Jälgides iga päev NASDAQ-i website'ilt Most Active lehekülge, hakkab silma biotehnoloogia aktsiate osakaal. Biotehnoloogia aktsiad on harilikult suuremad tõusjad ja muidugi ka langejad. Tundub, et kui vähegi saaks aru selle sektori põhimõtetest, oskaks kompaniisid analüüsida, siis võib õieti ajastatud investeering tuua hea reward'i.
Pidevalt tehakse uusi avastusi ja chemistry abil parandatakse oluliselt inimeste karakteristikuid. Peagi võib ära unustada jõusaalid, sest vastavate tablettide abil saab ühe päevaga vastavaid lihaseid suurendada; ilukirurgid, kes implant'e paigaldavad, kaotavad oma töö, sest tablettidega saab igaüks vormida iga poole aasta tagant sobiva rinnakuju; pissida võib ka üle päeva, kui geneetiliselt suurendatud põis seda lubab, jne, jne.
Siit küsimus-- kustkohast biotech'i kohta tõsisemat informatsiooni saaks?
Paljud tasulised allikad pakuvad head infi selle kohta. Näiteks First Call :) Aga tasuta saab alati kvartaliaruandeid SECi koduleheküljelt, www.metamarkets.com all on sageli biotechkommentaare, tõsi tüübid kaotavad ise raha sellega enamasti...sama lugu ka tasulise realmoney.com biotech-tibi Lissa Morgenthaleriga, kelle biotech-fond on üks sitemaid omasuguste hulgas...jne... Unistus, et jess - uuriks biotechi ja teeks pappi sellega, on teostamatu, trust me, see on news-driven industry, kus võid ühe ööga kaotada 70% oma rahast, seda hetkel, kus oled teinud all available homework... GNLB, TTP on viimased head näited.
Idee poolest 100% nõus - biotehnoloogial on tulevikku küll-ja-küll.
Kuid võimesse potentsiaaliga biotehnoloogia-aktsiad välja sõeluda suhtun eriti suure skepsisega. Selleks peaks omama suurepäraseid teadmisi nii süva-biotehnoloogiast kui finantsmaailmast. Ja kahtlen kas meist keegi omab neid.
Üks võimalus on muidugi screenida ilusasti kasumit toovaid biotehnlooge, kuid biotehnoloogiat ostetakse ju põhiliselt tuleviku pärast ja seega pole antud hetkel kasumlike stokkide ostmisel suurt point'i.
My take - kui midagi üldse osta, siis biotehnoloogia (BTK) indeksit, üksikute stokkide ostmine on täiega kasiino.
Ostsin USAst mingi raamatu "Biotech Investor's Bible", mis hoolimata oma pretensioonikast pealkirjast annab p2ris asjaliku ylevaate, mida silmas peab pidama. See ei t2henda, et k6iki neid p6him6tteid j2rgides tingimata kasum tuleks, a noh...
Burrill's predictions: -- We will see more collaboration and M&A activity as the industry continues to bridge technological gaps and achieve more integration in an effort to move towards a more automated and efficient approach to drug discovery and development. We'll also see more success stories in the personalized medicine arena as companies grasp the benefits of parallel drug discovery (where the diagnostic and therapeutic are developed synergistically) and are able to design more effective clinical trails by stratifying patient populations according to their genetic predisposition. -- The debate over stem cell and cloning technologies will continue and we may very well experience a setback in this important area if emotion and misunderstanding win over sound scientific reasoning. -- Although PDUFA III has been hammered out to the industry and the government's liking, there is still no commissioner at the FDA -- a situation that is, according to nearly every pharmaceutical and biotech company, topping their list of problems with the agency. -- With bioterrorism legislation and funding in place, we will see more and more contracts doled out to biotech companies working on new vaccines and therapeutics to treat infectious diseases and we'll see improved diagnostics, especially those that are quick, effective, and inexpensive. We'll also see improvements in the medical and public health infrastructure in many states in the US ... in fact, these efforts are already underway. -- Diagnostics will continue to gain in importance. Indeed, the Burrill Diagnostics Index has consistently outperformed the NASDAQ and DJIA since the start of the year and had gained 1.2% by the end of May. The recent announcement (June 5) from LabCorp to offer Myriad Genetics' predictive medicine products to 200,000 LabCorp US physician clients underscores the growing importance of the molecular diagnostics industry ... increasing evidence of our march toward personalized medicine. -- Some areas of biotech, most notably the platform toolbox companies, will keep on struggling and morphing their business models into ones that have more appeal on Wall Street ... but chasing Wall Street's value model is always dangerous. -- Agbio will continue its upward trend as GMO's gain further acceptance among farmers and consumers. We will see more recovery and investment in this area as agbio companies continue to explore the use of transgenic plants for therapeutic protein production and turning crops into biofuels. -- We're going to see interest in biotech grow on the international front. The new biotechnology strategy coming from the European Commission will stimulate the industry, and we'll see an increase in US/International collaborations and acquisitions. -- Asia will also emerge as a more powerful global players, using Asia's strengths -- strong capital markets, large unmet medical needs, rapidly growing populations-both to deploy the world's technology at home and to invest in the global arena. In addition, the introduction of traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) to the world stage (and particularly to the United States) has fostered new science and new tools to elucidate active ingredients. Asia is eager for the technology and business opportunities in the Western world offers and vice-versa. Now that China has jointed the WTO, one of the biggest stumbling blocks for Western business investment -- the potential threat to IP protection -- will have (hopefully) been removed. -- And, as for the capital markets, we are likely, despite our slow start, to see a dozen or more IPOs before year end. We'll see PIPEs continuing to be a popular form of financing and we'll also see a flurry of secondaries. Although convertible debt has been a popular vehicle so far, we may see less of this activity as the capital markets gain strength and biotech's popularity resurges. We'll see a $15-$20 billion financing year and we'll see biotech once again outperforming the NASDAQ and the DJIA by the fourth quarter ... that is, barring another terrorist attack or an intensification of our military presence in the volatile Middle East.
