Mortgage applications fell for a fourth consecutive week; the popular mortgage gauge fell -0.7%, moving to 704.8 from 710.1, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Average 30-year rates declined to 5.69% from 5.74%. The purchases index rose 2.7% to 451.7 last week, the highest since Dec 24. The refinancing index tanked 4.6% to 2176.8.
Dow Jones futuur kukkus 10940 juurest 10870 peale,
S&P500 futuur 1223 pealt 1213 juurde
Rev Shark:
If Rotation Stalls, Ponder This Ugly Scenario
3/9/05 8:28 AM ET
"Commerce is one of the daughters of Fortune, inconsistent and deceitful as her mother. she chooses her residence where she is least expected, and shifts her home when in appearance she seems firmly settled."
-- Ben Jonson
The only thing that seems particularly clear about the market now is that it is struggling to undergo some significant shift in character. The problem we face is trying to figure out exactly how that will manifest itself.
I've been hypothesizing about the possibility of a rotation into technology stocks and out of oils, steels, homebuilders and deep cyclicals. There are a couple problems with this scenario.
First, crude oil needs to cooperate. We need the momentum money in energy stocks to start looking for a new home. We did see some weakening in homebuilders and steel yesterday but we didn't see technology stocks benefit from it, mainly because of the poor news from Texas Instruments (TXN:NYSE).
Texas Instruments illustrates another problem with the rotation-into-technology theory: too many technology stocks have rather lame fundamentals. The valuations are not particularly attractive and it is going to be tough for the group to move if we see more earnings warnings and poor guidance. Buyers need some good reasons to buy the group if momentum is really going to build.
If a rotation into technology does not develop, then what other scenarios are likely? One rather ugly possibility is a continued rise in energy prices that kills the rest of the market, cyclicals and technology alike. The bulls argue that the market hasn't had much problem shrugging off high oil prices so far and it should be able to continue to do that.
If oil prices continue to climb, I believe it will become increasingly difficult to dismiss it as having a negligible impact. High oil will have a cumulative psychological impact that will weigh heavily if it persists. We need to watch carefully to see how responsive the market is to changing crude oil prices. If the recent correlation continues to hold then there is little question about how important this will be in driving the market.
When the market undergoes a change in character it can be quite painful. Such changes don't occur smoothly. They take place in spurts and leave us wondering if they will continue.
We have positive news in the technology sector, which boosted futures early but that seems to be waning as the open approaches. Overseas markets were slightly higher but the dollar is down and oil up slightly.
No positions in stock mentioned
Gary B. Smith:
Gapping Up
RETK +18.7% (ORCL makes $9 bid for co), XLNX +2.4% (upgraded at Smith Barney and Wachovia following guidance), AMEN +11.7%, GLK +8.5% (announces merger with Crompton), HLTH +7% (reports Q4), CMTL +5.7% (beats by $0.15; announces split), BOOM +5% (announces order), MECA +4.3% (Florida slot machine vote), WLDA +4.2% (contract with Air Canada), PACT +4%, AMKR +4% (RBC upgrade).... Under $3: STKR +18.2% (reports Q4), NERX +14.1%, GNSC +12.5% (co and Monsanto team up with USDA to map soybean genome), USEY +12% (discloses merger talks), MAXM +12%, LOUD +10.9% (O2 Germany signs with Nokia for mobile music solution powered by Loudeye), AEGN +7.8% (co and Biota sign flu development agreement), FUEL +5.4% (recent momentum).
Gapping Down
OSTK -4.4% (Q1 EPS lowered below consensus at Piper), CHIR -3.5% (restates 2004 pro-forma EPS; BofA says it's more extensive than estimated), AAPL -2.7% (extension of yesterday's 5.2% drop), ISLE -2.4% (CIBC downgrade), MSO -2.4% (NY Post says large investor is out of the stock), MCD -2% (CSFB downgrade), ORCL -1.6% (makes bid for RETK), VISG -4% (started with an Underperform at First Albany; tgt $3.80), IIG -3.8% (profit taking after 22% move yesterday), FRO -3.7% (extension of recent weakness), MAX -11% (co evaluates proposed reverse/forward split; subsequent deregistration contemplated).
RETK +18.7% (ORCL makes $9 bid for co), XLNX +2.4% (upgraded at Smith Barney and Wachovia following guidance), AMEN +11.7%, GLK +8.5% (announces merger with Crompton), HLTH +7% (reports Q4), CMTL +5.7% (beats by $0.15; announces split), BOOM +5% (announces order), MECA +4.3% (Florida slot machine vote), WLDA +4.2% (contract with Air Canada), PACT +4%, AMKR +4% (RBC upgrade).... Under $3: STKR +18.2% (reports Q4), NERX +14.1%, GNSC +12.5% (co and Monsanto team up with USDA to map soybean genome), USEY +12% (discloses merger talks), MAXM +12%, LOUD +10.9% (O2 Germany signs with Nokia for mobile music solution powered by Loudeye), AEGN +7.8% (co and Biota sign flu development agreement), FUEL +5.4% (recent momentum).
