Killer Confidence
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
8/7/2008 8:13 AM EDT
What men want is not knowledge, but certainty.
--Bertrand Russell
The market has now enjoyed a couple of positive days and the technical conditions are improved, but it is important not to forget the many issues that are likely to keep this market struggling. The market is never easy, but there are times when it is more challenging than others -- now is such a time.
The constant predictions and breathless proclamations by Wall Street professions and market pundits add to the problems of navigating the market. They always sound so confident that they know how things will play out, and we can feel downright foolish when we doubt them and they turn out to be right for a few days.
This is not a market environment that warrants great confidence and certainty. Even when we rally over the course of a couple of days, it isn't nearly as easy as it looks, as the stocks that lead and lag completely reverse from one day to the next.
We have a particularly good example this morning of how confusing this market can be. Financials are weak after a good run on a poor report from AIG (AIG) , oils are rallying as crude finds support, and the dollar weakens and same-store retail sales are coming in weaker than expected. Being confident and certain when we have these sorts of shifts nearly every day is just downright foolish.
The major positive right now is that there is some better technical action taking place. The indices have been bouncing since mid-July and have been able to make some higher highs. The Nasdaq was particularly strong yesterday and seems to have sucked in some cash from the sidelines.
The big question is whether this is just another bear-market bounce or whether we have really seen a meaningful low. Being confident of anything at this point is dangerous, but it is helpful to have a working thesis in mind. I continue to stick with the contention that we are still in a bear market and are enjoying nothing more than a temporary respite.
The bull case here is that banks have priced in the worst and have seen the lows, and that the broad market has already discounted the fact that the economy is going to stumble along. The bulls have made similar arguments for over a year now and have been proved wrong each time. I see little to convince me that they will be right this time.
Throw in seasonal weakness, some market complacency and overhead resistance in the technical patterns, and I don't see a reason to jump on the bull-market train. I'll be happy to be proved wrong, but the bulls have plenty of hurdles to jump before we can be more optimistic.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance/same store sales: ENG +11.6%, NFS +10.7% (also Nationwide Mutual Insurance Co and Nationwide Financial Services reach agreement to combine in $2.4 bln transaction), CAR +9.3%, GIVN +8.6%, LMIA +8.0% (light volume), DCGN +7.7% (light volume), COGO +7.4%, AXA +6.5% (light volume), EGLE +6.1%, TMTA +5.7%, URS +5.2%, VRNM +5.1%, PRXL +5.1%, XIDE +4.8%, JCP +4.8%, AAP +4.7%, BAGL +4.3%, SUN +4.0%, HAYN +3.7%, CBEY +3.2% (also upgraded to Buy at Merriman and upgraded to Overweight at JPMorgan), BCS +2.6%, RIO +1.9%, XRM +1.9% (light volume), SINA +1.5%... Select European financials trading higher following BCS and AXA qtr results: UBS +4.2%, LYG +3.5%, DB +2.7%... Other news: SYNM +10.5% (still checking), VE +6.2% (soars on plan to cut costs, sell assets - Bloomberg.com), KBR +4.1% (announces a repurchase program of up to 5% of its outstanding common stock; declares $0.05 quarterly cash dividend), RAME +4.0% (still checking), RTP +1.6% and BP +1.3% (still checking)... Analyst comments: STO +3.2% (hearing upgraded to Overweight at HSBC), GNA +2.7% (upgraded to Buy at KeyBanc), RIG +1.6% (upgraded to Buy at Stifel Nicolaus), WATG +1.4% (upgraded to Buy at Merriman), FTI +1.0% (upgraded to Add from Neutral at Capital One Southcoast).