Kuna esmaspäeval oli USA aktsiaturg kinni, siis nagu ikka lükkus kolmapäevane EIA nafta ja mootorkütuste varude raport päeva võrra edasi ja numbrid avalikustatakse siis täna kell 11.00 USA idaranniku aja järgi ehk siis kell 18.00 Eestis. Maagaasivarude raport tuleb ka täna, kuid pisut varem - kell 17.35.
Inglise Keskpank otsustas täna hommikul oma intressimäärad jätta 5.0% tasemele. Üllatus see ei ole. Eesti aja järgi kell 15.30 algab otseülekanne ECB intressimäära otsuse järgsest presssikonverentsist ja kuulata saab seda siit.
Lisaks tuleb täna tund aega enne turu avanemist veel ka töötu abiraha taotlejate number. Eelmine nädal oli see 425K, seekord oodatakse, siis 420K'list näitu.
Graafiku peal näeb esmaste töötu abirahade taotlejate joon muidugi eriti tore välja. Kiire eksponentsiaalne tõus üles. Kuid nagu ka ajaloost näha, siis väga eksponentsiaalsed tõusud saavad tihtipeale väga kiire lõpu endale. Usun, et näeme ka initial claimsides mingi hetk enne presidendivalimisi kiiret tagasitõmmet, kuid tõenäoliselt ei juhtu see enne septembris tehtavaid sügiskoondamisi.
(LEH) Lehman Brothers: Mounting chatter about a possible sale is muddying the investment bank's closely watched sale of its asset-management unit - NY Post
NY Post reports mounting chatter about a possible sale of Lehman Brothers to foreign investors is muddying the beleaguered investment bank's closely watched sale of its asset-management unit, which is anchored by Neuberger Berman, sources tell The Post. According to people familiar with the matter, Lehman has asked private-equity investors involved in the asset-management auction to submit the next, and perhaps final, round of bids for all or part of the business by Sept. 12. However, the bidding process has been dogged by talk of Lehman possibly nailing a fat capital infusion from the Korean Development Bank or being acquired outright by parties that include the UK's HSBC (HBC). Some bidders believe that if Lehman either gets bought out or scores enough capital to emerge from its troubles, it might nix the sale. As it stands now, Lehman CEO Dick Fuld is in the midst of an unprecedented juggling act that centers on shedding risky real-estate assets from its balance sheet while at the same time raising cash. "We tend to think of these as mutually exclusive paths and we don't believe that [Lehman's] going down both paths," said one source.
Lehmani kohta viimasel ajal palju kuulujutte millest tingitud suur volatiilsus, kuid tõenäolisem oleks siiski ettevõtte ülevõtt. Aktsia kaupleb eelturul $16.62 tasemel, -1.89% languses.
Euroopa Keskpank jätab oma intressimäärad muutmata - määr siis jätkuvalt 4.25%. Igati ootustekohane. Pressikonverentsilt üritatakse kindlasti saada vihjeid kas ja millal on ECB valmis määrasid näiteks langetama.
Initial Claims 444K vs 420K consensus, prior revised to 429K from 425K
Q2 Unit Labor Costs -0.5% vs 0.0% consensus, prior +1.3%
Q2 Nonfarm Productivity +4.3% vs +3.5% consensus, prior +2.2%
Q2 Unit Labor Costs -0.5% vs 0.0% consensus, prior +1.3%
Q2 Nonfarm Productivity +4.3% vs +3.5% consensus, prior +2.2%
tunduks, et natukesega võiks proovida JOYGi longi siit.
JOYG Joy Global: Hearing JOYG upgraded to accumulate at Buckingham
JOYG Joy Global: Hearing JOYG upgraded to accumulate at Buckingham
Eneki poolt eile juba tähelepanu JOYG-le juhitud ning üsna tõenäoliselt pakub head treidi pikana, kuid hoiaks stopi siiski suhteliselt lähedal.
mhm, nõus Alari.
seepärast mõtlesingi, et kobisen ka vahele kuna JOYG oli eile teemaks.
seepärast mõtlesingi, et kobisen ka vahele kuna JOYG oli eile teemaks.
DRYS suutis päeva lõpuks kosuda $65.04 peale, ootaks täna veel mõningast kosumist aga nagu jube enne öeldud idee rohkem nii paari nädalane ja stopid samuti suht lähedal hoida. Kosumist ootaks ~$73-75 vahemikku.
