Mõned teemad tänaseks päevaks:
- Paljude kauplejate poolt jälgitud S&P500 1060 tase on tänase hommikuse seisuga murtud. Futuurid kauplevad 1058 juures ülevaate kirjutamise ajal. See toob turule julgemad karud ja viib välja hulga ostjaid.
- Sandisk (SNDK), suur flash-mäludel põhinevate seadmete tootja, kinnitas oma 2003. aasta käibeprognoosi. See võib veidi jõudu anda ka väiksematele konkurentidele nagu Lexar Media (LEXR) ning M-Sys Flash (FLSH).
Lisaks sellele on JP Morgan täna hommikul välja positiivse nupuga Lexari (LEXR) teemal. Nende arvates on viimase aja suur kukkumine väga soodsaks sisenemiskohaks. LEXR kaupleb hetkel ca 25x järgmise aasta kasumit aktsia kohta.
- Terayon (TERN) kinnitab oma jooksva kvartali käibe-ja kasumiprognoose.
- Merrill Lynch tõstab täna hommikul Jetblue Airways (JBLU)-i reitingu Neutraalse pealt Osta peale. Nende arvates on JBLU aktsiate 45% kukkumine viimase paari kuu jooksul piisav, et muuta aktsiad odavateks. Hetkel kauplevad need 24x järgmise aasta kasumit aktsia kohta. Hinnasihiks $32.
- IBM (IBM) teatas, et on teinud järjekordseid edusamme nanotehnoloogias. Mõnikord võivad sellised uudised tekitada huvi ka sektori väiksemate esindajate juures nagu viimase aja lemmik NGEN.
- SoundView tõstab Microsofti (MSFT) reitingu Neutraalse pealt Outperform peale. Põhjuseks positiivsed infokillud Gartner/SoundView Fall Symposium IT Spending Survey-st, mis näitavad, et nõudlus tarkvaratoodete järele on jällegi elavnemas. Hinnasihiks määravad analüütikud MSFT-i jaoks $33.
Peab mainima, et MSFT regeeris sellel üpris leige pooleprotsendis tõusuga. Räägib selget keelt müüjate olemasolust.
- Barrons kirjutab täna hommikul päris negativselt sellistest tehnoloogiafirmadest nagu SNDK, LNUX ning XYBR
SNDK puhul räägitakse selles, et praegused hinnatasemed diskonteerivad sisse 25% p.a käibetõusu järgmise 10 aasta jooksul.
LNUX on Linuxi-play, mis tegelikult lahkus Linuxi-ärist juba kahe aasta eest.
XYBR on huvitavaid kaasaskantavaid PC-d tootev firma, mis siiski pole nende pealt kunagi sentigi teeninud. Investoritele tundub siiski meeldivat kontsept.
- Wells Fargo alandab Motorola (MOT) reitingu Hoia peale varasema Osta asemel. Nende arvates on firma õiglane väärtus $8-17.50 aktsia kohta. Pärast pooljuhtide osakonna spin-offi meentuab firma järjest enam Nokiat (NOK)
- Gary B. Smith:
- ReVshark:
Since March the best way to make money in this market has been to stay long and strong and focus on technology and small-cap stocks. Last week we saw some signs that the environment may be changing and that adaptation should be considered. One of the great certainties of the stock market is that the best way to make money will constantly change. There is no single style of trading or investing that will work equally well in all market environments. The key is to know when to seek a new remedy to the market conundrum and amend your approach.
Are we at one of those key turning points now that requires us to adapt and change to avoid the pain of new evils? The bears have been warning for some time that an ugly fall is imminent, but the market has continued to hold up fairly well.
Although the indices didn't fully reflect it, there was some substantial weakness in various parts of the market last week. Most notable were semiconductors, education stocks and many of the recent small-cap momentum favorites. The question for us to contemplate is whether this is an indication of the start of a substantial change in character, or just healthy profit-taking that will provide a more bullish atmosphere to end the year.
One of most worrisome things for the bulls has been the lack of positive reaction to good economic news. We have not been seeing much upside, despite confirmation that things are looking better for the economy. Last week the news stopped being so positive. Intel (INTC:Nasdaq) had a mediocre update, and then the jobs report was poorer than expected.
A healthy market could easily shrug off such things, but the bearish argument is that we are priced for perfection and it is nearly impossible for the market to sustain its momentum. No one is seriously arguing that the economy isn't improving. The argument is over to whatever degree it has already been priced in.
On top of the valuation argument, market participants are worried over continued weakness in the dollar. Overnight the euro hit yet another new high against the dollar. The yen also gained strength. Gold, which is the favorite trading vehicle of many who are betting against the dollar, continues to rally. Spot gold is trading up to the $409 level this morning.
The currency issues makes tomorrow's Federal Open Market Committee decision on interest rates particularly interesting. No one expects rates to change, but there is much speculation over whether there will be an indication that rate hikes may come sooner than previously thought. The thinking is that such an indication may help stem the bleeding in the dollar. Higher interest rates will make the dollar more attractive to foreign investors.
The struggle is keeping the Monday morning optimist at bay this morning. We have a weak open shaping up. Overseas markets are weak across the board with Japan leading to the downside with a loss of more than 3%. In Europe, Germany continues to be the laggard. We have a tricky week coming up. The focus will be on the dollar and the Fed. The chip stocks should be the best indicator of where we are heading in the short term. If that group can turn, we may see a decent bounce.
Futuurid: Naz-0.39% SP-0.25%
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