Mõned teemad tänaseks päevaks:
- Cisco tulemused tulid paremad isegi üpris optimistlike analüütikute ootustest. Firma juhi John Chambersi sõnul tunnevad kliendid ennast märksa paremini kui veel 3 kuu eest. August oli olnud väga tugev kuu, september veidi nõrgem ning oktoober jällegi väga hea. Cisco ostis selle kvartali jooksul tagasi $2 mld eest oma aktsiaid keskmise hinnaga $19.55. Siiani on üldse kokku ostetud $9.8 mld eest aktsiaid keskmise hinnaga $15.11. Hetkel on veel plaanis osta $10.2 mld eest lisa.
Analüütikute arvates võiks see $160 mld turuväärtusega ettevõte järgmisel (2005) aastal genereerida $23-24 mld käivet ning seda ülikõrgete marginaalide juures.
Täna hommikul teatas Piper Jaffray, et tõstab CSCO reitingu Mkt Perfrom peale Outperform peale. Hinnasihiks $28 varasema $22 asemel.
Tulemus järelturul:
Mis saab edasi? Tõenäoliselt liigub turg CSCO toel nüüd veidi veel üles ning siis tuleb korrektsioon. Mäletate veel Intelit (INTC)?
- VeriSign (VRSN)-i graafikut olete vaadanud?
- ATI Tech (ATYT) ning Korea tehnoloogiahiid Samsung teatasid, et viimane hakkab oma uue generatsiooni televiisorites kasutama ATI tehnoloogiat.
- Legg Mason tõstab täna hommikul Priceline (PCLN) reitingu Hoia pealt Osta peale. Priceline avaldas teisipäeva õhtul tulemused, mille järel aktsia kukkus kolmapäeval 26%. Legg Masoni arvates kauplevad PCLN-i aktsiad 20% madalama valuatsiooni juures võrrelde konkurendi IACI-ga. Samas aga peaksid valuatsioonid analüütikute arvates olema võrdsed, kuna PCLN on kasumit suutnud konkurendist kiiremini kasvatada.
- Barrons toob välja, et oktoobris müüsid insaiderid iga aktsiate ostmiseks kulutatud dollari kohta $59 väärtuses aktsiad. Tegemist on viimase 10 aasta kõrgeima numbriga. Müüginumber on viimased 6 kuud järjest olnud 20x kõrgem ostunumbrist. Tegemist on väga karuse indikaatoriga.
Siiski on ka üksikuid kindlameelseid ostjaid. Seda eelkõige just nö. vana majanduse hulgas. Teras, kemikaalid, toiduained ning energia. Selliste firmade nagu CAG, PNR ja SBP juhtkonnad on olnud oma aktsiaid ostmas. Tasub ilmselt lähemat uurimist.
- Initial Claims 348k vs 380k consensus; Productivity 8.1% vs 8.5% consensus
Üllatavalt head tööturu numbrid tekitasid hetkeks elevuse ning siis keeras turg sunna alla.
- Gary B. Smith:
- ReVshark
In my early days of trading one of my biggest mistakes was constantly being worried about a 1987-type crash. Fear that I would be caught in a sudden meltdown of giant proportions with no chance of escape was always in the back of my mind. At certain times when feeling particularly paranoid I would dump good positions just to protect myself from the crash I was dreaming about at night.
One day, while on the verge of dumping positions again based on fuzzy fears of a crash, I spent some time studying what had happened in the past when I let my fears dominate my thinking. It became quite clear that I had lost far more money worrying about the big one-day crash than I ever would have lost in an actual crash. Giving in to my thoughtless caution and taking myself out of good positions was hurting my trading substantially.
When I went back and studied some of the big crashes, particular the 1987 meltdown, it was fairly clear that there generally were some pretty good technical warning signs before we saw an epic meltdown. I was prone to exercise my fits of caution at times when the market had been particularly strong, which turned out not to be the time when crashes tended to occur. Historically, crashes didn't occur when the market was close to a top and very strong. They came after a period of struggle and some poor technical action. If I simply heeded the technical signs, it was very unlikely I would ever be caught in a crash unless it was caused by some outside event like 9/11.
Of course, you don't need a giant crash to hurt your performance; even a mild pullback can inflict a hefty dose of pain. However, selling because of niggling fears about a one-day crash is very likely to be a major mistake. Be cautious, but make sure your fears are based on facts and not some murky concerns about crashes.
Despite the strong earnings report from Cisco (CSCO:Nasdaq) last night, the buyers are exhibiting a fair amount of caution so far this morning. Japan took a hit overnight and the Bank of England raised interest rates a quarter point, which helped keep European markets mixed. Interestingly housing stocks in the U.S. continued to move up strongly despite clear signs that interest rates were likely to rise internationally. It will be interesting to watch that sector today on the BOE interest rate news.
An interest rate increase is a mixed bag for the market. On the one hand it signals that the economy is improving and earnings are likely to improve. It also makes bonds less desirable as their prices start to fall, and folks become more interested in equities. On the other hand, increased interest rates hurt businesses and consumers who borrow. Consumers can't continue to refinance their homes to extract cash and business have to pay more to carry their debt.
The monthly unemployment and payroll reports that are due tomorrow morning are attracting a lot of attention and are likely to be major market movers. We have the weekly unemployment data today as well as productivity numbers. Those reports should help set the early tone.
The bulls did a nice job of battling back from weakness yesterday. Will they find strength again as the day wears on? Technically we are sitting at a juncture where we could see some pretty good volatility without having any particular impact on the bigger picture.
The key to this market continues to be the dip buyers. When their tenacity starts to wane, that is when we have to start worrying.
Good luck and go get 'em.
sB