Trichet on täna andmas väga range ajahorisondi, millal suudetakse inflatsioon kontrolli alla saada (to deliver price stability) ja selleks on 2010. aasta. Konkreetsus on loomulikult hea ja suurendab läbipaistvust.
Kas 2010-ga oleks midagi teha?
Viimasel ajal on kahtlemata hakatud, et kas ECB peab ikka oma mandaadist kinni inflatsiooni ohjeldada või ka Föderaalreservistub ära ja tegude asemel vaid lobiseb. Selline konkreetne tärmin suurendab kindlust price stability taassaavutamises. Ja ega see 2010 nii kaugel ka nüüd ei ole.
Goldman Sachs downgrades täna terasesektorit aktraktiivselt tasemelt neutraalsele, viidates mitme riski esilekerkimisele. Mainitakse tõusvat dollarit, "Hiina hirmu", nõrgenevaid makroandmeid ja nõrkust terasehindades. Ühtlasi eemaldati US Steel (X) oma Conviction Buy List'ist. Natuke ehk survestab aktsiat, aga X on samadel põhjustel juba tükk aega langenud, seega väga suurt reaktsiooni ei ootaks.
Mul on Nucor (NUE) täna radaril põrkekandidaadina. Aktsia on viimase 3-4 päevaga 25 punkti kukkunud. Siit tuleks osta, 48 juurest eelturul.
NUE Nucor: Citigroup sees upside to Q3 and Q4 EPS, believes a positive preannouncement is likely
Citigroup sees upside to NUE's Q3 and Q4 EPS ests, and believes a positive preannouncement is likely. They note steel equities have been punished amid the China slowdown and Crude-induced exodus from commodities. Yet, they believe underlying Steel markets are far more solid. The firm notes that spot sheet prices may have topped out, but company realizations should climb into 2009, while Beam/Bar/Plate remain at or near records. They say this dynamic also helps STLD, GNA, and CMC. The firm sees NUE as a deep value play and would recommend accumulating.
NUE Nucor: Citigroup sees upside to Q3 and Q4 EPS, believes a positive preannouncement is likely
Citigroup sees upside to NUE's Q3 and Q4 EPS ests, and believes a positive preannouncement is likely. They note steel equities have been punished amid the China slowdown and Crude-induced exodus from commodities. Yet, they believe underlying Steel markets are far more solid. The firm notes that spot sheet prices may have topped out, but company realizations should climb into 2009, while Beam/Bar/Plate remain at or near records. They say this dynamic also helps STLD, GNA, and CMC. The firm sees NUE as a deep value play and would recommend accumulating.
Trichet vs ECB staff ... kellele jääb õigus?
New ECB staff projections put the Harmonised Index of Consumer Inflation for 2009 in a 2.3-2.9 percent range, increasing the midpoint to 2.6 percent. For this year, it gave a 3.4-3.6 percent range, giving a 3.5 percent midpoint.
"Whilst Trichet is conceding that there are downside risks to growth, his downplaying of the current slowdown and optimism that global growth will be resilient suggest that the Bank is still hopeful that activity will remain comparatively firm in the medium term, despite the downward revision in the ECB staff's GDP forecasts," said Stuart Bennett at Calyon bank.
New ECB staff projections put the Harmonised Index of Consumer Inflation for 2009 in a 2.3-2.9 percent range, increasing the midpoint to 2.6 percent. For this year, it gave a 3.4-3.6 percent range, giving a 3.5 percent midpoint.
"Whilst Trichet is conceding that there are downside risks to growth, his downplaying of the current slowdown and optimism that global growth will be resilient suggest that the Bank is still hopeful that activity will remain comparatively firm in the medium term, despite the downward revision in the ECB staff's GDP forecasts," said Stuart Bennett at Calyon bank.
STLD oleks ka potentsiaalne ostukandidaat, sest lisaks Citi positiivsele kommentaarile tõstis ka Goldman soovituse "osta" tasemele. Ja seda sektori downgrade'i vastu.
Saksamaa DAX -1.35%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -1.00%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 +0.06%
Hispaania IBEX 35 -0.48%
Venemaa MICEX -2.52%
Poola WIG +0.37%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 -1.04%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng -0.95%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +0.03%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +1.46%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +2.83%
Tai Set 50 +0.91%
India Sensex -1.00%
Without Leaders, the Market Will Go Nowhere
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
9/4/2008 8:39 AM EDT
Faced with crisis, the man of character falls back on himself. He imposes his own stamp of action, takes responsibility for it, makes it his own.
