Deutsche lowering ests on LEH to reflect higher than expected hedging losses; liquidity not an issue
Net-net, firm feels that Lehman is not Bear. Liquidity is not a major issue while equity risk remains but does not seem outsized.
Suht vaikne hommik.
Tooks välja Goldman Sachsi Pfizeri (PFE) reitingualanduse Neutrali peale (from Buy). Hinnasiht 22 peale.
Hetkel kaupleb 18.70 kandis eelturul. Tunde järgi ütleks, et peaks siit mingi 15 senti ikka allapoole tulema mingi aeg.
Tooks välja Goldman Sachsi Pfizeri (PFE) reitingualanduse Neutrali peale (from Buy). Hinnasiht 22 peale.
Hetkel kaupleb 18.70 kandis eelturul. Tunde järgi ütleks, et peaks siit mingi 15 senti ikka allapoole tulema mingi aeg.
tea kas abesiki ja enek on ka täna LEH seljas sõitmas? :)
Hehe...Trichet ütleb otse välja
et järgmisel miitingul 'possible (&probable),' et tõstetakse intresse 25 baasipunkti võrra.
ECB President Trichet says not excluded that ECB could raise rates next month - Bloomberg
*Väike osa liikmetest ei soovinud üldse intresse lähiajal muuta.
*Keskmine osa liikmetest soovisid kohe intresse tõsta.
*Keskmine osa liikmetest soovisid intresse tõsta, aga teha seda hiljem kui täna.
Seega üle hulga aja oli päris vastakaid arvamusi ja tundub, et on jõutud konsensusele, et täna jäeti määrad samaks ja otsustati ette ära juba ka järgmise miitingu otsus ehk +25bipslit... kui just vahepeal maailm kokku ei kuku.
*Keskmine osa liikmetest soovisid kohe intresse tõsta.
*Keskmine osa liikmetest soovisid intresse tõsta, aga teha seda hiljem kui täna.
Seega üle hulga aja oli päris vastakaid arvamusi ja tundub, et on jõutud konsensusele, et täna jäeti määrad samaks ja otsustati ette ära juba ka järgmise miitingu otsus ehk +25bipslit... kui just vahepeal maailm kokku ei kuku.
Trichet - Could move small amount at next meeting
trichet - I don´t say it´s certain, it´s possible to move in July
trichet - I don´t say it´s certain, it´s possible to move in July
LHV foorumisse jõudis info enne kui Briefingusse ;)
Sest me oleme lihtsalt teravamad, Briefingus on macro pool ebaadekvaatne ja and ei ole kohustatud jälgima EZ macrot
:D
Intressifutuurid näitavad nüüd peaaegu 100% seda, et ECB tõstab enne aasta lõppu vähemalt 25 bps. Fikseerige oma kohustused!
:D
Intressifutuurid näitavad nüüd peaaegu 100% seda, et ECB tõstab enne aasta lõppu vähemalt 25 bps. Fikseerige oma kohustused!
Saksamaa DAX +0.44%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -0.26%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 +0.10%
Hispaania IBEX +0.03%
Venemaa MICEX +0.23%
Poola WIG +0.45%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 -0.65%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng +0.55%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -0.55%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +1.94%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -0.27%
Tai Set +0.16%
India Sensex +1.64%
Opportunities Will Come When the Dust Settles
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
6/5/2008 9:29 AM EDT
Change hurts. It makes people insecure, confused and angry. People want things to be the same as they've always been, because that makes life easier.
--Richard Marcinko
The market has had a very confusing mix of action recently, which has made trading very tricky. Not only do we have a big recent divergence between the Nasdaq, and the S&P 500 and DJIA, but there are big intraday swings in the leading sectors and the indices. These big intraday swings have taken place each day this week, with hefty bounces after ugly breakdowns.
In addition, key sectors, such as oil, steel, coal, bulk shipping, solar energy, agriculture, etc., have been strong one day and weak the next. If you have been trying to play the momentum game, you have likely been whipsawed unless your holding period is less than a day.
Despite these swings, the Nasdaq has been showing good relative strength, as big-cap technology stocks, such as Cisco (CSCO) , Qualcomm (QCOM) , Symantec (SYMC) , Altera (ALTR) , Xilinx (XLNX) and Verisign (VRSN) have been attracting buyers.
Some believe that this move into big technology stocks is being driven by institutional investors who are looking for safe havens should inflation increase and the recession continue. You have to wonder how safe these stocks would be, but funds have to park cash somewhere and these stocks offer some stability, if nothing else.
So we have some big-cap technology stocks acting fairly well, while the S&P 500 and DJIA are wrestling with a technical breakdown. This sort of inconsistent action usually doesn't last too long. At some point, one group will pull the other up or down, and the indices will start to move in tandem once again. This raises the question of whether technology can keep running and cause the upside action to broaden out.
My game plan at this point is to trade small and let this sort out further. The market is struggling to undergo some sort of transition. The positive scenario would be another leg up, lead by technology, and the negative scenario would be another leg down lead by financials, retail, oil and some of the recent momentum sectors.
