investeerimiseks CSCO't saab osta siis kui majanduse naitajad paranevad, kui GDP ilma Ig'ta ka increases siis voib motlema hakata, ennem nagu pole motet ju peab ju kogu business cycle'i arvesse votma + olukord maailmas. CSCO ei saa kasvada ainult US arvelt vaid riikide arvelt kes ei ole ennem CSCO revenue'desse ennast kaasanud (vahemast mitte suurel maaral). For Day trading...well...do whatever u want! :)...it's "buy and sell" only for a split second anyway :)
USA SKP ju kasvab juba. Asi selles ongi, et ega aktsiahinnad seepärast veel ei tõuse. Mull läks ju äsja katki. Kui vaid minevikku aluseks võtta on langusfaasi lõppemine 100% kindel. Pikaajaliseks investeeringuks tuleks Ciscot hinnata nn. rahuaja mõõdupuude järgi, kui kitsikus läbi oleks. Siiski võib just üksnes telekomide pohmell kesta kümnendi. :)
to mio: GDP kasvab ainult Ig abil, mis ei ole mingi naitaja, selline on uldine okonoomikute arvamus siin. Ig kasvas ainult selleparast et firmad stocked up their inventories
Langusfaas on juba loppenud, langusfaas, kui mio motleb recessionit, on 2 neg. quarters in GDP. Tegelikku langusfaasi polegi olnud, vaga mild recession oli kui votta ainult GDP arvu arvesse. Asi pole ainult GDP kasvamises kui numbris, vaid rohkem mis naitajad kasvavad GDP enda sees. Number ise ei utle midagi, numbrit peab interpreteerima :)
Mineviku võrdlemisel saab kasutada ikkagi arvulisi suuruseid. Interpretatsioonide võrdlemine mineviku interpretatsioonidega ja sarnasuste otsimine on veel raskem. Olgu arvudest rääkimine lihtsustus. Milline on praegune interpretatsioon?
no mehed naised!
te siin targutate kas on recession voi mitte by definition..
selleks ei pea geenJus olema et taibata et miskit on mäda.
isegi gdp v6i siia sinna toppida - kui ikka inimesed ei osta ja firmadel khvasti laheb, inimsi lahti lastakse ja frimad pankrotistuvad - kas siis aitab et gdp oli nii ja niipalju?
use your brains, not your books!
te siin targutate kas on recession voi mitte by definition..
selleks ei pea geenJus olema et taibata et miskit on mäda.
isegi gdp v6i siia sinna toppida - kui ikka inimesed ei osta ja firmadel khvasti laheb, inimsi lahti lastakse ja frimad pankrotistuvad - kas siis aitab et gdp oli nii ja niipalju?
use your brains, not your books!
to rio: sa oled vaga naljakas inimene
Kas mina olen naljakas? Miks?
SEB Nordic Outlook May 2002 prognoosib USA investeeringute languseks aastal 2002 3,1% ja kasvuks aastal 2003 7.2%. See oleks tubli hüpe küll.
SEB Nordic Outlook May 2002 prognoosib USA investeeringute languseks aastal 2002 3,1% ja kasvuks aastal 2003 7.2%. See oleks tubli hüpe küll.
rio = mio või riq?
Multex saatis täna huvitava kirjutise. Finantsanalüütik ja kolumnist William L. Valentine leiab, et USA majandus on jagunenud kaheks: tarbimispooleks ja ettevõttesektoriks, millest viimane on kriisis. Leiab, et pikaajalised investorid ei peaks praegu turult väljuma.
http://dai.multexinvestor.com/article.asp?docid=9170&nd=0610
The economy's much improved. The market isn't. Why is that?
The answer is one part deception and one part cynicism. Market participants are overreacting to the recent series of scandals, deceived by a mirage of systemic corruption within the financial markets, and across the boardrooms of America. At the same time, people are confused about the fitness of the economy. They hear that things are well, but corporate earnings and anecdotal evidence seem to suggest otherwise.
Both put pressure on stocks, but the reconciliation between rising stocks and profits is inevitable. Patient long-term investors will be rewarded for not selling out the market.
Even though the market recovered in the week following Sept. 11, ever since, it's been trading in a sort of one-step-forward, one-step-back pattern. It doesn't feel like recovery, but it is. The chart below shows the S&P 500 over the last year. The blue horizontal bands represent the trading range, and you can see the market bottom in September.
The market's simply not doing any better because of a "crisis of confidence." Investors fear an institutional level of corruption evidenced by everything from Enron executives to auditing firms and on down to Wall Street analysts. This creates a drag on the market, but is way overblown and typical of the mentality at the end of a bear market.
And the confusing part of the economic picture results from conflicting evidence. Even though the economy is expanding, and went through the mildest recession on record (if you can call it a recession), it still feels to some like things are weak, and certainly there are many companies whose earnings don't reflect the pace of improvement.
