will be significantly bigger" in 2008 than in 2007. He said he is "aggressively encouraging" the mortgage-service industry -- which collects loan payments from borrowers -- to develop criteria that would enable large groups of borrowers who might default on their payments to qualify for loans with better terms.
"We're never going to be able to process the number of workouts and modifications that are going to be necessary doing it just sort of one-off," Mr. Paulson said. "I've talked to enough people now to know there's no way that's going to work."
The momentum for a new approach received a boost yesterday when four major mortgage-loan servicers, including Countrywide Financial Corp., and California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger agreed to endorse a plan for temporarily freezing interest rates to help borrowers in good standing from facing foreclosure when their loans reset to higher interest rates.
The Bush administration has been looking for ways to stem the fallout from rising defaults on mortgages to subprime borrowers, or those with poor credit, which have roiled financial markets and bled into the broader housing sector. Amid wrangling between Congress and the White House over how best to do that, Mr. Paulson said the administration's approach is "the right thing to be proposing" and will help to keep homeowners in their homes.
While he stopped short of endorsing a proposal by Sheila Bair, chairwoman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., to have mortgage companies freeze the interest rate on the two million mortgages due to reset to higher rates between now and the end of 2008, he said that's "one idea." Mr. Paulson said he supports finding some way to develop "standard criteria that's going to allow for modification and workouts."
Defaults and foreclosures are increasing as borrowers -- many of whom got loans that allowed them to make no down payment or to initially pay interest only -- begin having trouble making their mortgage payments as higher rates kick in. Many homeowners believed they could refinance, but that has become harder as housing prices slide and lenders tighten standards.
Mr. Paulson faulted Congress for failing to pass several bills that could potentially provide relief for borrowers, and took aim at a Republican senator who is holding up a piece of legislation that would allow the Federal Housing Administration to play a greater role in the cleanup. While the Bush administration and Democrats in Congress backed the bill, Oklahoma Republican Sen. Tom Coburn objected, saying it will result in additional risky loans for which taxpayers will be liable.
Mr. Paulson said he understands Mr. Coburn's concerns, but notes: "This is not business as usual. This is an extraordinary situation."
He also called the Senate's failure to pass legislation overhauling mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac "very frustrating," saying that the two government-sponsored entities need to be playing a bigger role in the housing market.
"If we ever need them it's during times like today, and they're most valuable when there is distress in the mortgage market," he said. "I'd like to see them playing an even bigger role."
Fannie and Freddie, however, have recently posted losses that could hamper their ability to buy mortgages, since they are required to keep a hefty capital cushion.
Mr. Paulson declined to say whether he would back efforts to lift those minimum capital requirements, saying such a decision was best left to the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, which regulates Fannie and Freddie. "It would be particularly inappropriate for me to get between the regulator and Fannie and Freddie given what's going on," he said.
Mr. Paulson wants Congress to temporarily allow Fannie and Freddie to purchase mortgages larger than their current limit of $417,000, a move some believe would improve the availability of the larger "jumbo" mortgages.
But the Bush administration doesn't want to expand their role unless such a move is accompanied by tighter oversight of the two entities. The House has passed a bill but similar legislation has gone nowhere in the Senate.
Fakk, mingi Tom Coburn, ise veel poliitik, tahab vältida maksumaksja raha raiskamist. On reetur, raibe.
ECB pikendas ja suurendas 23 aug tehtud kolmekuulise lisaemisiooni rahaturule. Tollal 40 mrd EUR, praegu 60 mrd EUR. Keskmine intress 4,61%, pakkumised 148 mrd. Rahaturuintressid on jälle jooksnud ECB juhtintressist ära.
Järgmisena aegub 12. detsembril ECB teist lisaemissiooni, mille maht oli septembri keskel 75 mrd EUR.
Tundub, et see mis juhtub on: Tugevad pangad laenavad (üha rohkem) ECB-le. Nõrgad pangad laenavad (üha rohkem) ECB-lt.
Järgmisena aegub 12. detsembril ECB teist lisaemissiooni, mille maht oli septembri keskel 75 mrd EUR.
Tundub, et see mis juhtub on: Tugevad pangad laenavad (üha rohkem) ECB-le. Nõrgad pangad laenavad (üha rohkem) ECB-lt.
Hea kommentaar Rick Santelli poolt CNBCs, investeerimispankade palvete intressilangetamise kohta:
The investment banks sees a recession coming, they did not see the sub-prime issues leading to the recession.
The investment banks sees a recession coming, they did not see the sub-prime issues leading to the recession.
niikaua kui Ben veel pole tulnud on ka George Bushist abi, vähemalt lühiajalise turu reaktsiooni põhjal :)
Uued meetmed avaldatud:
http://www.ecb.int/press/pr/date/2007/html/pr071212.en.html
http://www.ecb.int/press/pr/date/2007/html/pr071212.en.html
...aga EURIBORid täna ei reageerinud
selge siis, et pole likviidsuskriis, vaid krediidikriis.
Sub-prime-kriis on ilus nimi - aga tegelikult mis juhtub on vaid varahindade langus. Kõik antud laenud muutuvad riskantsemaks, ja koos sellega intressid kõrgemaks.
selge siis, et pole likviidsuskriis, vaid krediidikriis.
