Euronavi kõnest tuli huvitav punkt välja, et 2030 emissiooni vähenemine peab olema 40% 2008 aasta põhjal.
Lisaks äge vaadata, kui ökoks laevad juba läinud. 15 aastat tagasi oli nendel 8 laeva, nüüd 75.
So, when you look at 2030, you're not looking at individual ships. You're looking at fleet. And so, your fleet needs to have, on average, a decrease of emissions of 40% compared to 2008. Now, if you compare 2008 and what we bought already for some period of time, because all the Eco ships were already a big progress in terms of emissions, we are already at probably 30% to 35%. When I started at Euronav, a VLCC would easily consume 80 to 90 tonnes a day. And today, our most economical VLCCs would consume 52 tonnes, 53 tonnes a day. So, you can clearly see that there is progress.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4403476-euronav-n-v-eurn-ceo-hugo-de-stoop-on-q4-2020-results-earnings-call-transcript?utm_source=conferencecalltranscripts.org&utm_medium=referral
Ma ei ole u. 5 viimast aastat konteinervedude tariifidega kokku puutunud, aga hakkas huvitama praeguste kallite importtariifide teema. Kui on mõni targem ja kogenum, ehk oskab vastata.
Kui mul mälusopist õigesti meenub, siis u. 5 või rohkem aastat tagasi oli ekspordi ja impordi tariifide summa (Tallinn-Hiina + Hiina-Tallinn) väga jämedalt suurusjärgus USD 5000-6000 / 40’ konteineri kohta. Praegu räägitakse ajakirjanduses impordi tariifidest üle USD 7000 / 40’ konteineri kohta kuna Hiinas ei ole tühje konteinereid. Tekib küsimus, et miks tühje konteinereid Euroopast Hiinasse ei positsioneerita? Kas mu mälu petab? Või on viimastel aastatel üldised hinnatõusud toimunud? Või leitakse sellest olukorrast lihtsa põhjendusega võimalus tariife rohkem tõsta kui vaja oleks?
Kui mul mälusopist õigesti meenub, siis u. 5 või rohkem aastat tagasi oli ekspordi ja impordi tariifide summa (Tallinn-Hiina + Hiina-Tallinn) väga jämedalt suurusjärgus USD 5000-6000 / 40’ konteineri kohta. Praegu räägitakse ajakirjanduses impordi tariifidest üle USD 7000 / 40’ konteineri kohta kuna Hiinas ei ole tühje konteinereid. Tekib küsimus, et miks tühje konteinereid Euroopast Hiinasse ei positsioneerita? Kas mu mälu petab? Või on viimastel aastatel üldised hinnatõusud toimunud? Või leitakse sellest olukorrast lihtsa põhjendusega võimalus tariife rohkem tõsta kui vaja oleks?
Kuskil lehes kirjutas, et Euroopast pole nõudlust saamiseks ja seega tühjasid konteinereid ka ei veeta tagasi Hiinasse. Kuigi äkki juba tasuks :)
Nüüd kui kõik teavad, et kätte on jõudnud merekonteinerite räme põud ja kondi transp hinnad laes, peaks vbl kaubalaevanduse poole vaatma? Hilja osta? Kondid pigem laevafirmade omad.
Top ten by TEU capacity:
P. Moller–Maersk – 4.1m TEU. (CPH: MAERSK-B)
Mediterranean Shipping Company – 3.8m TEU.
COSCO Shipping Lines – 3.1m TEU. (SHA: 601919)
CMA CGM Group – 2.7m TEU.
Hapag-Lloyd – 1.7m TEU. (ETR: HLAG)
Ocean Network Express – 1.5m TEU.
Evergreen Line – 1.2m TEU. (TPE: 2603)
Orient Overseas Container Line – 733,580 TEU.
HMM – 728,416 TEU (KRX: 011200)
Yang Ming – 616,000 TEU (TPE: 2609)
Top ten by TEU capacity:
P. Moller–Maersk – 4.1m TEU. (CPH: MAERSK-B)
Mediterranean Shipping Company – 3.8m TEU.
COSCO Shipping Lines – 3.1m TEU. (SHA: 601919)
CMA CGM Group – 2.7m TEU.