-- Charles de Gaulle
The market simply lacks strong character. There are few positive themes and the technical condition of the major indices is problematic at best.
We have had some strength in financials and retailers as oil and commodities have completely collapsed, but the bounce in those groups is nowhere near the magnitude of the breakdown in energy prices. Looking at the S&P 500, you wouldn't think that crude oil is down well over 20%.
As I have been noting, this market is badly in need of leadership. The very sharp selling in technology stocks -- and especially semiconductors -- over the last couple of days causes some real concern about what group is going to lead this market back up.
The bounce in retailers seems to be some sort of reflexive action or short squeeze, and it is hard to trust that it will last, especially as same-store sales reports start to roll in today and show very mixed results. Wal-Mart (WMT) is strong but that retailer is obviously benefiting from struggling consumers downgrading their shopping.
After the pounding we've seen in energy and commodities lately, a lot of folks are sniffing around for a playable bounce there. If that happens, it's likely that our very thin leadership is going to get even thinner. But in this environment, it's the oversold bounces that have tended to be the best bets for traders.
The bottom line: This market is lacking positive character. The bullish case is based on hope and is not at all supported by the technical action. Until some good leadership emerges and market players show some inclination for sustained buying, we need to keep trades very short term and focus on protecting capital.
The market is oversold enough to give us some sort of bounce here soon, but things are very muddled and it is going to be difficult to trust the upside for long.
We are opening a bit weak as the ADP employment report is a bit soft and retail sales fail to inspire. Europe and Asia were mostly negative overnight, and we have a little bounce in oil and gold.
-----------------------------
Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance/same store sales: CBAK +18.5%, HAYZ +11.1% (light volume),) NAV +6.4%, ZUMZ +6.3%, AEO +1.6% (light volume), GPS +1.4%, MR +1.3% (light volume), SAI +1.2% (also upgraded to Outperform at Wachovia)... Select metals/mining names rebounding: RTP +4.0%, BBL +3.5%, BHP +2.6%, AAUK +2.2%, AUY +1.8%, GLD +1.3%... Other news: RDN +6.9% (continued strength following yesterday's 25%+move higher), UL +6.2% (names Nestle's Polman as CEO - Reuters), SOLR +3.6% (LDK signs polysilicon reactor agreement with GT Solar for an estimated value of $32 mln), BP +3.4% (TNK-BP Partners settle conflict - WSJ), BBT +2.3% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney)... Analyst comments: STLD +2.9% (upgraded to Buy at Goldman - DJ), NVLS +2.2% (upgraded to Overweight at Morgan Stanley).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance/same store sales: CIEN -19.0%, TEX -10.1%, HOV -9.0%, DLX -4.9% (also announces expansion of cost reduction program), ANF -4.5%, HRB -3.0%... Select financial names showing modest weakness: RBS -3.7%, BCS -3.1%, UBS -3.0%, MER -1.9% (may fail to sell bad loans to Korea Asset - Bloomberg.com), LEH -1.7% (MUFG says no truth to Lehman acquisition report - DJ), DB -1.6%, CS -1.6%, HBC -1.5%, GS -1.0%, BAC -1.0%... Other news: HIBB -5.8% (announces departure of Nissan Joseph, Chief Operating Officer), SHPGY -4.2% (Citigroup selling 8 mln shares at 938P each - Bloomberg), TPP -4.0% (discloses that it is contemplating possible sale of certain non-core assets; also files for debt securities shelf offering), MTW -3.6% and CAT -2.6% (down in sympathy with TEX), ABK -1.8% (says as of Aug 6, AMBAC was in violation of certain net asset covenants contained in the credit agreement - Reuters), SI -1.8% (still checking), MDT -1.7% (Medtronic product linked to surgery problems - WSJ), HCN -1.3% (announces proposed offering of 6 mln shares of common stock), NOK -1.1% (still checking), LAZ -1.0% (prices common stock offering at $37.00)... Analyst comments: MRVL -2.8% (downgraded to Hold at Deutsche Bank), LM -2.6% (downgraded to Underperform at Credit Suisse), SPNC -1.6% (downgraded to Sell at Goldman - DJ), KLAC -1.0% (downgraded to Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley).
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
9/4/2008 8:39 AM EDT
Faced with crisis, the man of character falls back on himself. He imposes his own stamp of action, takes responsibility for it, makes it his own.
