Tuli ka uus ajakiri, kus täpselt minu mõte kirjas- tees
Closing on a positive tone, data from China is showing that new coronavirus cases in the country are starting to slow down, with some experts expecting a further decline in the spread growth of the virus taking place by end of March. This means that during the second quarter of the year, we may see a robust correction in the freight market, as importers in China will require to cover the “lost” period of production, leading to a significant temporary ramp up in demand for crude oil and thus for oil tankers.
Väike ülevaade hetkel tehastest toimuvast
Coming from one of its busiest periods historically, with a list of scrubber and BWMS retrofits on a waiting list, the ship repair sector is witnessing a huge shock from the spread of the COVID 19 in China. Almost all activities
have frozen just a few days after the initial announcement from the Chinese government that the CNY will be postponed till February 10th. From that date till now there is a relative improvement on the work progress inside the
shipyards but the main problems remain the same and the performance far behind the expected one.
The main challenges that Owners are experiencing in Chinese shipyards nowadays are delays for all kind of local products and spare parts, either from inland or overseas, which seriously affects delivery times. Repair personnel such as Owner’s representatives, service engineers and officers (i.e.commissioning engineers, specialists, flag and classification societies surveyors) either local or from overseas, are having a huge difficulty moving from their base to the vessel and vice versa. In addition to the above, shipyards are not working in full capacity yet, since workers’ “repatriation” after CNY is very time consuming given the two weeks quarantine time needed prior
getting back to work. The positive speculation although, is that full harmonization will take place by mid of March. In addition, all statistics from last week show that the situation in China is now under control, with the new
cases affected by the virus to be much reduced compared to the past weeks.
Coming from one of its busiest periods historically, with a list of scrubber and BWMS retrofits on a waiting list, the ship repair sector is witnessing a huge shock from the spread of the COVID 19 in China. Almost all activities
have frozen just a few days after the initial announcement from the Chinese government that the CNY will be postponed till February 10th. From that date till now there is a relative improvement on the work progress inside the
shipyards but the main problems remain the same and the performance far behind the expected one.
The main challenges that Owners are experiencing in Chinese shipyards nowadays are delays for all kind of local products and spare parts, either from inland or overseas, which seriously affects delivery times. Repair personnel such as Owner’s representatives, service engineers and officers (i.e.commissioning engineers, specialists, flag and classification societies surveyors) either local or from overseas, are having a huge difficulty moving from their base to the vessel and vice versa. In addition to the above, shipyards are not working in full capacity yet, since workers’ “repatriation” after CNY is very time consuming given the two weeks quarantine time needed prior
getting back to work. The positive speculation although, is that full harmonization will take place by mid of March. In addition, all statistics from last week show that the situation in China is now under control, with the new
cases affected by the virus to be much reduced compared to the past weeks.
Väga huvitav lugemine oli, link jäi lisamata https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Intermodal-Report-Week-8-2020.pdf
Dislaimer, ostan igapäev jupikeste kaupa kahte vedajat.
Dislaimer, ostan igapäev jupikeste kaupa kahte vedajat.
Nõudlus muutub tugevamaks järjest.
DHT Lotus (2011 - Modern Scrubber) On Subs WAfr/China WS 47.50 CSSA Mar 23-25 DHT Management (TCE: RV USD 35.96K @ 71.87 days / Actual USD 38.77K @ 68.53 days) 1.76 idle days
DHT Lotus (2011 - Modern Scrubber) On Subs WAfr/China WS 47.50 CSSA Mar 23-25 DHT Management (TCE: RV USD 35.96K @ 71.87 days / Actual USD 38.77K @ 68.53 days) 1.76 idle days
tnk tulemused https://www.teekay.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/TNK-Q4-2019-Earnings-Presentation.pdf
“All we know is that there has been an absolute plunge in rates for various classes of ship ... We know that container lines are doing empty sailings. It would be hundreds of hundreds of millions of dollars (that) would be in jeopardy now,” he said.
“In the tanker sector we know that rates have fallen by over 80% just in that one area alone,” Platten added.
https://www.reuters.com/article/china-health-shipping-idUSL5N2AQ5BZ
“In the tanker sector we know that rates have fallen by over 80% just in that one area alone,” Platten added.
https://www.reuters.com/article/china-health-shipping-idUSL5N2AQ5BZ
TNK +16% ja astun eelturult välja ära.
Tulemused normaalsed ja q1 tuleb hea nagu teada, mis häirib, et kasutatakse NAT võtteid raportis
$9.88/share 2020 EPS at Q4- 2019 spot rate levels
P/E ratio of 1.3x based on annualized Q4-2019 EPS
et tehakse kõige magusama kvartali pealt sellist mitte kenade võtetega müügitööd (ullikesed raudselt tormavad ostma, kes tankeritest midagi ei tea ja jahivad P/E).
