Börsipäev 5.detsember

Investeerimine
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Stocks to watch:

AMR Corp.'s (AMR) American Airlines said its November traffic fell 1.1% to 10.7 billion from 10.8 billion revenue passenger miles during the same period in the prior year. The carrier said monthly capacity decreased 3.7% to 13.4 billion available seat miles, while load factor was 79.7% compared with 77.6% in the year-ago period.

Asat Holdings (ASTT) said it now sees fiscal second-quarter revenue of $41 million, and a net loss of $7.8 million, or 6 cents per American Depositary Share. The semiconductor package company said the quarter's revenue results were "slightly below" its original outlook due to an unexpected loss of manufacturing capacity in the back-end of the production line.

BEA Systems (BEAS) said its ongoing internal stock-option review has determined that the actual measurement dates for certain options differ from their recorded dates. BEA said prior financial statements should no longer be relied upon, and the company will restate results.

CMGI (CMGI) reported first-quarter net earnings of $10.3 million, or 2 cents a share, up from $2.13 million, or breakeven on a per-share basis, during the same period a year ago.

Comtech Telecommunications (CMTL) reported first-quarter net earnings of $10.8 million, or 41 cents a share, down 5.6% from $11.5 million, or 43 cents a share, during the year-ago period.

Disney (DIS) agreed to buy NASN, a London-based cable channel that has rights to sports leagues including the NFL and MLB.

First Advantage (FADV) said it expects 2007 per-share earnings of $1.18 to $1.24, including an estimated 14 cents a share impact of expensing share-based compensation.

Ford Motor (F) said it plans to offer $3 billion of senior convertible notes due 2036. The automobile company said it sees using the proceeds for general corporate purposes.

Furniture Brands International (FBN) Broyhill Furniture Industries unit said it's closing the case goods manufacturing facility located in Lenoir, N.C. The company sees charges associated with the closure of $3 million, or 4 cents a share.

Gold Kist (GKIS) relented to Pilgrim's Pride, agreeing to a sweetened $1.1 billion takeover offer that would create the world's largest chicken producer.

Grupo Modelo (GPMCY) said it has reached an agreement for its partner Anheuser-Busch (BUD) to import Modelo's beers into China starting in January.

Health Care Property Investors (HCP) said it has sold 78 skilled nursing facilities for an aggregate of $443.5 million.

Henry Schein (HSIC) cut its fiscal 2006 profit forecast, citing lower-than-expected sales of certain vaccines.

King Pharmaceuticals (KG) said the Food and Drug Administration has approved the company's revised prescribing information for Skelaxin, a muscle relaxant.

Nastech Pharmaceutical (NSTK) said its contract with Procter & Gamble’s (PG) pharmaceuticals unit on an osteoporosis treatment has been amended. The $15 million in payments Nastech had expected to receive in 2006 have been deferred to a $5 million payment on the initiation of an additional phase II clinical study, and a $10 million payment on initiation of a phase III study.

Pall (PLL) said first-quarter net income fell as the company recorded charges for items such as severance costs, of $24.4 million, or 20 cents a share, from $25.1 million, or 20 cents a share, during the same period in the prior year. Before items, quarterly per-share income rose to 29 cents from 20 cents a year ago.

Parkway Properties (PKY) said it now sees per-share funds from operations for 2007 of $3.80 to $4, compared with its prior view of $4 to $4.20. The real estate investment trust estimates that sales and joint ventures during 2007 will result in debt prepayment penalties and expenses of $2.8 million, or 18 cents per share.

Pfizer (PFE) may have to move more aggressively to cut costs and restock the company's pipeline after development of torcetrapib was stopped. The drug was shelved after more people than expected died while taking it in a clinical test.

Priceline.com (PCLN) said Hutchison Whampoa (HUWHF) and Cheung Kong (Holdings) Ltd. sold about 3.8 million shares of Priceline's common stock in an offering underwritten by Goldman Sachs Group.

Retail Ventures (RVI) said it swung to a third-quarter net loss, as the company recorded a $30.6 million charge on the change in fair value of derivative instruments, of $34.1 million, or 72 cents a share. During the same period in the prior year, net income was $56.4 million, or 92 cents a share.