Hapag-Lloyd – 1.7m TEU. (ETR: HLAG)
Ocean Network Express – 1.5m TEU.
Evergreen Line – 1.2m TEU. (TPE: 2603)
Orient Overseas Container Line – 733,580 TEU.
HMM – 728,416 TEU (KRX: 011200)
Yang Ming – 616,000 TEU (TPE: 2609)
Laevanduse ajakiri ütles, et jamad kestavad suve lõpuni konteinerites.
Fundamentaal on surnud, aktsiad püsivad õhu peal. (tahaks langusi näha aktsia hindades).
Another quiet week saw VLCC average earnings fall 25% to $5k/d. (Kui oleks üle 25K, siis ei saada vähemalt lossi) Rates ex-MEG particularly suffered, with MEG-China now quoted at a TCE $559/d. As expected, Suezmax rates fell back the past week as ballasters repositioned themselves to exploit the improved rates ex-WAfr. Aframax rates -17% w/w to $3k/d. Overall, sentiment in the tanker market is bleak, with few signs of improvement on the horizon.
Another quiet week saw VLCC average earnings fall 25% to $5k/d. (Kui oleks üle 25K, siis ei saada vähemalt lossi) Rates ex-MEG particularly suffered, with MEG-China now quoted at a TCE $559/d. As expected, Suezmax rates fell back the past week as ballasters repositioned themselves to exploit the improved rates ex-WAfr. Aframax rates -17% w/w to $3k/d. Overall, sentiment in the tanker market is bleak, with few signs of improvement on the horizon.
DHT Holdings, Inc. Fourth Quarter 2020 Results
Hoiab suhteliselt hästi, keskmised tasud kõrgemad, kna kevadel 2020 lukustas palju pikema ajalisi lepinguid. Q2 läheb 7 laeva vabaks, et oluliselt peaks kukkumine tulema , lisaks nagu EURN ütles, siis kõva hoolduse programm on tulemas, kuna tasud madalad. Arusaadavalt dividendid kukuvad, meenub 2016 dividendi lõks, kui Yahoo P/E ja dividendi tootlust vaadata.
Adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter of 2020 was $51.1 million. Net income of $7.6 million equates to $0.04
per basic share. Adjusted for a non-cash change in fair value related to interest rate derivatives of $2.4 million
and a non-cash impairment charge of $7.6 million, net income would be $12.9 million, equivalent to $0.08 per
basic share.
• For the fourth quarter of 2020, the Company declared a cash dividend of $0.05 pershare of outstanding common
stock, payable on February 25, 2021 to shareholders of record as of February 18, 2021.
DHT currently has 16 of its vessels on time charters, where four vessels have profit sharing structures on top of
base rates, whilst the other 12 have fixed rates. The average of the fixed elements in these 16 time charters, i.e.
of the four base rates and the 12 fixed rates, is $41,965 per day. Of the 16 vessels on time charters, seven are
estimated to redeliver during first quarter 2021
OUTLOOK:
• Thus far in the first quarter of 2021, 77% of the available VLCC days have been booked at an average rate of
$34,700 per day on a discharge to discharge basis (not including any potential profit splits on four time charters).
• The Company will continue to take advantage of the weak freight market to bring forward drydockings and
planned installations of scrubbers and ballast water treatment systems and expect scheduled offhire to be in the
range between 200 and 230 days during the first quarter of 2021.
Hoiab suhteliselt hästi, keskmised tasud kõrgemad, kna kevadel 2020 lukustas palju pikema ajalisi lepinguid. Q2 läheb 7 laeva vabaks, et oluliselt peaks kukkumine tulema , lisaks nagu EURN ütles, siis kõva hoolduse programm on tulemas, kuna tasud madalad. Arusaadavalt dividendid kukuvad, meenub 2016 dividendi lõks, kui Yahoo P/E ja dividendi tootlust vaadata.
Adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter of 2020 was $51.1 million. Net income of $7.6 million equates to $0.04
per basic share. Adjusted for a non-cash change in fair value related to interest rate derivatives of $2.4 million
and a non-cash impairment charge of $7.6 million, net income would be $12.9 million, equivalent to $0.08 per
basic share.
