Börsipäev 7. detsember

Investeerimine
21

Täna on Morgan Stanley analüütikud väljas positiivse reitingumuutusega Red Hat (RHT)-kohta.

Morgan Stanley tõstab RHT aktsia reitingu „hoia“ pealt „osta“ peale koos $55 hinnasihiga.

More sustainable billings growth and improved cash conversion will drive FY12 forecasts higher. Declining server growth forecasts have investors expecting decelerating growth in RHT billings, but several factors lead us to believe growth can sustain into FY12: 1) growth in the renewal base will more than offset the server slowdown, 2) JBoss momentum should continue while its book to bill should improve in FY12, 3) free-to-paid migrations remain strong, 4) recent pricing increases for virtualized and multi-CPU servers lift ASPs, while new SKUs expand the TAM and 5) renewal rates should continue to improve. Sustained billings growth will be matched by higher billings margins and tax benefits, which should accelerate cash flow.

Investorite peamine mure on olnud siiani ettemaksu summade vähenemine, mis koos serverite kasvu kahanemisega on pannud kahtluse alla firma võime järgmisel aastal häid tulemusi näidata. Analüütikute arvates näitavad mitmed märgid, et muretsemiseks pole põhjust ning ettemaksude kasv on piisav katmaks serverite madalseisu. JBoss`i hoogne kasv peaks jätkuma samuti vähemalt 2012.aastasse ning hiljutine virtualiseeritud ja multi-CPU serverite hinnatõus tõstab ASP.

Põhinedes eelpool loetletud argumentidele, ütlevad Morgan Stanley analüütikud, et lähemas tulevikus pole välistatud ka nende Bull case stsenaarium, mis teeks aktsiahinnaks $70.

Ka siin on tegemist street high hinnasihiga ning lisaks sellele peaks turg positiivsele reitingumuutusele kindlasti tuge andma. Aktsia kaupleb eelturul 2,5% plusspoolel, $48 kandis.

22

Gapping down

In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: TLB -21.1%, XING -15.4%, FSYS -7.0% (also announces commencement of public offering of 2,000,000 shares of common stock), MLNK -1.1%.

M&A news: AGL -3.4% (NICOR and AGL Resources to combine in $8.6 bln transaction; Nicor shareholders to receive cash and stock valued at $53.00 per share).

Other news: GERN -16.5% (announces an agreement with Angiochem for a worldwide exclusive license to peptide technology, announces that it is offering to sell shares of its common stock in an underwritten public offering), SWS -8.5% (announces public offering of $95 mln convertible senior notes offering), AVGO -6.3% (announces sale of 25 mln ordinary shares by selling shareholders), AXU -6.3% (announces CAD$30.8 million bought deal financing), WTFC -5.9% (commences underwritten public offering of 3,205,128 shares of common stock and 4 mln tangible equity units), ESLR -4.9% (announces recapitalization plan), GST -3.4% (announces public offering of 12 mln common shares), BPZ -3.4% (filed for a $500 mln mixed shelf offering), KOG -2.2% (files for 20 mln share common stock offering), RP -1.4% (priced a 9 mln share common stock offering at $25.75/share), RLD -1.0% (prices secondary offering of 7,815,001 shares of its common stock by existing shareholders at $27.75 per share).

Analyst comments: RIMM -0.7% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Gleacher, downgraded to Underperform from Buy at Credit Agricole).

23
Kanada keskpank jättis intressimäära muutmata 1% peale.
24

USA indeksite futuurid indikeerimas avanemist 0,8% kuni 1,2% kõrgemal. EUR/USD +0,64% @ 1,339, kuld +1,0% @ 1430USD, nafta +1,3% @ 90,5 USD

Euroopa turud:

Saksamaa DAX +1,08%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +1,98%
Suurbritannia FTSE100 +1,24%
Hispaania IBEX 35 +0,84%
Rootsi OMX 30 +0,83%
Venemaa MICEX +0,46%
Poola WIG +0,52%

Aasia turud:

Jaapani Nikkei 225 -0,26%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng +0,82%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +0,65%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +1,06%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +0,39%
Austraalia S&P/ASX 200 +0,81%
Tai Set 50 +0,64%
India Sensex 30 -0,23%

25

Rev Shark: Respect the Bulls
12/07/2010 8:37 AM

Pothinus: "Is it possible that Caesar, the conqueror of the world, has time to occupy himself with such a trifle as our taxes?"
Caesar: "My friend, taxes are the chief business of a conqueror of the world."

-- George Bernard Shaw, Caesar and Cleopatra

The S&P 500 is set to hit a two year high on the open this morning after President Obama cut a deal with Republicans to extend the Bush tax cuts for everyone. The president didn't have much choice, so this isn't all that surprising, but nonetheless it removes uncertainty and the market is pleased to see it resolved. The major danger was that investors might rush to lock in capital gains before rates rose on Jan. 1, but now there is no reason to sell stocks with big gains.

Although the markets consolidated a bit yesterday with some flat action, we are becoming a bit technically extended. But this is a market that has consistently punished those who are too quick to fight the power of momentum. We have another classic "V"-shaped move right to new highs. Not only are the bears crushed by this sort of action, it also creates a huge supply of underinvested bulls who are anxious to buy any dip. The biggest mistake that the bears keep making is underestimating the power of this underlying support.

