See teema on ikka ja alati täiesti vaikne kuigi aasta parimad teenimisvõimalused siiamaani just sellest sektorist. Täiesti uskumatu! Parastada ja kiruda kinnisvaratüüpe viitsitakse, aga rääkida sellest, kuidas ka reaalselt raha teha palju ei viitsita. Raud, nisu, mais, süsi, kuld löövad uusi nominaalseid tippe, paljud metallid oluliselt aasta alguse tasemetest üleval kui nimetada mõnda, mida ise poole kuni mõlema silmaga jälginud olen. Ka paljud nende tootjad on vägagi korralikult käitunud.
Igatahes, süsi. Olen veidi fundamentaale siin mõne aja jooksul uurinud ja midagi liiga rõõmustavat siin silma jäänud ei ole. Infrastruktuuriprobleemid Austraalias, LAVis, Hiinas ja vähem või rohkem kõikjal mujal, ökokollid, tõusvad kaevanduskulud, kallid transpordikulud, tõusvad royalty'd, raskem lube saada, arenevate maade soov eksporti piirata enda tulevaste vajaduste tarbeks, ainult mõned kiirel mõlgutamisel meelde tulevad pakkumist mõjutavad probleemid. Teiselt poolt arenevate riikide vajadus mitte ainult elektrienergia tootmist tõsta (võib kolm korda arvata, kas hiljutised sündmused hiinas tõstavad nõudlust või ei). Ja kas nad teevad asja ära söega või hakkavad üles ehitama mingisugust rohemaheenergiamonstrumit... hmmm... vist mitte. Lihtne oleks öelda, et momentumraha läheb järjekordset saaki otsima, aga see on juba liiga deja vu all over again. 2005-6 metallid, nafta terve kümnend, toiduained viimastel aastatel... Liiga palju olen seda juttu kuulnud.
Ise kaldun pigem arvama, et aasta-kahe jooksul võtab EE OEG-lt vägagi pika puuga kohaliku vihatuima ettevõtte tiitli ja Lippmaa soovitus, et põlevkivi Eesti nokiaks (kuigi ta seda on kogu aeg olnud), ei tundu mõtlevatele inimestele Eesti seisukohast nii kiviaega jääva mõttena enam.
Commodityte prohvet ja jumal Jim "Chuck Norris" Rogers: pulliturg pole veel kaugeltki läbi, möönab korrektsiooni võimalust
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/1284/Jim-Rogers:-Commodities-Picks-and-Pans;_ylt=AvJ43yCPFTZVxqL7Nxl4vmtk7ot4?tickers=
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/1284/Jim-Rogers:-Commodities-Picks-and-Pans;_ylt=AvJ43yCPFTZVxqL7Nxl4vmtk7ot4?tickers=
LONDON, March 4 (Reuters) - Europe's wealthiest families are planning to shift their investments further away from traditional assets into alternatives such as hedge funds and commodities, a report showed on Tuesday.
Family offices are professional investment groups set up around the private wealth of rich individuals and their families.
The survey looked at 30 of them in 10 European countries, around 39 percent of whom managed more than 1 billion euros ($1.52 billion) in assets
...
Exposure to commodities, meanwhile, was seen quadrupling , albeit to just 4 percent of a portfolio from today's 1 percent.
veidi hämmastav, et "professionaalsed investeerimisgrupid" on alles täna commodity osakaalu suurendamas 4 korda
Family offices are professional investment groups set up around the private wealth of rich individuals and their families.
The survey looked at 30 of them in 10 European countries, around 39 percent of whom managed more than 1 billion euros ($1.52 billion) in assets
...
