Börsipäev 8. detsember

Investeerimine
1

Allolev graafik ei ole küll kõige värskem, ent kujutab väga hästi arenguid USA valitsuse võlakirjaturul. Täpselt vastupidiselt FED-i soovile ja eesmärgile on yieldid hakanud pärast QE2 avalikustamist ülespoole liikuma. Täna jõudis 10 aastase võlakirja tulusus 3,25%ni - tase, mida viimati nähti juunis. Võttes arvesse aga arenguid aktsiaturgudel ja dollari liikumist, võiks vähenevat huvi võlakirjaturul tõlgendada kui indikatsiooni optimistlikumast majanduslikust väljavaatest. Selles valguses saab olema huvitav jälgida tänast 10a võlakirja oksjonit, mille mahuks on planeeritud 21 miljardit dollarit.

Makrokalender jääb väga õhukeseks, kui ainsana võiks suuremat tähelepanu saada Saksamaa oktoobrikuu tööstustoodangu numbrid (kell 13.00), pakkudes positiivse üllatuse korral ehk tuge ka eurole, mis on täna jätkanud dollari suhtes langust pärast õhtust sell-offi. EUR/USD hetkel 1,3218 (-0,32%). USA indeksite futuurid liiguvad hetkel -0,3-0,4% punases.

2

Morgan Stanley on tõstnud täna Kreeka juhtiva telekomiettevõtte Hellenic Telecommunications (OTE) soovituse tasemelt equal-weight tasemele overweight ning hinnasihi 7,5 eurolt 11,50 eurole. Esiteks arvatakse, et novembris avalikustatud täiendavad reformid ja kärpekavad Kreekas ei hõlma endas ettevõttele kahjulikke makse ega tohiks omada materiaalset mõju inimeste kulutustele. Lisaks soovitas Eurogroup, et Kreeka laenude tagasimakse võiks ühtida Iirimaa graafikuga, mis tähendaks perioodi nihkumist edasi vahemikku 2015-2021. Ettevõtte spetsiifiliste teguritena tuuakse välja, et OTE-l ei tohiks olla probleeme aeguvate võlakirjade refinantseerimisega ning oodatav vaba rahavoog peaks lähiaastatel stabiliseeruma ning näitama aastaks 2013 juba märkimisväärset upside (+60% vs 2010), mis kokkuvõttes annab atraktiivse risk-reward suhte ja baasstsenaariumi kohaselt 55%lise tõusupotentsiaali.

1. More comfortable with the macro environment: New austerity measures following the 2009 revised debt and deficit metrics should have little impact on OTE. IMF - EMU approved the 3rd tranche of the loan granted to Greece, stressing that the country is ahead of schedule in structural reforms. The Eurogroup suggested that loan repayment might be extended from 2015 to 2021.
2. No refinancing issues for OTE: OTE can cover €1.4-1.6 bn of the €2.1 bn 2011 maturity with its own funds and available cash. For the rest it can tap the markets or use DT as lender of last resort. 2015 bonds are trading close to par, within sovereign yield.
3. FCF turning around in 11e, 60% growth in 2013e: Lower taxes, capex and restructuring payments should offset a still declining EBITDA and allow for above 10% 11e FCF growth. In 2013e, when special taxes are over, FCF should be 60% higher than for 2010e.
4. Deep value stock: We estimate 48% upside to our 2011 fair value of €11 (vs 16% sector average upside). However, we set a €11.5 target on increased visibility on sustainable long-term FCF.
5. DT could buy OTE shares in the market from 2012: DT has not confirmed it plans to do so, however.

3

Tänane Bloomberg kirjutab, et Toyota Motor, Daimler AG ja Bayerische Motoren Werke AG on testimas liitiumioon akusid, mis on näiteks kasutusel ka sülearvutites. Sarnase akuga on varustatud ka Tesla Roadster, mis on Tesla Motors (TSLA) elektriauto sportversioon. Liitiumioon aku on odavam, kui suuremad ainult autodele mõeldud akud, mida eelistavad näiteks General Motors ja Nissan Motor.

Analüütik Koji Endo sõnul võivad liitiumioon akud viia meid ükspäev sinnani, et elektriautode tootmine saab olema odavam kui bensiiniautode ning seeläbi kasvab ka tõenäosus, et elektriautode hinnad langevad tunduvalt. Hetkel on elektriautode hind kallim enamus bensiiniautodest ning peamiseks hinnakergitajaks on just väga kõrge hinnaga aku.