The best advice I can give right now is to fight the inclination to call a market top. Sure, there are all sorts of great bearish arguments -- there always are -- but trying to time a top in the indices just isn't a very good way to make money. You are far better off focusing on chart setups in individual stocks. Take the good setups that you find and trade them aggressively.

As the market becomes more extended, there will be fewer and fewer setups to pursue, a situation that will raise your cash level and put you in position to handle a market pullback. If you simply stay focused on individual stocks, take profits systematically and keep fairly tight stops, you will be positioned much better than someone who keeps trying to call a market top.

Also keep in mind that markets typically don't fall apart immediately after making new highs. Crashes almost always come after a period of poor action. Far more money has been lost worrying about market crashes than has been actually lost in one. While you may think the bears have some very good arguments, don't be too quick to think the market is going to suddenly fall apart. If you want to play the downside, wait for some weakness to occur first and some signs that the dip-buyers are going to stand aside. We are nowhere close to that situation at this time.

Other than being a bit technically extended, the bulls have everything working for them right now. We are ignoring the bad jobs news, embracing the good tax deal news, the skeptics are becoming extremely frustrated and we have positive end-of-the-year seasonality. The trend is up and the bulls are in control. Govern yourself accordingly.

26

USA valitsus müüs oma viimased 2.4 miljardit Citigroupi (C) aktsiat ja teenis investeeringult maksumaksjatele ca $12 miljardit brutokasumit. 2008. aastal andis valitsus Citigroupile päästeplaani raames $45 miljardit, millest $20 miljardit maksti tagasi eelisaktsiatega ja $25 miljardi suurune võlg konverteeriti 7.7 miljardiks lihtaktsiaks, millega valitsus sai USA suuruselt kolmandas pangas 27% suuruse osaluse. (link)

27
Mis värk on, et Citigroup on viimased kuud, erinevalt Bank of Amerikast, nii ägedalt tõusnud? (Mind see muidugi rõõmustab)
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Täna on siis OREX-i "kohtupäev" ja kes soovib panel`l toimuvast paremat ülevaadet võib jälgida Adam Feuersteini live blogi siin.

29
The Fed purchased $6.81 bln of 2014-2016 maturities through Permanent Open Market Operations as dealers looked to put back $16.42 bln
30
Iirimaa eelarvehääletus toimub kell 21.00, mis peaks kindlasti ka turgudel liikumist tekitama.
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Tänastest ideedest töötas mõnevõrra üllatuslikult kõige paremini RIMM. Avanemisel oli võimalus positsioon soetada $63 pealt ehk sisuliselt sulgumishinna lähedalt ja esimese poole tunni jooksul kukkus aktsia $62 tasemeni. Hetkel kaupleb RIMM $62,20 kandis, ca 1,7% miinuspoolel.

Kõige ebaõnnestunum idee oli täna kindlasti RHT. Aktsia avanes $48,30 kandist ja liikus kiirelt ka $48,80 peal ära, aga kukkus sealt ka sama kiiresti alla ning nüüd kaupleb $47,60 peal. Aktsiat oli keeruline või isegi võimatu kaubelda, sest esiteks oli 3% ülevalt aktsiat juba riskantne osta ja teiseks suurendas riski ka turg, mis avanemisel samuti alla tuli.

WTW on küll väga ilusti liikunud ning kaupleb hetkel $37,50 kandis, 5,5% plusspoolel. Kuid ka selle aktsiaga kauplemine eeldas riskialtimat käitumist, sest osta tuli seda samuti üle 3% kõrgemalt. Antud juhul oleks risk ennast ka õigustanud, aga oleks võinud ka nii minna nagu RHT-ga.

32
Rep Hoyer says House Dems not part of tax deal; says he doesnt like some of the things in the tax deal - CNBC
33
Smithfield Foods (SFD) upgraded before the open to Buy from Underperform at BofA/Merrill - tgt raised to $21 from $16
Ettevõte avaldab kvartalitulemused neljapäeva 09.12 hommikul, lisaks on keegi novembri keskpaigas ka call optsioonides suurtemate kogustega bid poolel olnud:
SFD Jan11 20 calls (volume: 22.7K, open int: 3.0K, implied vol: ~45%, prev day implied vol: 39%) -- co is confirmed to report earnings Dec 9 before the open
34
EURUSD on tänase tõusu käest andnud ja kaupleb hetkel 1,3295 juures. USDCAD, AUDUSD ja NZDUSD samuti.
35
$32 bln 3-yr Note Auction Results: 0.862% (Expected 0.841%); Bid/Cover 2.91x (Prior 3.26x, 10-auction avg 3.15x); Indirect Bidders 36.7% (Prior 35.00%, 10-auction avg 44.02%)
36
President Obama says he will fight to end the high-end tax cuts when they expire in two years
37
October Consumer Credit +$3.4 bln vs -$2.5 bln Briefing.com consensus; September revised to +$1.2 bln from +2.1 bln
38
Amazon.com updates Kindle for the Web; customers can read full text of Kindle books in their web browser - no download or installation required
39
Ehk kui oled Amazonist ostnud raamatu, siis Amazoni serverisse jääb selle kohta märge ja seetõttu saad oma raamatuid lugeda ka niisama veebi abil?
40
VVUS kaupleb OREX panel`i hääletuse ootuses juba 10% plusspoolel.