Huvi biotehnoloogia vastu

Jälgides iga päev NASDAQ-i website'ilt Most Active lehekülge, hakkab silma biotehnoloogia aktsiate osakaal. Biotehnoloogia aktsiad on harilikult suuremad tõusjad ja muidugi ka langejad. Tundub, et kui vähegi saaks aru selle sektori põhimõtetest, oskaks kompaniisid analüüsida, siis võib õieti ajastatud investeering tuua hea reward'i.

Pidevalt tehakse uusi avastusi ja chemistry abil parandatakse oluliselt inimeste karakteristikuid. Peagi võib ära unustada jõusaalid, sest vastavate tablettide abil saab ühe päevaga vastavaid lihaseid suurendada; ilukirurgid, kes implant'e paigaldavad, kaotavad oma töö, sest tablettidega saab igaüks vormida iga poole aasta tagant sobiva rinnakuju; pissida võib ka üle päeva, kui geneetiliselt suurendatud põis seda lubab, jne, jne.

Siit küsimus-- kustkohast biotech'i kohta tõsisemat informatsiooni saaks?

Vastukajad?

Anna meiliaadress.
miks mitte foorum?
Paljud tasulised allikad pakuvad head infi selle kohta. Näiteks First Call :)
Aga tasuta saab alati kvartaliaruandeid SECi koduleheküljelt, www.metamarkets.com all on sageli biotechkommentaare, tõsi tüübid kaotavad ise raha sellega enamasti...sama lugu ka tasulise realmoney.com biotech-tibi Lissa Morgenthaleriga, kelle biotech-fond on üks sitemaid omasuguste hulgas...jne...
Unistus, et jess - uuriks biotechi ja teeks pappi sellega, on teostamatu, trust me, see on news-driven industry, kus võid ühe ööga kaotada 70% oma rahast, seda hetkel, kus oled teinud all available homework... GNLB, TTP on viimased head näited.
Loowi: soren.vetevool@lhv.ee
Loowi, thanks. Research oli huvitav.
Loowi, su enda tehtud research v6i?
Tahad kirjas6braks saada v2?
Idee poolest 100% nõus - biotehnoloogial on tulevikku küll-ja-küll.

Kuid võimesse potentsiaaliga biotehnoloogia-aktsiad välja sõeluda suhtun eriti suure skepsisega. Selleks peaks omama suurepäraseid teadmisi nii süva-biotehnoloogiast kui finantsmaailmast. Ja kahtlen kas meist keegi omab neid.

Üks võimalus on muidugi screenida ilusasti kasumit toovaid biotehnlooge, kuid biotehnoloogiat ostetakse ju põhiliselt tuleviku pärast ja seega pole antud hetkel kasumlike stokkide ostmisel suurt point'i.

My take - kui midagi üldse osta, siis biotehnoloogia (BTK) indeksit, üksikute stokkide ostmine on täiega kasiino.
vaata www.biospace.com, see on just biole orinteeritud investoritele!
Vahest erineb muust kasiinost(loe:investeerimisest) vaid tõepoolest pikema tsükli tõttu uurimisest/arendusest müügini?
Ostsin USAst mingi raamatu "Biotech Investor's Bible", mis hoolimata oma pretensioonikast pealkirjast annab p2ris asjaliku ylevaate, mida silmas peab pidama. See ei t2henda, et k6iki neid p6him6tteid j2rgides tingimata kasum tuleks, a noh...
Some fun QQQ facts ---

o) AMGN is the 6th largest stock on the NASDAQ market. Bigger than DELL, SUNW, AMAT, WCOM, and JDSU among other notable tech stocks.

o) ABGX has a bigger weighting than AMZN.

o) In the last month, 18 stocks in the NASDAQ 100 are up - 6 of them are biotechs
Inffi saab ka päris lähedalt ja päris varsti: www.geneforum.ee
Kui kellegil testimiseks katsejäneseid vaja, siis www.geenipank.ee abiks.

