TNK siis aasta algusest tõusnud 3x. Vana hinna järgi käis ära 3, enda viimane müük 2,2 ehk vara nagu ikka. Lihtsalt vähene kogemus asjadega, mis nii püstloodis liiguvad.
Kas TNK oktoobri trend lõppeb?
https://www.tradingview.com/x/tBWi6WiP/
Fundamentaal muidu püsib, ainuke küsimus on, et kas nendesse hindadesse pole juba kõik sisse arvetatud.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/tBWi6WiP/
Fundamentaal muidu püsib, ainuke küsimus on, et kas nendesse hindadesse pole juba kõik sisse arvetatud.
Kulu muutus 12K pealt 30K peale-suezmax tankeril,
By the first week of December, most clean owners with non-scrubber fitted tankers had converted bunkering tanks to the compliant VLSFO, and thus began and are continuing to calculate their time charter equivalent rates for spot voyages, particularly the long-haul runs, on the more expensive 0.5% bunker fuel.
By the first week of December, most clean owners with non-scrubber fitted tankers had converted bunkering tanks to the compliant VLSFO, and thus began and are continuing to calculate their time charter equivalent rates for spot voyages, particularly the long-haul runs, on the more expensive 0.5% bunker fuel.
Saab huvitav lugemine olema, see vend lasi ajastamisega paar aastat jalga (noh nagu mina) ja eile sain just Peter raamatu läbi, eeldan hirmsat üleskiitmist, arvestades, kaua ta seal kannatanud. FRO peaks ta olema korraliku litri saanud oma lühikesega. https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/839737-j-mintzmyer/5389270-peter-lynch-loves-shipping-stocks
Visahing
Allied weekly 21dec (24.12.2018) äge oli nüüd lugeda ja vaadata muutusi, tea palju seda teemat siin üldse inimesi jägib, aga enda päevikut pean edasi.
suezmax 82K, 58K
aframax
66K, 21K,41K,63K
Täna 24.12.2019
Päris huvitav lugemine, eriti, olla tankeris sügavalt sees ja siis küsida nõu Toomaselt, kes ei ütle, palju laevu lisandub, palju väheneb jne :) https://www.aripaev.ee/investor-toomas/2020/01/05/kui-kaua-tankerifirmade-muusika-mangib
Mina küsisin jah, aga ega ma midagi põrutavat uut lootnudki teada saada, lihtsalt Toomase seisukoht on huvitav - et kas ta suudab antud teemal mõne ohumärgi leida. Ikka päris keeruline on hetkel leida argumenti, et positsiooni vähendada. Üldiselt võib veel pool aastat rahulikult sees istuda.
Ja kohe järgmine artikkel paar pärva hiljem otsa, aga märksa optimistlikuma tooniga: https://www.aripaev.ee/borsiuudised/2020/01/06/vaavlikarbe-annab-tankeritele-hoogu
Ja kohe järgmine artikkel paar pärva hiljem otsa, aga märksa optimistlikuma tooniga: https://www.aripaev.ee/borsiuudised/2020/01/06/vaavlikarbe-annab-tankeritele-hoogu
Toomase käest ei tasu laevade kohta uurida, see ikka väga keerukas teema, loe parem tema kirjutisi, olen paar aastat jälginud, spetsialist. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4315187-shipping-outlook-2020-part-2-of-6-focus-crude-tankers?fbclid=IwAR1IDgZFKw5k_9kpo6_kuwReQs0hzyyw1zQUZOVXef-ziZSk2RLg7QLGZW0
Tegelikult laevu lisandub ja keegi vanarauda ei müü neid 20 aastaseid, see on reaalne erinevus haibist ja slaididest.
Tegelikult laevu lisandub ja keegi vanarauda ei müü neid 20 aastaseid, see on reaalne erinevus haibist ja slaididest.
Jõudsin ka kommini, kus James vastab lugeja küsimusele, mõte sama mis mul.
James Catlin
Comments1924 | Following
Author’s reply » Hello CaptKorn,
Thank you for reading and taking the time to ask for some additional info.
So, the scrapping market has been dead as of late in the crude tanker space. My data over at VesselsValue shows just four VLCCs retired last year with June of 2019 being the most recent.
In the back half of 2019 only three Suezmaxes (one being a shuttle) and a single Aframax were beached.
This low level of scrapping was actually predicted by me, almost a few years ago now, which came in stark contrast to other's forecasts.
My stance has not changed in several years: I have maintained that the degree of retirements induced by this mandate will be directly related to the cost of bunker fuel and older vessel maintenance balanced against any rise (or fall) in charter rates.
