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December ADP Employment Change -693K vs -495K consensus, prior revised to -472K from -250K
December ADP Employment Change -693K vs -495K consensus, prior revised to -472K from -250K
Intel sees Q4 revs of $8.2 bln vs $8.74 bln First Call consensus
Aktsia eelturul -4.5%.
Aktsia eelturul -4.5%.
Saksamaa DAX -1.11%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -0.57%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 -1.85%
Hispaania IBEX 35 -1.40%
Venemaa MICEX N/A (börs suletud)
Poola WIG -1.17%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 +1.74%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng -3.37%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -0.68%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +0.07%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +2.22%
Tai Set 50 -2.67%
India Sensex 30 -7.25%
A Bumpy Ride Ahead
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
1/7/2009 8:35 AM EST
I try to avoid looking forward or backward, and try to keep looking upward.
-- Charlotte Bronte
Many market players are breathing a sigh of relief as the first three trading days of 2009 make the pain of 2008 feel like a distant memory. We have seen some action in the last few days unlike any we have seen in over a year. We have plenty of forgotten small-cap names perking up, and energy, steel and commodity names are running straight up.
So is this finally the big shift that we have been waiting to see for so long? After the misery of 2008, are we going to make the big turn at the very beginning of 2009 and never look back?
Sentiment seems to be leaning that way, especially as negative news is not having much impact. The minutes of the last FOMC meeting that were released yesterday afternoon were extremely gloomy and made it clear that members were quite concerned about a historic economic meltdown, but the market acted like that was old news and traded to a new high for the day soon after.
This morning we have some poor news from Alcoa (AA) -- the company is laying off employees and cutting production and capital expenditures. That is putting a little pressure on the basic materials sector, which has been leading lately, and we are even seeing a pullback in bulk shippers, which have gapping up each morning for the last four days.
We need to focus on whether the run over the last five days or so is just some unjustified start-of-the-new-year optimism and positioning, or whether it's the foundation from which we will finally start a sustained uptrend or at least a pretty good bear-market bounce. The difficulty we face is that the technical conditions really haven't been tested yet. We had a little parabolic move and some euphoria, but the proof of a strong market comes in the action that occurs during a pullback. Will bad news continue to be ignored? Will the upcoming earnings season -- which is likely to be weak -- have any impact?
As I write, the ADP employment numbers are out and are quite weak, with a drop of 693,000 vs. 495,000 expectations and a big negative revision to the prior month. The reaction to numbers like this will tell us about the health and sustainability of the recent move. I mentioned yesterday that growth in unemployment is one of my major worries, as I don't think the market is mentally prepared for the type of increases that have been projected.
In any event, I'm certainly not convinced that it is smooth sailing from here. We do have better technical action, and if we continue to see mild pullbacks and bases develop, that bodes very well, but it is going to be a bumpy ride. The extent of the bullish sentiment I'm seeing lately is a worry, and the market is probably going to find a way to deal with it before it delivers more upside.
