Börsipäev 31. juuli

Sumitomo Chemical teatab, et ollakse jõudnud kokkuleppele, mille kohaselt omandatakse pisikese Cambridge Display (OLED) aktsiad hinnaga $12, mis teeb soetamishinnaks kokkuvõttes $285 miljonit. OLED sulgumishinnaks eile oli $6.15 ehk preemia päris korralik. Samas sektoris tegutseb ka Universal Display Corporation (PANL), mida on mainitud viimasel ajal seoses Applega (AAPL). Natuke sai firmat kommenteeritud 22. märtsi börsipäeva foorumis. Täna võib aktsia huvi üles näidata ülevõtuudistega seoses secondary play näol - 20% aktsiatest on lühikeseks müüdud.

Aasia turud täna plussis ning optimistlikes toonides pealkirju taas mitmel pool näha. Bloomberg on täna kirjutamas Idamaade riikide aktsiaturgudest – nimelt on Aasia turud järjekordset kuud positiivselt aktsiaturgudel lõpetamas. Juuliga saab Morgan Stanley Capital International Asia Pacific Index’il 10 kuud tõusu täis, mis tähendab, et tegu on pikima igakuise hindade ülespoole liikumisega Aasias viimase 20 aasta jooksul.

Indias tõsteti see-eest aga täna ootamatult pankade reservimäärasid, mis vähendab ringlusesse minevat raha hulka. Intressimäärad jäeti 7.75% peale ning pangad peavad hoiustest kõrvale panema varasema 6.5% asemel 7%. Valitsusametnikud Indias ja Hiinas on öelnud, et inflatsiooni ohjeldamiseks tuleb intressimäärasid kõrgel hoida, mis aga pärsib kohalike ettevõtete (nt autotootjad) tegevust. Lisaks tekitab probleeme tõik, et India ruupia on sel aastal tõusnud juba tervelt 9.4%, mis muudab importtooted üha odavamaks.
Täna on Deutsche Bank kommenteerimas Monster Worldwide’i (MNST) eilseid Q2 tulemusi. Kuigi selle aasta prognoose kergelt langetatakse, on DB paranenud riski/tulu suhte tõttu Monsteri suhtes positiivsem kui varem. Uus juhtkond on asunud tegutsema ning seadnud endale eesmärgiks:

1) Lihtsustada ettevõtte struktuuri.
2) Vähendada kulutusi läbi töötajate arvu optimeerimise. Plaanitakse koondada 15% töötajatest, mis vähendaks kulusid $150-170 mln aastas.
3) Investeerida suurest vaba raha hulgast 50% uute toodete ja tehnoloogiate väljaarendamisele.

DB säilitab ostusoovituse hinnasihiga $48, mis asetaks Monsteri 13-kordsele EV/EBITDA suhtele ja 26-kordsele 2008.-nda aasta oodatavale kasumile. See tähistaks preemiat võrreldes trükimeedia 9 kuni 10-kordse 2008.-nda aasta oodatava EV/EBITDA suhtega, kuid DB hinnangul õigustab seda Monsteri kiirem kasv.

Citigroupi nägemust Monsteri suhtes on Oliver vahendanud 21. juuni börsipäeva foorumis.

Investoritele kapaga külma vett krae vahele – Sowood Capital Management kaotas juulis $1.5 miljardit ehk 50% fondi väärtusest. Põhjuseks halvaks läinud panused ettevõtete võlakirja- ja laenuturgudel. Tegu on suurima hedge-fund’i kokku kukkumisega alates langusest ettevõtete võlakirjade turul.

Sowood Capital Management LP lost 50 percent in July, or about $1.5 billion, the biggest hedge-fund manager to collapse after declines in the corporate bond and loan markets.

Sowood sold most of its assets to Citadel Investment Group LLC and will unwind its two funds, Jeff Larson, founder of the Boston-based firm, told investors in a letter yesterday. Sowood sought a buyer when it couldn't meet lenders' demands for more collateral. Terms of the sale to Chicago-based Citadel weren't disclosed.

