Trichet aktsent on vähenenud või?
:D
momentum, läänerindel hetkel muutusteta & euro päeva põhjade juures dollari suhtes.
Üks muutus oli: ETV ajakirjanik oli küsimusega ;)
Rev Shark: A Weighty Market
02/04/2010 8:51 AM
Where there is no struggle, there is no strength.
-- Oprah Winfrey
With the Cisco (CSCO - commentary - Trade Now) report last night, the major fourth-quarter earnings reports are all in. Overall the reports have been very good, and CSCO was no exception. It is quite impressive how well some of these companies have dealt with the worst economy in a generation.
Despite the very good earnings reports, the market reaction to the news has not be very favorable. Strong reports from leading companies such as Apple (AAPL - commentary - Trade Now), Amazon (AMZN - commentary - Trade Now), Google (GOOG - commentary - Trade Now) and Intel (INTC - commentary - Trade Now) have been greeted with selling. The very good report from CSCO last night has the stock up just 65 cents and still well off its recent highs.
I don't think even the bears can question the assertion that earnings have been quite good. What the bears can argue is that the lack of a better response indicates that the good news has already priced in. Given how much this market ran up in the second half of 2009, that view is not a stretch at all.
Economic news has been a bit more problematic. There are signs of improvement in various areas, but the pace of recovery is still slow and there continues to be concerns over unemployment and the real estate market. Tomorrow's monthly jobs report will be of particular interest.
Two other concerns are weighing on the market. The first is turmoil over the sovereign debt of Greece, Spain and Portugal that's causing weakness in the euro relative to the dollar. The weak dollar boosted this market quite a bit last year, but now the greenback is turning into a headwind.
The other economic issue is that the market is now much more concerned about how we're going to pay for all the bailouts and stimulus that we enjoyed last year. These programs created a flood of liquidity that propelled the market almost straight up for much of 2009, but the spigot is now slowing down and there is talk about raising taxes on various groups, such as a special tax on large banks. The Fed is still market-friendly but that is cooling off and the market is struggling to adjust to a less-positive environment.
That brings us to the technical health of the market. We rolled over sharply about two weeks ago and have been trying to put together a bounce over the last eight days of trading. The bulls looked quite good on Tuesday but otherwise the action has been mixed, and we aren't seeing the same sort of strong bounce that we saw so often last year.
I believe that the fundamental considerations outlined above have changed the character of the action and are undermining the chances of another "V"-shaped bounce. The good earnings news is helping to hold us up, but my major concern is that we don't seem to have any good leadership right now. The big-cap technology stocks showed some relative strength yesterday, and maybe CSCO will help to boost them again today, but they have been a drag on this market lately and certainly have not been leading.
The stronger dollar is undercutting oil, gold, agriculture and basic materials as leaders. China stocks had a little bounce yesterday but they are so badly broken that they need time to lick their wounds. Regional banks were leading but they have now rolled over. Biotechnology looked pretty strong, but much of that was due to Amgen (AMGN - commentary - Trade Now), which is a very heavy weighting in the biotech indices.
We can find some random strength here and there, but there isn't any obvious leadership theme. That concerns me greatly. Pockets of momentum that expand out into the broader market helps a good uptrend develop.
One thing that is different now than last year is that the S&P 500 is struggling more at key technical resistance levels. Last year overhead was a joke that the bulls laughed at as we ran straight up. This time the bounce is struggling with resistance around 1100. Even if we do manage to work through that level, another significant level of resistance sits around 1113: the 50-day simple moving average.
Regardless of your view of the market, one thing is clear -- we are not bouncing back as quickly or as easily as we did so often in the last six months. The longer we struggle to recover, the more likely the dip-buyers, who were always so anxious in the past, will lose some conviction.
Retail same-store sales are rolling in and look pretty good overall, with the exception of Target (TGT - commentary - Trade Now). Weekly unemployment claims came in higher than expected, and that's putting pressure on the market, as is with poor overseas action. The jobs report tomorrow is going to be particularly important.
Gapping down:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: DBTK -22.0% (also downgraded to Hold at Needham, downgraded to Perform at Oppenheimer), SPR -11.1%, PENN -8.1%, MSTR -7.9%, LAD -7.4%, INSP -7.4%, AVNW -6.5% (also downgraded to Hold at Needham ), TEN -6.4%, UL -6.1%, BG -5.8%, MWW -5.6%, ACTS -4.9%, CTRN -4.4%, UN -4.2%, SGU -4.1%, SPF -4.1%, K -3.6%, RNOW -3.1%, STD -3.0%, LII -2.8% (light volume), CNQR -2.8%, STLD -2.6%, ROST -2.6%, FRED -2.5%, WFR -2.4%, AKAM -2.3% (down despite being upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Goldman, upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Raymond James), ALEX -2.3% (light volume), TGT -2.0%, MA -1.9%, YUM -1.8%, WFR -1.7%, BBBB -1.4%... Select financials showing weakness: IRE -6.5%, AIB -6.0%, LYG -5.4%, RBS -5.2%, BCS -3.3%, ING -3.2%, HBC -3.1%, CS -2.6%, KEY -2.4%, GNW -1.9%... Select oil/gas related names showing early weakness: RDS.A -2.9%, PBR -2.2%, STO -1.8%, E -1.5%, HAL -1.4%, RIG -1.5%... Select metals/mining names trading lower: BHP -2.1%, MT -2.1%, RTP -2.0%, BBL -1.9%... Select auto related names under pressure: TTM -5.7%, DAI -3.1%, HMC -2.7%... Other news: SXL -12.5% (trading ex dividend), CSCX -2.9% (announces voluntary medical device recall), SI -2.8% (still checking), STX -1.8% (Cramer makes negative comments on MadMoney), UMPQ -1.2% (prices 7.5 mln common shares at $11.00/share and 16.5 mln depository shares at $11.00/share ), MDT -1.1% (Hospitals dispute Medtronic data on wires - WSJ )... Analyst comments: CGV -5.3% (downgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan), CAL -3.6% (downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan), DAL -3.4% (downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan), CREE -2.7% (downgraded to Neutral at Merriman), ZION -2.5% (downgraded to Underperform at Keefe Bruyette), WU -2.2% (downgraded to Neutral at BofA/Merrill), ACOR -1.8% (downgraded to Neutral at Baird), COCO -1.8% (downgraded to Neutral at BofA/Merrill), VZ -1.0% (downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse).
