Selle nädala märkssõnaks saab kindlasti tänaselt neljapäevale lükatud stress-testi avaldamine. Turgude ralli on olnud võimas ning saab näha, kas testi tulemused suudavad sellele kütust lisada. Endiselt on käimad tulemustehooaeg, täna avaldavad kvartalinumbrid Chesapeake Energy (CHK) ja Tyson Foods (TSN).
Nädala jooksul võiks tähelepanu pöörata ka USA rahandusministeeriumi 3, 10 ja 30 aastaste võlakirjade emiteerimisele koguväärtuses $70 miljardit. Viimasel ajal on 10aastase võlakirja tulusus tõusnud, nagu on üles liikunud ka 20aastaste võlakirjade tulusus ning koos sellega ka indeksfond TBT.
Väga optimistlik lühiintervjuu Mobiusega siin.
Hoolimata sellest, et Imax Corporation (IMAX) on Pro all oma hinnasihi $6.80 juures ära täitnud, jätame idee lahti ning ootame ära 7. mail enne turu avanemist avaldatavad tulemused. Tegemist ei ole siiski tulemustele spekuleerimisele, vaid usus, et kvartalitulemused võimaldavad hinnasihti tõsta. Meie hinnasiht on üsna madal, näiteks Merriman ootab aktsia liikumist $8.75-10.50-ni (sõltuvalt kasumisse jõudmise ajast) ning Rothi hinnasiht on $11.
Samas on meie esialgne siht täis, aktsia tõusnud kahe kuuga 69%, mistõttu väiksema riskitaluvusega kliendid võiksid mõelda ka kasumi võtmisele.
see aitab, raudselt
nagu ta meidki aitab
Haige riik, soovib kunagist laenumulli virtuaaleelarvet saada taas samaväärseks maksude tõstmisega
siin riigis on nii idioodid koos, et lausa vastik hakkab
kui laenu ei saa ega siis mõte eriti ei liigu
Aasias täna väga võimas tõusupäev - suurimad tõusud Indias, Vietnamis, Taiwanis, Hiinas, Hong Kongis ja Indoneesias. USA alustab päeva indeksite poole protsendilise plussiga.
Saksamaa DAX +1.23%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +0.82%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 N/A (börs suletud)
Hispaania IBEX 35 -0.92%
Venemaa MICEX +2.67%
Poola WIG +2.73%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 N/A (börs suletud)
Hong Kongi Hang Seng +5.54%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +3.33%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +2.53%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +1.20%
Tai Set 50 +3.45%
India Sensex 30 +6.41%
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
5/4/2009 8:22 AM EDT
Advances are made by answering questions. Discoveries are made by questioning answers.
-- Bernhard Haisch
The market has continued its advance of nearly two months as we ride the upward momentum created by the idea that the "worst is over" for the economy. Many buyers probably aren't totally convinced of that fact, but investors understand that it is much more important to be on the right side of the trade than it is to be doubtful and skeptical.
It is very easy to question the strength we have seen in this market recently, but you can't make money by standing aside and saying that it is unjustified. That doesn't mean you can't question the action, but if you are too dogmatic you will miss out on short-term opportunities even though they may seem quite irrational.
The tough thing about this market is that we have gone from dealing with the worst economy since the Great Depression to a rally that is looking unstoppable. The easiest thing to do is to say this just isn't going to last much longer because it isn't possible to recover so quickly and easily from all the fundamental economic problems that still exist. We can find plenty of folks who will tell us about the overhang of issues that will plague us for some time.
But our job isn't to be economists. Our job is to make money in the market, which means we have to respect that action no matter how illogical it may seem. Right now we have some very strong action -- many stocks continue to trend upward, the pullbacks are deep and the news flow is benign enough not to scare away the buyers.
Yes, we've become a bit extended and we are seeing some frothy speculation, but markets always tend to excess. Extremes always become more extreme, and the arguments for momentum to quickly end are very easy to make on a logical basis.
So it is important not to overthink things. The market is trending up, and while plenty of good arguments exist about why it can't continue, the price action is very favorable and we have to respect that more than anything else. I'd prefer we had some consolidation, but when we have strong speculation in groups like bulk shipping and small-cap China, we need to take advantage while we can.