``The transaction enabled us to avoid anticipated forced sales at extreme prices,'' Larson, a former Harvard University endowment manager, said in the letter. ``The weakness in corporate credit, particularly focused on loans and loan credit- default swaps, accelerated sharply during the week of July 23.''

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"We are very sorry this has happened,'' Larson said in the client letter. ``A loss of this magnitude in such a short period is as devastating to us as it is to you.''

Link artiklile asub siin.

Futuure on toetamas täna hommikult General Motorsi (GM) tugevad tulemused, mis on aktsia eelturul kergitanud 7% kõrgemale eilsetest sulgumistasemetest.

General Motors reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $2.29 per share, excluding special items, $1.21 better than the Reuters Estimates consensus of $1.08; revenues rose 2.3% year/year to $45.9 bln vs the $45.04 bln consensus. "As we head into the second half of the year, we're optimistic about continued growth prospects in key emerging markets. In the U.S., the economy and auto market outlook remains challenging, but we'll continue our future product and technology investments, while staying focused on growing our revenue and improving our cost competitiveness. We look forward to the U.A.W. negotiations as an opportunity to continue to address issues that are important to the company, the union and our employees... We're pleased that GMAC returned to profitability in the second quarter, with significantly better results than the first quarter. GMAC's auto financing and insurance businesses continues to post strong results while the company continues to progress in addressing the challenging conditions in the residential mortgage market." As announced in June 2007, the sale of the Allison Transmission business will further bolster GM's liquidity, with proceeds of approx $5.6 bln. The sale is expected to close in the third quarter 2007.
The Senate Finance Committee on 10 am ET läbi viimas istungit küsimuse osas, kas tõsta maksumäärasid 15% tasemelt 35 protsendi peale kasumite väljajagamistelt private equity ja hedge fondide manageridele. Potentsiaalsed mõjud FIGile ja BXile.

Täna on UA taas lennus, ettevõte beatis tulemustega ootuseid ning kaupleb eelturul 16% kõrgematel tasemetel, tehes nii aasta tipud.

Jätkuks Joeli postitatud uudisele, siis täies pikkuses on investoritele saadetud kirja võimalik lugeda siit (http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/Sowoodletter-20070730.pdf)

Tänane majandusstatistika erilisi üllatusi ei paku:

Inimeste sissetulekud kasvasid juunis +0.4% vs konsensusootus +0.5%.
Inimeste kulutused kasvasid juunis +0.1% vs konsensusootus +0.1%.
Core PCE Inflation m/m tõusis juunis +0.1% vs konsensusootus +0.2% (y/y +1.9% vs +1.9%).
Employment Cost Index tõusis 2. kvartalis +0.9% vs konsensusootus +0.9%.
Pre-Market: 11.56 5.41 (87.97%)
See käis OLED kohta? Mis lahti?
Leiko, kirjutasin esimeses postituses sellest. :)
Futuurid reageerisid majandusstatistikale positiivselt, olles peale seda taas maha jahtunud. Huvitav on aga see, et eelmise kuu y/y PCE tõsteti 1.9% tasemelt 2.0% tasemele.
jaja sry;)
Danaheri (DHR) insiderid on taaskord aktsiaid müümas ning kogused on üpriski suured.
Päris huvitav uudis. TXU ostjatele laenu lubanud investorid on diilist taganemas. Laenajate hulgas on Citi, Lehman ning nõus ollakse maksma isegi $1B väärtuses break-up feesid, et vältida võimalikke kahjusid investeeringuilt.