Rates are good and I predicted that bunker costs would not hit those astronomical levels that others predicted. All this led me to conclude that scrapping activity would likely remain muted in segments experiencing a bull run where rates were able to compensate for higher on the water costs.
James Catlin
Comments1924 | Following
Author’s reply » Hello CaptKorn,
Thank you for reading and taking the time to ask for some additional info.
So, the scrapping market has been dead as of late in the crude tanker space. My data over at VesselsValue shows just four VLCCs retired last year with June of 2019 being the most recent.
In the back half of 2019 only three Suezmaxes (one being a shuttle) and a single Aframax were beached.
This low level of scrapping was actually predicted by me, almost a few years ago now, which came in stark contrast to other's forecasts.
My stance has not changed in several years: I have maintained that the degree of retirements induced by this mandate will be directly related to the cost of bunker fuel and older vessel maintenance balanced against any rise (or fall) in charter rates.
Rates are good and I predicted that bunker costs would not hit those astronomical levels that others predicted. All this led me to conclude that scrapping activity would likely remain muted in segments experiencing a bull run where rates were able to compensate for higher on the water costs.
Esimesed punased ja tabelis, tundub, et puistelasti vedajatel ikka korralik krahh ja arvestades siin lahvatanud sõda, eriti vast paremaks ka ei lähe. Laevanduses on kõik kiire muutuma, nii tõus kui langus ja investorite-spekulantide meeleolu käib seinast seina, hetkel jaotakse juba mega dividende, arvestamata sellega, et kaks aastat on korraliku lossi sisse saadud. Mingil huvitaval põhjusel Euronav tekib vahendeid isegi juurde, kuigi otsest vajadust nagu ei näe- küll aeg näitab. https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ALLIED-Weekly-Market-Report_05_01_2020.pdf
Viimasest raportist tuleb välja, et kes panid scrubberid ja maksid 1M on võitjad.
The spread between high and low-sulphur fuel oil has surged to a record levels in the days following the implementation of IMO 2020 .he price of very-low-sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) is trading close to twice
the value of conventional high-sulphur fuel oil (HSFO).That is expected to provide a fillip for stocks of shipping companies with a high number of of scrubber-fitted vessels, which are expected to earn a charter premium.
In Singapore, spot prices for VLSFO have reached $756 per tonne,
against an HSFO price of $386, according to Fearnley Securities.
Since mid-2017, the spread has traded in a range of $150 to $250 per
tonne, according to data from BIMCO/Marine Bunker Exchange
(MABUX).
The spread between high and low-sulphur fuel oil has surged to a record levels in the days following the implementation of IMO 2020 .he price of very-low-sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) is trading close to twice
the value of conventional high-sulphur fuel oil (HSFO).That is expected to provide a fillip for stocks of shipping companies with a high number of of scrubber-fitted vessels, which are expected to earn a charter premium.
In Singapore, spot prices for VLSFO have reached $756 per tonne,
against an HSFO price of $386, according to Fearnley Securities.
Since mid-2017, the spread has traded in a range of $150 to $250 per
tonne, according to data from BIMCO/Marine Bunker Exchange
(MABUX).
Jah, Sinu viide on hea aga ikka ei aita jahutada mu optimismi :)
Ja minu tänase päeva lemmik: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4315429-j-mintzmyer-positions-for-2020-shipping-is-looking-strong?isDirectRoadblock=false&utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha
A lot of people look at tankers now and naturally think "oh, they've already run" because a lot of the names have moved up 50% or more in 2019. I had a lot of people tell me the same thing about Dorian (LPG) last June, when I was pounding the table at $8 and folks complained it "already ran" from $5. Dorian trades in the $15s now and it still isn't really expensive considering underlying asset values and cash flows.
There are many names in similar situations, such as Euronav (EURN), which is one of our top picks for 2020 (along with 11 other names) at Value Investor's Edge). EURN is a name that "already ran" from $8 to $13, but if these sorts of rates persist, EURN could generate more than $5 in free cash flow in a single year, pay dividends of up to $1/quarter, and easily trade into the $20s or higher. There are lots of risks if rates fail to persist of course, but the upside leverage on many of these names is extraordinary.
Ja minu tänase päeva lemmik: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4315429-j-mintzmyer-positions-for-2020-shipping-is-looking-strong?isDirectRoadblock=false&utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha
A lot of people look at tankers now and naturally think "oh, they've already run" because a lot of the names have moved up 50% or more in 2019. I had a lot of people tell me the same thing about Dorian (LPG) last June, when I was pounding the table at $8 and folks complained it "already ran" from $5. Dorian trades in the $15s now and it still isn't really expensive considering underlying asset values and cash flows.