• For the fourth quarter of 2020, the Company declared a cash dividend of $0.05 pershare of outstanding common
stock, payable on February 25, 2021 to shareholders of record as of February 18, 2021.
DHT currently has 16 of its vessels on time charters, where four vessels have profit sharing structures on top of
base rates, whilst the other 12 have fixed rates. The average of the fixed elements in these 16 time charters, i.e.
of the four base rates and the 12 fixed rates, is $41,965 per day. Of the 16 vessels on time charters, seven are
estimated to redeliver during first quarter 2021
OUTLOOK:
• Thus far in the first quarter of 2021, 77% of the available VLCC days have been booked at an average rate of
$34,700 per day on a discharge to discharge basis (not including any potential profit splits on four time charters).
• The Company will continue to take advantage of the weak freight market to bring forward drydockings and
planned installations of scrubbers and ballast water treatment systems and expect scheduled offhire to be in the
range between 200 and 230 days during the first quarter of 2021.
DHT pre -7% lõpuks hakkavad asjad reageerima, nagu oodatud.
Ei oma kumbagi poolt, kui oleks, siis lühike kuni augustini või kui kõik hullu hooldust teevad, äkki saabub tasakaal ka varem.
Ei oma kumbagi poolt, kui oleks, siis lühike kuni augustini või kui kõik hullu hooldust teevad, äkki saabub tasakaal ka varem.
DHT-sse hüppaks hea meelega kui makropilt vähegi normaalne oleks (P/B alla 1, P/S ~1,3, keskmisest uuemad laevad, võlad viimase aastaga kõvasti alla saadud, väga hästi suudeti 20Q4-21Q1 madalad spot hinnad ära neutraliseerida suuremahuliste time charterite bookimisega kui hinnad veel kõrged olid jnejne).
Aga sektoris toimuvast ei saa mitte aru, enamik eksperte on veendunud, et kütuste nõudluse taastumisega läheb paar aastat aega, lisaks minnakse jõuliselt üle elektritranspordile, mis sealt edasi peaks juba endast tunda andma. Eeldaks, et vanad laevad amorditakse ära, uusi tellitakse veidi vähem ja sellega hoitakse hinnad balansis. Päris ära nafta nõudlus niikuinii ei kao. Aga ei, pidevalt viskab uudiseid kuidas keegi on jälle paar uue VLCC tellimust sisse andnud, samas kui vanasid VLCC-sid sisuliselt ei ole scrapitud, 20+ a vanad laevad leiavad endiselt ostjaid üle scrap hinna, ehk VLCC-de ülepakkumine ainult suureneb. Väga optimistlikute tegelastega on laevaomanike näol ikka tegemist!
Aga sektoris toimuvast ei saa mitte aru, enamik eksperte on veendunud, et kütuste nõudluse taastumisega läheb paar aastat aega, lisaks minnakse jõuliselt üle elektritranspordile, mis sealt edasi peaks juba endast tunda andma. Eeldaks, et vanad laevad amorditakse ära, uusi tellitakse veidi vähem ja sellega hoitakse hinnad balansis. Päris ära nafta nõudlus niikuinii ei kao. Aga ei, pidevalt viskab uudiseid kuidas keegi on jälle paar uue VLCC tellimust sisse andnud, samas kui vanasid VLCC-sid sisuliselt ei ole scrapitud, 20+ a vanad laevad leiavad endiselt ostjaid üle scrap hinna, ehk VLCC-de ülepakkumine ainult suureneb. Väga optimistlikute tegelastega on laevaomanike näol ikka tegemist!
Nii ongi, seda vahtu ikka aetakse ja kõik kopivad seal sektoris üksteise juttu.
Aga mulle tundub ka, et selline korralik pool aastat valusat pressi vähemalt ja kui nähe, et asjad hakkavad reaalselt vanarauda minema, oleks mõte. Kindel valik oleks EURN või DHT juhatuse poolest. 2020 lükati igas sektoris palju hooldusi edasi, kuna tasud olid ala 100-200K. Kätt tasub pulsil hoida, amoniaak siiski 3x kallim kui nafta, LNG kallis, ega kogu elu saa ainult tuule ja päikese energial olla. Kui kõik alternatiivi panustavad, siis saab toeks gaas ja see varsti plahvatab. OPEC kärbe hetkel 7M ehk tarbimine seal 93M juures hetkel. Turu puhastamiseks rauast, oleks vaja, et NAT ja TNK sugused hooga oma romusid rauda lükkaks ja siis sektoril lootust.