Sirius (SIRI) cut its latest subscriber projection by 200,000, or as much as 6%, underscoring satellite radio's challenge of catching on with the public.

Station Casinos (STN) received a $4.7 billion buyout offer from a management-led group, boosting its shares more than 22%.

Syntax-Brillian (BRLC) said it now expects revenue for the fiscal second quarter to be at or above the high end of its prior outlook of $178 million to $190 million. The digital entertainment products cited "early indications" of retail sell-through over the Thanksgiving weekend.

Toll Brothers (TOL) posted a 44% drop in quarterly net income and the luxury-home builder said its fiscal 2007 profit may decline by as much as 62%.

UAL Corp.'s (UAUA) United Airlines reported that traffic in November rose 2.4% to 9.13 billion revenue passenger miles. Load factor, or the percentage of the plane filled with passengers, fell 0.2 percentage points to 79.7%. Capacity increased 2.7% to 11.5 billion available seat miles.

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Aimar, kuskohast sa selle kopipastesid?
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Shark rõhutab sedakorda, et turuolukord on muutumas üha keerulisemaks. Just siis, kui tundus, et igavestikestev pulliturg on oma otsa lõppemas tuleb ette meil selline päev nagu eile, kus ralli lükkab ümber karude ootused. See kõik tõstab aga turuosaliste pinget ja emotsioone, millel ei tohiks lasta liialt üle keeda.

Neither Bull Nor Bear Is He

By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
12/5/2006 8:50 AM EST
Click here for more stories by Rev Shark

"The sign of an intelligent people is their ability to control their emotions by the application of reason."

-- Marya Mannes

One mistake many people make about the stock market is assuming it is an intelligent and rational beast. In the short term that definitely isn't the case. The market is temperamental and emotional and tends to have a short memory. It can completely forget what caused it to move yesterday or last week as it contemplates the latest develops.

Yesterday and Friday were particularly good illustrations of how mercurial the market can be. On Friday the market looked ready to roll over. Some technical damage had been done, the dip buyers were sitting on the sidelines and the desire to protect profits was starting to kick in. But on Monday the mood had swiftly changed. Mergers and lower oils were the catalyst, and the name of the game once again was to buy and to do it now without hesitation.

These sorts of mood swings are great for investors who have extremely short time frames but it makes it tough if you are trying to look forward a few days. Unless you have perfect timing you either take some quick losses and reposition yourself, or simply hold on, take the pain and hope the trend eventually moves your way.

What often makes trading in a market like this more difficult is that the feelings about where things are headed seem to become much more intense. When we have a crack in the uptend like we did on Friday, many are quick to deem this the beginning of the end of the uptrend. Then when we have a bounceback like we did on Monday, many are quick to proclaim that the never-ending uptrend is back on and that it is straight up from here.

Neither conclusion is likely to be correct, so we need to keep an open mind and try to stay balanced as we contemplate the market swings. I'm doing this by focusing primarily on sector rotation. I am staying long by focusing on sectors that I don't feel are as technical vulnerable while hedging by shorting sectors that I believe are less likely to keep on running. I then continuously adjust as the market evolves and I avoid being either a bull or a bear in a chaotic situation.

We have a softer start this morning as oil is bouncing back and we await some more economic data. Overseas markets were mixed with Asia slightly down and Europe up.
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Miks BIDU hakkas kiiresti tõusma? Kas anti uued hinnasihid?
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Baidu plaanib Jaapanis 2007 otsingumootori kaivitada
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Kas polnud see juba eilehommikune uudis. Praegu näib midagi muud olevat hommikuse tõusu taga.
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Majandusstatistika poole pealt väärib märkimist 3. kvartali uuendatud produktiivsuse tõus +0,2% peale varasemalt 0% pealt ning tööjõukulud tõusid 2.3%, kui varasem näit oli 3.8%. See rahustab pisut palgaga seotud inflatsiooni muresid.