-----------------------------
Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: CPY +30.9%, NTCT +12.3%, PLCM +11.4% (target lowered to $20 at Kaufman Bros following preannouncement), IWOV +11.2%, FDO +6.9%, FFIV +6.7%, MON +6.2%, KBR +5.2%, TISI +1.7% (light volume)... Select agriculture/chemical names showing strength following MON results: MOS +2.8%, TRA +2.8%, POT +2.7%, AGU +2.4%, SYT +1.5%... Select European drug names trading higher: SHPGY +4.6%, NVS +2.6%, GSK +1.7%... Other news: LJPC +93.3% (discloses it entered into a development and commercialization agreement with BioMarin CF Limited), ICOG +71.8% (Court enters judgment in ICO litigation against Boeing), IR +7.5% (receives U.S. Department of Energy contract worth up to $5 billion), BCS +4.0% and LYG +3.6% (still checking for anything specific), RMBS +3.3% (Rambus DDR3 interface solution selected by Panasonic), VZ +1.4% and ETN +1.3% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney)... Analyst comments: AKS +3.6% (upgraded to Buy at Goldman - DJ), MU +3.5% (upgraded to Buy at UBS).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: XRTX -19.4% (light volume), IXYS -9.7%, SMSC -7.3%, INTC -5.0%, MCHP -5.0%, GPN -4.4%, TWX -4.4%, PERY -3.7%... Select Indian names showing weakness with India's Sensex Index down 7% following Saytam news: SAY -77.5% (Satyam's Chairman resigns after inflating profit, revenue figures - WSJ), IBN -9.6%, IFN -8.8%, HDB -8.1%, IFN -7.1%, INFY -5.5%, WIT -3.7%... Select semiconductor/tech related names trading lower with SAY news and INTC guidance weighing on sector: CTSH -7.4%, ERTS -4.3%, AMAT -3.6%, DELL -3.4%, AMD -2.9%, MSFT -2.7%, CSCO -2.5%, STM -1.6%, ORCL -1.5%, IBM -1.4%, GOOG -1.3%, AAPL -1.3%... Select metals/mining names showing weakness: AAUK -6.2%, BBL -4.3%, RTP -3.8%, BHP -2.5%, FCX -1.4%... Select solar names trading lower: JASO -5.3%, SOLF -4.8%, LDK -3.9%, STP -2.8%, FSLR -1.8%... Select drybulk shippers trading lower: EXM -5.9%, EGLE -5.7%, DRYS -4.7%, GNK -4.1%, DSX -2.9%... Other news: ACAS -10.4% (pulling back after yesterday's 25%+ move), CHU -10.1% and CHL -6.2% (China issues 3G licenses to all 3 telecom cos - DJ), ARTC -8.9% (pulling back after this week's 40%+ gains), AA -5.5% (announces actions to conserve cash, reduce costs and strengthen competitiveness), MGM -4.0% (announces CitiCenter changes; co is postponing the opening of the Harmon Hotel to late 2010 and canceling The Harmon residential condo component), PGN -3.8% (announces proposed 11.5 mln share offering of common stock), EPD -3.2% (announces the commencement of the public offering of 8.6 mln shares), BP -2.4% (falls 4% in Europe as analysts see tough 4Q earnings outlook - DJ)... Analyst comments: LVS -8.9% (downgraded to Hold at Deutsche), WOOF -4.0% (downgraded to Market Perform at Morgan Keegan), PTR -3.8% (downgraded to Hold at Standpoint), TSCO -3.6% (downgraded to Neutral at Piper), ACM -3.0% (downgraded to Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley), AZO -2.7% (downgraded to Neutral at Merrill).
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
1/7/2009 8:35 AM EST
I try to avoid looking forward or backward, and try to keep looking upward.
-- Charlotte Bronte
Many market players are breathing a sigh of relief as the first three trading days of 2009 make the pain of 2008 feel like a distant memory. We have seen some action in the last few days unlike any we have seen in over a year. We have plenty of forgotten small-cap names perking up, and energy, steel and commodity names are running straight up.
So is this finally the big shift that we have been waiting to see for so long? After the misery of 2008, are we going to make the big turn at the very beginning of 2009 and never look back?
Sentiment seems to be leaning that way, especially as negative news is not having much impact. The minutes of the last FOMC meeting that were released yesterday afternoon were extremely gloomy and made it clear that members were quite concerned about a historic economic meltdown, but the market acted like that was old news and traded to a new high for the day soon after.
This morning we have some poor news from Alcoa (AA) -- the company is laying off employees and cutting production and capital expenditures. That is putting a little pressure on the basic materials sector, which has been leading lately, and we are even seeing a pullback in bulk shippers, which have gapping up each morning for the last four days.
We need to focus on whether the run over the last five days or so is just some unjustified start-of-the-new-year optimism and positioning, or whether it's the foundation from which we will finally start a sustained uptrend or at least a pretty good bear-market bounce. The difficulty we face is that the technical conditions really haven't been tested yet. We had a little parabolic move and some euphoria, but the proof of a strong market comes in the action that occurs during a pullback. Will bad news continue to be ignored? Will the upcoming earnings season -- which is likely to be weak -- have any impact?