Think of it as two economies. The first is the overall economy, two-thirds of which is driven by personal consumption, and it really never went into recession in my opinion. The second is the industrial economy, driven by capital expenditures, and includes technology products—and this half of the world is just barely coming out of a deep contraction.
The charts below show two very important indications of the overall recession, muted thanks to the strength in consumption.
GDP bottomed in the third quarter last year, and failed to meet one standard recessionary litmus test: two consecutive quarters in GDP decline.
And the unemployment rate, at 6 percent, is way below the levels of past recessions going back 30 years (previous recessions are shaded in pink).
And yet to look at manufacturing, production, and tech spending, you get a different picture, and one that is clearly recessionary. Eventually, that segment of the economy will come around as well—probably next year.
One stock that should do well in a recovering market is Oracle (ORCL). It's got an undeniably dominant brand name in application software, strong management, and positive earnings. It also has little debt, solid earnings, and an expected growth rate of 20 percent. Right now, it's unpopular, but it makes a reasonable buy. Their PEG of 0.95 is arrived at by comparing its forward P/E of 19 to its 20 percent growth rate. This is made all the more attractive by the fact that it is currently operating in a depressed earnings environment, which normally expands valuation. When the IT spending cycle gains traction, it's hard to see others that will be perceived to be more divine than Oracle.
Siin lõpus võiks Oracle asendada ka sõnaga Cisco.
Merrill apgreidis Cisco strong buy'ks
Cisco sparkles on Merrill upgrade
By Susan Lerner, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 4:26 PM ET July 10, 2002
NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- To woo an upgrade out of an analyst it often takes improving fundamentals or attractive valuation.
Cisco Systems comes through on both fronts, according to Merrill Lynch analyst Samuel Wilson, who upgraded the networking giant (CSCO: news, chart, profile) to "intermediate-term strong buy" from "intermediate-term buy."
The move spurred Cisco shares higher Wednesday as investors continue to look for any signs of improvement in the bleak trends that have surrounded the telecommunications industry. The stock, which rose to an intraday high of $13.99, lost some ground as the broader market's sell-off accelerated, closing at $13.51, up 37 cents, or 2.8 percent.
"Fundamentals at Cisco are improving, and we expect the company to show top and bottom line out-performance before year end," Wilson wrote in a research note. "Our macro leading indicators continue to point toward a recovery in communications equipment new orders during the second half of 2002, with revenues following shortly thereafter."
Wilson says book-to-bill for U.S. communications was greater than 1.0 for three out of the last four months and that industry contacts are confirming that Cisco's business is stable. "The next move is improvement," he said.
Based on his industry checks, Wilson said he sees "solid evidence" that Cisco will meet his expectations for its fourth quarter ending this month. Wilson is forecasting earnings from operations of 12 cents a share and revenue of $4.9 billion, in line with the consensus estimate of analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial/First Call.
The second part of Wilson's equation for the upgrade is Cisco's valuation, which he termed "exceptionally attractive" following the stock's 30 percent pullback since mid-May. This is particularly true, he said, when investors look 12 months out.
With general sentiment continuing to paint a dismal picture, he believes it's buying time.
"Sentiment is awful. In all our recent discussions with investors, we continue to hear that business is worse, the future is bleak, and that technology investing is over," Wilson said. "We believe that these sentiments are a contra-indicator and represent buying opportunities."
Still, even though Cisco now carries Merrill's highest rating for both the intermediate and long term, Wilson warned that there were "counterweights" to his bullish view, which could signal "a change in timing or a higher level of risk to our predictions."
First, he said, business fundamentals could take one more turn for the worse.
"While all our checks indicate that business is not deteriorating, we would not rule out the possibility of one final ugly dip in the market to wring out remaining excesses," he wrote, indicating that it could be caused by geopolitical, monetary or other outside influence. "Should the recovery in corporate profitability fail to materialize, the IT spending recovery will be delayed causing a push out of the growth we are forecasting for Cisco."
Still, he noted that such an event would not necessarily precipitate a significantly lower price for Cisco, so he believes a risk/reward tradeoff appears to favor investing now rather than waiting for a possible pullback.
"We believe the reward to risk ratio is on the side of investors with the stock in the $13 range. We expect that downside based on valuation is around $10 and upside $18," he said.
Also worrying Wilson is what has been the market's harshest plague of late -- accounting.
"We have reviewed Cisco's accounting in-depth. From everything we can find, Cisco's financial records indicate the company is conservative in its accounting. Further, the company has been forthright in its financial reporting," he said, but noted: "Given their history of using acquisitions to expand, investors may still be cautious on this investment despite the positive business trends."
CBS MarketWatch
By Susan Lerner, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 4:26 PM ET July 10, 2002
NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- To woo an upgrade out of an analyst it often takes improving fundamentals or attractive valuation.