Aga mulle tundub ka, et selline korralik pool aastat valusat pressi vähemalt ja kui nähe, et asjad hakkavad reaalselt vanarauda minema, oleks mõte. Kindel valik oleks EURN või DHT juhatuse poolest. 2020 lükati igas sektoris palju hooldusi edasi, kuna tasud olid ala 100-200K. Kätt tasub pulsil hoida, amoniaak siiski 3x kallim kui nafta, LNG kallis, ega kogu elu saa ainult tuule ja päikese energial olla. Kui kõik alternatiivi panustavad, siis saab toeks gaas ja see varsti plahvatab. OPEC kärbe hetkel 7M ehk tarbimine seal 93M juures hetkel. Turu puhastamiseks rauast, oleks vaja, et NAT ja TNK sugused hooga oma romusid rauda lükkaks ja siis sektoril lootust.
Cleveas
DHT 4Q came in below expectations mainly due to an accelerated docking schedule and COVID-19 related costs. We believe mid-2021E could mark the cyclical trough and advise investors to use any potential weakness to build oil tanker positions. We reiterate our SELL rating and our trough-based target price of $4.7.
DHT 4Q came in below expectations mainly due to an accelerated docking schedule and COVID-19 related costs. We believe mid-2021E could mark the cyclical trough and advise investors to use any potential weakness to build oil tanker positions. We reiterate our SELL rating and our trough-based target price of $4.7.
https://www.sflcorp.com/sfl-seadrill-update-and-reduction-in-ownership-interest-in-four-container-leases/
https://www.sflcorp.com/sfl-update-on-seadrill-restructuring-2/
SFL Corporation Ltd. (“SFL” or the “Company”) (NYSE: SFL) plans to release its preliminary financial results for the fourth quarter of 2020 on Wednesday, February 17, 2021.
SFL plans to host a conference call and webcast for all stakeholders and interested parties on Wednesday, February 17, 2021 at 10:00 AM (EST) / 4:00 PM (CET). Relevant material will be available from the Investor Relations section of the Company’s website at www.sflcorp.com on the same day.
https://www.sflcorp.com/sfl-update-on-seadrill-restructuring-2/
SFL Corporation Ltd. (“SFL” or the “Company”) (NYSE: SFL) plans to release its preliminary financial results for the fourth quarter of 2020 on Wednesday, February 17, 2021.
SFL plans to host a conference call and webcast for all stakeholders and interested parties on Wednesday, February 17, 2021 at 10:00 AM (EST) / 4:00 PM (CET). Relevant material will be available from the Investor Relations section of the Company’s website at www.sflcorp.com on the same day.
