ma ei saa lahti mõttest, et kommunaari jalatsivabrik oleks võinud olla Eesti Nokia oma puukottadega kui neid oleks saanud õieti turustada kas usas või globaalselt. Või mis Nokia, rohkem nagu Eesti Crocs.
Huvitav, et mul tuli ka CROX meelde seoses ses kontekstis, et munagi mulli ajal maksis ka Nokia 60 eurot. Nüüdseks on aktsiaid tagasi ostetud jne, aga huind on peale 9 al käimist Nokial ikkagi 20 tuuris. Samas oleks keruline võrrelda Nokia ja CROXi potentsiaali, isegi siis kui me vaatame Nokiat ka aastal 2000. Ainukene moment vast see, et USAs pole Nokia vist kunagi ilma teinud.
Sestap ma CROXi investeerimise mõttes raha ei paneks:-)
Sestap ma CROXi investeerimise mõttes raha ei paneks:-)
09:42 CROX Crocs: Piper Jaffray cuts their 2008 and 2009 ests below consensus, saying retail traffic remains severely depressed; firm cuts tgt to $44 from $67 (18.35 -0.84) -Update-
Henno postitusele lisaks ka Piperi note'i lühikokkuvõte:
Piper cuts their FY08 and FY09 ests below consensus, lowering their tgt to $44 from $67. Having received the last week of March retail sales data from Sportscan, and recognizing that retail traffic remains severely depressed, they want to better align current end-market conditions with expected wholesale shipments. They assume retailers reduced order flow during March as transaction counts fell short of plan, temps were abnormally cool, and consumer spending patterns continued to wane. Simply put, if they assume that mid-March and month-end deliveries to U.S. retailers were cut back by roughly 40%, wholesale sales of Crocs branded footwear would fall approximately 5-10% short of initial plan.
Piper cuts their FY08 and FY09 ests below consensus, lowering their tgt to $44 from $67. Having received the last week of March retail sales data from Sportscan, and recognizing that retail traffic remains severely depressed, they want to better align current end-market conditions with expected wholesale shipments. They assume retailers reduced order flow during March as transaction counts fell short of plan, temps were abnormally cool, and consumer spending patterns continued to wane. Simply put, if they assume that mid-March and month-end deliveries to U.S. retailers were cut back by roughly 40%, wholesale sales of Crocs branded footwear would fall approximately 5-10% short of initial plan.
kuidas sellise call'i peale peaks reageerima ?
severely depressed retail traffic and new target has 100%+ upside
this stock is way oversold
severely depressed retail traffic and new target has 100%+ upside
this stock is way oversold
CROX Crocs lowers Q1 EPS and rev guidance below consensus; issues downside Q2 and FY08 EPS and rev guidance (17.79 -0.16)
Co issues downside guidance for Q1 (Mar), sees EPS of $0.08-0.13, ex restructuring charge, vs. $0.45 First Call consensus, below previous guidance of $0.46; sees Q1 (Mar) revs of $195-200 mln vs. $223.30 mln consensus, below previous guidance of $225 mln. Co issues downside guidance for Q2 (Jun), sees EPS of $0.45-0.50, ex charge, vs. $0.79 consensus; sees Q2 (Jun) revs growth of 10-15% YoY which equates to $246.7-257.9 mln vs. $321.20 mln consensus. Co issues downside guidance for FY08 (Dec), sees EPS of $1.70-1.80, ex charge, vs. $2.63 consensus; sees FY08 (Dec) revs growth of 15-20% YoY which equates to of $974.5 mln-1.020 bln vs. $1.15 bln consensus. In addition, the Board of Directors approved an authorization to repurchase up to an additional 5 mln shares of its common stock, effective following the earnings announcement currently expected on or about May 7, 2008. "The retail environment in the U.S. has become increasingly challenging as consumer spending and traffic levels have slowed. Despite general weakness across the industry we continue to witness solid sell-through of our Crocs branded footwear and still expect domestic sales to still grow roughly 13% during the quarter. However, retailers in general are planning more cautiously, and therefore, we did not experience the level of at once business we originally expected. In addition, because of our current expense structure, a shortfall in sales versus our expectations disproportionately impacts our earnings results... The co will host a conference call to discuss its revised outlook tomorrow, April 15, 2008 at 8:00 am ET.