Suht koledad jänesed ainult.
LOL
Burrill's predictions:
-- We will see more collaboration and M&A activity as the industry
continues to bridge technological gaps and achieve more integration
in an effort to move towards a more automated and efficient approach
to drug discovery and development. We'll also see more success
stories in the personalized medicine arena as companies grasp the
benefits of parallel drug discovery (where the diagnostic and
therapeutic are developed synergistically) and are able to design
more effective clinical trails by stratifying patient populations
according to their genetic predisposition.
-- The debate over stem cell and cloning technologies will continue and
we may very well experience a setback in this important area if
emotion and misunderstanding win over sound scientific reasoning.
-- Although PDUFA III has been hammered out to the industry and the
government's liking, there is still no commissioner at the FDA -- a
situation that is, according to nearly every pharmaceutical and
biotech company, topping their list of problems with the agency.
-- With bioterrorism legislation and funding in place, we will see more
and more contracts doled out to biotech companies working on new
vaccines and therapeutics to treat infectious diseases and we'll see
improved diagnostics, especially those that are quick, effective,
and inexpensive. We'll also see improvements in the medical and
public health infrastructure in many states in the US ... in fact,
these efforts are already underway.
-- Diagnostics will continue to gain in importance. Indeed, the
Burrill Diagnostics Index has consistently outperformed the NASDAQ
and DJIA since the start of the year and had gained 1.2% by the end
of May. The recent announcement (June 5) from LabCorp to offer
Myriad Genetics' predictive medicine products to 200,000 LabCorp US
physician clients underscores the growing importance of the
molecular diagnostics industry ... increasing evidence of our march
toward personalized medicine.
-- Some areas of biotech, most notably the platform toolbox companies,
will keep on struggling and morphing their business models into ones
that have more appeal on Wall Street ... but chasing Wall Street's
value model is always dangerous.
-- Agbio will continue its upward trend as GMO's gain further
acceptance among farmers and consumers. We will see more recovery
and investment in this area as agbio companies continue to explore
the use of transgenic plants for therapeutic protein production and
turning crops into biofuels.
-- We're going to see interest in biotech grow on the international
front. The new biotechnology strategy coming from the European
Commission will stimulate the industry, and we'll see an increase in
US/International collaborations and acquisitions.
-- Asia will also emerge as a more powerful global players, using
Asia's strengths -- strong capital markets, large unmet medical
needs, rapidly growing populations-both to deploy the world's
technology at home and to invest in the global arena. In addition,
the introduction of traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) to the world
stage (and particularly to the United States) has fostered new
science and new tools to elucidate active ingredients. Asia is
eager for the technology and business opportunities in the Western
world offers and vice-versa. Now that China has jointed the WTO,
one of the biggest stumbling blocks for Western business investment
-- the potential threat to IP protection -- will have (hopefully)
been removed.
-- And, as for the capital markets, we are likely, despite our slow
start, to see a dozen or more IPOs before year end. We'll see PIPEs
continuing to be a popular form of financing and we'll also see a
flurry of secondaries. Although convertible debt has been a popular
vehicle so far, we may see less of this activity as the capital
markets gain strength and biotech's popularity resurges. We'll see
a $15-$20 billion financing year and we'll see biotech once again
outperforming the NASDAQ and the DJIA by the fourth quarter ... that
is, barring another terrorist attack or an intensification of our
military presence in the volatile Middle East.

ja mis siis viimastel kuudel on juhtund:

March - Bad News

ISTA ISTA $2.83 $0.91 -68% Vitrase, injectable
treatment for vitreous
hemorrhage, fails to
meet primary endpoints
in Phase III studies

GLFD Guilford $9.63 $8.14 -15% Gliadel wafer received
a non-approvable letter
for a supplemental
application for use in
malignant glioma

VPHM Viropharma $13.41 $5.50 -59% Picovir, which reduces
the duration of a cold
only one day, is voted
against in FDA Panel
of experts

CRXA Corixa $9.63 $6.15 -36% Bexxar, for
Hodgkin's-Type
Lymphoma, is notified
by FDA that current data
is insufficient for
approval

March - Good News

ELN Elan Corp. $14.00 $14.20 1% Avinza, for chronic
moderate to severe pain,
received FDA regulatory
approval

LGND Ligand $16.52 $18.05 9% Avinza, for chronic
moderate to severe pain,
received FDA regulatory
approval

SRA Serono SA $19.59 $22.21 13% Rebif, interferon for
treatment of multiple
sclerosis, gains FDA
Approval