4
Ja liitiumit on palju-palju Afganistanis, Boliivias ja Tšiilis...
5
Ja NYSE:LIT sees
6
Saksamaa oktoobrikuu tööstustoodang 2,9% vs oodatud 1,0% (M/M) ja 11,7% vs oodatud 10,0% (Y/Y).
EURUSD on viimase paari tunniga küll kõrgemale tulnud, kuid asub hetkel 0,15% avanemistasemest allpool 1,3242 juures.
7

Jefferies&Company analüütikud annavad täna negatiivse reitingu Netflix (NFLX)-le.

Jefferies alandab NFLX reitingut „osta“ pealt „hoia“ peale koos $195 hinnasihiga.

Barry's departure, a big loss for the company. While in the last 12 months, the company has comfortably outperformed expectations, the stock's success has been in no small part, driven by Barry McCarthy's ability to astutely guide the Street, set appropriate margins and investment targets. He's been the financial architect behind the company's success, and the #1 cheerleader for its stock with analysts and investors alike. He leaves behind big shoes to fill, particularly at the current juncture, considering that virtually everybody is gunning for it, from tech platforms like Google, Amazon and Apple, to content owners like Time Warner. Having said that, Reed Hastings, CEO, remains firmly in charge as the man behind the vision.

Eile teatas firma juhtkond, et ettevõtte CFO Barry McCarthy lahkub firmast. Analüütikute sõnul on see NFLX-le suur kaotus, sest just McCarthy on olnud suures osas firma eduloo taga, kes oskuslikult on andnud avalikkusele adekvaatset infot ja prognoose. McCarthy`t on keeruline asendada, seda enam olukorras, kus konkurendid tõmbavad piiramisrõngast aina rohkem koomale.

Greater insider selling sends negative signal to Street. In addition to several other executives who have sold stock in the last six months, Barry McCarthy sold the most. Just last week, he sold 100k shares, or ~$20M worth of stock and as of today, still owns~51K shares and 100K+ options, which he will likely sell upon leaving.

Juhtkonna aktsiamüük saadab avalikkusele negatiivseid signaale ning lisaks paljudele teistele juhtivatele töötajatele, kes viimase kuue kuu jooksul on oma positsioone vähendanud, on just McCarthy müünud maha enamuse oma positsioonist.

While we continue to like the story longer term, we find limited upside to our $195 fair value in the short term, and prefer to step to the sidelines.

Kuigi pikemas perspektiivis analüütikutele firma kontseptsioon meeldib, siis lühemas perspektiivis eelistatakse kõrvale astuda, kuna upside aktsias on limiteeritud.

Hetkel kaupleb aktsia eelturul juba 4% miinuspoolel, $182 tasemel. Kahtlemata hindavad investorid firma CFO lahkumist negatiivseks ning nii priske valuatsiooni puhul nagu seda on NFLX-l kerkib risk turuosaliste silmis veelgi. Samas ei saa eeldada, et CFO lahkumine tähendab firma jaoks fataalset tagasilööki, sest inimesed ikka liiguvad ringi ning otsivad uusi väljakutseid ja seetõttu on raske hinnata, kui negatiivseks sentiment aktsia suhtes täna muutuda võib.

Pean tunnistama, et mind NFLX-i suguse aktsia puhul -4% altpoolt enam lühikeseks müüma ei kutsu.

8
Kanada alustatud kodude ehitused novembris 187,2K vs oodatud 171,7K. Oktoobris oli vastav näitaja 167,9K. USDCAD on teist päeva kõrgemale liikumas ja kaupleb hetkel 1,0121 tasemel.
9

Gapping up

In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: MIND +11.5%, COO +4.6%, CASY +2.1% (ticking higher), GIII +1.3%, BORN +1.0% (provides 2011 pre-sale update; The Daqing Phase III facility is on schedule to become operational in January 2011; sees strong revenue and profit growth in 2011).

M&A news: CRXL +0.3% (Johnson & Johnson launches recommended public offer to acquire Crucell).

Select financial related names showing strength: IRE +7.2%, PUK +2.9% (the appointment of John Foley as Group Chief Risk Officer and an executive director on the Board effective Jan 1), STD +1.4%, BBVA +1.4%, CS +1.3%, UBS +1.1%, ING +1.0%.

Select oil/gas related names trading modestly higher: BP +1.5%, STO +1.3%, E +0.9%.

