Majade müügistatistika koha pealt on päris palju pead murtud. 18. jaanuaril avaldatud uute majade ehituste arv(Housing Starts) 1642K oli suurem kui oodati ning samuti ületati eelmise kuu 1572K näitu. Seda tõlgendati kui positiivset sündmuste käiku majade ehituse ning kinnisvaraturul ning ellu kerkisid lootused, et ehk on põhi majadeturul saavutatud. Eile ilmus aga Wall Street Journalis väga hea artikkel sarnastel teemadel, mis selle teesi pooldajaid peaks pisut jahutama.
Nimelt on olemas üks üpriski vähejälgitud näitaja - homeowner vacancy rate. See näitab, kui palju on müügis maju, kus omanik ise reaalselt sees ei ela. Antud näitaja on jõudnud viimase 40 aasta rekordtasemele, mil seda üldse kirja panema hakati. Just viimasel aastal on tõus olnud eriti peadpööritav liikudes 2.0% pealt 2.7%ni ning 2006. aasta lõpus oli USAs müügis ca 2.1 miljonit tühja maja. Olgu ka mainitud, et enne 2006. aastat polnud see number kunagi üle 2% liikunud.
Väljavõtted antud artiklist:
The report, which usually gets little attention, sparked fresh concerns about the housing market. Goldman Sachs economist Jan Hatzius concluded in a report last Monday that rising vacancies signal that excess housing supply continues to grow -- and that new construction has to decline further this year, even after a 13% decline in new home starts in 2006.
Meantime, J.P. Morgan economist Haseeb Ahmed said the overhang of vacant housing stock could erode existing home values as sellers slash prices to move their vacant properties. Economists fear that many vacant homes are owned by speculators who are stuck with investment properties that they can't sell and may be under increasing pressure to drop their prices. "We are concerned that there could be downward pressure on prices for awhile," Mr. Ahmed says.
Such worries could cloud hopes for a swift housing rebound. Those hopes have been bolstered recently by signs that the market may be stabilizing. Sales, which fell sharply through much of last year, have leveled off in many metropolitan areas and mortgage applications have been rising.
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Another factor that may have contributed to the high vacancies, says Mr. Hatzius of Goldman: newly constructed homes that are finished and awaiting occupants, but haven't sold.
The vacancy indicator may help distinguish between the sellers who have casually listed their house on the market to see what price they can fetch, versus sellers who are under real pressure to sell. The owner of a vacant home -- who may be squeezed by mortgage payments for the vacant home as well as a current residence -- could be more willing to drop the price to minimize the cost, than a homeowner who lives in the home and doesn't have to sell.
Jon Estridge, 34 years old, owned a pair of investment homes in Virginia that sat empty for several months last year. When the market slowed, it was difficult not only to find buyers, but also to find tenants who would pay enough rent to cover his mortgages. "It eats you alive," said Mr. Estridge, who works for the federal government. "The market is going down, and you are paying a mortgage."
He eventually sold one home last spring, after dropping the price. He bought the property for $395,000 and sold for about $35,000 less. The other home sold for $260,000 in late August after he dropped the price by about $30,000.
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What's troubling is that speculators may not act like typical home sellers. When they sell their vacant home in a down market, they don't necessarily purchase another home. By contrast, people selling the homes they live in will most often buy another house -- thus fueling a healthy market of buying and selling.
Not surprisingly, buildings with five or more units -- which include condos that were magnets for speculators -- had the highest rate of vacancy. The vacancy rate among these units rose to 11% in the fourth quarter from 7% in the first quarter. For single-family homes, the vacancy rate rose to 2.3% in the fourth quarter from 1.8% in the first quarter.
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