James Crameri nimi jookseb üsna paljudest USA aktsiaturuga seotud kommentaaridest läbi, isegi Äripäev tsiteeris teda mõni aeg tagasi. Kes see mees siis on?
Kindlasti üsna huvitav isiksus, koloriitne on võib-olla isegi vähe öeldud. Aastatel 1988-2000 juhtis hedge-fondi Cramer Berkowitz Partners, kusjuures pea igal aastal ületati turu tootlust. Aastal 2000 otsustas ta sellest ärist välja tulla, pidev pinge tekitab ilmselt päris suure stressi. Aastal 2000 lahkumine oli ka ilmselt üsna hea ajastus. Lahkuma ei sundinud teda kindlasti rasked ajad, viimasel aastal teeniti veel 36% tootlust, kuigi turg lõpetas juba miinuses.
Kuigi www.thestreet.com uudisteportaali lõi (või õigemini oli üks loojatest) ta juba varem, siis viimastel aastatel on ta peamiselt sellele pühendanud, olles kindlasti seal kõige rohkem silmapaistev kirjutaja. Peamiselt on ta tegev antud saidi tasulisel poolel (www.realmoney.com) ja ta omab seal personaalset portfelli www.actionalerts.com , kus ta avaldab oma aktsiavalikud veel enne seda kui ta ise ostab. Viimasel aastal on tal seal väga hästi läinud ja seetõttu see teenus ka üsna populaarne. TheStreet.com (TSCM) kaupleb ka Nasdaqil.
Cramer võitleb igal rindel, esineb üsna tihti televisioonis (eelkõige CNBC), kirjutab raamatuid ja omab ka isiklikku raadioshow'd (kliki siin). Viimane on päris naljakas kuulamine - kuigi ta mõtted on üsnagi õiged, meenutab tema kõnemaneer Elu Sõna pastori oma. Olen lugenud raamatut tema kohta ("Trading with the enemy") ja see oli selline hea meelelahutus, lisaks aitab mõista börside telgitagust. Ka Crameri enda raamatud pidid olema üsna avameelsed.
Ma ise olen realmoney.com'i lugenud pea selle algusaegadest ja see 20 USD kuus on üsna asjalikult kulutatud raha, huvitavaid mõtteid saab sealt pidevalt. Crameri ideededele pole ma otsest rakendust leidnud, aga ilmselt minu lähenemine turgudele on tema omast piisavalt erinev.
Ma olen vaadanud teda telest (CNBC "Kudlow & Cramer"). Minu jaoks natuke liiga narviline tuup. Kui ei oleks rahulikku ja tunduvalt asjalikumat Kudlow'it korval, oleks nende saade uks husteeriline tomblemine, kus saatekulalisel usna raske oma motteid lopetada. Aga kusimused on teravad ja reageerimine kiire, selle eest tuleb kiita, kull aga jatab soovida pusivus ja oma emotsioonide vaoshoitus. Monikord arritub nii, et isegi saatekulaline ei suuda naeru pidada, televaatajast raakimata:)
Crameri raamatud oli minu jaoks paari aasta eest täielikuks eye-openeriks. Ühe kirjutas tema hedge fundis töötanud noor kaupleja (Trading with The Enemy) ning teise ta ise (Confessions of a Street Addict).
K: Kuidas edukalt ja kiiresti lühikeseks müügiga raha teenida?
V: Kõigepealt tuleb ennast päev varem lühikeseks müüa ja siis saata noor tüüp järgmisel hommikul firma conference callile ja lasta küsida üle kogu saali: "WHEN THE F*CK ARE YOU GOING TO ISSUE THAT PROFIT WARNING?"
Tunni pärast ilmub areenile suur müüja, kes viib hinna 1-1.5 pt alla.
Soovitan soojalt kõigile, kel kauplemisega mingisugust seost.
Äkki on kellegil huvitav lugeda, kopeerin siia ühe tänase loo. Autoriks üks Crameri kolleege, minu silmis üsna kõrge respektiga Doug Kass.
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Holidays are for fun, family and reflection, especially as we near the year's end. I will concentrate on the reflection part today and hopefully will give Street Insight subscribers -- especially our relatively new subscribers -- a sense of the factors that have molded my investment persona.
Fifty-some-odd years ago, I embarked on a rich personal and professional life full of successes and failures. Never dull, I have tried to embrace life and the markets with gusto and anticipation.
Soon after my birth, the Dow Jones Industrial Average embarked on a new bull market rally from about 160 to over 300 by the beginning of the 1950s. In 1950, the largest monthly change in the DJIA for the full year was only 14 points!
My grandmother, Grandma Koufax, was a great stock trader and investor. She owned her own business well before it was fashionable for women to be entrepreneurs. She was well ahead of her time. By the time I was 16 years old, she had taught me to chart stocks in a small notebook that I kept with me at all times. I charted my imaginary "holdings" daily, and spent my Christmas and Easter holidays in a Long Island brokerage office watching the tape all day (at that time the market was only open for a few hours each day) as if I was watching a movie. My preoccupation with the markets, especially during those holidays, led some of my friends to think that I was weird. In retrospect, they were insightful!
I made my first real trade while getting my MBA at Wharton. After weeks of analysis, I bought a couple of shares of Teledyne (TDY:NYSE - commentary - research) (and I really mean just a couple!). Run by Dr. Henry Singleton, it was the Google (GOOG:Nasdaq - commentary - research) of its time, a stock of the decade that went up nearly tenfold. With the proceeds of that first big trade, I purchased my first automobile, a Triumph sports car. By then, I was immersed in the stock market -- you could say I was almost addicted -- even before I had my first job on the Street.