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance/same store sales: MCGC -28.0%, DITC -18.9%, KG -16.7%, STV -16.3%, VRSN -14.4% (also downgraded to Perform at Oppenheimer), MEND -11.4%, BBI -9.1%, AIG -7.7% (also downgraded to Market Perform at FBR), MSSR -7.6%, CTRN -7.5% (also downgraded to Neutral at Piper), IMAX -7.3%, CECO -7.3%, AEG -7.1%, ALNY -6.2%, MLM -5.8%, SVNT -4.4%, AEO -4.0%, ALG -3.8% (light volume), HOTT -3.8% (also downgraded to Neutral at Piper), PLCE -3.8%, CAH -3.7%, DYN -3.2%, WMT -2.9%, TGT -2.1%, FRZ -2.0% (also WSJ reports Collusion inquiry targets ice companies), CPHL -2.0% (also downgraded to Neutral at Piper Jaffray), SUNH -1.3%... Select airline/cruise-related names showing weakness with crude higher: AMR -12.4%, NWA -6.8%, LCC -6.6%, CEA -5.7%, JBLU -5.5%, CAL -5.0%, UAUA -5.0%, CCL -2.1%, RCL -1.7%,... Select financial names trading modestly lower: LEH -3.2%, COF -2.9%, WB -2.9%, WM -2.6%, MER -2.5%, MS -2.3%, C -2.2%, WFC -2.0%, BAC -1.9%, JPM -1.8%, ING -1.2%, HBC -1.1% (denies new deadline for $6.3 billion KEB deal - Reuters.com)... Other news: SMI -6.5% (shares fall on concern competition may increase - Bloomberg.com), ACOR -6.4% (prices a 4 mln share common stock offering at $28.50/share), INCY -4.9% (announces the closing of its public offering of 12,075,000 shares at a price of $9.00 per share), MEE -1.4% (agrees to sell 3.8 mln shares of its common stock at a public offering price of $61.50 per share), BIDU -1.4% and GOOG -1.0% (still checking)... Analyst comments: LL -2.7% (downgraded to Neutral at BofA), EW -2.4% (downgraded to Underweight at JPMorgan), DPL -2.2% (downgraded to Underperform at Merrill), SIVB -1.6% (downgraded to Market Perform at Keefe Bruyette), PKX -1.3% (downgraded to Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley), EIX -1.1% (downgraded to Underperform at Merrill).
Lisaks majanduskasvu kommentaaridele, mõjutavad eurot Trichet kommentaarid rahapakkumise kohta. Tricheti esialgsel hinnangul on rahapakkumise kasv olnud jõuline. Alles praegu on esialgseid märke M1 rahapakkumise kasvu vähenemisest. Rahapakkumise kasvu näitab ka Euroopa laenumahtude suurenemise graafik:
Euroopa ja Aasia indeksid:
Saksamaa DAX +0.47%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +0.86%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 +0.25%
Hispaania IBEX 35 +0.10%
Venemaa MICEX +1.83%
Poola WIG -1.05%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 -0.98%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng +0.70
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +0.31%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -0.61%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -0.93%
Tai Set 50 +5.24%
India Sensex +0.29%
Oodatust parem data.
June Pending Home Sales +5.3% vs -1.0% consensus, prior revised to -4.9% from -4.7%.
June Pending Home Sales +5.3% vs -1.0% consensus, prior revised to -4.9% from -4.7%.
Ehitajad toetavad turgu ilusa pending home sales numbri peale ning tehnoloogiasektor on jällegi näitamas tugevust. Kui raske on täna finants???
U.S. Chain same store sales up 2.6% on year in July vs June's revised +4.2%, according to the ICSC
Turg üritab ehitajate ja tehnoloogia najal ülespoole rallida, kuid finants ikka väga raske (AIG ja C). Turgu toetab toornafta futuuride nulli langemine. Nafta hetkel +0.25 $118.88 barrel tasemel.
Finantssektorit langetab ka Citi kohtujuhutum:
Aug. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Citigroup Inc., the largest U.S. bank by assets, agreed to buy back or help clients unload $19.5 billion in auction-rate securities and pay a $100 million fine to settle U.S. regulatory claims it improperly saddled customers with untradeable bonds.
Citi näitel võivad sama teha ka näiteks HSBC, UBS ja Merrill.
Aug. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Citigroup Inc., the largest U.S. bank by assets, agreed to buy back or help clients unload $19.5 billion in auction-rate securities and pay a $100 million fine to settle U.S. regulatory claims it improperly saddled customers with untradeable bonds.
Citi näitel võivad sama teha ka näiteks HSBC, UBS ja Merrill.
Turgudele sai finantssektor siiski liiga raskeks ankruks ning hetkel korralik müügisurve juba kõikides sektorites.