There are many names in similar situations, such as Euronav (EURN), which is one of our top picks for 2020 (along with 11 other names) at Value Investor's Edge). EURN is a name that "already ran" from $8 to $13, but if these sorts of rates persist, EURN could generate more than $5 in free cash flow in a single year, pay dividends of up to $1/quarter, and easily trade into the $20s or higher. There are lots of risks if rates fail to persist of course, but the upside leverage on many of these names is extraordinary.
Eks minu asi pole kedagi veenda, olen ka kunagi loll olnud, liiga palju S.A suvalisi uskunud, kuna ükskord selle sama tankeriga sai -50K vee all oldud, on mul see maailm julgelt tehtud endale paremini selgeks, kui igal 3ndal kommijal seal S.A. Olen saanud ka naiivsusest lahti, et kõike, mis kirjutatakse, ei tasu uskuda, lihtsalt ma tean momente, milllest keegi ei räägi. Herb NAT pumpab asja rääkides asjadest nii, et tankeri kulu olekski vaid OPEX - jah, isegi tankeri omanikud ajavad mula, eriti see vend. Andis teada 100K fixed aastaks, tasuks vaadata viimast uudiskirja, mis hinnaga kui pikaks ajaks tanker fikseeriti jne. Hetke suurim pump tankeri hindades on tulnud kütuse hinna tõusust. Tankereid lisandub, mitte ei kao ära, need slaidid hetkel selliste hindadega ei kehti, kus ka usutavad firmad rääkivad, et 20 aastane laev on vanaraud. Jah, selle hooldus maksab rohkem, aga 50K juures päevas, iga 50 nädala tagant sellele hooldus teha ei ole probleem ja see 2m sirgu lasta. Lisaks on tankeri sektoris hooajad, pole siiani tankereid suvel sellise hinnaga näinud ja sügiseks on see suurem scrubberi teema juba möödas. Targemad võtavad selle 3x tõusu peale kasumit ja ootavad nüüd fundamentaali järgi, asjad hetkel on positiivsed, aga hetkel pendel on liiga ühte külge lennanud.
TNK -8% pump and damp
Seeria LNG-st https://seekingalpha.com/article/4315529-shipping-outlook-2020-part-3-of-6-focus-lng?li_source=LI&li_medium=liftigniter-widget
Puitselasti vedajate seis
he Baltic Exchange’s main sea freight index inched down on Thursday, falling for its 21st straight session, to an over eight-month low on lower demand across all vessels.
The Baltic index, which tracks rates for capesize, panamax and supramax vessels that ferry dry bulk commodities, declined 1 point, or 0.1%, to 772 points, its lowest level since April 17, 2019.
This is the smallest daily percentage fall since the index started its slide on Dec. 4.
The capesize index fell 42 points, or 3.5%, to 1,155 – its lowest since May 7.
Average daily earnings for capesizes, which typically transport 170,000-180,000 tonne cargoes including iron ore and coal, increased $179 to $9,199.
The panamax index declined 18 points, or 2.2%, to 785 points, its lowest since Feb. 27.
Average daily earnings for panamaxes, which usually carry coal or grain cargoes of about 60,000 tonnes to 70,000 tonnes, dipped $160 to $7,063.
The supramax index fell 12 points to 581.
Source: Reuters (Reporting by Harshith Aranya in Bengaluru; Editing by Krishna Chandra Eluri)
he Baltic Exchange’s main sea freight index inched down on Thursday, falling for its 21st straight session, to an over eight-month low on lower demand across all vessels.
The Baltic index, which tracks rates for capesize, panamax and supramax vessels that ferry dry bulk commodities, declined 1 point, or 0.1%, to 772 points, its lowest level since April 17, 2019.
This is the smallest daily percentage fall since the index started its slide on Dec. 4.
The capesize index fell 42 points, or 3.5%, to 1,155 – its lowest since May 7.
Average daily earnings for capesizes, which typically transport 170,000-180,000 tonne cargoes including iron ore and coal, increased $179 to $9,199.
The panamax index declined 18 points, or 2.2%, to 785 points, its lowest since Feb. 27.
Average daily earnings for panamaxes, which usually carry coal or grain cargoes of about 60,000 tonnes to 70,000 tonnes, dipped $160 to $7,063.
The supramax index fell 12 points to 581.
Source: Reuters (Reporting by Harshith Aranya in Bengaluru; Editing by Krishna Chandra Eluri)
Oilprice kinnitab ka veel üle hetke seisu.
