Börsipäev 7. juuli - tulemuste hooaeg avatud

Täna saab tulemuste hooaeg avatud kui peale turu lõppu raporteerivad Alcoa (AA), Genentech (DNA) ja Yahoo! (YHOO).

Enne turu avanemist on olulisematest tulemustest laekunud Accenture (ACN) tulemused, ootustele vastavate tulemuste järel on aktsia eelturul -1,80%, antud turusituatsioonis lihtsalt prognooside täitmist ilmselt ei väärtustata.

Massiliselt kasumihoiatusi on laekunud tarkvaratootjatelt, hoiatuse andnud on eelturul suures miinuses: Ascential Software (ASCL) -18,90%, JDA Software (JDAS) -13,50%, Kana Software (KANA) -12,32%, Peoplesoft (PSFT) - 7.85%.

Prognoose kergitanud Quest Software (QSFT) aktsia aga +7,65%.

Rev Shark:

"If Thomas Edison invented electric light today, Dan Rather would report it on CBS News as, "Candle-making industry threatened."

-- Newt Gingrich

The market suffered one of its weakest days of the year yesterday as technology stocks led the selloff. The selloff took place on heavy volume and left few sectors untouched, but the most troubling aspect was the breach of important technical support levels in all the major indices.

Quite often, market participants struggle to understand what caused a particular move in the market. This time there wasn't any great mystery; there has been no good news for the bulls to use as justification for buying. We have had more than the usual number of earnings warnings, some from bellwethers, and a spate of weaker-than-expected economic news. The bulls simply have not been given any convenient reason to justify buying.

The bulls will argue that things really aren't that bad. The economy is still growing, interest rates are under control, and the "good" earnings reports will be out soon. Perhaps, but probably the biggest positive for the bulls is that the aggressive selloff should decrease the high level of optimism we have had recently. There have been too many bulls, and that has probably reduced that amount of buying power out there to drive the market up. Days like yesterday go a long way toward increasing the amount of cash on the sidelines that can used to fuel a future rally.

The bulls' best hope right now is that the earnings season produce some good reports that will help change the market mood. We have Alcoa (AA:NYSE), Genetech (DNA:NYSE) and Yahoo! (YHOO:Nasdaq) reporting after the close tonight, but the great bulk of reports doesn't start until next week. The Yahoo! report tonight probably has the best potential for bringing in some buying, but it is a highly anticipated event, and investor expectations may still be quite high.

One of the benefits of the recent market softness is that good earnings report can have a favorable impact. Expectations are not high, and we are unlikely to see a sell-the-news reaction to solid reports.

With the exception of the earnings reports mentioned above, there is a paucity of news events that is going to make it tough going for the bulls who badly need some catalyst to spark some buying. Throw in the technical damage that has been done, and we are going to need to be very suspicious of any rally right now.

The key sector to watch today is software. There were more warnings in the sector last night after the group led to the downside yesterday. If this group can find a bottom, that would be a positive, but the news so far has been surprisingly bad, and buyers are unlikely to be interested in bargain-hunting at this juncture.

The bulls are hopeful that this weakness is setting us up for a good rally when earnings reports start to hit in earnest. That may well be the case, and that hope is likely to help support the market for the next few days.

We have a little bounce in futures to start the day Overseas markets did little, but oil is trading down. The dollar is weak, and gold has spiked up and is making a run at the $400 level again.

Gary B. Smith

Tarkvara on tõesti sektor kus suur osa muresid viimastel päevadel tulnud on, nõudlus tundub seal olevat äkitselt ära vajunud. Eks esimesed tulemused sealt ja teistest sektoritest annavad täpsemalt aimu.
Gapping Down

A number of stocks are lower on warnings: SCUR -33%, FILE -28%, ASCL -20%, NTPA -16%, JDAS -14%, NITE -12%, PSFT -8%.... COCO -4% (announces streamlining of Canadian campuses, neg impact on Y05 EPS), LLL -3% (JP Morgan downgrade), EBAY -2% (Prudential downgrade).

Gapping Up

SFLK +22% (co and Microsoft join forces for Homeland Security), CAMT +19% (guides Q2 revs), GERN +6% (announces Telomerase license agreement with Procter & Gamble), QSFT +6% (guides above consensus), AKS +4% (Merrill upgrade), SUNW +3% (estimates raised above consensus at Merrill).... Air Cargo stocks are running again: WLDA +17% (to lease two additional cargo jets), AIRT +11%... Under $3: SSPX +17%, MCLD +16% (inks deal with AT&T), GGNS +8%.
Jätkates eilset traditsiooni,...