Exposure to commodities, meanwhile, was seen quadrupling , albeit to just 4 percent of a portfolio from today's 1 percent.
veidi hämmastav, et "professionaalsed investeerimisgrupid" on alles täna commodity osakaalu suurendamas 4 korda
paradigma on vist muutumas, kui 29. aastal oli müügisignaaliks see, kui kingapuhastaja jagas aktsiasoovitusi, siis nüüd tuleb vist väljuda kui profid sisenema hakkavad. Rikkad jäävad vaesemaks ja vaesed saavad rikkamaks:) (ehk siis jätkub ajaloo seaduspära erinevalt paljulevinud otse vastupidisest väärarusaamast) :)
värvilistelt metallidelt ei oodanud isegi minusugune märatsev pull sellist esitust, põllumajandussaadused võivad tugevalt mõlemale poole üllatada, kas siis energia peaks päästma päeva? See võib ka teha mida iganes heaks arvab. Väärismetallid üksinda küll kogu hunnikut üles ei vea...
värvilistelt metallidelt ei oodanud isegi minusugune märatsev pull sellist esitust, põllumajandussaadused võivad tugevalt mõlemale poole üllatada, kas siis energia peaks päästma päeva? See võib ka teha mida iganes heaks arvab. Väärismetallid üksinda küll kogu hunnikut üles ei vea...
üleeilne artikkel minesite.com'ist. Toorainete Chuck Norris:
Jim Rogers Predicts That Commodities Prices Across The Board Will Go Through The Roof In The Next Twenty Years
By Charles Wyatt
Jim Rogers, who was guest speaker at our Christmas 2006 Forum, is a man not afraid of calling a spade a bloody shovel. He is also one of those rare Americans who has journeyed extensively outside of his own country and learned from what he has seen. As if to emphasise this propensity for travel he was in Tokyo last week where he gave a talk to 750 fund managers. The main gist of this talk was that America is ‘completely out of control’, that there will be a 20 year bull market in commodities, and that prices will be in turmoil.
His views seem to have hardened since he spoke to us 14 months ago, and in quite significant ways. At that time he was a little milder on America, though he recommended that the dollar should be sold. But that was before sub-prime ripped through the financial system. In Tokyo, however, he said he said that global competition for resources may end in armed conflict. This statement is clearly aimed at food as no politicians are going to allow people to go hungry if they can help it and it’s countries such as China, India and Russia, with huge populations, that are most at risk.
One defence for Russia, which may cause further instability elsewhere, is its ability to manipulate the European gas market to force access to the breadbasket to its south west. South Africa is already some way down the track to civilian unrest as a result of the highly publicised power problems there, which may take at least ten years to resolve. If mines and furnaces have to shut down, huge numbers of workers will be on the streets and things will get tough.
In specific terms Jim Rogers told delegates to the CLSA investment forum that the prices of all agricultural products would ‘explode’ in coming years and that the price of gold, which hit an all-time high of US$980 an ounce this week, will continue its surge to as much as US$3,500 an ounce. In support of his opinion analyst Christopher Wood told fund managers that this was because “gold is the exact opposite of a structured finance product”. Fair point.
In a blistering attack on US monetary policy and the “helicopter cash drop” responses of the Federal Reserve, Jim Rogers described the American dollar as a “terribly flawed currency”. He said that the plan by Ben Bernanke, the Fed Chairman, to “crank up the money-printing machines and run them until we run out of trees” had exposed America’s weakest point to her rivals and enemies. The dollar may have declined recently, he added, “but you ain’t seen nothing yet”.
Talking to a room almost exclusively populated with Japan-focused equity investors, Jim Rogers recommended an immediate language course in Mandarin and a switch into commodities: “the second-biggest market in the world behind foreign exchange”. Those who attended our Christmas Forum will recognise some of this advice as he said at that time that he had engaged a Chinese nurse to teach his daughter Mandarin.
He went on to tell the CLSA delegates that that historic drains on wheat, corn and other soft commodity inventories have created market dynamics that could lead to severe food shortages. The outlook over the next two decades is that the prices of everything from cotton and sugar to lead and nickel will be “going through the roof”.
Heavily playing down the prospects of a big recovery in Japan, Mr Rogers said that that country’s demographics “as the fastest-ageing country in the world” would cause it greater problems and an ever-diminishing quality of life for ordinary Japanese. Not, perhaps, the most tactful observation, but he went on to say that other countries including Britain, Italy, China and the US should take note of what their own demographics would look like if the effect of immigration was stripped out. On a final, and controversial, note Jim Rogers suggested that Japan will be the perfect laboratory for the world to watch how a demographic crisis plays out.
