Sitting in Cash Is the Best Position
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
9/5/2008 9:07 AM EDT
The greatest misfortune of all is not to be able to bear misfortune.
--Bias of Priene
On Thursday, we saw some of the ugliest action of the year, and the mood is decidedly negative this morning as we await the important jobs report. Despite this gloomy atmosphere, investors who have been defensive and are holding a lot of cash should be feeling pretty good. This sort of poor action is what ultimately creates the best opportunities, and if you are prepared, the chances to profit are high.
Unfortunately for the folks who have ignored the charts and have continually called for a market bottom, this is very painful. If you are holding almost anything, you are suffering losses. The market is at one of those junctures where there are no safe havens, and the only salve for the wounds is to hope that a rebound is coming soon.
If you are holding high levels of cash, you are in good shape. You simply need to be patient and wait for charts to develop and opportunities to arise. If you are still holding a lot of long positions, your choices are much more difficult. Where people tend to get in trouble is to sit and do nothing. They freeze up and keep on hoping that things will rebound.
At some point things WILL rebound, but it may occur from much lower levels that even getting back to where we are now may be a difficult task. A lot of people make the mistake of thinking that the stocks they hold now will be the best ones to make up the losses those stocks have produced. That is seldom the case. You are much more likely to recoup losses in different stocks. Don't be afraid to do some selling, even if it means taking some big losses. You might try to catch an oversold bounce, but clearing out some inventory can be a very liberating experience. Just make sure you are ready to eventually rebuy.
The jobs report is hitting, and the numbers are very poor. Revisions of prior months are particularly poor, and it is looking more and more like we are mired in a recession.
We are getting a strong negative reaction to the numbers. However this market is already down substantial and is technically oversold so some sort of bounce may not be far off as some panic sets in. I wouldn't rush to buy, but this is a sea of negativity and is the sort of setup from which a big bounce eventually emerges.
This market is now badly broken, and strength will likely be greeted with some selling, but you can be sure that the bottom fishers are going to try sooner or later, although there success may be limited.
Fasten on your seatbelt and adjust your trading helmet. This is going to be a bumpy ride.
--------------------------
Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: ZQK +12.7%, ADCT +7.5% (also announces share repurchase program of up to $150 mln), ACET +4.6%... Other news: SNDK +24.1% (Samsung mulling options regarding SanDisk - Reuters), UST +20.4% (Altria said to be in talks with UST - NY Times), HOKU +15.3% (HOKU Scientific and Solargiga sign $455 mln polysilicon supply contract; also announces realignment of polysilicon capacity; outlines financing plan), SPNC +7.8% (modestly rebounding after yesterday's ~40% drop; confirms federal investigation).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: CAE -9.3%, SWHC -5.2%... Select mortgage/financial names trading lower following ratings changes and reports of tightened ECB rules on collateral: AIB -6.3% (downgraded to Hold at Deutsche Bank), FNM -5.6%, FRE -5.5%, MER -5.4% (cut to Sell From Neutral by Goldman Sachs -DJ), IRE -5.4%, MBI -5.2%, PMI -5.1%, ABK -4.7%, WM -3.2%, BCS -3.0%, UBS -2.8%, WFC -1.9%, JPM -1.7%, GS -1.3%... Select communications equipment/tech related stocks showing weakness following NOK market-share guidance and commentary: NOK -11.3% (lowers its Q3 2008 mobile device market share outlook), STM -4.5% (downgraded to Sell at UBS), MOT -4.2%, RIMM -3.9%, QCOM -3.2%, ERIC -2.9%, ALU -2.6%, AAPL -1.9%... Select oil/gas names trading lower with oil moderately lower: REP -4.6%, STO -3.6%, RDS.A -3.1%, TOT -2.6%, E -2.4%... Select drybulk shippers trading lower after the Baltic Dry Index fell 211 points to close at 5,663 overnight: FRO -4.9%, EXM -2.9%, DRYS -2.9%, DSX -2.0%... Other news: FII -8.0% (trading ex-dividend)... Analyst comments: AMD -4.1% (downgraded to Sell at Merrill), AIG -3.9% (downgraded to Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley), PETM -3.5% (downgraded to Neutral at BofA), ANF -2.9% (downgraded to Sell at Citigroup), CIEN -1.9% (downgraded to Neutral at Merrill), SWY -1.8% (downgraded to Underweight at Morgan Stanley).
Tegelikult siin on teine tegur veel. JPMorgan teatas värskelt, et kogu mobiiltelefonide turu maht võib 3. kvartalil jääda ootustele alla. Kui see nii juhtub ja sisse arvestada veel Nokia lubatust väiksem turuosa, võib see investoreid Q3 tulemuste osas täiendavalt hirmutada küll ja määramatust lisada.
First Hour Sector Strength:
Gold- GLD +1.3%, Livestock Commodities- COW +0.20%, Cons Stpl- XLP +0.10%
First Hour Sector Weakness:
Solar Power- TAN -3.7%, KWT -3.1%, Homebuilders- XHB -4.3%, Metals/Mining- XME -3.9%, Base Metals- DBB -3.2%, Steel- SLX -3.3%, Coal- KOL -3.3%, Ag/Chem- MOO -2.8%, Materials- IYM -2.3%, XLB -2.2%
DRYS teistkordselt juba välja stopitud ning LEH-ist samuti, hetkel veel positsioon AIG-s alles.
Mulle tundub, et kõige commodit-related müük on liiale läinud. See pole enam fundamentaalsetel põhjustel, see on forseeritud müük margin callide jms tõttu. Tulemas on nädalavahetus ja ma arvan, et kahte vaba päeva kasutatakse selleks, et mingeid lahendusi leida otse turgu tampimise asemel - otsitakse ostjaid suurtele pakkidele, mängitakse golfi ja püütakse midagi välja mõelda. Ühesõnaga, ootaks järgmiseks nädalaks commoditytega seotud asjadele bounce'i.