This choppy intraday action, swings in hot sectors and the divergence between the Nasdaq and the senior indices is going to be challenging. It is important to stay open minded and wait and see how things develop. Good opportunities will rise out of the confusion.
We have a positive open on the way, as retail sales are coming in pretty good with Wal-Mart (WMT) leading the way.
-----------------------------
Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance/same store sales: CMTL +6.3%, SBLK +5.4%, ADCT +4.2%, CIEN +3.3%, ANF +3.2%, GEF +2.4%, ULTA +2.3%, WMT +1.4%, DDMX +1.2%, CTR +1.1%, COST +1.0%... M&A news: TRCA +99.5% (Ipsen to acquire Tercica for $9.00/share in cash)... Select airline stocks rebounding boosted by analyst upgrades of select names: UAUA +5.0% (upgraded to Overweight at Lehman and upgraded to Hold at Soleil), NWA +4.9% (upgraded to Overweight at Lehman), DAL +4.3%, CAL +2.4% AMR +2.3% (to reduce capacity, fleet and staffing)... Other news: VNDA +11.3% (Laboratory Corp of America and VNDA announce an exclusive alliance to develop and commercialize a series of diagnostic tests for genetic markers identified by Vanda), UBS +5.2% (to close municipal bond unit as no buyer found, paper says - Bloomberg.com), BTE +4.5% (announces a 25% increase in monthly distributions to $0.25/unit attributable to strength of underlying business and outlook for a continued strong commodity price environment) SWKS +3.3% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), ABK +2.0% (registers 14 mln shares for holders in an S-3ASR), RBS +1.8% (WSJ reports the recent rights offering by Royal Bank of Scotland Group looks likely to succeed; also upgraded to Buy at Citigroup), LEH +1.4% (is also open to big U.S. investors - WSJ)... Analyst upgrades: VRTX +6.0% (upgraded to Outperform at Cowen), ZRAN +5.5% (upgraded to Buy at Lazard Capital), FCFS +5.3% (upgraded to Buy at Roth Capital), NVDA +3.8% (upgraded to Buy at tier 1 firm), TCB +2.7% (upgraded to Buy at Stifel Nicolaus), CCOI +1.7% (upgraded to Outperform at RBC), VMED +1.6% (upgraded to Overweight at Morgan Stanley).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance/same store sales: IDT -23.9%, SFD -5.1%, AEO -3.8%, BLUD -3.3%, ARO -3.1%, WTSLA -2.7%, MATK -2.7%, HOTT -2.5%, PSS -2.4%, DPS -1.7%, GPS -1.3%, ASML -1.2%... Select metals/mining stocks showing weakness with lower spot prices: BHP -2.9%, BBL -2.6%, GOLD -2.6%, AUY -1.9%, GLD -1.2%, KGC -1.2%, AEM -1.0%, GFI -1.0%... Other news: DESC -58.7% (files voluntary Chapter 11 petitions), NOK -1.6% (gets EU approval to buy Norway's Trolltech - Bloomberg.com), NUAN -1.6% (commences public offering of common stock), YHOO -1.0% (MSFT CEO Ballmer says MSFT is not in talks with YHOO about the acquisition of the whole company - Washington Post)... Analyst downgrades: ADBE -4.0% (downgraded to Neutral at Cowen), ATI -2.6% (downgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan), PCAR -2.3% (downgraded to Sell at UBS), DTV -2.3% (downgraded to Neutral at tier 1 firm), HEES -2.1% (downgraded to Neutral at UBS), PH -1.9% (downgraded to Sell at UBS), CRS -1.6% (downgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan), VRSN -1.2% (downgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan), MOT -1.2% (downgraded to Underperform at Oppenheimer).
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
6/5/2008 9:29 AM EDT
Change hurts. It makes people insecure, confused and angry. People want things to be the same as they've always been, because that makes life easier.
--Richard Marcinko
The market has had a very confusing mix of action recently, which has made trading very tricky. Not only do we have a big recent divergence between the Nasdaq, and the S&P 500 and DJIA, but there are big intraday swings in the leading sectors and the indices. These big intraday swings have taken place each day this week, with hefty bounces after ugly breakdowns.
In addition, key sectors, such as oil, steel, coal, bulk shipping, solar energy, agriculture, etc., have been strong one day and weak the next. If you have been trying to play the momentum game, you have likely been whipsawed unless your holding period is less than a day.
Despite these swings, the Nasdaq has been showing good relative strength, as big-cap technology stocks, such as Cisco (CSCO) , Qualcomm (QCOM) , Symantec (SYMC) , Altera (ALTR) , Xilinx (XLNX) and Verisign (VRSN) have been attracting buyers.
Some believe that this move into big technology stocks is being driven by institutional investors who are looking for safe havens should inflation increase and the recession continue. You have to wonder how safe these stocks would be, but funds have to park cash somewhere and these stocks offer some stability, if nothing else.