Jim Rogers Predicts That Commodities Prices Across The Board Will Go Through The Roof In The Next Twenty Years
By Charles Wyatt
Jim Rogers, who was guest speaker at our Christmas 2006 Forum, is a man not afraid of calling a spade a bloody shovel. He is also one of those rare Americans who has journeyed extensively outside of his own country and learned from what he has seen. As if to emphasise this propensity for travel he was in Tokyo last week where he gave a talk to 750 fund managers. The main gist of this talk was that America is ‘completely out of control’, that there will be a 20 year bull market in commodities, and that prices will be in turmoil.
His views seem to have hardened since he spoke to us 14 months ago, and in quite significant ways. At that time he was a little milder on America, though he recommended that the dollar should be sold. But that was before sub-prime ripped through the financial system. In Tokyo, however, he said he said that global competition for resources may end in armed conflict. This statement is clearly aimed at food as no politicians are going to allow people to go hungry if they can help it and it’s countries such as China, India and Russia, with huge populations, that are most at risk.
One defence for Russia, which may cause further instability elsewhere, is its ability to manipulate the European gas market to force access to the breadbasket to its south west. South Africa is already some way down the track to civilian unrest as a result of the highly publicised power problems there, which may take at least ten years to resolve. If mines and furnaces have to shut down, huge numbers of workers will be on the streets and things will get tough.
In specific terms Jim Rogers told delegates to the CLSA investment forum that the prices of all agricultural products would ‘explode’ in coming years and that the price of gold, which hit an all-time high of US$980 an ounce this week, will continue its surge to as much as US$3,500 an ounce. In support of his opinion analyst Christopher Wood told fund managers that this was because “gold is the exact opposite of a structured finance product”. Fair point.
In a blistering attack on US monetary policy and the “helicopter cash drop” responses of the Federal Reserve, Jim Rogers described the American dollar as a “terribly flawed currency”. He said that the plan by Ben Bernanke, the Fed Chairman, to “crank up the money-printing machines and run them until we run out of trees” had exposed America’s weakest point to her rivals and enemies. The dollar may have declined recently, he added, “but you ain’t seen nothing yet”.
Talking to a room almost exclusively populated with Japan-focused equity investors, Jim Rogers recommended an immediate language course in Mandarin and a switch into commodities: “the second-biggest market in the world behind foreign exchange”. Those who attended our Christmas Forum will recognise some of this advice as he said at that time that he had engaged a Chinese nurse to teach his daughter Mandarin.
He went on to tell the CLSA delegates that that historic drains on wheat, corn and other soft commodity inventories have created market dynamics that could lead to severe food shortages. The outlook over the next two decades is that the prices of everything from cotton and sugar to lead and nickel will be “going through the roof”.
Heavily playing down the prospects of a big recovery in Japan, Mr Rogers said that that country’s demographics “as the fastest-ageing country in the world” would cause it greater problems and an ever-diminishing quality of life for ordinary Japanese. Not, perhaps, the most tactful observation, but he went on to say that other countries including Britain, Italy, China and the US should take note of what their own demographics would look like if the effect of immigration was stripped out. On a final, and controversial, note Jim Rogers suggested that Japan will be the perfect laboratory for the world to watch how a demographic crisis plays out.
Investors Plan to Buy More Commodities, Barclays Says (Update2)
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601082&sid=aPuw8STNCldg&refer=canada
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601082&sid=aPuw8STNCldg&refer=canada
LONDON, March 13 (Reuters) - Investment bankers often aspire to be gentlemen farmers, but now farming could soon become their day job.
Soaring agricultural prices, growing demand for biofuels and the growth of the Chinese and Indian economies are leading top global investment banks to buy farmland in a bid to embrace the physical commodities market.
Investment banks and hedge funds are mopping up vast tracts of agricultural land around the world, hoping to ride the so-called "commodities supercycle" that has lifted prices of everyday agricultural commodities such as wheat, rice, soybeans and corn to record highs.
U.S. investment bank Morgan Stanley has bought several thousand hectares of land in Ukraine, Europe's grain basin.