Kuna ma võin väga vabalt siiski eksida ja müük võib veel jaburamaks minna, siis seekord otsustasin panustada callidega - risk limiteeritud, upside mitte. Valikusse jäid:
AKS $37.5 sept callid. Hinnaks sain $2.55, praegu juba kõrgemal. Ilmselt päeva peale saab veel odavamat hinda. AKS on üks parimaid liikujaid ja alatine ülevõtukandidaat, kui bounce tuleb, siis on see esirinnas.
BUCY $50 sept callid. Maksin $3.10 nende eest, praegu saaks ka odavamalt. BUCY oli oma majandustulemused juba varem ära öelnud, kuid üleüldine müük ja JOYG, TEX nõrgad numbrid on selle ka alla toonud. Aga mõne päevaga ca 30% kukkuda sisuliselt ilma uudisteta.. tundub ülepingutatuna.
Kogused muidugi sellised, et valmis kõike kaotama - see oht on optsioonide puhul alati.
Kuna ma võin väga vabalt siiski eksida ja müük võib veel jaburamaks minna, siis seekord otsustasin panustada callidega - risk limiteeritud, upside mitte. Valikusse jäid:
AKS $37.5 sept callid. Hinnaks sain $2.55, praegu juba kõrgemal. Ilmselt päeva peale saab veel odavamat hinda. AKS on üks parimaid liikujaid ja alatine ülevõtukandidaat, kui bounce tuleb, siis on see esirinnas.
BUCY $50 sept callid. Maksin $3.10 nende eest, praegu saaks ka odavamalt. BUCY oli oma majandustulemused juba varem ära öelnud, kuid üleüldine müük ja JOYG, TEX nõrgad numbrid on selle ka alla toonud. Aga mõne päevaga ca 30% kukkuda sisuliselt ilma uudisteta.. tundub ülepingutatuna.
Kogused muidugi sellised, et valmis kõike kaotama - see oht on optsioonide puhul alati.
White House says no need now for new economic stimulus - DJ
Turg tibake ülespoole liikunud.
Turg tibake ülespoole liikunud.
Ahjaa, alusvara valikuks on tegelikult võimalusi palju, näiteks vaatasin veel WLT, FTI, NUE, X, FSLR, DRYS ja teisigi. Püüdsin lihtsalt välja valida need, mille bounce võiks kõige jõulisem olla - sellest loogikast lähtudes, et mida ma ostaks esmaspäeva hommikul, kui USO jms üleval on.
Võtsin natuke Quadra Miningut ja TC.
PS Näiteks nafta ise on vaikselt taastunud juba tunnikese, aga aktsiad ikka põhjade juures - müügisurve on just aktsiates järelikult. Samas on lõpuks tekkinud piisavalt ostjaid, et see müügisurve välja kannatada. Enam ei ole sellist panic sellingu tunnet nagu eile oli, kus vahetpidamatult ainult bididesse müüdigi. Reedene päev ka muidugi, aga ei ole enam sellist meeleheite lõhna.
test
Wow, Enekil on muljetavaldavad head kontaktid, kui tal 9.27am või isegi ennem Merrilli full kommentaar käes oli. Minu allikatest ei tulnud see enne 9.29 ja sedagi üldises toonis. Jim, millal sul oli? :)
XLE võiks samuti lähiajal pakkuda põrget, kuna päris tugevalt alla müüdud viimaste päevadega.
(LEH) Lehman Brothers: Blackstone, KKR eye LEH real estate and asset mgmt assets, according to sources - Reuters
Aktsia rallinud juba +3% tõusu $15.65 tasemele.
Aktsia rallinud juba +3% tõusu $15.65 tasemele.
Street, umbes samal ajal kui sina ja samuti üldiselt.
Enek, mis su AOL on?
Enek, mis su AOL on?
Midday Sector Strength:
Regional Banks- RKH +1.4%, Commercial Banks- KBE +1.2%, Semis- SMH +0.90%, IGW +0.60%, Finance- XLF +0.70%, Internet HLDRS- HHH +0.80%
Midday Sector Weakness:
Silver- SLV -4.4%, Base Metals- DBB -3.3%, Ags.- DBA -2.9%, Solar Power- TAN -3.3%, KWT -2.8%, Steel- SLX -2.7%, Metals/Minig- XME -2.6%, Homebuilders- XHB -2.2%, Commodities- GSG -2.1%
(JBLU) Jetblue Airways reports August traffic
Co reported today that its traffic in August increased 1.9% from August 2007, on a capacity increase of 1.2%. Load factor for August 2008 was 87.1%, an increase of 0.7 points from August 2007. JetBlue's preliminary completion factor was 96.8% and its on-time (1) performance was 64.7%. JetBlue's preliminary passenger revenue per available seat mile for the month of August increased 12% year over year.
Aktsia kaupleb $.15 tasemel, -0.49% languses
Co reported today that its traffic in August increased 1.9% from August 2007, on a capacity increase of 1.2%. Load factor for August 2008 was 87.1%, an increase of 0.7 points from August 2007. JetBlue's preliminary completion factor was 96.8% and its on-time (1) performance was 64.7%. JetBlue's preliminary passenger revenue per available seat mile for the month of August increased 12% year over year.
Aktsia kaupleb $.15 tasemel, -0.49% languses
Müün veidi NOK 20.49-.59 ja sealt edasi iga 10c tagant kuni 21 tasemeni. Keskmiseks jäigi 20.17.
AOL: enek5789
Enek, lisasin listi, saad mu teksti kätte?
jah sain, ma olin eemal, sorry.