Mõned teemad tänaseks päevaks:
- Merrill Lynch tõstab täna hommikul Cisco Systemsi (CSCO) reitingu Osta peale varasema Neutraalse pealt. Analüütikute arvates peaks nõudlus IT-toodete järele tõusma 2004/2005 aastal. Hinnasihiks $29.
- Pisike Allos Therapeutics (ALTH) teatas täna oodatult, et nende vähiravimikandidaat RSR13, mis peaks aitama neid naisi, kelle rinnavähk on hakanud siirdeid ajama juba ajju näitas III katsefaasis suurepäraseid tulemusi. Müügiluba võib tulla juba 2004. aasta teises pooles ning müügipotentsiaaliks võib olla $250-300 mln aastas. Seda on päris palju $70 mln turuväärtusega pisikese biotechi jaoks. Usun, et ALTH on üks nendest firmadest, millel on päris head võimalused eduks.
- JP Morgan on täna hommikul väljas analüüsiga, kus soovitab investoritel tungivalt osta Pfizeri (PFE) aktsiaid. Põhjendused praktiliselt kõik need, mille tõi eilsel investeerimisseminaril välja ka Rain Lõhmus. Firma aktsiad on allahinnatud nii ajalooliselt kui ka võrreldes kogu turuga. Rain pakkus eile välja, et PFE hind peaks kahekordistuma järgmise nelja aastaga.
- Qualcomm (QCOM) tõstis täna hommikul päris märkimisväärselt jooksva kvartali prognoose. Aktsiad on eelturul 6-7% plussis, mis on nii suure firma kohta päris tubli tõus.
- Circuit City (CC) same-store müük tõsusis sellel kuul 4%. See on päris hea number võrreldes eelmiste kuude kukkumisega. Muidugi ei anna seda võrrelda konkurendi Best Buy (BBY) 8.6% numbriga kolmandas kvartalis. Vastukaaluks müüginumbrile on Barrons täna hommikul kirjutanu neg. maigua loo CC teemal. Siiski midagi uut sealt välja lugeda ei ole võimalik.
- Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) teatas, et hakkab oma suurarvutites kasutama Transmeta (TMTA) Efficeon-tyypi protsessoreid. Tegemist on päris olulise uudisega pisikese protsessoritootja jaoks.
- Corning (GLW) teatas, et kinnitab oma jooksva kvartali käibeprognoosi.
- Täna õhtul on Inteli (INTC) kvartali vahearuanne. Viimase nädala jooksul on praktiliselt kõik firma aktsiaid katvad analüütikud oma jooksva kvartali prognoose tõstnud. Ootused on päris kõrged, mis tähendab, et kui INTC peaks tegema ühe valesammu, siis on kukkumina päris kõva.
- Gary B. Smith:
- RevShark:
A nasty pullback after the Nasdaq briefly breached the 2000 level produced a hefty dose of fear yesterday, particularly amongst momentum traders. Volume on the Nasdaq picked up sharply as it sold off, an indication that there was a little panic in the air.
The downward spiral was led by some of the recent highfliers, primarily in the technology sector. A good example of a momentum favorite that took a hit is Sandisk (SNDK:Nasdaq), which is up over 500% since the start of this rally. Quite a few other recent leaders took some big hits as well.
Is this the beginning of the end of the massive rally? Will the brief dalliance with Nasdaq 2000 mark the end of the huge run? Should we sell everything and move into cash? Maybe. We do need to be more cautious, but this rally has made quick work of the bears who have dared to assume that it is ready to roll over and play dead.
Technically the sharp reversal yesterday was clearly a negative. When a stock or index makes a new high and then reverses to close at its low, it is a sign that the bulls have exhausted their buying power. The inability to sustain the move demonstrates a lack of buying potency. The TA textbooks will tell you that such action is a sign that we need to use increased caution. The odds are that there will be some sort of downside follow-through.
However, one key characteristic of this massive rally is how often it has ignored the TA playbook. We have a whole series of V-shaped bounces over the past nine months, which is not the action technicians normally expect.
Howard Simon noted in Columnist Conversation yesterday that during the course of this rally we have had 10 prior "key reversal" days where we made a new high before reversing and finishing below the prior day's close. Obviously since we have continued to rally for so long, those reversals weren't so "key" after all.
If you look at the reversal days on Oct. 15 and then on Nov. 7 we did have some downside follow-through that lasted for a few days. However, each was followed by a V-type reversal that took us straight back up to new highs.
So what do we do now? We respect the technical action and become more cautious. Tighten stops, don't let losers run too far and be more selective with new buys. Play good defense so that your offense will be well positioned when their time comes.
The watchful eye of caution will allow us to strike with the firm and strong hand of courage once the profit taking has run its course. The idea is to be properly positioned when a tradable bounce comes along.
In the early going we have a bit of a bounce shaping up. Merrill Lynch upgraded Cisco (CSCO:Nasdaq), Intel (INTC:Nasdaq) is expected to say optimistic things at its midquarter update later today and the analysts are coming to the rescue of a number of stocks that were trashed in yesterday's selloff. Overseas markets are mixed, gold is down a couple of bucks and oil is up. We have the weekly unemployment data coming up at 8:30 a.m. EST, which will attract some attention.
The big-cap technology stocks will be of particular interest today. They have underperformed their small-cap cousins for a while. We may be seeing a shift of cash into that group as big fund managers who can't buy small-caps look for places to try to make up some performance before the end of the year.
Stay cautious today and respect yesterday's sharp reversal. We may indeed bounce back quickly but now is the time to err on the side of caution rather than aggressiveness.
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