Morgan Stanley declined to comment, but industry executives say many other big banks are looking at land.
Barclays Capital, the investment bank arm of UK bank Barclays Plc, is actively searching.
"We are looking at a lot of opportunities in those sort of things. We are looking across the board. We certainly wouldn't rule it out," said Roger Jones, co-head of commodities at Barclays Capital.
BACK TO THE LAND
Banks are not the only ones going back to the land.
Fund manager BlackRock has a hedge fund that invests in agricultural land. International estate agents Knight Frank is setting up one to buy agricultural land in the UK.
Industry experts say hedge funds have bought thousands of hectares of corn and sugarcane plantations in the United States and Brazil, illustrating how even purely financial players are moving beyond paper markets into real assets.
"Farming is going to be one of the best places to make money in the next 10 years if you know what you are doing," investor and commodities guru Jim Rogers told Reuters in an interview earlier this month.
Soaring agricultural prices, growing demand for biofuels and the growth of the Chinese and Indian economies are leading top global investment banks to buy farmland in a bid to embrace the physical commodities market.
Investment banks and hedge funds are mopping up vast tracts of agricultural land around the world, hoping to ride the so-called "commodities supercycle" that has lifted prices of everyday agricultural commodities such as wheat, rice, soybeans and corn to record highs.
U.S. investment bank Morgan Stanley has bought several thousand hectares of land in Ukraine, Europe's grain basin.
Morgan Stanley declined to comment, but industry executives say many other big banks are looking at land.
Barclays Capital, the investment bank arm of UK bank Barclays Plc, is actively searching.
"We are looking at a lot of opportunities in those sort of things. We are looking across the board. We certainly wouldn't rule it out," said Roger Jones, co-head of commodities at Barclays Capital.
BACK TO THE LAND
Banks are not the only ones going back to the land.
Fund manager BlackRock has a hedge fund that invests in agricultural land. International estate agents Knight Frank is setting up one to buy agricultural land in the UK.
Industry experts say hedge funds have bought thousands of hectares of corn and sugarcane plantations in the United States and Brazil, illustrating how even purely financial players are moving beyond paper markets into real assets.
"Farming is going to be one of the best places to make money in the next 10 years if you know what you are doing," investor and commodities guru Jim Rogers told Reuters in an interview earlier this month.
"In a just published note Lehman Brothers still expects a correction in the prices of several commodities, notably crude oil, but that investors' recent focus on longer-term bullish structural factors, many of which it agrees with, make it difficult to call for anything other than a pause in oil's rise. As the summer arrives, tighter seasonal short-term fundamentals could push up oil prices once again."
http://www.moneyextra.com/news/news-commodities-boom-038305.html
http://www.moneyextra.com/news/news-commodities-boom-038305.html
hea uudis tooraine (hinna) sõpradele:
BHUBANESWAR, India, March 17 (Reuters) - An ancient Indian tribe opposed to an alumina refinery by Britain's Vedanta Resources has sacrificed dozens of chickens and goats in the hope their gods will prevent the firm's mining plans.
Vedanta wants to dig open-cast mines in the Niyamgiri hills in Orissa state to feed an alumina refinery it has already built in the area. It is spending $800 million on the project.
BHUBANESWAR, India, March 17 (Reuters) - An ancient Indian tribe opposed to an alumina refinery by Britain's Vedanta Resources has sacrificed dozens of chickens and goats in the hope their gods will prevent the firm's mining plans.
Vedanta
buy AA? :)
madis, kuidas nafta elab :) Tunned tukivingu!
võib olla ma eksin, aga langus naftafutuurides käib justkui alljärgneval põhjusel ... liiga palju pabernafta fänne on positsiooni omamas ja varsti on see aeg kui lahtiste positsioonide omanikel tuleb oma tsistern ette ajada
Last Trading Day
Trading terminates at the close of business on the third business day prior to the 25th calendar day of the month preceding the delivery month. If the 25th calendar day of the month is a non-business day, trading shall cease on the third business day prior to the business day preceding the 25th calendar day.