Other news: OREX +139.8% (Orexigen Therapeutics' Investigational drug contrave receives positive recommendation from FDA Advisory Committee for treatment of obesity ), VVUS +18.8% (surged into the close on OREX FDA news, continued to climb following OREX confirmation), FO +5.5% (ticking higher; intends to separate co's three businesses ), RYAAY +3.2% (still checking), QLTI +1.6% (receives orphan drug designation for QLT091001 to Treat Retinitis Pigmentosa and Receives Orphan Drug Designation for QLT091001 to Treat Retinitis Pigmentosa), DEO +1.5% (up in sympathy with FO), ORCL +0.9% (Cramer made positive comments on MadMoney).

10

NFLX-i kohta tuli just uudis:

Netflix Inc Netflix and Disney-ABC Television Group Announce Deal to Stream Array of ABC Network, Disney Channel and ABC Family Shows to Netflix Members
- The agreement, brokered by Disney-ABC Domestic Television, will add significantly to the growing selection of movies and TV episodes that can be streamed from Netflix. Once made available to Netflix from Disney-ABC which, for relevant programming, will be no earlier than 15 days after initial telecast episodes can be streamed instantly with Netflix memberships starting at $7.99 a month.

Jeffries downgrade jääb kindlasti selle uudise varju ja täna aktsiaga kauplemisel tuleks seda ka arvesse võtta.

11

Gapping down

In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: MW -9.5%, MCD -1.4% (reported comparable restaurant sales), TXN -0.8% (midqtr update), HD -0.7%.

Select metals/mining stocks trading lower: SHZ -5.9%, SWC -5.7%, GG -1.8%, PAAS -1.8%, SVM -1.7%, NG -1.5%, DNN -1.4%, EXK -1.3%, AUY -1.3%, FRG -1.2%, GRS -1.2%, HL -1.1%.

Other news: UPI -13.9% (Uroplasty receives negative coverage for posterior tibial nerve stimulation from National Government Services), PUDA -13.3% (intends to offer shares of its common stock), PPO -6.8% (filed for a common stock shelf offering for an indeterminate amount; filing includes selling shareholders), JBLU -5.2% (provided investor update in 8k slides), GST -4.8% (prices 12 mln share offering at $4/share ), NFLX -4.1% (announces CFO Barry McCarthy will depart, appoints David Wells to succeed him; downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies), CRH -3.6% (still checking), KFN -3.0% (announced that it has agreed to sell 18,000,000 of its common shares in an underwritten public offering ), STWD -2.9% (announces proposed offering of 20 mln shares of common stock), GDOT -1.7% (announces pricing of secondary public offering of Class A common stock at $61.00), MNTA -1.5% (prices public offering of 4,000,000 shares of its common stock at $14.35 per share), CXO -1.1% (to offer 2,300,000 shares of its common stock; initiated with an Accumulate at Madison Williams).

Analyst comments: WTI -4.4% (downgraded to Accumulate from Buy at Global Hunter Securities), PCX -3.1% (downgraded to Sell at Citigroup), ACI -1.5% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Citigroup), JCI -1.4% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank), ANR -1.3% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Citigroup), MMM -0.7% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman), WY -0.7% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS).

12

USA indeksite futuurid indikeerimas avanemist 0,0-0,3% kõrgemal

Euroopa turud:

Saksamaa DAX -0,05%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +0,73%
Suurbritannia FTSE100 +0,14%
Hispaania IBEX 35 +1,40%
Rootsi OMX 30 -0,13%
Venemaa MICEX -0,58%
Poola WIG -0,44%

Aasia turud:

Jaapani Nikkei 225 +0,90%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng -1,43%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -0,96%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +0,03%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -0,33%
Austraalia S&P/ASX 200 -0,57%
Tai Set 50 -1,67%
India Sensex 30 -1,19%

13

Rev Shark: Patience Is a Virtue
12/08/2010 9:10 AM

If it doesn't make sense, you should find for the defense.
 -- Johnnie Cochran

The market action was a bit confused yesterday, which means we need to be a bit more defensive now. The failure of the breakout move following a deal on taxes is giving the market a slightly negative tone. We were a bit extended to begin with, and the tax news wasn't unexpected, so a "sell the news" reaction yesterday was not too surprising. Quite often an obvious breakout level will be faded anyway and that, combined with the "sell the news" inclination, is what weighed on the market. But we had some very poor action in a number of key stocks and in commodities, which is troublesome.

So now what? While the action yesterday was negative, it wasn't enough to cause a change in the character of the market. In the bigger scheme of things, so far it was nothing more than some minor selling and does little to affect the strong uptrend that has developed over the past week.