...ma söön oma SUURE, KARVASE, REBASENAHAST mütsi ära, kui juba praeguseks pole garanteeritud, et homme on enimkaubeldud aktsiate seas 1) WLDA ja 2) SFLK

:)
suffiks, vihjed on head asjad, kuid miks homme ja mitte täna?
See ei ole saba kergitamiseks, aga lihtsalt olen tähele pannud, et kui Eesti (HPA) ning Soome, Saksa (NOK) aktsiad välja arvata, kipub enimkaubeldud aktsiate nimekiri kahtlaselt sarnanema minu treideri tehingu väljavõtetega :/. Ma järeldan sellest, et treideri kasutajaskond on suht õhuke või ei rakendata seda tema võimete kohaselt. No, treidimine treidimise pärast on muidugi ridikjulõs, aga siiski...

Ah jaa, listi apdeiditakse ju järgmine päev, kui ma olen õigesti tähele pannud.
poisid, lõpetage see karvamütsi söömise jutt, mul tuleb kohe selline imelik tunne peale ...
LMFAO

Ridikjulõs, et tõenäoliselt regati ekstra selle postituse jaoks selline kaval kasutajanimi :). Küll mõnel on ikka energiat ülearu.
James Altucher realmoney.comis kirjutab oma QQQ-crash süsteemist, mis on töötanud 48 korda 48-st:

The Crash: A move in the Nasdaq-100 Unit Trust (QQQ:Amex - commentary - research) that is 1.5 standard deviations down from its 10-day moving average.

Using the 10-day average guarantees that the move will be sharp. Using 1.5 standard deviations guarantees that the move is larger than 95% of the moves the QQQ has made in its five-year history.


The Buy Signal: The morning after the crash. The dust has settled. The panic is over. Buy the open.

The Sell Signal: On the earlier of the following two events: 1) a close that is higher than the entry price of the position; or 2) after 20 trading days (one month).
Kuidas tõde tehakse:

10:55 CHTR Charter Comm lifts on sketchy rumor that Mark Cuban will raise his stake in co (3.84 +0.09)
The source of this rumor appears to be online message boards.


:)

Marc Cubani blog - http://www.blogmaverick.com/

Altrucher jätab märkimata, et 48x järjest (tehingutasusid arvestamata) toimis süsteem 1999-2001. Viimasel 3 aastal on olnud vähemalt paar 20 päevast timeouti ja kogukasum ligikaudu 0.
Hm, coral, kust seda vaatasid? Tema jutust saan aru, et see siiski alates QQQ-ga kauplemise algusest kuni tänaseni on töötanud 48-st 48 korda.

Eelmine aasta kirjutas ta nii:

From March 1999 (the advent of the QQQs) to May 2003, when I first wrote about the system, there had been 40 trades triggered, 40 of them winners, with an average gain of 2.55% per trade. Partly to avoid the dangers of curve-fitting, I examined the system from a variety of viewpoints, varying the moving average, the number of standard deviations and the holding period; all were successful versions of the same system.
Noh, kui keegi Realmoneys annab kindla süsteemi mis töötab ajalooliselt 100%, siis võid kindel olla, et testijaid jagub:). Tegelikult võib Altucheril muidugi ka õigus olla, sest ta annab vaid oma süsteemi sõnalise kirjelduse. Samuti pole teada mis datat ta kasutab. Ka sellest võib tulla erinevusi. Igal juhul soovitan enne järgitegemist see ära testida.
Testida tuleks loomulikult, ega see polnudki otsese soovitusena mõeldud, pigem silmaringi laiendava võimalusena.
Yahoo! (YHOO) ei avanud majandustulemuste hooaega kuigi kena pauguga, prognoosid suudeti napilt täita ja see polnud investoritele piisav. Aktsia on järelturul koguni 12% miinuses.

Ka teine suurem tulemustega tulnud ettevõte Alcoa (AA) ei tulnud piisavate tulemustega ning aktsia -2.5%.

Oluline kuidas turg homme neid negatiivseid sõnumeid seedida suudab.

16:36 YHOO Yahoo! reports in line EPS, revs slightly below consensus (32.60 -0.62)

Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.08 per share, in line with the Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.08; revenues rose 89.5% year/year to $609.1 mln vs the $611.7 mln consensus. Company sees Q3 revs of $610-650 mln (excluding TAC), consensus $649.3 mln, sees Y04 revenues of $2.46-2.54 bln, consensus $2.53 bln.
Kuid mis toimub tarkvarasektoriga (indeksaktsia SWH)?? See nädal mitmeid hoiatusi ja täna õhtul ka veel Siebel (SEBL) hoiatas. Kauplemine peatatud, jätkub ilmselt kell 00.15 meie aja järgi.

QQQ on nende uudiste peale 1.35% järelturul miinuses.
SEBL -17%.
LHV Pro tootluse tabel uuendatud, kolumnide veerus
Siebel Systemsi (SEBL) puhul tahaks viidata korra firma $4 cashile per aktsia. Hetkel kaupleb SEBL $7-8 vahel.

sB