I can come up with lots of reasons this market should roll over and die, but arguments and logic are useless against price action. We will stay focused on that and try to make money. I'm sure there will be plenty of time when the negative fundamentals will drive the market once again, but for the moment they don't much matter.
We are set to gap up this morning, but I'm looking for some mild profit-taking to kick in early and will be doing a little selling myself.
-----------------------------
Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: CYOU +15.1%, S +7.1% (Sprint is in talks to outsource its network - WSJ), EL +6.0% (light volume), PSEM +4.9%, SOHU +4.0%... M&A news: DTV +3.7% (DIRECTV and Liberty Media Corporation announce combination)... Select financial names trading higher: FIG +9.0%, ING +7.9%, AEG +7.5%, AINV +6.8%, IBN +6.2%, RBS +5.1%, GNW +4.5%, HBAN +4.5%, ABB +3.4%, C +3.4% (Citi said to need up to $10 bln - WSJ), BX +3.3%, USB +2.7%, DB +2.2%, MS +2.1%, WFC +1.3% (Buffett says Wells Fargo to ride out credit crisis - Reuters), JPM +1.2%... Select metals/mining related names showing strength: CENX +11.5%, AA +4.6%, GFI +4.2%, HMY +3.5%, AU +2.3%, MT +2.0%, ABX +1.7%... Select shipping names trading higher: EGLE +6.6%, DRYS +5.1% (tgt raised to $12 at Jefferies given increased EBITDA ests/their expectation for continued improvement in the dry bulk shipping market), EXM +4.4%, TBSI +3.7%, GNK +2.9%... Select casino related names showing strength: MPEL +7.0%, LVS +4.4%, MGM +3.4% (Las Vegas Sun discusses MGM's S-3 (filed Friday after the close); replaces prior shelf registration which expired on May 1)... Select iron/steel related names trading higher: CPSL +13.1%, GNA +8.7%, AKS +3.4%, X +2.5%... Other news: ACAD +105.0% (light volume; Biovail Enters into Collaboration and License Agreement with Acadia for Pimavanserin; Biovail has paid an upfront fee of $30 million), ACAS +10.9% (still checking), CGV +8.4% (still checking), GM +5.0% (GM shifts negotiations into high gear - WSJ), F +2.8% (still checking for anything specific), QGEN +2.8% (still checking), DF +2.6% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), BGU +2.4% (still checking), DIS +1.9% (Hong Kong nears agreement to expand Disneyland Park - WSJ), SLB +1.2% (Schlumberger mentioned positively in Barron's)... Analyst comments: COT +14.4% (upgraded to Buy at UBS), CHL +6.6% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman- DJ), SEPR +4.4% (upgraded to Overweight at JPMorgan), RIMM +3.7% (trading higher premarket; hearing added to Conviction Buy List at tier 1 firm), SYMC +3.3% (upgraded to Overweight at Weisel), INTC +2.8% (upgraded to Overweight at Morgan Stanley), MA +1.6% (upgraded to Buy at Deutsche).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: TSN -3.3% (light volume)... M&A news: ELX -3.1% (Emulex Board unanimously rejects unsolicited proposal from Broadcom )... Other news: BCRX -4.0% (modestly pulling back from last week's 40%+ surge higher), DNDN -2.8% (still checking), LINE -2.5% (trading ex dividend)... Analyst comments: ADBE -2.8% (downgraded to Hold at Citigroup), TGT -1.6% (downgraded to Underperform at BofA/Merrill), RL -2.2% (downgraded to Underperform at BofA/Merrill).
Pole mõnda aega juba postitanud siia kaubamahtude liikumist kajastavat Baltic Dry Indexi graafikut - kui siin vahepeal oli enam kui kolme nädalane järjestikune langustrend, siis sellest on üle saadud ning pigem võime täheldada tervitatavat kolme kuulist stabiliseerumist.
Visake pilk peale ka meie selle kevade viimasele tulemuste tabelile - täna hommikused näidud on nüüdseks sisse viidud. Link tabelile siin.
Siinkohal on pakkuda üks päris hea graafik, panemaks liikumise ulatust perspektiivi 1929-1932 toimunud sarnaste liikumistega (reede õhtuse seisuga):