Ise müüsin eile tõusu oma 6K tk maha 13,22$ (profit ülemine), 13,15$ (viimane tabas profit alumist stoppi) ja enne turu lõppu võtsin 1K 12,71$ loto piletiks, kuna turg täna nii punane, siis pigem varblane peos kui tuvi katusel 13,7$
Oman hunnik 17K DHT.
$9.88/share 2020 EPS at Q4- 2019 spot rate levels
P/E ratio of 1.3x based on annualized Q4-2019 EPS
et tehakse kõige magusama kvartali pealt sellist mitte kenade võtetega müügitööd (ullikesed raudselt tormavad ostma, kes tankeritest midagi ei tea ja jahivad P/E).
Ise müüsin eile tõusu oma 6K tk maha 13,22$ (profit ülemine), 13,15$ (viimane tabas profit alumist stoppi) ja enne turu lõppu võtsin 1K 12,71$ loto piletiks, kuna turg täna nii punane, siis pigem varblane peos kui tuvi katusel 13,7$
Oman hunnik 17K DHT.
Visahing
See võrdluseks teiste bronnidega
So far in the first quarter of 2020, the Euronav VLCC fleet operated in the Tankers
International Pool has earned about USD 89,200 per day and 60% of the available days
have been fixed. Euronav’s Suezmax fleet trading on the spot market has earned about
USD 57,500 per day on average with 51% of the available days fixed.
Üleval Euronav, all TNK, kuna hiljem teatab, siis rohkem fixed ja hinnad ka madalamad
In Q1 77% of available Suezmax days booked at $51,700. 66% of Aframax
No dividends expected in 2020 - endiselt ja näiteks Cleves analüütik kasutab copy paste hindamise tabelis, et tnk maksab 10% aastas dividendi.
VisahingVisahing
See võrdluseks teiste bronnidega
So far in the first quarter of 2020, the Euronav VLCC fleet operated in the Tankers
International Pool has earned about USD 89,200 per day and 60% of the available days
have been fixed. Euronav’s Suezmax fleet trading on the spot market has earned about
USD 57,500 per day on average with 51% of the available days fixed.
Üleval Euronav, all TNK, kuna hiljem teatab, siis rohkem fixed ja hinnad ka madalamad
In Q1 77% of available Suezmax days booked at $51,700. 66% of Aframax
Tänaseid hindu vaadata, siis võtaks iga kell pigem 77% at $51,700 kui 51% at $57,500
Frontline ka tulemused
Frontline's net earnings came to USD 108.8 million in the fourth quarter 2019, the highest result in more than 11 years. 2020 has started off well, but the coronavirus outbreak creates uncertainty, says CEO Robert Hvide Macleod
Frontline's net earnings came to USD 108.8 million in the fourth quarter 2019, the highest result in more than 11 years. 2020 has started off well, but the coronavirus outbreak creates uncertainty, says CEO Robert Hvide Macleod
TNK turu alguses -5% ja hetkel 14% üleval, nagu kogu grupp TGP,TK
TGP on ka ennast mugavalt ära sättinud.
97% fixed employment in 2020 and 92% in 2021 for its LNG fleet
97% fixed employment in 2020 and 92% in 2021 for its LNG fleet
Väike jupp TGP veel, annab ülevaate, kuidas Teekay grupp on seda ehitanud, järjest laevu lisades ja lepinguid tehes.
Teekay LNG has reached an important milestone with the completion of its growth program, with the delivery of its fifth and sixth 50% ARC7 LNG carrier a newbuilding for the Yamal LNG project which immediately commenced their respective 26 year charter contracts, as well as its 30% owned Bahrain regas terminal completed mechanical construction and commissioning and began receiving revenues in early January.
Teekay LNG has reached an important milestone with the completion of its growth program, with the delivery of its fifth and sixth 50% ARC7 LNG carrier a newbuilding for the Yamal LNG project which immediately commenced their respective 26 year charter contracts, as well as its 30% owned Bahrain regas terminal completed mechanical construction and commissioning and began receiving revenues in early January.
Frontline Ldt (fro) on päris tõsiselt hästi q1 paugutanud.
We declared a $0.40 dividend. The last dividend was $0.10, and was paid for Q3 of '19. VLCCs made $58,000 in Q4, and we have booked 83% at $90,000 for Q1. Suezmax has made $38,000 in Q4, and we have booked 75% around $72,000 for Q1. LR2s made around $30,000 in Q4, and we have booked 72% at $36,000 for Q1.
We declared a $0.40 dividend. The last dividend was $0.10, and was paid for Q3 of '19. VLCCs made $58,000 in Q4, and we have booked 83% at $90,000 for Q1. Suezmax has made $38,000 in Q4, and we have booked 75% around $72,000 for Q1. LR2s made around $30,000 in Q4, and we have booked 72% at $36,000 for Q1.