At Wharton, I learned the theories behind portfolio management and securities analysis on the way to getting my MBA. While at the University of Pennsylvania, I met Ralph Nader and I co-authored Citibank: The Ralph Nader Report with Ralph and the Center for the Study of Responsive Law. My contribution to that book also became my master's thesis.
My first job was as a housing analyst at the venerable brokerage firm Kidder Peabody. I learned how to prepare company spreadsheets and about the integrity of independent analysis under Director of Research Johann Gouws, who had successfully led one of the first research boutiques (H.C. Wainright) into prominence earlier. Interestingly, my office was next to Julian Robertson, soon to be of Tiger Management, who at the time was a retail broker!
After a few years, I ended up at Putnam Management, considered one of the premier money managers extant, in Boston. I worked under two individuals, Larry Lasser and Jerry Jordan (The Chief), who profoundly influenced my career by teaching me how to logically process data and to succinctly develop that data into a well-reasoned and profitable analytical conclusion. Jerry, in particular, taught me how and when to press an investment decision -- a technique that is quite important in the hedge fund business today.
Glickenhaus & Co. was my next stop, where I honed my money management skills under the talented and legendary Seth Glickenhaus. It is through his influence that I became a contrarian and began to regularly take variant views against the market's prevailing bias. I had my own money management firm during most of the 1980s and, while experiencing some periods of success, I learned the importance of a team.
In the late 1980s, I acquired a large 13-D position in a NYSE-listed company, thinking that I was going to become the next takeover king. I quickly learned to stick to my knitting -- analyzing and investing, not taking over companies.
But I should digress. During the mid-1980s I took up driving harness horses as a hobby. I broke a world record and one of my horses, Kassa Branca (a play on words from the movie Casablanca and named for me and Brooklyn Dodger pitching great Ralph Branca), won a million-dollar race! Unfortunately in 1990, I was almost killed in a harness racing accident while driving in a race in Pennsylvania. I was in a body cast and wheelchair for nearly two years, and I still feel the physical pain daily.
The supine position gives one a lot of time to contemplate one's future.
By 1992, I was able to work again (though I still could not walk unaided) and while running the research and institutional department at First Albany, I met Alan Abelson of Barron's. That relationship led to a cover story that I wrote for Barron's on Marvel Entertainment (a negative assessment of Marvel's prospects, and the company ultimately filed bankruptcy). That start was followed by approximately 30 interviews and articles over the years in Abelson's column or in other areas of Barron's.
I believe my relationships with Ralph Nader and Alan Abelson as well as my period of time reflecting on life after my accident importantly framed the manner in which I have viewed markets and companies -- a glass half empty, if you will.
A stint with the remarkable Leon Cooperman at Omega Advisors taught me the tough hedge fund game and independence of analysis, after which I started my own partnerships, which I have had for nearly seven years.
I sit here grateful and satisfied, though looking forward to the continued challenges presented by the markets with enthusiasm and excitement.
It seems as if I have never had a dull moment in the investment business over the last three decades. What moves me is that it seems that there are new and different variables to consider every day, and with over 6,000 publicly-traded securities, projects are rarely duplicated.
Ma lisan ühe enda heietuse ka siia. Istusin mina eelkooli ukse taga last oodates ja lugesin Jim Crameri nn rohelist raamatut. Seal oli ka teisi lapsevanemaid. Minu kõrval istuv preili tundis ühel hetkel huvi, et mida ma loen. Näitasin talle raamatu kaant. Tema omakorda läks silmnähtavalt rõõmsamaks ja ütles "Ma tean, ma olen selle läbi lugenud". Minu esimene mõte oli, et mis ta blufib, naguinii ei ole. Minu küsiva pilgu peale aga seletas, "minu õde on psühhiaater, tema uurib kurjategijaid, tema andis". Siis läks mul pilt paika. Jim Cramer on täiuslik õpikunäide maniakaalsest inimesest. Ja maniakaalsed on tüüpilised geeniused ja/või kurjategijad.
abesiki vist kuskil kirjutas, et läbi löönutel inimestel on olemas idee ja "kiiks". Crameri oma on ainuüksi raamatute pealt näha. Mis muidugi ei vähenda tema asjalikkust :). Aga huvitav fakt iseenesest et psühhiaatrid sama raamatut õpikuna kasutavad teemal "selline on teie patsient" kust kauplejad endale vaimujõudu ammutamas käivad.
• This could be the big down day we have been expecting in this triple-witching week. • It's a chance to buy stocks at lower levels than you ordinarily would have.
Olen ka ise uks Cramerica elanik ja jarjest rohkem hakkab elu sellel maal meeldima:) Kannatust voiks teinekord ainult natuke rohkem olla...sest Cramerica elanikke on palju ja iive suur, taksojuhid voidavad iga kell fondijuhte:)
Kristjan, kui vahegi voimalik, vaatan saadet. Ja toesti, saade on vaatamist vaart, ka finantsilises mottes. Naiteks tema kaesoleva nadala picki - TEX - tegin kaasa. Ostsin seda veel reedel enne turu loppu $48.5 pealt, saate ajal muusin maha 49.33, kuid...praegu on hind ule $51!
Mida rohkem populaarsemaks saade muutub, seda kergem on raha teha...aga koik see kestab mingi teatud kriitilise punktini.
Igaljuhul praegu katsun enne saadet possu sisse votta, sel juhul on kasum kindel. Ka saate ajal voetud possud on kiire tegutsemise korral alati kasumit toonud, aga eelistan siiski enne saadet positsioone votta.