April - Bad News

CVAS Corvas $5.98 $3.15 -47% UK-279,276, drug for
ischemic stroke, failed
to meet primary endpoints
in Phase IIb and was
abandoned

MOGN MGI Pharma $14.75 $8.59 -42% Irofulven, for
gemcitabine-refractory
pancreatic cancer,
Phase III Trial stopped
and drug abandoned

XOMA Xoma Ltd. $7.63 $4.42 -42% Xanelim, a psoriasis drug,
produced poor
pharmacokinetic data in
preparation for market

DNA Genentech $48.99 $44.70 -9% Xanelim, a psoriasis drug,
produced poor
pharmacokinetic data in
preparation for market

April - Good News

TRMS Trimeris $39.25 $50.50 29% T-20, HIV Fusion Inhibitor,
has better than expected
results in a Phase III
trial

ISTA ISTA $0.83 $1.27 53% Vitrase, injectable for
treatment of vitreous
hemorrhage, gets go-ahead
to submit NDA after new
endpoint is recognized

May - Bad News

IBPI Intrabiotics $3.90 $1.19 -69% Iseganan, designed to
prevent oral mucositis in
radiotherapy patients,
identical to placebo in
Phase III Trial

EMIS Emisphere $10.96 $5.16 -53% Oral Heparin,
anticoagulant/antithrombotic
agent, fails against
incumbent drug in
Phase III

VPHM ViroPharma $4.25 $3.33 -22% Picovir, which reduces
the duration of a cold
only one day, anticipates
a "Not Approvable" letter
from FDA

PDLI Protein Design Labs $12.27 $12.28 0% Zamyl, acute myeloid
leukemia treatment,
failed to show
statistical significance
against placebo in
Phase III

EMIS Emisphere $10.96 $5.16 -53% Oral Heparin,
anticoagulant/antithrombotic
agent, fails against
incumbent drug in
Phase III

May - Good News

BGEN Biogen $40.36 $49.47 23% Amevive, novel psoriasis
drug, is recommended for
approval by FDA Panel of
experts

UTHR United $13.65 $14.71 8% Remodulin, for treatment
of pulmonary arterial
hypertension, approved by
FDA after design of
Phase IV

Average effect of good news 19%
Average effect of bad news -40%
Ratio Bad News to Good News 13 to 7 Nearly 2:1 prevalence of bad to good news




know howd on biotechis investeerimiseks küll tarvis, eriti kui olete long. ise hoian eemale enamustest suurtest tegijatest nagu amgen, genentech, biogen etc. viimased paar nädalat olen suunanud hulga raha mlnm, hgsi ja imgn suunas. nad kõik on odavad praegu, umbes 1.5Xbook value. Eriti julmalt on alla löödud mlnm, kuigi neil on väga hea pipeline. eelmise nädala uudis fast track approvalist ei suutnud isegi ära hoida fondide sell offi. arvan et kolme aasta pärast on nad plussis ja selleks ajaks on neil peale integrillini veel kaks ravimit toodangus. immunogenil on hea tehnoloogia kuigi parajalt riskantne. tema osakaal portfellis ei tohiks olla suurem kui paar protsenti.
olen mõelnud shortida celerat aga olen vist hiljaks jäänud. see on ikka üks tobe farma-to-be. pole neil ju midagi ette näidata ja nende ip on ka päris nõrk ja pipeline on täitsa tühi. Sama kehtib ka incyte kohta.
Biotehnoloogia on tõesti huvitav ja targale investorile ilmselt ka tulutoov.

KUID, tark investor biotehnoloogia vallas olema lõpetanud ilmselt nii majandus- (et hammustada läbi ettevõtete bilanssidest) kui ka arstiteaduskonna (et eristada "terasid sõkaldest - millised biotechid kujunevad edukaks).

Minule käib viimane punkt üle jõu ja seega ei julge üksikutesse biotehnoloogia aktsiatesse pikaajaliselt investeerida. Aga 10-20% portfellist biotehnoloogia indeksisse (kas BTK või IBB) panna oleks minu meelest riskialtile investorile küll hea mõte.




ka ML holdersid BBH ja PPH pole pahad