ja mis siis viimastel kuudel on juhtund:
March - Bad News
ISTA ISTA $2.83 $0.91 -68% Vitrase, injectable treatment for vitreous hemorrhage, fails to meet primary endpoints in Phase III studies
GLFD Guilford $9.63 $8.14 -15% Gliadel wafer received a non-approvable letter for a supplemental application for use in malignant glioma
VPHM Viropharma $13.41 $5.50 -59% Picovir, which reduces the duration of a cold only one day, is voted against in FDA Panel of experts
CRXA Corixa $9.63 $6.15 -36% Bexxar, for Hodgkin's-Type Lymphoma, is notified by FDA that current data is insufficient for approval
March - Good News
ELN Elan Corp. $14.00 $14.20 1% Avinza, for chronic moderate to severe pain, received FDA regulatory approval
LGND Ligand $16.52 $18.05 9% Avinza, for chronic moderate to severe pain, received FDA regulatory approval
SRA Serono SA $19.59 $22.21 13% Rebif, interferon for treatment of multiple sclerosis, gains FDA Approval
April - Bad News
CVAS Corvas $5.98 $3.15 -47% UK-279,276, drug for ischemic stroke, failed to meet primary endpoints in Phase IIb and was abandoned
MOGN MGI Pharma $14.75 $8.59 -42% Irofulven, for gemcitabine-refractory pancreatic cancer, Phase III Trial stopped and drug abandoned
XOMA Xoma Ltd. $7.63 $4.42 -42% Xanelim, a psoriasis drug, produced poor pharmacokinetic data in preparation for market
DNA Genentech $48.99 $44.70 -9% Xanelim, a psoriasis drug, produced poor pharmacokinetic data in preparation for market
April - Good News
TRMS Trimeris $39.25 $50.50 29% T-20, HIV Fusion Inhibitor, has better than expected results in a Phase III trial
ISTA ISTA $0.83 $1.27 53% Vitrase, injectable for treatment of vitreous hemorrhage, gets go-ahead to submit NDA after new endpoint is recognized
May - Bad News
IBPI Intrabiotics $3.90 $1.19 -69% Iseganan, designed to prevent oral mucositis in radiotherapy patients, identical to placebo in Phase III Trial
EMIS Emisphere $10.96 $5.16 -53% Oral Heparin, anticoagulant/antithrombotic agent, fails against incumbent drug in Phase III
VPHM ViroPharma $4.25 $3.33 -22% Picovir, which reduces the duration of a cold only one day, anticipates a "Not Approvable" letter from FDA
PDLI Protein Design Labs $12.27 $12.28 0% Zamyl, acute myeloid leukemia treatment, failed to show statistical significance against placebo in Phase III
EMIS Emisphere $10.96 $5.16 -53% Oral Heparin, anticoagulant/antithrombotic agent, fails against incumbent drug in Phase III
May - Good News
BGEN Biogen $40.36 $49.47 23% Amevive, novel psoriasis drug, is recommended for approval by FDA Panel of experts
UTHR United $13.65 $14.71 8% Remodulin, for treatment of pulmonary arterial hypertension, approved by FDA after design of Phase IV
Average effect of good news 19% Average effect of bad news -40% Ratio Bad News to Good News 13 to 7 Nearly 2:1 prevalence of bad to good news
know howd on biotechis investeerimiseks küll tarvis, eriti kui olete long. ise hoian eemale enamustest suurtest tegijatest nagu amgen, genentech, biogen etc. viimased paar nädalat olen suunanud hulga raha mlnm, hgsi ja imgn suunas. nad kõik on odavad praegu, umbes 1.5Xbook value. Eriti julmalt on alla löödud mlnm, kuigi neil on väga hea pipeline. eelmise nädala uudis fast track approvalist ei suutnud isegi ära hoida fondide sell offi. arvan et kolme aasta pärast on nad plussis ja selleks ajaks on neil peale integrillini veel kaks ravimit toodangus. immunogenil on hea tehnoloogia kuigi parajalt riskantne. tema osakaal portfellis ei tohiks olla suurem kui paar protsenti. olen mõelnud shortida celerat aga olen vist hiljaks jäänud. see on ikka üks tobe farma-to-be. pole neil ju midagi ette näidata ja nende ip on ka päris nõrk ja pipeline on täitsa tühi. Sama kehtib ka incyte kohta.
Biotehnoloogia on tõesti huvitav ja targale investorile ilmselt ka tulutoov.
KUID, tark investor biotehnoloogia vallas olema lõpetanud ilmselt nii majandus- (et hammustada läbi ettevõtete bilanssidest) kui ka arstiteaduskonna (et eristada "terasid sõkaldest - millised biotechid kujunevad edukaks).
Minule käib viimane punkt üle jõu ja seega ei julge üksikutesse biotehnoloogia aktsiatesse pikaajaliselt investeerida. Aga 10-20% portfellist biotehnoloogia indeksisse (kas BTK või IBB) panna oleks minu meelest riskialtile investorile küll hea mõte.