USA turgude eilne võimsa ralli tegi tehniliselt pildi börsidel ilusamaks ja heade kvartalitulemuste ootustes võiks oodata siit lühiajaliselt ostuhuvi jätkumist. Kui viimaste kvartalite puhul on tavaliselt enne tulemusi turg üles ostetud ja tulemuste enda peale on järgnenud müügisurve, siis seekord on viimaste kuude korrektsioon loonud parema võimaluse positiivseks üllatamiseks. Tulemuste hooaeg algab esmaspäeval Alcoa (AA) tulemustega.
Euroopas on täna fookuses Inglise ja Euroopa Keskpanga intressimääraotsused (vastavalt kell 14.00 ka 14.45), mis mõlemad suure tõenäosusega muutust senises poliitikas ei too. Eelmisel nädalal lõppes EKP üheaastase tähtajaga laenuprogramm, mistõttu võidakse EKP pressikonverentsil keskenduda rahapoliitika koordineerija enda reaktsioonile lühema tähtajaga laenudele ülerullimise tulemuste osas. Kuna Euroopa pankade vajadus uute laenude järele oli oodatust väiksem, on sellest loetud välja, et rahastamisvõimalused pole finantssektoris enam nii halvad kui need oli aasta tagasi ja see annaks keskpangale eelduse jätkata üleliigse likviidsuse kokkukorjamist finantssüsteemist. Mõni nädal tagasi ütles Jürgen Stark, et laenutähtaegade vähendamine just nimelt sellele strateegiale ka viitab, kuid EKP liikmed on ennegi esinenud meedias seisukohtadega, mida Trichet pole hiljem väga nõus kommenteerima. Väljumisstrateegia otsene kinnitamine tuleks turgudele kindlasti üllatusena, arvestades majanduspildi taashalvenemise suurenenud riski, mistõttu jääb Trichet ilmselt tavapärase statementi juurde, et intressimäärad on hetkel sobivad ja inflatsioonioht madal.
IMF tõstab täna nii globaalse, USA, kui ka euroala majanduskasvu prognoose. Kui näiteks aprillis oodati USA majanduskasvuks 2010a. 3.1% ja 2011.a. 2.6%, siis uute prognooside järgi peaks USA SKP sellel aastal tõusma 3.3% ja järgmisel aastal 2.9%. IMFi raportit saab lugeda siit.
IMFi käitumine üsna üllatav (ja pakub ka börsidele tuge), kuna viimastel päevadel on suuremad analüüsimajad just vastupidi käitunud. Näiteks eile langetas BofA USA 2010.a SKP prognoosi 3.2% pealt 3% peale ja 2011. a SKP prognoosi 3.3% pealt 2.6% peale.
Nõudluse paranemine Aasias ja USA-s ning tänu Euro nõrgenemisele tõusnud konkurentsivõime on oodatust enam toetamas Euroopa suurimat majandusmootorit, Saksamaad. Prognoositud 0,9%lise MoM kasvu asemel suurenes tööstustoodangu maht seal maikuus 2,6% ning lisaks korrigeeriti kõrgemaks ka eelneva kuu näitu (0,9%lt 1,2%le). Aastasel baasil kasvas tööstustoodang mais 12,4% versus prognoositud 9,3%. Hommikul avaldatud statistika näitas riigi maikuu ekspordikasvuks 9,2% (MoM), mis osutus samuti oodatust üle kahe korra kiiremaks.
Euroopa turud:
Saksamaa DAX +0,81%
Pantsusmaa CAC 40 +1,67%
Suurbritannia FTSE100 +2,01%
Hispaania IBEX 35 +0,85%
Rootsi OMX 30 -0,40%
Venemaa MICEX +0,74%
Poola WIG +0,64%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 +2,76%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng +0,97%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -0,25%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -0,08%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +0,52%
Tai Set 50 +0,29%
India Sensex 30 +1,03%
Rev Shark: Don't Bet on a 'V'
07/08/2010 7:10 AM
It doesn't hurt to be optimistic. You can always cry later.