Dry bulk shipping rates at 3-year low. The global dry bulk freight market is surprisingly weak, with rates at a 3-year low. “The weakness in the market now is something unlike we have ever seen,” a market participant told S&P Global Platts.
Dry bulk shipping rates at 3-year low. The global dry bulk freight market is surprisingly weak, with rates at a 3-year low. “The weakness in the market now is something unlike we have ever seen,” a market participant told S&P Global Platts.
Madala väävlisisaldusega kütusele üleminek 01.01.20 alates, 60000 ookeanialust.
"Shipping executives say the low-sulfur (ÜRO/IMO) directive alone will add around $50 billion in new fuel costs over the next three to four years, and they say they plan to pass the expenses on to cargo customers.
Low-sulfur fuel in Singapore, one of the world’s biggest refueling hubs, was quoted this week at an average $670 a ton, 64% higher than the $409 a ton for the heavy oil, known in the maritime sector as bunker, that has long powered ships. Bunkering brokers said the price spread is at least 10% higher than shipowners originally expected, but the gap is expected to narrow over the next couple of months." ja "Fuel represents up to half of a ship’s operating expenses, and some operators will see their earnings take a hit this year as the cost is absorbed through supply chains. “If shipping companies take on all the cost, they will collapse,” said Kitack Lim, secretary-general of the IMO
Some vessel operators, especially tanker owners, have chosen to limit their sulfur emissions with scrubbers." -WSJ
"Shipping executives say the low-sulfur (ÜRO/IMO) directive alone will add around $50 billion in new fuel costs over the next three to four years, and they say they plan to pass the expenses on to cargo customers.
Low-sulfur fuel in Singapore, one of the world’s biggest refueling hubs, was quoted this week at an average $670 a ton, 64% higher than the $409 a ton for the heavy oil, known in the maritime sector as bunker, that has long powered ships. Bunkering brokers said the price spread is at least 10% higher than shipowners originally expected, but the gap is expected to narrow over the next couple of months." ja "Fuel represents up to half of a ship’s operating expenses, and some operators will see their earnings take a hit this year as the cost is absorbed through supply chains. “If shipping companies take on all the cost, they will collapse,” said Kitack Lim, secretary-general of the IMO
Some vessel operators, especially tanker owners, have chosen to limit their sulfur emissions with scrubbers." -WSJ
Opex, eks see nii on jah, VLCC näiteks tarbib 100T päevas, suezmax 50T.
100x 600=60K
Mis paljud ära unustavad, siis TNk rääkis juba suvel, et topivad uue kütuse Q4 juba sisse.
Suezmax võtab 4000 peale ehk 2 kuud seilab, seega klapib tankeri hindade ralli ja kütuse tankimise aeg.
Kulu suurust peegeldab charter ja spot rate vahe.
See Euronavi 2009 fail selgitab hästi (kütuse hind laeva jaoks sama suuruses) https://drive.google.com/file/d/1JoM1L7VUii1OMz8RqbkNAs1ePPmUhG-M/view?usp=sharing
100x 600=60K
Mis paljud ära unustavad, siis TNk rääkis juba suvel, et topivad uue kütuse Q4 juba sisse.
Suezmax võtab 4000 peale ehk 2 kuud seilab, seega klapib tankeri hindade ralli ja kütuse tankimise aeg.
Kulu suurust peegeldab charter ja spot rate vahe.
See Euronavi 2009 fail selgitab hästi (kütuse hind laeva jaoks sama suuruses) https://drive.google.com/file/d/1JoM1L7VUii1OMz8RqbkNAs1ePPmUhG-M/view?usp=sharing
Ja hinnad alla sõidavad https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Weber-Weekly-03-20.pdf
Ja õpetus algajatele, selliseid lauseid nähes loe: pakkumine ületab nõudlust.
There were 23 fixtures reported this week, bringing the January cargo tally near
completion at 133, while February got underway with 14 reported fixtures thus far. This
leaves another 30 or so cargoes remaining through the first decade of February
compared to a position list with some 50 vessels available over that same period.
Disclimer: Ei oma, aga kauplen usinalt tehniliselt mõlemat poolt (eelistus lühike )
Ja õpetus algajatele, selliseid lauseid nähes loe: pakkumine ületab nõudlust.
There were 23 fixtures reported this week, bringing the January cargo tally near
completion at 133, while February got underway with 14 reported fixtures thus far. This
leaves another 30 or so cargoes remaining through the first decade of February
compared to a position list with some 50 vessels available over that same period.
Disclimer: Ei oma, aga kauplen usinalt tehniliselt mõlemat poolt (eelistus lühike )