Cleaves analüütikud tegid järsu pöörde 180 kraadi, mina neid 100% tõsisena ei võta, kuna alles hiljuti kirjutasid TNK kohta, et ootasid eelmise aasta alguses dividendi ja olid pettunud, et seda ei makstud. CEO oli iga tulemuste kõne aasta läbi toonitanud, ei dividendile, makstakse võlga ja siis analüütik pani sell, et pettunud :)
Siit ka see, mis TNK arvatavasti mingi päev põrkas ju tõmmati kõht ennem analüüsi tegemist täis,
Investments: As we have consistently highlighted for almost a year, we expected earnings, asset and share prices to trough in mid-2021E. While we still see earnings lackluster until 4Q21E, we think asset and share prices have bottomed out due to an increasing investor interest in the segment. We have long advised investors to use 1H21 to build positions, and believe the time is right to move away from trough pricing and back to our usual weighted valuation matrix of NAV and earnings multiples. Please note that we use the same valuation method for all our covered companies (adj. for liquidity, governance, etc) to enable investors to allocate capital efficiently. Thus, we upgrade the segment to BUY (from SELL) a few months earlier than expected, and raise our target prices by 99% on average. Our top picks are: 1] Teekay Tankers (priced like there is no tomorrow despite a strong balance sheet), 2] Okeanis (strong charter backlog & very cheap) and 3] Hunter (modern fleet at a massive discount)
Siit ka see, mis TNK arvatavasti mingi päev põrkas ju tõmmati kõht ennem analüüsi tegemist täis,
Investments: As we have consistently highlighted for almost a year, we expected earnings, asset and share prices to trough in mid-2021E. While we still see earnings lackluster until 4Q21E, we think asset and share prices have bottomed out due to an increasing investor interest in the segment. We have long advised investors to use 1H21 to build positions, and believe the time is right to move away from trough pricing and back to our usual weighted valuation matrix of NAV and earnings multiples. Please note that we use the same valuation method for all our covered companies (adj. for liquidity, governance, etc) to enable investors to allocate capital efficiently. Thus, we upgrade the segment to BUY (from SELL) a few months earlier than expected, and raise our target prices by 99% on average. Our top picks are: 1] Teekay Tankers (priced like there is no tomorrow despite a strong balance sheet), 2] Okeanis (strong charter backlog & very cheap) and 3] Hunter (modern fleet at a massive discount)
TNK pump töötab, eelmine päev +7% ja täna analüütiku raport 6,4% Pre. üleval,
Kus nad kõik eksivad- kui kõik nii positiivselt meelestatud, siis vanarauda müük jääb tulemata ja see agoonia kestab lõpuks kauem. Kuu lõpus tulemused, saab näha, palju ennem ülesse pressitakse.
Kus nad kõik eksivad- kui kõik nii positiivselt meelestatud, siis vanarauda müük jääb tulemata ja see agoonia kestab lõpuks kauem. Kuu lõpus tulemused, saab näha, palju ennem ülesse pressitakse.
Kuhu kakuke peidetud ka siia, tavaliselt siin optsioonid surnud
Fronline ldt kõne ka loetud (FRO) jutt nagu kõigil, laevad üle 20 aasta peaks minema vana rauda plaaa plaa ja see jutt vist 6 kuud jutti olnud, aga analüütik Jon Chappell suskas hästi, et kus need raportites laevad on, tuli vastuseks, et tõesti, ei tea. Next tuleb NAT oma kõnega, kellel ühed vanemad laevad ja saab lugeda kiidulaulu, kui väärtuslikud ja sama head kui uued laevad. Kõik ootavad ka meeletut nõudluse taastumist. FRO mainis ka, et 2020 oli tulu poolest rekond aasta alates 2008 aastast. 2 kvartalit pole nad dividendi maksnud ja pakun, et kuni H2 ka ei maksa 99,5% tõenäosusega. Keskmine tasumäär peab olema üle 18k, et raha teenid.
TNK tulemused
Q4-20 adjusted net loss(1) of $(40.7)M, or $(1.21) per share,compared to adjusted net income of
$3.1M, or $0.09 per share, in Q3-20
2020 adjusted net income(1) of $153.1M, or $4.54 per share, compared to $64.3M, or $1.91 per share, in 2019
Reduced net debt(2) by $419M, or 45%, in 2020 to $510 million and net debt to total cap of 32% as at December 31, 2020
Liquidity of $373 million as at December 31, 2020 Reduced TNK’s cost of capital by repurchasing 2 vessels on saleleasebacks in October 2020 and declaring purchase options on 2 additional vessels on saleleasebacks for $56.7 million for redelivery in May 2021
Weak spot market offset by 20% of Q4-20 days on fixed-rate employment at $35,700 per day(3)
Entered into an agreement to sell two unencumbered 2008-built Aframax tankers for $32 million
Chartered in one eco-Aframax newbuilding on a 7-year firm period at $18,700 per day for delivery in late-2022
Eks enne OPEC lisa mahte sektor kiratseb.