-- Lucimar Santos de Lima
It was one of the most anticipated oversold bounces I can recall, but we finally managed a big positive day Wednesday. The point gain was sizable and breadth solid, but volume was lacking, which undermines the hope that a major market turn is developing.
While it certainly is possible that we have seen the lows, there was nothing in the action on Wednesday to suggest that is the case. It was simply a relief rally in a downtrending market that was stretched too far to the downside.
So do we have any more bounce left to take us up to significant overhead resistance at 1070-1075 or even 1100 on the S&P 500? Or will the short-term flippers and bears go to work and kill the upside effort quickly?
The best scenario for the bulls right now is that the news flow remains benign and doesn't give market players any convenient excuse for selling. We have weekly claims coming up this morning, which could be an issue, but strength in the euro, talk about the ECB providing liquidity and good results from the European bank stress tests are helping the bulls. There are still plenty of macroeconomic negatives out there that can easily kill this rally attempt, but the bulls have earnings coming up and many are quite optimistic about what they will hold.
When the market is downtrending, I remain skeptic of bounces. Generally a "V"-shaped bottom is a poor bet. Markets typically back and fill and have retests of support before they make a solid turn.
One of the major characteristics of this market over the past year and a half has been the propensity for "V"-shaped turns. We have had at least a half dozen occasions where we have pulled back on heavy volume and then bounced on light volume and kept on running straight up until we made a new high. That is not normally what technicians expect to see. Typically there are trapped bulls who served as resistance as they look to break even on bad trades, and bears who look to remount shorts into strength. For some reason those things just didn't apply.
Since the April the "V"-shaped bounce tendency has been lost. Three times we have attempted to bounce back and three times we failed at very obvious technical levels. This bounce is now our fourth attempt, and I expect that the bears are going to be looking to be aggressive once again as we head into resistance.
I believe the "V"-shaped bounce tendency during our rally last year was a function of liquidity created by stimulus and bailouts, but it has dried up and is no longer capable of moving us up so easily and artificially.
For now I'm giving the bulls more room to prove themselves but I'm keeping stops tight and am quick to lock in some partial gains on good trades. I see no reason to build longer-term positions right now. If we continue to hold above recent lows and form better support, then I'll look a bit longer term, but for now my main goal is fast gains while the oversold bounce lasts.
Early indications are flat as we await weekly unemployment claims. Estimates are for 465,000 new claims and 4.6 million continuing claims.
Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance/SSS: ANF +8.0%, JCP +6.5% (light volume), HOTT +5.0%, TSCO +4.9%, COST +1.2% (light volume).
Select European financial related names trading higher: IRE +3.3%, BCS +2.1%, NBG +2.1%, LYG +1.9%, CS +1.3%, RBS +1.3%, DB +1.2%, AEG +1.2%.
Select oil/gas related names seeing early strength: APC +2.4%, BP +1.5%, TOT +1.1% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS).
Other news: FBP +33.3% (announces agreement with the U.S. Treasury), DLTR +3.0% (ticking higher following positive mention in finance newspaper), VNR + 2.5% (still checking), JASO +2.2% (announces 70MW supply agreement with Solar-Fabrik AG), LDK +2.2% (signs module supply contract with ABB; upgraded to Hold from Sell at Soleil), QGEN +1.0% (still checking).
Analyst comments: MDRX +3.9% (light volume; upgraded to Buy at Auriga U.S.A; tgt raised to $20), BUD +1.1% (light volume; initiated with an Overweight at HSBC).
Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance/SSS: DRWI -17.3%, GPS -3.7%, ISCA -2.0% (light volume), TJX -1.2%, KSS -1.0%.
Other news: HRB -3.3% (current CEO Russ Smyth has resigned and appoints Alan M. Bennett to position of President and Chief Executive Officer; also downgraded to Mkt Perform at Barrington Research), MSG -3.1% (shares lower in premarket trade as speculation continues as to where LeBron James will sign), CISG -2.5% (announces follow-on public offering of ~4.6 mln ADS), AZN -1.3% (still checking for anything specific).
Analyst comments: NANO -12.0% (downgraded to Perform at Oppenheimer).