Siit on oodata ka ridamisi downgrade
Co issues downside guidance for Q1 (Mar), sees EPS of $0.08-0.13, ex restructuring charge, vs. $0.45 First Call consensus, below previous guidance of $0.46; sees Q1 (Mar) revs of $195-200 mln vs. $223.30 mln consensus, below previous guidance of $225 mln. Co issues downside guidance for Q2 (Jun), sees EPS of $0.45-0.50, ex charge, vs. $0.79 consensus; sees Q2 (Jun) revs growth of 10-15% YoY which equates to $246.7-257.9 mln vs. $321.20 mln consensus. Co issues downside guidance for FY08 (Dec), sees EPS of $1.70-1.80, ex charge, vs. $2.63 consensus; sees FY08 (Dec) revs growth of 15-20% YoY which equates to of $974.5 mln-1.020 bln vs. $1.15 bln consensus. In addition, the Board of Directors approved an authorization to repurchase up to an additional 5 mln shares of its common stock, effective following the earnings announcement currently expected on or about May 7, 2008. "The retail environment in the U.S. has become increasingly challenging as consumer spending and traffic levels have slowed. Despite general weakness across the industry we continue to witness solid sell-through of our Crocs branded footwear and still expect domestic sales to still grow roughly 13% during the quarter. However, retailers in general are planning more cautiously, and therefore, we did not experience the level of at once business we originally expected. In addition, because of our current expense structure, a shortfall in sales versus our expectations disproportionately impacts our earnings results... The co will host a conference call to discuss its revised outlook tomorrow, April 15, 2008 at 8:00 am ET.
Siit on oodata ka ridamisi downgrade
läks järelturul kinni
vaja natuke järele mõelda
2 kuuga on pilt väga järsult muutunud
ei usu, et talle lähiajal armu antakse
ma arvan, et värsked analüütikute targetid tulevad 20 või alla ning ratingud muutuvad väga ettevaatikuks
vaja natuke järele mõelda
2 kuuga on pilt väga järsult muutunud
ei usu, et talle lähiajal armu antakse
ma arvan, et värsked analüütikute targetid tulevad 20 või alla ning ratingud muutuvad väga ettevaatikuks
Karuturul pikaks minemine on nagu vastu tuult kusemine. Ca 90 protsenti aktsiaid on teinud juba 3-4 kvartalit järjest uusi põhju ja ma ole veendunud, et teevad seda ka järgmiste kvartalite jooksul. Seega, tõenäosus eduks on palju suurem, kui viia fookus lühikeseks müügile. Kui lühikeseks müük ei sobi investeerimisfilosoofiaga, siis parem turust eemale hoida.
ai-vai kurjam, no muidugi, jäi täitsa kahe silma vahele et sa Speedy selles teemas siin ka crox-i promosid, muidu oleks kinnisilmi ära teinud selle mida VCGH-ga lubasin aga teha ei saanud... ;)
Sorry, Speedy, ei suutnud vastu panna :D
Ära pane pahaks, luban et rohkem ei töga ;)
Sorry, Speedy, ei suutnud vastu panna :D
Ära pane pahaks, luban et rohkem ei töga ;)
kas tõesti on tehtud juba 3-4 KVARTALIT järjest uusi põhju ?Suund alla võeti nagu 2008 alles ju.