How you handle the market at this point really is a matter of style. Short-term traders will have already taken some steps to lock in gains and increase caution. Position traders with slightly longer time frames will want to tighten up stops and be ready to act if the weakness continues and we start to downtrend further. There is no need to panic, but a higher level of caution is warranted.

The key is going to be those dip-buyers, who never had a chance to jump in over the past week as we went straight up in "V"-shaped fashion. Dip-buying always sounds like a fantastic idea until there is some real weakness, and then the buyers start to have second thoughts about how readily we are going to reverse and go straight back up.

However, once a bounce does take hold, it can gain energy quite quickly as those underinvested folks on the sidelines fret that the market is going to run away from them again. The market's inclination to produce "V"-shaped moves is what has made the dip-buyers so aggressive so often.

At this juncture, I'm going to be patient and watch to see how things develop. I don't feel any need to rush buys right now. I want to see how much confidence the dip-buyers have. The chances that the news flow may turn more negative are higher and there are still plenty of stocks that could use some consolidation.

If we consolidate now, it will set us up nicely for a run into the end of the year, but we really could use a bit of a rest and some increase in negativity to give us a "wall of worry" to climb.

We are ticking up slightly in the premarket. Commodities are weak, the dollar is ticking up, bonds are weak again and there are a ton of secondaries and IPOs hitting. There are a lot of crosscurrents to consider, so be selective with your trades and be wary about further downside developing. It is still the bulls' game to lose, but they are slipping a bit.

14

Täna tegi oma esimese etteaste USA turul Hiina e-kaubanduse firma DangDang (DANG).

DANG-le on tihti viidatud kui Hiina Amazonile, kuna firma on Hiina suurim online raamatumüüja. Septembris ulatus 9 kuu käive $234,8 miljonini ja võrreldes möödunud aasta sama perioodi tuli käibetõusuks 55,6%.

Algselt prognoositi aktsia hinnavahemikuks $11-$13, aga lõplikuks hinnaks kujunes $16.

Hetkel kaupleb DANG $25 kandis, 56% plusspoolel.

DangDang Prices 17M share IPO at $16, above the original $11-13 expected pricing range
- The underwriters were Credit Suisse and Morgan Stanley.
- The firm is a Chinese E-Commerce company, whose competitors include Alibaba's Taobao. China's largest online book retailer and e-commerce platform.
- For the nine months ended September 30, 2010, total net revenues amounted to RMB1,570.8 million (US$234.8 million), representing a 55.6% increase from RMB1,009.6 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2009.
- Achieved a net profit of RMB16.9 million (US$2.5 million) in 2009 and a net profit of RMB16.0 million (US$2.4 million) for the nine months ended September 30, 2010.
- Often referred to as the Amazon.com of China, DANG will open for trade on the NYSE


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15
Nelli, OREX ja VVUS kohta täna head uudised. Kui kõrgele need raketid võiksid lennata?
16
to balscand: OREX-i panel`i positiivne hääletustulemus oli muidugi hea üllatus, aga kuna antud tulemus pole määrava tähtusega,siis on seal ikkagi palju "agasid". Esiteks ei pruugi USA ravimiamet OREX-i ravimile siiski heakskiitu anda (tähtaeg 31.01.11), sest endiselt on päevakorral mitmed ohutusega seotud riskid. Mis puudutab VVUS-i, siis loomulikult tõusis OREX-i panel`ga ootused ka Qnexa suhtes. Kuid jällegi, see ei tee olematuks Onexa ohutusriske.
Hetkel ei soovitaks kummagi aktsiaga midagi rohkemat teha, kui jälgida ja järgmine nädal kirjutan ka detailsema ülevaate sellest, millised on analüütikute prognoosid peale OREX-i panel`t.
17
Klient helistab LHV maaklerile ja küsib: "Kas mu rahad on nüüd otsas?"

Maakler vastab: "Ei, vahetas ainult omanikku."
18
The Fed purchased $1.63 bln of 2012-2040 TIPS through Permanent Open Market Operations as dealers looked to put back $6.15 bln
19
$21 bln 10-yr Note Reopening Results: 3.340% (Expected 3.307%); Bid/Cover 2.92x (Prior 2.80x, 10-auction avg 3.12x); Indirect Bidders 44.4% (Prior 56.6%, 10-auction avg 43.4%)
20
AIG halted, mis sealt nüüd tulla võiks?