Ülespoole avanevad:

VIFL +98% (up on report of e-Coli outbreak in NJ; also EMRG +29%), DRCT +25% (to be acquired), SCMR +14% (reports OctQ revs above consensus), MITI +11% (amends agreement with Serono; also extends yesterday's 49% move), LAYN +10% (reports OctQ), AXR +8% (reports OctQ), PLL +6% (reports OctQ), CMTL +6.8% (reports OctQ), CN +5.7% (expects to win a 3G licence in December or Q1 -- Reuters), BRLC +5.1% (raises Q1 rev guidance), CENT +4.4% (to be added to S&P 600), DLIA +3.7% (extends yesterday's 10% move), TATTF +3.5% (extends yesterday's 16% move), ISIS +3.2% (receives milestone payment from Merck), NYX +2.3% (regulators do not object to Euronext merger - Reuters), SNY +2.1% (positive Phase 2 data), Under $3: CMGI +7% (reports OctQ).

Allapoole avanevad:

SIRI -6.5% (lowers subscriber guidance; Bear Stearns and Morgan Joseph downgrades; down in sympathy: XMSR -3.5%), JMBA -6.7% (co says it has sold some strawberry smoothies that may have been contaminated with Listeria monocytogenes), SOMX -6% (disappointing clinical data), HSIC -5.4% (guides below consensus), CNQR -5% (reports SepQ), GMRK -5% (announces stock offering), WLT -3.3% (guides lower), F -3% (announces convertibe offering), HOKU -2.9% (lowers EPS guidance), PCLN -2.5% (announces stock offering), FAST -2.7%, HBC -2.3% (warns of slower rev growth), THC -2% (Pru downgrade), GFI -1.9%.

Nafta tugevuse 1 põhjustest:

It is important to note b/c today the UN is meeting again today and comments may come out around lunch time (Iran has said it will use oil as a weapon if the UN puts sanctions on them).
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To mimto,
BIDU tõusu põhjused:

BIDU Baidu.com spikes 6 points pre-mkt; hearing tier-1 firm out with positive comments (114.88 )
BIDU is spiking pre-mkt, after Piper Jaffray said they believe the co will sign deal with MSFT that will include China Netcom & China Telecom in the second half of this month.
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Vahelduseks mõned TA pickid väljastpoolt. Nimelt soovitab Dr. Melvin Pasternak oma newsletteris mõningaid nimesid nagu Microsoft (MSFT), Oracle (ORCL), Southern Company (SO) ja Valero Energy (VLO).

Vaatame näiteks ORCLi graafikut. Näeme, et juunist on aktsia ülespoole trendinud ning septembri lõpus tehti korralik gap ülespoole. Indikaatorid löödi mõnevõrra sassi, sest vaadates trendi peegeldavat Wilder DMI indeksit, siis sealne ADX ehk must trendijoon lõpetas koheselt trendimise. Ka ei meeldi mulle eriti -DI liikumine üle +DI, mis on negatiivseks signaaliks ning võib indikeerida teinekord koguni allatrendi algust. Aga nagu Wilderi indikaator näitab, on aktsia liikunud külgsuunas ning on teinud kaks toetust varasemal toetustasemel ning ka 50 päeva libisevalt keskmisel. MACD on teinud vastassuunalise liikumise, kuid samas on MACD histogramm andnud positiivse signaali, mis eeldab, et libisevate keskmiste erinevus hakkab uuesti suurenema. STO ei ole andnud veel crossoveri signaali, kuid paistab sedamoodi. MACD ja STO crossoveri puhul oleks see väga positiivseks signaaliks ning ootaks 20 dollari testimist.

Tsiteerin:

"The shares appear ready to test psychological resistance at $20. If ORCL can make it through that level, then it should reach the mid-$20's. My target is $23.95. The stop loss is $16.48, beneath the lower-end of the September gap.

Lisan ka Southern Company graafiku. Näeme, et aktsia on välja rebinud vastupanutasemest, kuigi väikese käibega. Indikaatorid on liikunud positiivselt ning tõus on selles mõttes olnud tervislik. STO järgi on küll tegu ülehinnatud tasemega, kuid tihti läbi vastupanutasemete murdmist ongi STO üleostetud tsoonis.