WN,
ma lootsin, et sul vähemalt õnnestus ;)
ma lootsin, et sul vähemalt õnnestus ;)
CROX osutus esialge üsna nahaalseks value trapiks. Kas retail dumpi stardipauk? Niigi kaua see retail doominokivi püsti püsinud. Samas crocs ei seisa sugugi mitte savijalgadel, juhtkond on usaldusväärne ja juba selle suve jooksul peaksid tekkima katalüsaatoreid märgatavaks ülespoole liikumisest.
lfc, nagu graafikult näha, siis 2007. aasta suvel toimus turu tervise järsk halvenemine. Kuigi S&P tegi oktoobris kõrgema tipu võttis sellest aktsioonist osa oluliselt vähem aktsiaid, kui eelmiste tippude juures. Minu jaoks oli see märk, et pullituru talad on pehkinud ja on vaid aja küsimus, millal turg hakkab põhjadest läbi vajuma. Kaua ei tulnud oodata. Tõenäoliselt teises kvartalis näeme sama võimsat kukkumist nagu jaanuaris, erinevate turu tervise näitajate põhjal saab sellise järelduse teha.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPXA200R...
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPXA200R...
CROX Crocs misses by $0.01, reports revs in-line; reaffirms Q2 revs guidance; reaffirms FY08 revs guidance
Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $0.09 per share, $0.01 worse than the First Call consensus of $0.10; revenues rose 39.8% year/year to $198.5 mln vs the $196.7 mln consensus. Co reaffirms guidance for Q2, sees EPS of $0.45-0.50, may not be comparable to $0.43 consensus; sees Q2 revs of $246.7-257.9 mln vs. $252.19 mln consensus. Co reaffirms guidance for FY08, sees EPS of $1.70-1.80, may not be comparable to $1.60 consensus; sees FY08 revs of $974.5-1020.0 mln vs. $1 bln consensus.
võtsin järelturul natuke taas ligi,
ma arvan, et shordid tahaks siit katma hakata
Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $0.09 per share, $0.01 worse than the First Call consensus of $0.10; revenues rose 39.8% year/year to $198.5 mln vs the $196.7 mln consensus. Co reaffirms guidance for Q2, sees EPS of $0.45-0.50, may not be comparable to $0.43 consensus; sees Q2 revs of $246.7-257.9 mln vs. $252.19 mln consensus. Co reaffirms guidance for FY08, sees EPS of $1.70-1.80, may not be comparable to $1.60 consensus; sees FY08 revs of $974.5-1020.0 mln vs. $1 bln consensus.
võtsin järelturul natuke taas ligi,
ma arvan, et shordid tahaks siit katma hakata
mul ka 10.55-ga võetud poss olemas, mõtekas vist täna sulgeda?
siit võiks ka edasi hoida
peale sellist laksu ollakse quidance andmisel selgelt konservatiivne
lisaks tõmbas juhtkonna varavastele - operatsiooni efektiivsus on teravas fookuses.
müüki kasvatati nii koduturul kui ka välisturgudel, vastavalt 12% ja 79% - tänase seisuga on seega välisturgude müügi osakaal suurem kui kodus
peale sellist laksu ollakse quidance andmisel selgelt konservatiivne
lisaks tõmbas juhtkonna varavastele - operatsiooni efektiivsus on teravas fookuses.
müüki kasvatati nii koduturul kui ka välisturgudel, vastavalt 12% ja 79% - tänase seisuga on seega välisturgude müügi osakaal suurem kui kodus
Crocsi hiinlased võitsid kohtus 56m teistelt hiinlastelt kes valekrokse tegid
Ja siiski, Crocs haiseb
Ja siiski, Crocs haiseb
Kõik Crocside kasutajad, beware :)
The toes of Crocs (CROX) wearers can get caught on escalators and the company is attaching a tag warning to its customers. All of their shoes will carry the tags for the 2009 spring line. A number of multimillion-dollar suits have been filed against the company. Link.
15.04. kirjutas keegi:
Tõenäoliselt teises kvartalis näeme sama võimsat kukkumist nagu jaanuaris, erinevate turu tervise näitajate põhjal saab sellise järelduse teha.
ja pani lingi:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPXA200R&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p77730222286
küll see ennustamine ikka on tänamatu töö!
Tõenäoliselt teises kvartalis näeme sama võimsat kukkumist nagu jaanuaris, erinevate turu tervise näitajate põhjal saab sellise järelduse teha.
ja pani lingi:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPXA200R&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p77730222286
küll see ennustamine ikka on tänamatu töö!