Gapping up:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance/SSS: KLIC +19.8%, AFFX +17.3% (also JP Morgan upgraded to Neutral from Underweight), JOEZ +16.3%, ENTG +14.4%, THQI +10.8%, MKSI +10.6%, SMED +10.4%, ANF +9.5%, CNU +8.7%, UFS +6.3%, OTEX +6.0% (also upgraded to Buy at Benchmark), IEX +5.7% (also upgraded to Outperform at Barrington Research), EK +5.4%, BKC +5.1%, JAS +5.1%, SNA +4.8% (light volume), CELL +4.7%, M +4.7%, V +4.2% (also upgraded to Strong Buy at Duncan-Williams, upgraded to Overweight at Barclays, upgraded to Strong Buy from Outperform at Raymond James), VOD +3.9%, DLB +3.6%, NDN +3.6%, GPS +3.6%, HOT +2.8%, CSCO +2.6%, SFN +2.6%, SLE +2.5%, TJX +2.2%, AEO +1.9%, ENS +1.4% (light volume), GSK +1.2% ... M&A news: HDNG +50.4% (Romi offers to acquire Hardinge for $8/share in cash)... Other news: DEPO +30.1% (still checking; will be presenting at the 12th BIO CEO & Investor Conference on February 9), RCMT +11.6% (approves $7.5 mln common stock repurchase), CYTX +7.4% (still checking), FMAR +6.6% (announces agreement to exchange common stock and warrants for trust preferred securities), PAG +1.6% (announces pricing of secondary common stock offering at $14.50), CIEN +3.1% and JNPR +1.5% (up in sympathy with CSCO)... Analyst comments: CYCC +16.2% (Roth initiates with a Buy and sets a $7 tgt), ARNA +7.2% (Rodman & Renshaw upgrades to Market Perform).
Seoses kreeklastega. Müüsid räige kalli hinnaga Superfasti laevad Tallinkile, ja imeti niipalju pappi Tallinkilt kuis sai. Köik töölised said oma portsu, A hiljem irvitasid, et ikka leidub tumbasi)))
USA järgimas Euroopat, S&P500 alustas päeva ca -0.9% madalamal
Euroopa turud:
Saksamaa DAX -1,03%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -1,23%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 -1,18%
Hispaania IBEX 35 -3,58%
Rootsi OMX 30 -0,99%
Venemaa MICEX -1,58%
Poola WIG -1,82%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 -0,46%
Hongkongi Hang Seng -1,84%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -0,29%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +0,29%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +0,18%
Tai Set 50 -0,90%
India Sensex 30 -1,64%
kole
Ilus parem õlg on tekkimas,joonlaua mehed jutte vedama:)
December Factory Orders +1.0% vs +0.5% consensus, prior revised to +1.0% from +1.1%
Jälgides dollari trendi, ei olnud kuigi keeruline ennustada, et turg alla tuleb.
... kuid seda sa ei teinud, ega ju?
Ma mängin Forexil ja üldise suunaga dollari tugevnemise peale. Niisiis ikkagi õiges suunas.
börs, see ongi imelihtne ja siin ei ole midagi väga keerulist.
Kui forexil mängid, siis ehk tead, mis asi on sent? Tagantjärele tarkus ei ole sedagi väärt.
ymeramees, juba nädal tagasi ennustasin langust portfell 'P' foorumis.
Kusjuures see on ju elementaarne, et turg liigub dollarile järele. Viimasel ajal kogu aeg niimoodi olnud, milleks imestada.
ja selle elementaarse nähtuse olemasolu tõestav number (aka korrelatsioon) on ..... ?
Maagaasi varud vähenesid läinud nädalal oodatust pisut vähem. Toornafta barrell on eilse varude raporti ja dollari tugevnemise peale odavnenud -2,6% @ 74.9 USD
Natural gas inventory showed a draw of 115 bcf, analysts were expecting a draw of 121 bcf, with ests ranging from a draw of 135 bcf to a draw of 107 bcf.
Enne TÄNAST oli su tees suhtkoht öka, kuna dollar on märgatavalt tugevnenud, kuid 26.01 tasemest oli turg näiteks eile õhtul kõrgemal. Küll oli see igati loogiline täna :))) Muuhulgas väitsid sa seda Fordi käekäigust tekkinud vaidluses, milles sa nagu feilisid samuti.