Eilne S&P500 indeksi sulgumine allpool 700 punkti oli esmakordne alates 1996. aasta oktoobrist. Järelturu ametlik teadaanne Google'ilt, et ka nemad pole majanduslanguse ees kaitstud (üldiselt see peaks tänaseks juba ammu kõigile teada olema eranditult kõigi ettevõtete kohta) ning Palmi teadaanne fiskaalaasta 3. kvartali prognoositavatest tugevalt alla turu ootuste tuludest viisid PALMi üle 10% miinusesse ning ehmatasid järelturul ka turu ära.
Palm prognoosib 3. kvartali tuludeks $85-$90 mln vs turu keskmine ootus $157.8 mln (!). Ettevõtet katvate analüütikute kõige pessimistlikum prognoos on olnud $102 mln, kuid reaalsuses saab olema keerulisem. Tulude languse peamiseks põhjuseks tuuakse väga kiiret nõudluse langust Palmi vana nutitelfonide portfelli vastu ning oodatust hilisema Treo väljatulemisega USA turul. Kuna ettevõte on kahjumlik, siis kerkib üha tõsisemalt üles likviidsusriski oht.
Kas "enamus analuutikuid " on raske aru saada ? Minul on jalle "sellises koosluses" raske aru saada !! "Enamus analuutikuid" tolgiks mina nii: 50 % "vaartusetu infoallikas" ? Ja mina arvasin et investorid vaatavad iga laua ja iga kapi taha , kuulavad nii poolt kui vastu argumente, kooritavad nii pulli kui karu, janest ja rebast, kaaluvad ja vaagivad, et millal ja kuidas.Arvamus ei ole ju neutraalne, et mingi vaartus vast ikka on ?
"enamus analüütikuid" selle uudise kontekstis on tõenäoliselt enamus 4-5 head of trading või head of brokerage nimelisest ametimehest, kellele reporter hommikul helistas, analüütikud üldse ei avalda oma arvamust päeva liikumiste kohta ja tõsiseltvõetavamad küsitlused on kuised ning küsitletuid ikka 100 ringis
"Enamus analüütikuid" või "konsensus" vms on enamasti täielik sea ja käo aritmeetiline keskmine. Kui keegi viitsib tõesti 4-5 tähtsamalt treiderilt midagi küsida, siis pole sealt loomulikult hetkel miskit muud tulemas, kui nutt ja hala. Vendadest pooled on kinga saanud, ülejäänud pooltel on põlenud isiklikud investeeringud ja usk tulevikku. Tegelaste elus on hetkel ainsaks heaks asjaks ilmselt enne uinumist õlle peale võetav Xanax. See ei ole analüüs, see on snapshot sentimendist.
Sain hiljuti margin calli pikk olles, voibolla selle parast hoiskangi negatiivse sentimendi peale ? Psuhholoogid kas tegu selles et naudin sadistlikult teiste rahapolemist ?Voi akki olen hoopis hea sudamega samariitlane, soovides fellow investoriteid negatiivse sentimendiga hoiatada ? Vihjeks vaadake mida tahendab "batsu" jaapani keeles. P.S. see on kokkusattumus.
Leidsin Youtube "batsu" sisestades uhe Jaapani TV show.
Krt ei leia uhte head 2 tunnist seeriat, on vist maha voetud, kull leidsin uhe verivarske seeria, pole veel nainud aga julgen selletagi soovitada : http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pnOclGmddjE
Tegemist 5 sobraga,kes panevad uksteist naljakatesse situatsioonidesse, kus naeratada ei tohi.Kui oma naeruhimu siiski valja naitad saad karistada ja valusalt.Enne USA turgu usa meestele (pikkadele) soovitatav.
WSJ reports 20% of all U.S. residential properties that had a mortgage on them were underwater at the end of December, with mortgage debt greater than what the homes were worth
majade hinnad on sellest hetkest saadik veel alla tulnud, nüüd on very tricky ... kas underwater mortgages number kasvab oluliselt kiiremini kui majade hinna languse taga olevad sundmüügid seda vähendada suudavad?
Reedel avalikustatakse tund aega enne turgu USA veebruarikuu tööjõuraport. Ootused on üpriski nutused (-650 000 veebruaris vs jaanuari -598 000). Tänane ADP Employment raport annab alust arvata, et negatiivne raport reedel ka reaalsuseks saab.
February ADP Employment Change -697K vs -630K consensus, prior -522K
USA teeb täna võimsa avanemise. S&P500 eelturul +2.5% @ 707 punkti, Nasdaq100 +2.3% @ 1097 punkti ning nafta 6.5% @ $44.4 barrelist. Üldiselt on gap up päeva alguses toonud kiiresti kohale lühikeseks müüjad ning gap down jälle põhjaõngitsejad. Hiina aktsiaturu tänasele positiivsele reaktsioonile võimaliku lisa stimulus package'i kohta, tasuks aga tähele panna. Sel ajal kui S&P500 on ytd -22%, on Shanghai +20%...