Last Trading Day
Trading terminates at the close of business on the third business day prior to the 25th calendar day of the month preceding the delivery month. If the 25th calendar day of the month is a non-business day, trading shall cease on the third business day prior to the business day preceding the 25th calendar day.
tiny, on pikaajalisem nägemus, mind paaripäevased liikumised niiväga ei kõiguta. Commodityte puhul on sellised paugud täiesti tavalised ja ma olen nendega ära harjunud. Tänan küsimast. Ma olen sellel alal juba mõnda aega tegutsenud ja siiamaani on mul küllaltki paljudel juhtudel õigus olnud. Ja tukivingust ei ole siin haisugi, küll on spekulatiivsemate käte kilamist.
Muide, kui tahad mulle oponeerida, siis ma tegin ühe päevateema all pakkumise, et aastaks 2015 on nafta käinud üle 186 dollari ja olen nõus kihla vedama kümne barreli nafta peale. Saan ma õigesti aru, et sa oled käpp? Pakkumine kehtib muidugi ka teistele, kui tiny ei peaks nõus olema.
Muide, kui tahad mulle oponeerida, siis ma tegin ühe päevateema all pakkumise, et aastaks 2015 on nafta käinud üle 186 dollari ja olen nõus kihla vedama kümne barreli nafta peale. Saan ma õigesti aru, et sa oled käpp? Pakkumine kehtib muidugi ka teistele, kui tiny ei peaks nõus olema.
Commodities bust? Don't count on it
http://www.earthtimes.org/articles/show/193767,commodities-bust-dont-count-on-it.html
http://www.earthtimes.org/articles/show/193767,commodities-bust-dont-count-on-it.html
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/03/commodities-big-fall-is-coming.html
A big factor in the outlook for commodities is whether you believe our credit crisis will lead to inflation or deflation. Bernanke's aggressive rate cuts and the dollar's swift fall made commodities look like a great haven. But with the failure of the Fed's moves to revive lending, the high odds of a deep recession that pulls down emerging economies, and worries about the financial system leading to liquidity hoarding, the prospects for commodities are far from compelling.
http://benbittrolff.blogspot.com/2008/03/massive-de-leveraging-slams-commodities.html
Margin requirements have been raised at most of the major exchanges over the last couple of days. More importantly, margin requirements on CFD’s (Contract For Difference) have been raised DRASTICALLY. CFD’s are the weapon of choice for commodity investors. That is literally sucking the life right out of the usual suspects: Oil, and Gold. All other commodities, especially those that have gone parabolic, metals and softs, are getting the same treatment. This is MASSIVE de-leveraging at its best.
A simultaneous bounce in the US dollar isn’t helping any either. The US Dollar is bouncing from deeply oversold territory after a steep steady decline. A protracted bounce WILL SMASH commodities. A protracted bounce is quite plausible as the weakness in the Euro area economies becomes more obvious.
http://benbittrolff.blogspot.com/2008/03/parabolic-commodities-end-is-in-sight.html
---
Kulla hind tegi sel nädalal läbi suurima kukkumise viimase 25 aasta jooksul.
CRB indeks tegi oma ajaloo (indeks sündis 1956. aastal) suurima kukkumise.
Madis, millega põhjendad nii teravat reaktsiooni? Tehniliselt, st turu psühholoogiale teeb selline asi suurt kahju. Kas arvad, et turg suudab selle unustada? Mis saab hedge-fondidest, keda pangad sunnivad võimendust vähendama?
Ma olen ennustanud, et dollar rallib esimesel poolaastal +20%, kas toorained peavad sellele vastu?
A big factor in the outlook for commodities is whether you believe our credit crisis will lead to inflation or deflation. Bernanke's aggressive rate cuts and the dollar's swift fall made commodities look like a great haven. But with the failure of the Fed's moves to revive lending, the high odds of a deep recession that pulls down emerging economies, and worries about the financial system leading to liquidity hoarding, the prospects for commodities are far from compelling.
http://benbittrolff.blogspot.com/2008/03/massive-de-leveraging-slams-commodities.html
Margin requirements have been raised at most of the major exchanges over the last couple of days. More importantly, margin requirements on CFD’s (Contract For Difference) have been raised DRASTICALLY. CFD’s are the weapon of choice for commodity investors. That is literally sucking the life right out of the usual suspects: Oil, and Gold. All other commodities, especially those that have gone parabolic, metals and softs, are getting the same treatment. This is MASSIVE de-leveraging at its best.