Gapping Down
OSTK -4.4% (Q1 EPS lowered below consensus at Piper), CHIR -3.5% (restates 2004 pro-forma EPS; BofA says it's more extensive than estimated), AAPL -2.7% (extension of yesterday's 5.2% drop), ISLE -2.4% (CIBC downgrade), MSO -2.4% (NY Post says large investor is out of the stock), MCD -2% (CSFB downgrade), ORCL -1.6% (makes bid for RETK), VISG -4% (started with an Underperform at First Albany; tgt $3.80), IIG -3.8% (profit taking after 22% move yesterday), FRO -3.7% (extension of recent weakness), MAX -11% (co evaluates proposed reverse/forward split; subsequent deregistration contemplated).
Täna on turgu rõhumas ebameeldiv kombinatsioon - dollari nõrgenemine ja võlakirjade intressimäärade läbimurre ülespoole. Nõrk dollar toob kaasa impordi kallinemise ja seega inflatsiooni kiirenemise, pikaajaliste võlakirjade intressimäära tõus sellele just viitabki. Silm tuleks peal hoida nafta hinnal, mida mõjutab 17.30 avaldatav USA naftavarude muutuse raport.
Mis kõlakas see vahepeal ebola-viirusest oli? CNBCst kõlises läbi, ei jõudnud kinni püüda...
huvitav kas see uudis et hansapank suurendab hansabankase aktsiakapitali on eelnev parexi ostule!
kus võimaliks nafta hinda jälgida?
Traderis nafta futuur QM, bloomgergi lehel selline link.
Naftafutuur QM tahabki vägisi üle 55 USD ronida, Dow Jonesi futuur YM testib selle peale päeva põhjasid ...
Nafta (QM) käis ka $56 juures ära (kõigi aegade tipp), väga volatiilselt liigub viimasel ajal.
Enamus turuosalisi peab kõrge naftahinna playdeks igasugu naftaaktsiaid. Minu arust on need juba läbinud liiga suure tõusu ja kavalam oleks otsida alternatiive. Mõni nädal tagasi ostsin ZAPZi, mis müüb USAs Smart autosid. Smart autod võtavad väidetavalt 60 miili peale ühe galloni bensiini. 2006.a. peaks turule tulema ka madala kütusekuluga SUV. Usun, et ameeriklased vaatavad üha enam Smart autode järele, kui gallon maksab 3-4$. Praegu maksab gallon 2-2,5$ ja seda peetakse juba kalliks.
Eestis maksab gallon bensiini 3,6 dollarit ja mitu SMART autot näinud oled?
Eurooplased on harjunud kõrge bensiinihinnaga, ameeriklased mitte.
Sveitsis on Smarte üpris palju, teab keegi, palju seal bensiin maksab? ZAPZ on nii väike firma, et piisab ainult mõnekümnest tuhandest müüdud autost aastas, et aktsia mitmekordistuks.
Sveitsis on Smarte üpris palju, teab keegi, palju seal bensiin maksab? ZAPZ on nii väike firma, et piisab ainult mõnekümnest tuhandest müüdud autost aastas, et aktsia mitmekordistuks.
Kusjuures, olen Tallinnas näinud paari Smart autot. Spetsiaalselt Smarte siin ilmselt ei müüa, neid tuleb tellida Mercedeseid müüvatest salongidest.
SMART on DaimlerChryslerile kõvasti kahjumit 1998 aastast teeninud (2,6 miljardit eurot). Grupi majandustulemustele on see küllalt halvasti mõjunud. Uute mudelite (tulevase Ameerika turule suunatud SUV-i) arendamine on kuuldavasti seisma pandud. Väikesed smardid on imo lihtsalt ohtlikud, fourfour on mitsubishi colt, ainult tunduvalt kõrgema hinnaga.
ma ei oska hetkega allikat anda, kuid lugesin paar päeva tagasi kuskilt, et SUVi arenduse seismapanek oli vale kuulujutt. Lisaks on DCX hakanud arendama veel kolmandat Smart versiooni - noortele peredele mõeldud pickup (pidavat kahtlaselt sarnane olema Toyota vastava projektiga).
USAs võrreldakse Smart ForTwod Toyota Priusega, kuid Prius maksab 27 000$ ja Smart 15 000$. Hind selgelt viimase kasuks.
USAs võrreldakse Smart ForTwod Toyota Priusega, kuid Prius maksab 27 000$ ja Smart 15 000$. Hind selgelt viimase kasuks.
Euroopas väikeautode üheks populaarsuse põhjuseks probleemne parkimine, USA-s rahvastiku tihedus väiksem (NYC puhul eelistatakse autole metrood). Aga ega bensiini hinna tõus nüüd SMARDI müügile halvasti ka ei mõju.
Sidekick, oletame, selline olukord: smart fourtwo ja toyota prius, head on collision @ 90 km/h. kummas istuksid, kui peaksid ühe valima?
95E 1.40 CHF (*10 EEK hinnaks umbkaudu). Uudist Smartide tootmise lõpetamise kohta kardetakse siin küll.
Sahtel, loomulikult valiks ma Hummeri (või Coggiola T-Rexi (www.coggiola.com)), millel on kängururauad kere küljes :)