FRO
And while this can quickly change, the last time we saw the order book at present levels was back in 1997. We expect vessel off-hire to have a material impact on fleet capacity this year as it did in 2019. There are 137 VLCCs or 17% of the fleet due for dry dock in 2020. For Suezmaxes, the number is 109 or more than 20% of the fleet. Importantly, any off-hire related to scrubber installations is not included in this number.
As an example, a modern VLCC with a scrubber will be earning $30,000 a day at the same time as a large portion of the VLCC fleet will earn around their daily operating expenses.
And while this can quickly change, the last time we saw the order book at present levels was back in 1997. We expect vessel off-hire to have a material impact on fleet capacity this year as it did in 2019. There are 137 VLCCs or 17% of the fleet due for dry dock in 2020. For Suezmaxes, the number is 109 or more than 20% of the fleet. Importantly, any off-hire related to scrubber installations is not included in this number.
As an example, a modern VLCC with a scrubber will be earning $30,000 a day at the same time as a large portion of the VLCC fleet will earn around their daily operating expenses.
Müstika, tankerid rohelised, spy -3,6%
Visahing
Müstika, tankerid rohelised, spy -3,6%
Rohelised jah, ma ise ka DHT-s sees. Toornafta ja gaas langevad kõvasti, viirus teemaks ja naftanõudluse vähenemine. Visahing, sa rohkem selle sektoriga kursis, kas on sinu arvates loogilist seletust, et mis tankersektor hästi peab hetkel?
DHT on investeering long hea dividendiga, ootus q1 0,32.
TNK täna shortinud päeva alguse rallisid ja hetkel ka sees, ei ole see asi loogiline, et 10% ralli, kui nafta ja spy maas, silmapetet tehakse. Mitte midagi ei jagata aktsionäridele, kunagise tobu pärast, kes kallil ajal üle investeeris ebamõistliku hinnaga kasutatud laevu kokku ostes, on see laenukoormus seal kägistav ja terve 2020 plaanivad võlga tasuda + 50M matavad ballastivee puhastussüsteemidele. Analüütikud olid nii äksi täis nagu koerad, kes poleks tükk aega jahil käinud, aga oma põhi vastus oli NO, NO,NO dont dream. CEO tõid kõik välja,et viiruse mõju ei oska keegi hinnata, aga arvavad, et see ei kesta pikalt. Eile lugesin TNK,TK ja FRO läbi, TGP täna plaanis.
TGP oma fiks hinnaga ja mais suurendavad dividendi +30% (firma makse ei tasu, nuts kenasti kontole- bermuuda staff), aga mingil põhjusel võrreldes teiste Teekay asjadega täna miinust tiksutanud. TGP tegi ka tagasioste mingi X summa eest, keskmine hind 12,85$ aasta jooksul. Kuna TNK kütuse hinnad pole fiksitud, küll aga on 75% tarnelepingud olemas, siis siin tuleb kindlasti kena kokkuhoid ka kütuse pealt. See info pärineb TNK ja TK kõnest.
Su küsimuse sõnastus veidi arusaamatu, pead silmas kuhu investeerida firmasse või laevanduses?
FRO- maksab div ja q1 veel suuremat, q2 näpu lutsimine ja võimalik ka q3.
DHT vast tead ise, et pooled laevad scrubber
TNK täna shortinud päeva alguse rallisid ja hetkel ka sees, ei ole see asi loogiline, et 10% ralli, kui nafta ja spy maas, silmapetet tehakse. Mitte midagi ei jagata aktsionäridele, kunagise tobu pärast, kes kallil ajal üle investeeris ebamõistliku hinnaga kasutatud laevu kokku ostes, on see laenukoormus seal kägistav ja terve 2020 plaanivad võlga tasuda + 50M matavad ballastivee puhastussüsteemidele. Analüütikud olid nii äksi täis nagu koerad, kes poleks tükk aega jahil käinud, aga oma põhi vastus oli NO, NO,NO dont dream. CEO tõid kõik välja,et viiruse mõju ei oska keegi hinnata, aga arvavad, et see ei kesta pikalt. Eile lugesin TNK,TK ja FRO läbi, TGP täna plaanis.
TGP oma fiks hinnaga ja mais suurendavad dividendi +30% (firma makse ei tasu, nuts kenasti kontole- bermuuda staff), aga mingil põhjusel võrreldes teiste Teekay asjadega täna miinust tiksutanud. TGP tegi ka tagasioste mingi X summa eest, keskmine hind 12,85$ aasta jooksul. Kuna TNK kütuse hinnad pole fiksitud, küll aga on 75% tarnelepingud olemas, siis siin tuleb kindlasti kena kokkuhoid ka kütuse pealt. See info pärineb TNK ja TK kõnest.
Su küsimuse sõnastus veidi arusaamatu, pead silmas kuhu investeerida firmasse või laevanduses?
FRO- maksab div ja q1 veel suuremat, q2 näpu lutsimine ja võimalik ka q3.
DHT vast tead ise, et pooled laevad scrubber