Cisco Systems comes through on both fronts, according to Merrill Lynch analyst Samuel Wilson, who upgraded the networking giant (CSCO: news, chart, profile) to "intermediate-term strong buy" from "intermediate-term buy."
The move spurred Cisco shares higher Wednesday as investors continue to look for any signs of improvement in the bleak trends that have surrounded the telecommunications industry. The stock, which rose to an intraday high of $13.99, lost some ground as the broader market's sell-off accelerated, closing at $13.51, up 37 cents, or 2.8 percent.
"Fundamentals at Cisco are improving, and we expect the company to show top and bottom line out-performance before year end," Wilson wrote in a research note. "Our macro leading indicators continue to point toward a recovery in communications equipment new orders during the second half of 2002, with revenues following shortly thereafter."
Wilson says book-to-bill for U.S. communications was greater than 1.0 for three out of the last four months and that industry contacts are confirming that Cisco's business is stable. "The next move is improvement," he said.
Based on his industry checks, Wilson said he sees "solid evidence" that Cisco will meet his expectations for its fourth quarter ending this month. Wilson is forecasting earnings from operations of 12 cents a share and revenue of $4.9 billion, in line with the consensus estimate of analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial/First Call.
The second part of Wilson's equation for the upgrade is Cisco's valuation, which he termed "exceptionally attractive" following the stock's 30 percent pullback since mid-May. This is particularly true, he said, when investors look 12 months out.
With general sentiment continuing to paint a dismal picture, he believes it's buying time.
"Sentiment is awful. In all our recent discussions with investors, we continue to hear that business is worse, the future is bleak, and that technology investing is over," Wilson said. "We believe that these sentiments are a contra-indicator and represent buying opportunities."
Still, even though Cisco now carries Merrill's highest rating for both the intermediate and long term, Wilson warned that there were "counterweights" to his bullish view, which could signal "a change in timing or a higher level of risk to our predictions."
First, he said, business fundamentals could take one more turn for the worse.
"While all our checks indicate that business is not deteriorating, we would not rule out the possibility of one final ugly dip in the market to wring out remaining excesses," he wrote, indicating that it could be caused by geopolitical, monetary or other outside influence. "Should the recovery in corporate profitability fail to materialize, the IT spending recovery will be delayed causing a push out of the growth we are forecasting for Cisco."
Still, he noted that such an event would not necessarily precipitate a significantly lower price for Cisco, so he believes a risk/reward tradeoff appears to favor investing now rather than waiting for a possible pullback.
"We believe the reward to risk ratio is on the side of investors with the stock in the $13 range. We expect that downside based on valuation is around $10 and upside $18," he said.
Also worrying Wilson is what has been the market's harshest plague of late -- accounting.
"We have reviewed Cisco's accounting in-depth. From everything we can find, Cisco's financial records indicate the company is conservative in its accounting. Further, the company has been forthright in its financial reporting," he said, but noted: "Given their history of using acquisitions to expand, investors may still be cautious on this investment despite the positive business trends."
CBS MarketWatch
We have reviewed Cisco's accounting in-depth
bullshit
bullshit
Plaanin täna mõned Cisco putid osta. Palju ülevõtmisi ehk ka mingit raamatupidamisjama? Ja turu trend peaks lähiajal nii-ehk-naa alla olema.
Teremere,
Kas sa saaksid saata mone vihje Eesti rahvale "televiisorite" kohta (vt ylal)? Tagaks ju hirmsasti rikkust ymber jagada:-))) Ette tanades!
Muidu olen 100% nous sinu hinnanguga CSCO kohta. Tanane turuolukord ei toeta enam CSCO monopoli, ja tulevased ylikasumid jaavad nagemata.
Kas sa saaksid saata mone vihje Eesti rahvale "televiisorite" kohta (vt ylal)? Tagaks ju hirmsasti rikkust ymber jagada:-))) Ette tanades!
Muidu olen 100% nous sinu hinnanguga CSCO kohta. Tanane turuolukord ei toeta enam CSCO monopoli, ja tulevased ylikasumid jaavad nagemata.
Ost on tehtud (tiba alla 14), aga millal muua CSCO-t? Nuud, kui on "strong buy" soovitus ja Merrilli hinnasiht 18. Tundub, et tehnoloogia pohi on kaes? Igaljuhul olen bull, kuigi ilmselt uks vahestest? Palju raha on turule tulemas...:)
LOL @ spunk
sattusin ühes jututoa rääkima kanada spetsialistiga, kes soovitas naljatamisi laenu võtta ja kogu CSCO ära osta kui hind on 8 $ :)
ma küll sellel ostul pointi ei näeks. kust see csco ikkagi oma raha teenima (midagi loomulikult teenib) hakkab? need praegused võimalused loeksin ma nigelaks