Stuck in a Skittish, Mistrustful Market By Rev Shark RealMoney.com Contributor 3/4/2009 8:07 AM EST
Winning breeds confidence and confidence breeds winning. -- Hubert Green
Anyone who pays even mild attention to technical analysis understands that the major indices are "oversold." There are a lot of complex ways to determine that mathematically, but basically it means that we have gone down so far, so fast that we are very likely to see some sort of bounce. Markets just don't move in straight lines for very long. When selling is highly intense for a while, it eventual burns out and brave buyers step up and give us a bounce.
The great difficulty is that trying to time a bounce can be extremely difficult. There is always a crowd of folks calling for a reversal during a downtrend. Very few nail it precisely, and a whole slew of them will claim to be right even if they still have losses from their premature predictions.
So the big question is whether this market is finally ready to produce some upside. It has been trying to recover but is being plagued by one major problem: There is very little confidence out there. We need confidence to feed on confidence to actually get some momentum going.
Simply put, there is no trust. Every little upside move is viewed as an opportunity to flip for a quick profit. The more we have to quickly flip to make profits, the more we look to quickly flip for profits.
As I discussed yesterday, we are lacking catalysts. The market is extremely unhappy and skeptical about everything coming out of Washington lately. Neither Ben Bernanke nor Tim Geithner could excite buyers on Tuesday. They just are not capable of giving us the confidence and clarity that is needed to turn the tide right now.
The great danger in a market as stretched to the downside as this one is that you become overanxious to try to bottom-fish and end up with some fast losses in uncooperative stocks. If you tried to buy GE (GE) lately, for example, you know what I mean.
The market continues to be set up for some sort of upside, but we need that spark and some confidence to get things rolling. At the moment there isn't any trust, and the news flow continues to be quite poor -- even stalwarts such as Google (GOOG) are saying they aren't immune to a poor economy.
We have a positive open shaping up this morning, but as I noted yesterday, the market's inclination has been to fade the opening move. We then have to wait and see how things develop from there. We were down sharply overnight but have recovered on news of stimulus plans in Asia. It is still a very skittish environment, but the degree of the negativity suggests at least some minor relief may be due soon. ----------------------------- Ülespoole avanevad:
Gapping up In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: LZR +22.6%, JOYG +15.0%, AFAM +13.0%, LIZ +12.6% (light volume), ALTH +10.2%, PAY +7.9%, GB +5.4%, BIG +4.5%, ASML +2.9% (light volume), MASI +2.1%... Select financial related names rebounding: BX 6.3%, USB 5.6% (reduces quarterly dividend to $0.05/share from $0.425/share), PRU 4.7%, BCS 4.5%, DB 4.4%, MTU 4.3%, ABB 4.2%, C 4.1%, UBS 3.8%, AEG 3.5% (upgraded to Neutral at UBS), WFC 3.1%, JPM 3.0%, BAC 3.0%, COF 2.6%, FITB 2.4%, MS 2.4%, GS 1.5%, MET 1.3%, HIG 1.1% (reportedly in talks to sell life insurance unit to Sun Life - RTT News)... Select drybulk shipping names showing strength: DRYS 7.5%, FRO 7.3%, EGLE +4.2%, DSX 2.6% (announces time charter contract for m/v Coronis; gross rate of $14K/day for minimum 11 to maximum 13 month period)... Select oil/gas names trading higher with strength in crude: PTR 4.4%, RDS.A 4.3%, TOT 3.9%, VLO 2.9%, BP 2.1% (BP to pay dividend despite oil's drop - WSJ), SLB 2.0%, XOM 1.1%... Select metals/mining names showing strength: MT 5.7% (upgraded to Hold at Citigroup), RTP 5.4%, RIO 5.1%, FCX 4.5%, BBL 4.3%, AUY 1.5% (announces record reserves and resources)... Select iron/steel names showing early strength: AKS 7.5%, X 5.3% (further consolidates operations for greater efficiency), NUE 2.4%... Select chemical/ag related names showing strength: MOS 3.1%, AGU +2.7%, POT 2.3%, MON +2.1%... Other news: RMBS 18.5% (U.S. court finds in Rambus' favour in Hynix case - Reuters.com), MGG 8.3% (MMP and MGG announced a definitive agreement to simplify capital structure by transforming the incentive distribution rights and ~2% economic interest of MMP's general partner into MMP common units), TS 6.0% (still checking for anything specific), FDO 2.7% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney)... Analyst comments: MDR +9.9% (light volume; upgraded to Buy from Hold at Natixis Bleichroeder), BMRN +4.2% (upgraded to Buy at Citigroup), T +2.6% (added to Analyst Focus List at JPMorgan), FSLR +2.5% (resumed with Buy at BofA/Merrill).
Allapoole avanevad:
Gapping downIn reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: PALM -7.7% , SCO -7.3%... Other news: MGM -27.9% (files to delay 10-K, still in the process of assessing its financial position and liquidity needs; also downgraded to Hold at Keybanc and target lowered to $0.60 at Citigroup), ABK -10.4% (Moody's reviews Ambac's ratings for possible downgrade), RDWR -5.6% (still checking), HMC -4.8% (Honda Motor seeking govt loan assistance - WSJ), NVS -1.6% (still checking), GOOG -0.8% (CEO says 'we are not immune' to economic situation - DJ).