-- Charles de Gaulle
The market simply lacks strong character. There are few positive themes and the technical condition of the major indices is problematic at best.
We have had some strength in financials and retailers as oil and commodities have completely collapsed, but the bounce in those groups is nowhere near the magnitude of the breakdown in energy prices. Looking at the S&P 500, you wouldn't think that crude oil is down well over 20%.
As I have been noting, this market is badly in need of leadership. The very sharp selling in technology stocks -- and especially semiconductors -- over the last couple of days causes some real concern about what group is going to lead this market back up.
The bounce in retailers seems to be some sort of reflexive action or short squeeze, and it is hard to trust that it will last, especially as same-store sales reports start to roll in today and show very mixed results. Wal-Mart (WMT) is strong but that retailer is obviously benefiting from struggling consumers downgrading their shopping.
After the pounding we've seen in energy and commodities lately, a lot of folks are sniffing around for a playable bounce there. If that happens, it's likely that our very thin leadership is going to get even thinner. But in this environment, it's the oversold bounces that have tended to be the best bets for traders.
The bottom line: This market is lacking positive character. The bullish case is based on hope and is not at all supported by the technical action. Until some good leadership emerges and market players show some inclination for sustained buying, we need to keep trades very short term and focus on protecting capital.
The market is oversold enough to give us some sort of bounce here soon, but things are very muddled and it is going to be difficult to trust the upside for long.
We are opening a bit weak as the ADP employment report is a bit soft and retail sales fail to inspire. Europe and Asia were mostly negative overnight, and we have a little bounce in oil and gold.
-----------------------------
Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance/same store sales: CBAK +18.5%, HAYZ +11.1% (light volume),) NAV +6.4%, ZUMZ +6.3%, AEO +1.6% (light volume), GPS +1.4%, MR +1.3% (light volume), SAI +1.2% (also upgraded to Outperform at Wachovia)... Select metals/mining names rebounding: RTP +4.0%, BBL +3.5%, BHP +2.6%, AAUK +2.2%, AUY +1.8%, GLD +1.3%... Other news: RDN +6.9% (continued strength following yesterday's 25%+move higher), UL +6.2% (names Nestle's Polman as CEO - Reuters), SOLR +3.6% (LDK signs polysilicon reactor agreement with GT Solar for an estimated value of $32 mln), BP +3.4% (TNK-BP Partners settle conflict - WSJ), BBT +2.3% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney)... Analyst comments: STLD +2.9% (upgraded to Buy at Goldman - DJ), NVLS +2.2% (upgraded to Overweight at Morgan Stanley).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance/same store sales: CIEN -19.0%, TEX -10.1%, HOV -9.0%, DLX -4.9% (also announces expansion of cost reduction program), ANF -4.5%, HRB -3.0%... Select financial names showing modest weakness: RBS -3.7%, BCS -3.1%, UBS -3.0%, MER -1.9% (may fail to sell bad loans to Korea Asset - Bloomberg.com), LEH -1.7% (MUFG says no truth to Lehman acquisition report - DJ), DB -1.6%, CS -1.6%, HBC -1.5%, GS -1.0%, BAC -1.0%... Other news: HIBB -5.8% (announces departure of Nissan Joseph, Chief Operating Officer), SHPGY -4.2% (Citigroup selling 8 mln shares at 938P each - Bloomberg), TPP -4.0% (discloses that it is contemplating possible sale of certain non-core assets; also files for debt securities shelf offering), MTW -3.6% and CAT -2.6% (down in sympathy with TEX), ABK -1.8% (says as of Aug 6, AMBAC was in violation of certain net asset covenants contained in the credit agreement - Reuters), SI -1.8% (still checking), MDT -1.7% (Medtronic product linked to surgery problems - WSJ), HCN -1.3% (announces proposed offering of 6 mln shares of common stock), NOK -1.1% (still checking), LAZ -1.0% (prices common stock offering at $37.00)... Analyst comments: MRVL -2.8% (downgraded to Hold at Deutsche Bank), LM -2.6% (downgraded to Underperform at Credit Suisse), SPNC -1.6% (downgraded to Sell at Goldman - DJ), KLAC -1.0% (downgraded to Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley).
Ehitajad üsna nõrgad täna, sest Hovaniani (HOV) tulemused valmistasid pettumuse. On üsna tõenäoline, et kuni vähemalt järgmise housing-datani (või reedese tööjõutururaportini, kui sealt üllatusi tuleb) jääb kogu sektor, sh XHB, surve alla.