Mõned teemad tänaseks päevaks:
- Merrill Lynch tõstis täna hommikul Pfizeri (PFE) hinnasihi varasema $36 pealt $40 peale. Analüütikute sõnul väärib PFE sektorist kõrgemat valuatsiooni. Peamised põhjused selleks on: 1) liidripositsioon turul 2) tulemuste hea ennustatavus 3) keskmisest suurem kasvupotentsiaal
Lisaks sellele näevad Merrilli analüütikud 2004. aastal aktsiate hinda pot. tõstvaid sündmusi: 1) Jaanuaris tehtavad 2004. aasta prognoosid 2) Tulevaste ravimite promo (võimalik, et Juunis 2004, kui on firma investorite päev 3) mõned võimalikult pos. lõpuga patendivaidlused geneerikutega.
Viimasel ajal on kuulda olnud, et paljud fondid, mis pikka aega ei omanud farmat on hakanud muid aktsiaid (majaehitajaid jne) müüma, et osta selliseid firmasid nagu SGP, PFE, ning BMY.
- Bernstein tõstab täna hommikul Inteli (INTC) reitingu Outperform peale varasema Market Perform pealt. Hinnasihiks $42. Nende arvates peaks 2004. aasta esimene poolt tulema väga tugev. Kasumiprognoosid 2004. aastaks tõstetakse analüütikute konsensusest veidi kõrgemale.
- Circuit City (CC) müük võrreldes üleeelmise (2002/2003) aasta detsembriga kukkus 2%. Tulemuseks 7-8% kukkumine aktsiate turuväärtuses. $8-9 kandis on aktsiad fundamentaalselt üpriski soodsad. Lähemalt on firmast kirjutatud ka LHV Pro all.
- Warnaco (WRNC) teatas, et firma 66 aastane juhatuse esimehe nõunik on surnud. Siiski ei ole ilmselt tegemist väga suure löögiga firma jaoks. Aktsiate hinda see uudis eriti liigutada ei tohiks.
- JP Morgan tõstis Nokia (NOK) reitingu Neutraalse pealt Overweight peale. Hinnasihiks €18. Aktsia on eelturul 3% plussis.
- Gary B. Smith:
- RevShark:
Market participants always need to be watching for potential dangers, but there are times when it is prudent to be even more vigilant than usual. Now is one of those times.
The market certainly started the year with a bang. We have had tremendous momentum, and anticipating a top in this market has been a very dangerous enterprise. There is a great amount of cash out there looking for a place to go, and that liquidity is helping to keep this market aloft.
Two things are causing me to be increasingly attuned for signs of trouble. First is that action in early January tends to be quite volatile. There are a number of unusual circumstances at work as we start a new year, such as retirement plan contributions, which can cause some quick swings as they dissipate.
Also, many investors simply have a different mindset as the new year kicks off. Some want some quick gains so they chase things, while others do some buying to position themselves for the long haul. The bias tends to be toward putting money to work rather than taking a cautious approach.
The bottom line is that the factors that drive strength in early January simply can't be trusted to last. We certainly have to respect the dynamics at work and go along for the ride, but we have to be wary that they will disappear just as quickly as they commenced.
The second reason for caution is much easier to understand. Simply look at the charts of the major indices, especially the DJIA. They are clearly extended. The DJIA has gone straight up since November 21. There are some big profits to protect, and once profit-taking kicks in it can easily gather some momentum. The risk of a pullback is very high. That doesn't mean we will crash, but we badly need a rest.
The Nasdaq is not nearly as extended as the DJIA, but it is overbought. Yesterday we saw pretty heavy rotation out of the cyclicals and industrial stocks and into technology stocks and some momentum favorites. The Chinese industrial stocks were hit particularly hard as investors tried to find less extended alternatives.
I'm looking for the rotation back into technology stocks to continue as the liquidity that is sloshing around looks for a place to go. However, the technology stocks will very quickly become extended themselves after some of the big gains we saw yesterday. There seems to be fairly positive news flow supporting these stocks right now, but folks know that many of these stocks are at extreme levels and they will be quick to sell if they begin to weaken.
My game plan is to continue to play long side momentum, especially in technology stocks where I see it, but keep stops tight and be less aggressive chasing extended stocks. I'm also building a hedge with short positions in the QQQ and DIA. I'm going to emphasize the DIA more than the QQQ simply because that chart is much more extended.
We are at a particularly tricky juncture right now. There are factors at work that can keep this momentum going, but we clearly are extended and need a rest. In the early going, we have some slight weakness. The dollar continues to struggle, but made some minor gains against the Euro overnight. Asian markets were mixed with auto stocks takings some hits. European stocks were weak with oil stocks putting some pressure on the markets.
Stay particularly vigilant right now. The chances of a sharp pullback are very high. We are walking the high wire. The rewards can be great if we successfully navigate our way, but the risks are very high if we stumble.
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