So we have some big-cap technology stocks acting fairly well, while the S&P 500 and DJIA are wrestling with a technical breakdown. This sort of inconsistent action usually doesn't last too long. At some point, one group will pull the other up or down, and the indices will start to move in tandem once again. This raises the question of whether technology can keep running and cause the upside action to broaden out.
My game plan at this point is to trade small and let this sort out further. The market is struggling to undergo some sort of transition. The positive scenario would be another leg up, lead by technology, and the negative scenario would be another leg down lead by financials, retail, oil and some of the recent momentum sectors.
This choppy intraday action, swings in hot sectors and the divergence between the Nasdaq and the senior indices is going to be challenging. It is important to stay open minded and wait and see how things develop. Good opportunities will rise out of the confusion.
We have a positive open on the way, as retail sales are coming in pretty good with Wal-Mart (WMT) leading the way.
-----------------------------
Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance/same store sales: CMTL +6.3%, SBLK +5.4%, ADCT +4.2%, CIEN +3.3%, ANF +3.2%, GEF +2.4%, ULTA +2.3%, WMT +1.4%, DDMX +1.2%, CTR +1.1%, COST +1.0%... M&A news: TRCA +99.5% (Ipsen to acquire Tercica for $9.00/share in cash)... Select airline stocks rebounding boosted by analyst upgrades of select names: UAUA +5.0% (upgraded to Overweight at Lehman and upgraded to Hold at Soleil), NWA +4.9% (upgraded to Overweight at Lehman), DAL +4.3%, CAL +2.4% AMR +2.3% (to reduce capacity, fleet and staffing)... Other news: VNDA +11.3% (Laboratory Corp of America and VNDA announce an exclusive alliance to develop and commercialize a series of diagnostic tests for genetic markers identified by Vanda), UBS +5.2% (to close municipal bond unit as no buyer found, paper says - Bloomberg.com), BTE +4.5% (announces a 25% increase in monthly distributions to $0.25/unit attributable to strength of underlying business and outlook for a continued strong commodity price environment) SWKS +3.3% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), ABK +2.0% (registers 14 mln shares for holders in an S-3ASR), RBS +1.8% (WSJ reports the recent rights offering by Royal Bank of Scotland Group looks likely to succeed; also upgraded to Buy at Citigroup), LEH +1.4% (is also open to big U.S. investors - WSJ)... Analyst upgrades: VRTX +6.0% (upgraded to Outperform at Cowen), ZRAN +5.5% (upgraded to Buy at Lazard Capital), FCFS +5.3% (upgraded to Buy at Roth Capital), NVDA +3.8% (upgraded to Buy at tier 1 firm), TCB +2.7% (upgraded to Buy at Stifel Nicolaus), CCOI +1.7% (upgraded to Outperform at RBC), VMED +1.6% (upgraded to Overweight at Morgan Stanley).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance/same store sales: IDT -23.9%, SFD -5.1%, AEO -3.8%, BLUD -3.3%, ARO -3.1%, WTSLA -2.7%, MATK -2.7%, HOTT -2.5%, PSS -2.4%, DPS -1.7%, GPS -1.3%, ASML -1.2%... Select metals/mining stocks showing weakness with lower spot prices: BHP -2.9%, BBL -2.6%, GOLD -2.6%, AUY -1.9%, GLD -1.2%, KGC -1.2%, AEM -1.0%, GFI -1.0%... Other news: DESC -58.7% (files voluntary Chapter 11 petitions), NOK -1.6% (gets EU approval to buy Norway's Trolltech - Bloomberg.com), NUAN -1.6% (commences public offering of common stock), YHOO -1.0% (MSFT CEO Ballmer says MSFT is not in talks with YHOO about the acquisition of the whole company - Washington Post)... Analyst downgrades: ADBE -4.0% (downgraded to Neutral at Cowen), ATI -2.6% (downgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan), PCAR -2.3% (downgraded to Sell at UBS), DTV -2.3% (downgraded to Neutral at tier 1 firm), HEES -2.1% (downgraded to Neutral at UBS), PH -1.9% (downgraded to Sell at UBS), CRS -1.6% (downgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan), VRSN -1.2% (downgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan), MOT -1.2% (downgraded to Underperform at Oppenheimer).
Cover & long Pfizer (PFE) .52
Sell Pfizer (PFE) .58
Enek, saatsin meili sulle, tshekka seda.
Solidaarsuset Jimi vastu ja vaadates USO liikumist mulle tundub, etUAL (UAUA) on mõnevõrra overdone siin.
Short 10.28
Short 10.28
Ma natuke lisasin UAUA positsiooni siin. USO võib kukkuda, analüütikud võivad upgrade panna aga ega probleemid ei lahene. Kui keegi siin sektoris pankrotti läheb,siis UAUA on first on my list.
Capital One (COF) säilitab dividendid, mis indikeerib ettevõtte bilansi tugevust. Aktsia +2.95% $48.57 tasemel.
Katsin UAL (UAUA) .14-15 keskmiselt ära.
Suhteliselt ebamugavalt tundsin ennast ikkagi selles shordis suurema kogusega. Panin uuesti väiksema koguse .15 pealt peale, eks näis, kas kannatan valu välja.