Spot rates impacted by the following in Q4-20:
• 2nd wave of COVID-19 and slowdown in oil demand growth
• OPEC+ supply constraint
• Return of ships from floating storage
Nägemus
Near-term outlook remains uncertain due to:
• Continued impact of COVID-19
• Saudi Arabia supply cuts of 1.0 mb/d in February / March
• Destocking of oil inventories and further unwinding of floating storage
• Higher bunker prices
Q4-20 adjusted net loss(1) of $(40.7)M, or $(1.21) per share,compared to adjusted net income of
$3.1M, or $0.09 per share, in Q3-20
2020 adjusted net income(1) of $153.1M, or $4.54 per share, compared to $64.3M, or $1.91 per share, in 2019
Reduced net debt(2) by $419M, or 45%, in 2020 to $510 million and net debt to total cap of 32% as at December 31, 2020
Liquidity of $373 million as at December 31, 2020 Reduced TNK’s cost of capital by repurchasing 2 vessels on saleleasebacks in October 2020 and declaring purchase options on 2 additional vessels on saleleasebacks for $56.7 million for redelivery in May 2021
Weak spot market offset by 20% of Q4-20 days on fixed-rate employment at $35,700 per day(3)
Entered into an agreement to sell two unencumbered 2008-built Aframax tankers for $32 million
Chartered in one eco-Aframax newbuilding on a 7-year firm period at $18,700 per day for delivery in late-2022
Eks enne OPEC lisa mahte sektor kiratseb.
Spot rates impacted by the following in Q4-20:
• 2nd wave of COVID-19 and slowdown in oil demand growth
• OPEC+ supply constraint
• Return of ships from floating storage
Nägemus
Near-term outlook remains uncertain due to:
• Continued impact of COVID-19
• Saudi Arabia supply cuts of 1.0 mb/d in February / March
• Destocking of oil inventories and further unwinding of floating storage
• Higher bunker prices
Combined spot and fixed rate time charters for Q1-21:
• 75% of Suezmax days fixed at an average rate of $18,900 per day
• 73% of Aframax days fixed at an average rate of $11,400 per day
• 69% of LR2 days fixed at an average rate of $13,200 per day
• 75% of Suezmax days fixed at an average rate of $18,900 per day
• 73% of Aframax days fixed at an average rate of $11,400 per day
• 69% of LR2 days fixed at an average rate of $13,200 per day
Jupp kõnest kah Q$A voorust
Ken Hoexter
And just real quick for me to wrap-up, what's -- can you remind us of the new breakeven point on the fleet given some of the shifts and the lower debt costs?
Stewart Andrade
Our free cash flow breakeven for 2021 will be about $15,000 per day on average between Aframax and Suezmax.
Jon Chappell
Küsis päris peenelt, mis te oma vanarauaga teete ja vastus oli, et hoiavad. Küsimise kunst.
It seems like just given the current market conditions there's still a little bit of an elevated asset price environment especially with 15 to 20-year-old assets trading well above scrap value. You have by my count 10 that were built between 2003 and 2005
Ken Hoexter
And just real quick for me to wrap-up, what's -- can you remind us of the new breakeven point on the fleet given some of the shifts and the lower debt costs?
Stewart Andrade
Our free cash flow breakeven for 2021 will be about $15,000 per day on average between Aframax and Suezmax.
Jon Chappell
Küsis päris peenelt, mis te oma vanarauaga teete ja vastus oli, et hoiavad. Küsimise kunst.
It seems like just given the current market conditions there's still a little bit of an elevated asset price environment especially with 15 to 20-year-old assets trading well above scrap value. You have by my count 10 that were built between 2003 and 2005
Soomes valmistatud kruiisilaevade üks laenude tagaja on ka Soome riik. Eelmise aasta seisuga on tagatud 4,4miljardi eest laenusid ja tulevasi projekte tagatakse 7miljardi eest. Ehk neil on päris hea põhjus kaasa eladamiseks, et need firmad siin kriisis pankrotti ei läheks.
https://www.mtvuutiset.fi/artikkeli/jos-korona-kaataa-ulkomaiset-risteilyjatit-suomalaisten-veronmaksajien-niskaan-uhkaa-rojahtaa-rokaletappiot/8084466#gs.vicpaz
https://www.mtvuutiset.fi/artikkeli/jos-korona-kaataa-ulkomaiset-risteilyjatit-suomalaisten-veronmaksajien-niskaan-uhkaa-rojahtaa-rokaletappiot/8084466#gs.vicpaz