Tsiteerin:

"The stock is trading above a strongly rising 30-week moving average, the signature of a stage II advance. The 10-week moving average is also sloping powerfully higher, showing the strength of the Intermediate uptrend.

For the past several weeks, the shares have traded in a narrow range between roughly $35.50 and $36.50. It appears they may be poised to break out of this consolidation and continue their advance. ADX and MACD are on strong buy signals. On Balance Volume (OBV) has broken out strongly to new highs, a positive sign.

“The stock is overbought, with stochastics at 93 on %D and RSI at 76, so it may consolidate further, but support appears nearby. My target on SO is $39.95. I would exit the trade if the shares break lateral support at $34 and trade down to $33.89.

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Property and casualty insurance is likely to be ``very profitable'' in 2007, Swiss Re's chief economist Thomas Hess said in a statement faxed before a presentation in London today.

Pärast eelmise aasta õnnetusi prognoosisid kõik ka selleks aastaks sama. Nüüd kui tuli rahulikum aasta, hakatakse prognoosima sama ka järgmisele aastale...

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jim, selliene koht nagu http://www.minyanville.com/ :)
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Midagi huvitavat: http://www.wallstrip.com/theshow/2006/12/05/12-05-06-baidu/

Too tśikk väidab, et baidu.com-il oleks raske läbi lüüa läänes. Aga Googliga on täpselt samamoodi - vaevalt, et kunagi Google suudab läbi murda Hiinas. Yahool läks idas kehvasti, Ebay turuosa näritakse jõudsalt samamoodi...
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10 of 11 OPEC members cut output in Nov, production in Nov was lowest since May 04, according to survey- Bloomberg
Cut was about half of amount pledged at Oct meeting- Bloomberg

Nafta tootmise reaalne kärpimine oli novembris lubatust poole väiksem. Samas, nagu siin korra varem foorumites ära märkisin, pakkus Citi ühe võimalusena välja, et kärpimise mõjusid oli juba viimases raportis tunda. Sellest lähtepunktist loob huvitava situatsiooni, kui tegelikud kärped olid vaid pooles ulatuses ning võiksid potentsiaalselt 2 korda suuremad olla.
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Kas keegi oskab-viitsib komnteerida TOL käitumist (Toll Brothers (TOL) posted a 44% drop in quarterly net income and the luxury-home builder said its fiscal 2007 profit may decline by as much as 62%. Aktsia +3,5% ?)
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Kas keegi oskab-viitsib kommenteerida, kui kaua see karude mõmin neis investeerimisfoorumites veel kestab? Hakkavad juba vait jääma, aga mõni ikka veel mõmiseb. Ja nii huvi mõttes, kas USA peamised indeksid jäävad niimoodi sirgjoones igavesti tõusma?
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Detailid Toll Brothersi konverentsikõnest Briefingu silmade läbi:

Co believes many buyers are waiting on the sidelines with concerns about the direction of home prices as builders compete to move their specks. This is creating demand since landowners and builders are not being aggressive taking lots through approvals right now; believes there could be a shortage of building sites in the early stages when the market turns. They estimate that Q1 deliveries will be between 1600-1900 homes with an average price of between $670-680K (increased guidance). They anticipate that deliveries for Q2, Q3, and Q4 will be between 1550-1750, 1650-1800, 1550-1800 units respectively. Delivered price will be a little higher in Q2 between $665-675K, decreasing between $665K in Q3,r and $650-660K in Q4. Based on the backlog in place, expect that Q1 will have the lower cost of sales between 75-75.6%. Cost of sales increasing each qtrthereafter. Co says SG&A varies significantly QoQ as generally incur higher stock option expense in Q1 and more selling and advertising cost as a percentage of revenue in Q1 and Q2 than in Q3 and Q4.