Sub-prime-kriis on ilus nimi - aga tegelikult mis juhtub on vaid varahindade langus. Kõik antud laenud muutuvad riskantsemaks, ja koos sellega intressid kõrgemaks.
USA-s on majandussurutis toimunud keskmiselt iga viie aasta tagant. Normaalne nähtus, ei mingit maailma lõppu.
Kuid nüüd millegipärast hirm väga suureks kasvanud. Soovitakse ükskõik, mis hinnaga seda vältida.
Miks? Sellepärast, et enam ei seisa ees tavaline majandussurutis vaid kõigi aegade suurim ja põhjalikum. Krediidi supertsükkel.
Kuid nüüd millegipärast hirm väga suureks kasvanud. Soovitakse ükskõik, mis hinnaga seda vältida.
Miks? Sellepärast, et enam ei seisa ees tavaline majandussurutis vaid kõigi aegade suurim ja põhjalikum. Krediidi supertsükkel.
Helicopter-Beni asemel tulevad helicopter'd Aasiast ja Lähis-Idast. Tänasest Economistist:
BEN BERNANKE once spoke of dropping money from helicopters, if necessary, to save an economy in distress. The chairman of the Federal Reserve probably did not envisage that choppers bearing the insignia of oil-rich Gulf states and cash-rich Asian countries would hover over Wall Street. Yet just such a squadron has flown to the rescue of capitalism's finest.
BEN BERNANKE once spoke of dropping money from helicopters, if necessary, to save an economy in distress. The chairman of the Federal Reserve probably did not envisage that choppers bearing the insignia of oil-rich Gulf states and cash-rich Asian countries would hover over Wall Street. Yet just such a squadron has flown to the rescue of capitalism's finest.
Tõendid näitavad, et pangad tegelevad süsteemist õli ära korjamisega mitte õli lisamisega.
"Ben Bernanke, meet Gary Crittenden. While you're easing credit, he is tightening it."
Regulatsioon ja deregulatsioon. Kummaga meil on tegemist? Kui on vaja majandust ergutada, siis peaks tegelema deregulatsiooniga (lubada eksootilist rahakasutust), kuid tegelikult käib praegu räme regulatsioonide karmistamine. Raha muutub iga kuuga vähem kättesaadavaks ja intressikärped ei saavuta seetõttu mingit mõju. Helicopter-Ben on müüt, nad hoopis keelavad kõik skeemid, mis viimastel aastatel rahamassi eksponentsiaalse kasvu taga olid. Kõik läheb plaani järgi (Jaapan, Suur Depressioon).
Usun, et lõpuks tulevad 0-intressid. Kuid see ei muuda midagi.
"Ben Bernanke, meet Gary Crittenden. While you're easing credit, he is tightening it."
Regulatsioon ja deregulatsioon. Kummaga meil on tegemist? Kui on vaja majandust ergutada, siis peaks tegelema deregulatsiooniga (lubada eksootilist rahakasutust), kuid tegelikult käib praegu räme regulatsioonide karmistamine. Raha muutub iga kuuga vähem kättesaadavaks ja intressikärped ei saavuta seetõttu mingit mõju. Helicopter-Ben on müüt, nad hoopis keelavad kõik skeemid, mis viimastel aastatel rahamassi eksponentsiaalse kasvu taga olid. Kõik läheb plaani järgi (Jaapan, Suur Depressioon).
Usun, et lõpuks tulevad 0-intressid. Kuid see ei muuda midagi.
Kogu see raha mis maailmas eksponentsiaalselt kasvas, on laenatud. Laenud tuleb kunagi tagasi maksta, aga eksponentsiaalse kasvu tagajäreks (ehk mulli tagajärjeks) on see, et tagasi peavad maksma kõik ja korraga. Normaalne oleks, kui osad laenavad, samal ajal kui teised maksavad tagasi, oleks rahasüsteem tasakaalus. Viimatised ülimadalad intressimäärad tegid imet, ime tulemus on nüüd näha.
vanadel juutidel oli komme, et iga seitsme aasta tagant tühistati kõik võlad, sest kõik olid kõigile võlgu ja asi oli lootusetult keeruline. äkki oleks aeg vana traditsioon jälle ausse tõsta...:)
ja juutidel on kombeks olnud pangandusega tegeleda ja neid ka omada, kas nüüd lastakse nende poolt hallatav ala araabia naftal odavalt üles osta?
Räägiks parem sellest, millal ja millega Ben tuleb! Kas peame veel üle nädala ootama?
Ben võib tulla vikatiga ja niita turud jalust, öeldes, et tema on endiselt seisukohal, mille kohaselt tema ei usu USA majanduskasvu lakkamist. Selline suhtumine võib päästa US$ halvimast, aga kuidas USA majandusega sel juhul läheb, selle kohta on vana tuntud lühend: kst.
Nüüd äkki võimalik, et juba täna intresse alandatakse 75 bp vms.
Fed'ile tegelikult ideaaljuht oleks see, et turg suudaks ilma nende abita praegu mingigi pidamise leida, mis on lühiajalises plaanis enne fed'i koosolekut minu arvates üsna tõenäoline. Enne 30-ndat tuleb veel eeldatavasti ca 28.-ndal selgem ülevaade maksukärbetest ja tänane järsk langus toob karud kasumeid võtma. Aga nagu ikka: KST.