A simultaneous bounce in the US dollar isn’t helping any either. The US Dollar is bouncing from deeply oversold territory after a steep steady decline. A protracted bounce WILL SMASH commodities. A protracted bounce is quite plausible as the weakness in the Euro area economies becomes more obvious.
http://benbittrolff.blogspot.com/2008/03/parabolic-commodities-end-is-in-sight.html
---
Kulla hind tegi sel nädalal läbi suurima kukkumise viimase 25 aasta jooksul.
CRB indeks tegi oma ajaloo (indeks sündis 1956. aastal) suurima kukkumise.
Madis, millega põhjendad nii teravat reaktsiooni? Tehniliselt, st turu psühholoogiale teeb selline asi suurt kahju. Kas arvad, et turg suudab selle unustada? Mis saab hedge-fondidest, keda pangad sunnivad võimendust vähendama?
Ma olen ennustanud, et dollar rallib esimesel poolaastal +20%, kas toorained peavad sellele vastu?
ma ei näe küll teravat reaktsiooni, 7-8-9% nädala jooksul ei ole commodityte puhul terav reaktsioon, see on küllaltki tavaline reaktsioon. Ühtegi vanemat kala see küll ei hirmuta, nikli ja tsingi 50% langus on ära olnud, mis on -7% selle kõrval? Ja see ununeb nii kiiresti kui paanika mööda läheb (kuigi see võib kesta veel kuni kaks nädalat ja kullal näiteks oleks allapoole ruumi kusagile 850 kanti) ja inimestele meelde tuleb selline sõna nagu fundamentaalnäitajad. Lasen selle kulunud tõe siis veelkord üle: USA on perifeeria kõigi toorainete peale nafta puhul, aga sellel on supply'ga piisavalt probleeme, et suuremat allapoole liikumist vältida. Näiteks vase puhul USA kasutus kümnendi alguse 3 miljonilt tonnilt oli eelmiseks aastaks vähenenud 2,1 miljoni tonnini, aga guess what? vase hind tõusis, ja korralikult. Kõik sõltub arenevatest riikidest nüüd, kuigi väljavaated ei ole nende jaoks kindlasti paranenud, ei ole ka midagi liiga tõsist veel näha ja kui probleemidest peaks aasta-kahega välja tulema, siis oleks juba päris kõrgeid tooraine hindu vaja.
Kui ka dollar peaks rallima, mida liiga tõsiselt praegu siiski võtta ei saa, siis on võimalus, et eurotsooni raha hakkab otsima toetust toorainetest, millel siiamaani selleks eriti põhjust ei ole olnud. Kindlasti on võimalik ka ulatuslikum korrektsioon toorainetes, aga mitte ükski asi ei lähe otsejoones üles. Ja siin on kõige paremad väljavaated leida kasvu üldse, mingi hetk tuleb raha tagasi. Enamasti need, kes räägivad toorainete kräshist räägivad ka sellist juttu, et toorainete fundamentaalnäitajaid ei ole mõtet vaadata, (probleemid USAs), graafik meenutab kahtlaselt mulli = suur-suur langus kohe-kohe-kohe. Samas kui igale investorile peaks olema selge kui absurdne selline seisuoht on.
Kui ka dollar peaks rallima, mida liiga tõsiselt praegu siiski võtta ei saa, siis on võimalus, et eurotsooni raha hakkab otsima toetust toorainetest, millel siiamaani selleks eriti põhjust ei ole olnud. Kindlasti on võimalik ka ulatuslikum korrektsioon toorainetes, aga mitte ükski asi ei lähe otsejoones üles. Ja siin on kõige paremad väljavaated leida kasvu üldse, mingi hetk tuleb raha tagasi. Enamasti need, kes räägivad toorainete kräshist räägivad ka sellist juttu, et toorainete fundamentaalnäitajaid ei ole mõtet vaadata, (probleemid USAs), graafik meenutab kahtlaselt mulli = suur-suur langus kohe-kohe-kohe. Samas kui igale investorile peaks olema selge kui absurdne selline seisuoht on.