As I write, the ADP employment numbers are out and are quite weak, with a drop of 693,000 vs. 495,000 expectations and a big negative revision to the prior month. The reaction to numbers like this will tell us about the health and sustainability of the recent move. I mentioned yesterday that growth in unemployment is one of my major worries, as I don't think the market is mentally prepared for the type of increases that have been projected.
In any event, I'm certainly not convinced that it is smooth sailing from here. We do have better technical action, and if we continue to see mild pullbacks and bases develop, that bodes very well, but it is going to be a bumpy ride. The extent of the bullish sentiment I'm seeing lately is a worry, and the market is probably going to find a way to deal with it before it delivers more upside.
-----------------------------
Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: CPY +30.9%, NTCT +12.3%, PLCM +11.4% (target lowered to $20 at Kaufman Bros following preannouncement), IWOV +11.2%, FDO +6.9%, FFIV +6.7%, MON +6.2%, KBR +5.2%, TISI +1.7% (light volume)... Select agriculture/chemical names showing strength following MON results: MOS +2.8%, TRA +2.8%, POT +2.7%, AGU +2.4%, SYT +1.5%... Select European drug names trading higher: SHPGY +4.6%, NVS +2.6%, GSK +1.7%... Other news: LJPC +93.3% (discloses it entered into a development and commercialization agreement with BioMarin CF Limited), ICOG +71.8% (Court enters judgment in ICO litigation against Boeing), IR +7.5% (receives U.S. Department of Energy contract worth up to $5 billion), BCS +4.0% and LYG +3.6% (still checking for anything specific), RMBS +3.3% (Rambus DDR3 interface solution selected by Panasonic), VZ +1.4% and ETN +1.3% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney)... Analyst comments: AKS +3.6% (upgraded to Buy at Goldman - DJ), MU +3.5% (upgraded to Buy at UBS).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: XRTX -19.4% (light volume), IXYS -9.7%, SMSC -7.3%, INTC -5.0%, MCHP -5.0%, GPN -4.4%, TWX -4.4%, PERY -3.7%... Select Indian names showing weakness with India's Sensex Index down 7% following Saytam news: SAY -77.5% (Satyam's Chairman resigns after inflating profit, revenue figures - WSJ), IBN -9.6%, IFN -8.8%, HDB -8.1%, IFN -7.1%, INFY -5.5%, WIT -3.7%... Select semiconductor/tech related names trading lower with SAY news and INTC guidance weighing on sector: CTSH -7.4%, ERTS -4.3%, AMAT -3.6%, DELL -3.4%, AMD -2.9%, MSFT -2.7%, CSCO -2.5%, STM -1.6%, ORCL -1.5%, IBM -1.4%, GOOG -1.3%, AAPL -1.3%... Select metals/mining names showing weakness: AAUK -6.2%, BBL -4.3%, RTP -3.8%, BHP -2.5%, FCX -1.4%... Select solar names trading lower: JASO -5.3%, SOLF -4.8%, LDK -3.9%, STP -2.8%, FSLR -1.8%... Select drybulk shippers trading lower: EXM -5.9%, EGLE -5.7%, DRYS -4.7%, GNK -4.1%, DSX -2.9%... Other news: ACAS -10.4% (pulling back after yesterday's 25%+ move), CHU -10.1% and CHL -6.2% (China issues 3G licenses to all 3 telecom cos - DJ), ARTC -8.9% (pulling back after this week's 40%+ gains), AA -5.5% (announces actions to conserve cash, reduce costs and strengthen competitiveness), MGM -4.0% (announces CitiCenter changes; co is postponing the opening of the Harmon Hotel to late 2010 and canceling The Harmon residential condo component), PGN -3.8% (announces proposed 11.5 mln share offering of common stock), EPD -3.2% (announces the commencement of the public offering of 8.6 mln shares), BP -2.4% (falls 4% in Europe as analysts see tough 4Q earnings outlook - DJ)... Analyst comments: LVS -8.9% (downgraded to Hold at Deutsche), WOOF -4.0% (downgraded to Market Perform at Morgan Keegan), PTR -3.8% (downgraded to Hold at Standpoint), TSCO -3.6% (downgraded to Neutral at Piper), ACM -3.0% (downgraded to Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley), AZO -2.7% (downgraded to Neutral at Merrill).