--Bloomberg
TXU kohta huvitav uudis tõesti, Oliver - äkki annad lingi?
Kristjanile


Ok, thanks - ma sain aru, et taganemine juba päris kindel, aga siiski alles kaaluvad. Aga jah, ma usun, et enne suurt sügist veel ühest ära jäänud tehingust kuuleme ja TXU üks kandidaate esirinnas.
Let the Bounce Play Out
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
7/31/2007 7:34 AM EDT


Trust only movement. Life happens at the level of events, not of words. Trust movement.
-- Alfred Adler

The very ugly action last week set us up for a classic oversold or "dead cat" bounce. That is exactly what happened on Monday. After some hesitancy, the buyers finally found some traction and we rallied steadily most of the afternoon. Volume was down substantially from the very high levels we saw on Thursday and Friday and breadth wasn't fantastic, but the buyers were obviously able to set aside some of the worries and concerns that caused a bit of panic last week.

So is the worst over? Was this just another short-lived dip that will be quickly forgotten as we move straight back up to recent highs? That is exactly what has happened recently, especially after the last pullback in late February and early March. Given how the uptrend has persisted so stubbornly, there are many who believe that we will once again see this market shake off the weakness and jump straight back up.

Certainly it is very possible that will occur, but there are good reasons to harbor some doubts. Conditions have changed both technically and on a macroeconomic level. The subprime debt and general credit concerns that have been talked about for a while are now actually seeing some news to support the view that there are some real issues there. It has had a clear impact on the private-equity deals that were driving the market up so forcefully.

In addition, unlike the first quarter, earnings season has been not warmly embraced. We have had a clear "sell the news" reaction, which tells us that expectations may have gotten too high and valuations are starting to be questioned. The mindset is not the same as it was during first-quarter earnings.

For many months, this market has completely ignored the many bearish arguments. Although the logic behind the pessimism was obvious, the market simply didn't care and the bears' role was relegated to serving as short-squeeze fuel.

That may happen once again which is why it is so important that we watch the way the present bounce plays out. If it is like the ones in the past and just keeps on going and sucks in the buyers once again, we'll need to forget what the bears have to say and put on our buying hats. However, if the bounce begins to sputter and upside progress becomes difficult, we need to set aside our optimistic hopes and get more defensive very fast.

The technical analysis handbook tells us that we should be very hesitant about trusting a bounce after a big, sharp selloff. That has been bad advice following the last few pullbacks, but that doesn't mean we should disregard it. We need to respect the rulebook, but we also need to keep in mind that it obviously doesn't work all the time.

We have a strong open setting up this morning. Overseas markets were very strong and earnings reports are looking OK. Oil and gold are trading up and the bulls are anxious to get back to work.
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Ülespoole avanevad:

Gapping up on strong earnings/guidance: HW +22.8%, UA +17.8%, MALL +17.3%, SUNW 10.6%, CBG +9.5%, RYAAY +7.6%, ONNN +6.7%, GM +6.7%, MOS +5.2%... M&A related: OLED +88.0% (to be acquired by Sumitomo Chemical for $12/share), WEN +9.5% (WSJ reports that Arby's parent outlines terms for Wendy's bid), DJ + 8.1% (WSJ reports that News Corp. (NWS) and Dow Jones (DJ) edged closer to a final agreement on the sale of DJ to NWS)... Other news: MBLX +6.5% (co announced a new gift card by Target (TGT) made using Mirel biobased plastic is now available in 129 Target stores nationwide).

Allapoole avanevad:

Gapping down on weak earnings/guidance: OPTM -31.8%, LCAV -16.5%, DXPE -16.5%, IVAC -15.3%, SIMO -11.3%, ALU -9.7%, HMA -8.6%, SOFO -6.7%, IACI -4.1%... Other news: MTG -10.2% & RDN -9.7% (MTG and RDN discussed impaired C-BASS Investment in subprime credit; MTG was subsequently downgraded at Bear Stearns), SUNH -9.4% (downgraded to Neutral at UBS), GRRF -5.6% (prices a 3.29 mln ADS offering at $9.65/ADS).
Kristjan, taganemine tõepoolest kindel ei ole. Seda indikeerib ka asjaolu, et aktsiahind kõigest protsendi madalamal eelturul. Kuid huvitav areng kindlasti ning silma tasub peal hoida sellistel asjadel.