The case for crumbling commodities - Citi
Citigroup says that powerful performance in commodities over the last couple of years raises the plausibility that aggressive assumptions have further driven up prices that appear to be on the verge of correcting meaningfully; moreover, industries such as related resource extraction equipment and engineering services also face downward revaluation potential. Firm says that while investors may be focused on the headlines regarding specific commodity prices such as copper, gold, or oil, the risk spills out to agricultural, mining machinery, and energy equipment & services, along with seed stocks, fertilizer makers and alternative energy investments. Firm thinks the notion of unwinding "crowded trades" could make the decline sharper than probably is justified.
Citigroup says that powerful performance in commodities over the last couple of years raises the plausibility that aggressive assumptions have further driven up prices that appear to be on the verge of correcting meaningfully; moreover, industries such as related resource extraction equipment and engineering services also face downward revaluation potential. Firm says that while investors may be focused on the headlines regarding specific commodity prices such as copper, gold, or oil, the risk spills out to agricultural, mining machinery, and energy equipment & services, along with seed stocks, fertilizer makers and alternative energy investments. Firm thinks the notion of unwinding "crowded trades" could make the decline sharper than probably is justified.
Red Kite Rebound in Death Spiral Becomes Born-Again Experience
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=a8jtLSxIdqK4&refer=home
Commodity prices part speculative - IMF
"The IMF said that the constellation of dollar depreciation and falling short-term real interest rates “has pushed up commodity prices through a number of channels, including by enhancing the attractiveness of commodities as an alternative asset.”
“Overall, these financial factors seem to explain a large part of the increase in crude oil prices so far in 2008, as well as the rising prices of other commodities,” it said.
It added that as global economic growth is widely expected to decline this year and in 2009, “prices of most commodities should eventually start easing.” However, it added that “unless there is a substantial global downturn, however, the extent of easing may be small, given the current tight balances in some commodity markets.”"
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=a8jtLSxIdqK4&refer=home
Commodity prices part speculative - IMF
"The IMF said that the constellation of dollar depreciation and falling short-term real interest rates “has pushed up commodity prices through a number of channels, including by enhancing the attractiveness of commodities as an alternative asset.”
“Overall, these financial factors seem to explain a large part of the increase in crude oil prices so far in 2008, as well as the rising prices of other commodities,” it said.
It added that as global economic growth is widely expected to decline this year and in 2009, “prices of most commodities should eventually start easing.” However, it added that “unless there is a substantial global downturn, however, the extent of easing may be small, given the current tight balances in some commodity markets.”"
Neile tüüpidele, kes viitavad indeksites suurele pikkade posside arvule kui ainsale põhjendusele, mis toorainete hindu üles on viinud, üks küssa. Kuidas te seletate söe ja rauamaagi hinnatõusu? Need käivad põhiliselt pikaajaliste lepingutega + midagi ka spot marketilt käib läbi. Selleks, et siin pikki posse võtta saaks, peaks seda kraami füüsiliselt varuma, aga, et mingitki tunnetatavat mõju sel oleks turule peaks varuma koguseid, mille liigutamiseks on vaja tervet armeed ja ladustamiseks kümnete kui mitte sadade staadionite suuruseid alasid, selleks et saada tonni pealt paarkümmend doltsi vahelt. Ei tundu nagu vaeva väärt... Ometi on need viimase ülesjooksu aegu rallinud sama palju või rohkemgi kui indeksites olevad toorained.
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Danske Banki commodity analüüs
http://mediaserver.fxstreet.com/Reports/17508a77-41d8-4872-90de-1085d28a065a/c8d14808-c1a2-4ce6-a2f4-a24256ad2efb.pdf
http://mediaserver.fxstreet.com/Reports/17508a77-41d8-4872-90de-1085d28a065a/c8d14808-c1a2-4ce6-a2f4-a24256ad2efb.pdf