In Q&A, analysts start right after the bat asking why co believes there is a bottom in the market. Co states this past weekend, they had quite a few communities sell (take nonreservation) these are the deposits before they go into the real deposits within agreement of sale, which are not returnable. They had taken two deposits per community; 'And that would give us hard to believe that the markets responding better than it had in the past. And we saw this kind of pickup over the past month, approximately, so it would appear to us that whereas -- as I said in the monologue dancing along the bottom for a couple of months...Recently last month it appears that we are now off the bottom, a level above it, and that hardens this". Co says they also noticed approximately the same thing in Maryland. Co notes Maryland never went down as deeply, didn't go into the trash can as the northern Virginia market, probably because it was much less speculation, fewer lots available for construction in the Maryland market. It is now at a level, which is 'pretty acceptable'. Co states that if we come out of the slump in the next 6 months on a definite basis, you will not have had a long enough down period to have ruined enough builders and developers to have a meaningful amount of ground hit the market. 'There's definitely some in the market already'. Says certain companies are struggling, some are in bankruptcy, but they don't think that's a large enough amount yet to be a major factor with respect to the balance of supply and demand. Co does not believe CA is deteriorating any longer They say it looks like Northern Cal looking better over the past months. Co says 25-26% margins are not unreasonable

Co states the worst market is Reno. Las Vegas has been soft. Phoenix has turned sour. Texas is still doing well. They say it is difficult to see how cancelation rates for November were but believes it improved. Co says it is difficult to see if they are taking market share. Co's strategy is organic right now.
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mõmm..
seda briefing juttu ma lugesin ka, ja sain enam-vähem sama moodi aru, nagu nüüd uuesti lugedes. Karude keeles tundub tõlge olema: mõmm, sitasti, mõmm!
aga? viimaste päevade graafikult nagu ei paista, et veel hullemaid tulemusi oleks hinna sisse arvatud...
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Oskab keegi kommenteerida, miks QID tõusis tänasel börsipäeval 0,10%, samal ajal kui QQQQ tõusis 0,36%? Need kaks peaksid näitama ju vastassuunalist liikumist - QID=-2xQQQQ. Või ei ole see nii ühene?

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Baidust veel niipalju, et olen paari hiinlasega raakinud, et mida nad otsingumootorina kasutavad, siis vaidetavalt enamasti Googlit. Baidu heaks raagib nende mp3 otsingu funktsioon, mida usinalt tarbitakse ja mis hoiab hiinlased Baidu kuljes. Valismaal kus vahegi autorikaitseoigustega vahe paremal jarjel ollakse, neil selline eelis puuduks ja seetottu ei nae vaga suurt potentsiaali Google'i ja Yahoo! sarnaste gigantidega voitluses. Uks asi mis Jaapanis voib Baidu heaks raakida on see, et viimasel ajal on Jaapan pidanud usna palju (nende kohta) valistoojoudu sisse tooma, kellest enamus on hiinlased/korealased ehk siis oma tarbijaskond eest votta.

B.

Diskleimer: oman
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Seda on huvitav teada. Näiteks me ülikoolis käib umbes 40 hiinlast, ma peaks neil küsima, et mida nemad asjast arvavad:)

Ma ise arvan, et gigantidel on erinevatel kontinentidel raske just rahvuslike eripärade tõttu. Hiinlasi on palju, neil on suur ühtne löögirusikas ja läänest tuleva vohava kapitalismi suhtes on nad alati skeptilised olnud. Ja vastupidi samuti. Kui mulle valge mehena pannakse tundmatuna ette google ning baidu, siis puht psühholoogiliselt valiks google ilmselt, sest see on arusaadavam.

Kuna iidsetest aegadest saadik on lääs ning ida "võitlust" pidanud, siis valge mees ei kujuta ette, et ta laseb end "vallutada" hiinlastel ja hiinlased omakorda valivad pigem endi seast, kui võtavad valge mehe toodangu.

Ma pole kindlasti rassist ja ma suure arvutikasutajana valiksin ka baidu, kui ta googlist etem oleks ning mul ei tekiks mingeid rahvuslikke probleeme. Me ju kanname ometigi hiinas tehtud riideid, vaatame jaapanis loodud televiisorist multikaid jne - sellega ei teki mingeid probleeme.

Kuid ma arvan siiski, rahvuslikus erinevuses on siiski oma loogika...