Mõned teemad tänaseks päevaks:
- WR Hambrecht alandab Lexar Media (LEXR) reitingu Hoia pealt Müü peale.
- Filmitäht Arnold Schwarzenegger võitis meie aja järgi täna varahommikul lõppenud valimised ja on nüüd California osariigi kuberner. See võib tekitada veel veidi elevust alternatiivse energia sektoris. Üheks võimalikuks kasusaajaks on pisike Proton Energy (PRTN). Lähemalt siit: http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/030922/cgm042_1.html
Fuelcellide suurimaks esindajaks on loomulikult Ballard Power (BLDP), mis on keskendunud just autotööstusele. Kui BLDP suudab rallida, siis teevad seda ka teised sama sektori aktsiad (FCEL, PLUG, CPST, SATC, IMCO, ACPW, APCC, IMGC, ITRI, ESLR, QTWW jt):
- Lisasin LHV Pro all Tenet Healthcare (THC) teemal olulise kommentaari. Esmaspäeva õhtul tuli uudis selle kohta, et firma tegevust uuritakse seoses selle osalusega ühes New Orleansi haiglas. Põhimõtteliselt võib asi olla sarnane Alvarado looga, kuid turuosalised ei pistnud jooksu, vaid pigem ostsid. See on hea märk. Kui THC suudab ära võtta veel ka $15.50 taseme, siis on tõenäoline et jätkub jõudu ka suurema vastupanu murdmiseks.
- Kalliste ravimite müüja Curative Health (CURE) andis täna hommikul päris tõsise kasumihoiatuse tuues põhjuseks hinnasurve ravimitootjate poolt. Koos CURE kukkumisega võivad alla tulla ka PHCC; CHMD ning OPTN, mis on lähemad konkurendid.
- Barrons kirjutab täna hommikul pos tooniga loo Motorolast (MOT). Uus juht ning alles mõne päeva eest teatatud pooljuhtide üksuse spin-off võivad olla alles alguseks. Analüütikute sõnul on firma tehnoloogia poolest väga heas olukorras, kuid varasem juhtimine jättis soovida. Barrons pakub hinnasihiks $18.
- CF First Boston tõstis Amazon.com (AMZN)-i hinnasihi $65 peale varasema $40 pealt. Nende arvates on firmal ees piisavalt palju pos. katalüsaatoreid ees, mis aktsia hinda ülespoole suruvad.
- Gary B. Smith
- RevShark:
Money may not buy happiness, but it sure can makes life easier. Even if money is not your primary driving force, it is the only thing that matters when trying to understand the stock market. It always boils down to the same thing: the battle between greed for more money and fear of losing what we have.
After a long bear market in which fear was the main emotion, we are back in an environment where greed is now the dominant driving force. Many market participants have struggled with this shift in emotions. The prudent behavior of the past, when fear was respected, suddenly is a losing strategy as the drive to rack up profits replaces the concern about preserving capital.
The best traders are very good amateur psychologists. They understand the personality of the market at any given time. Right now, traders need to determine how long and to what degree market participants will be driven primarily by greed rather than fear. How much longer will the quest for profits keep this market moving upward?
One of the reasons that greed is so rampant right now is that there are so many folks who were skeptical about this rally far too long. They weren't too worried about lagging the market at first, since they figured they would catch up when the inevitable reversals kicked in. However, the downtrends never came, and as the rally went on and on, their performance lagged more and more.
The folks who have underperformed aren't fearful about losing money. As far as they are concerned, they already are losing money on a relative basis. They need to catch up, and that greed is a far stronger emotion than fear of doing even worse if they are overly aggressive late in the rally.
The best recent example of how pervasive greed is at the moment is the intensity of the dip-buyers. Yesterday looked like a classic situation for some profit-taking to kick in. We had four straight days of gains, the dollar was weak, and there were good reasons for a pullback. But the dip-buyers were willing, ready and able. The morning weakness was bought, and we closed the day near the highs.
We have a flat open shaping up at the moment. The dollar has stabilized, and overseas markets are generally OK. Earnings season kicks off with a report from Yahoo! (YHOO:Nasdaq) tonight. We still have not seen any major earnings warnings.
Earnings are going to be the excuse this market uses for whatever it does in the next few weeks. We have to watch for the mind-set that is developing. Are expectations low or high? Are investors inclined to sell or buy good news?
The market is sitting right at its recent highs. It is a critical technical juncture, and we will have to be especially vigilant right now for clues as to which way this market is heading. Don't underestimate the power of greed. The only real fear right now is the fear of being left behind.