Vesti telekanali eilsetest uudistest. Euroopa saab gaasi läbi Valgevene ja BALTIKUMI. Vot nii :)))
Mida ootab USA Kaubanduskoda USA 4. kvartali SKP näidult? Õige vastus on -5% ning töötusmäära nähakse 2009. aasta jooksul tõusmas 8.5% kuni 9%ni.
Ka Morgan Stanley on 9%-list töötusemäära prognoosinud, tõenäoliselt hakkavad ennustused varsti 10%-ni jõudma.
ja siis üle 10% jne
kuni 100% välja, mõni Dr. Doom siis koguni üle 100%
side kick, ha-ha
how 15% sound
baked in ?
how 15% sound
baked in ?
Protsentide loopimise asemel üritaks asju nüüd pisut konteksti ka panna.
Kui võtta tööealiseks elanikkonnaks (jätame mängust välja need, kes vabatahtlikult kodus on) USAs ca 200 miljonit inimest, siis detsembrilõpune prognoositud 7%line töötusmäär tõlgendub 14 miljonis töötus. 10%i peale jõudmiseks oleks vaja täiendavalt 6 miljonit töökoha kaotust. 15%line töötus eeldaks täiendavat 16 miljoni töökoha kaotust. 2008. aastal kaotati eeldatavasti ca 2.5 miljonit töökohta...
Kui võtta tööealiseks elanikkonnaks (jätame mängust välja need, kes vabatahtlikult kodus on) USAs ca 200 miljonit inimest, siis detsembrilõpune prognoositud 7%line töötusmäär tõlgendub 14 miljonis töötus. 10%i peale jõudmiseks oleks vaja täiendavalt 6 miljonit töökoha kaotust. 15%line töötus eeldaks täiendavat 16 miljoni töökoha kaotust. 2008. aastal kaotati eeldatavasti ca 2.5 miljonit töökohta...
see oleks juba depressioon, kas pole
mõte lihtsalt selles, et üle 10% minek ei ole võimatu, samas vastukaaluks 100 loopida ...
doomiks aitaks ka 15st
mõte lihtsalt selles, et üle 10% minek ei ole võimatu, samas vastukaaluks 100 loopida ...
doomiks aitaks ka 15st
COMDX Saudi Foreign Minister says rejects Iran call for Muslim countries to use oil to pressure Israel's backers
Saudid selgelt läänemeelsed ning Iraan tõestas taaskord, et seisab läänemaailma vastu. USAga sellised avaldused suhteid kindlasti ei paranda.
Saudid selgelt läänemeelsed ning Iraan tõestas taaskord, et seisab läänemaailma vastu. USAga sellised avaldused suhteid kindlasti ei paranda.
Huvitav, kas INTC hinnas tundub käibeprognoosi alandamine sees olevat ?
Põhjadest on juba üsna tublisti kosutud ning kui suudetakse päev enam vähem flat lõpetada, siis oleks pilt ikka väga optimistlik.
Hetkel $14.80 tasemel, -3.71% languses, kui päeva alguses oldi -7% languses.
Hetkel $14.80 tasemel, -3.71% languses, kui päeva alguses oldi -7% languses.
Nafta tõestab oma viimase aja volatiilset iseloomu - barreli hind $44 ja päevaseks muutuseks -9.5%.
Infoks siis, et 2008. aasta lõpetas S&P500 indeks 903.5 punkti peal ning just see tase on olnud seni tänase päeva põhjaks.
selle aasta tipp tehti eriti vara ära, kohe esimese nädalaga ;)
Aga kas mitte commodityte ning toornafta hinnatõus ei näita mitte seda, et sügavat depressiooni ei tule?