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Cracks in the Foundation?
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
8/31/2009 9:00 AM EDT
Caution is not cowardly. Carelessness is not courage.
-- Unknown
U.S. markets are set for a negative open following a 6.7% overnight decline of the Shanghai exchange. The Shanghai touched its lowest level in three months, and today's drop follows a 3% decline on Friday. Concerns of tighter monetary policy in China are driving the profit-taking, and the big drop is spooking our market, which is already lacking anything particularly positive.
Despite some good news lately from the likes of Intel (INTC) and Dell (DELL) and on the housing front, the major indices have been unable to make progress. The bullish view here is that this is just some healthy consolidation of an extended market that needs a rest. The bearish view is that the inability to rally further on good news is a sign that the market has priced in all the good news out there and is due for a more significant rest.
Last week's action had a bearish taint to it, but it wasn't quite bad enough to do any real technical damage. We simply stalled out, which may be the first step in a rollover or it may be just a pause that helps us consolidate and set up for further upside.
The bearish case here is pretty obvious. Many folks never believed the economic situation justified the strength we had off the March low. We are now in a seasonally weak time of the year and are unable to gain traction on good news.
The weakness in China is also significant because for much of the rally over the last few months, one of the bullish arguments was that strength in China and other overseas markets would be the real drivers that offset weakness in the U.S. Now that we are losing China, the U.S. will have to be the leader, and that is a very problematic contention for many.
I've been a bit slow in embracing the bearish view because the market has yet to do anything really negative. We just ran in place for a week, and that may prove to be a healthy thing, as has been the case a number of times since March. The fact that we haven't rallied on good news and that China is weak is definitely a warning. Also we have had a lot of "junk" running lately, and it isn't easy to find stocks that aren't in 3rd- or 4th-level bases.
These are good reasons to be negative, but we haven't yet seen real confirmation in the price action. This weak open will be a good test of the dip-buyers, who remain the key to this market. The bulls will have the edge until the dip-buyers weaken, but there is no mistaking the cracks in the action.
You never want to read too much into the open on Monday, so we'll see how things shape up -- still, increased defensiveness should be under consideration.
-----------------------------
Ülespoole avanevad:
M&A news: BJS +11.5% (Baker Hughes to acquire BJ Services in cash and stock or ~$17.94/share)... Other news: DCTH +31.6% (FDA grants Delcath orphan-drug designation for doxorubicin), POZN +13.3% (announces FDA acceptance of NDA For VIMOVO; $10 mln milestone earned), PACR +11.4% (enters into amended and restated credit agreement), MDCO +9.6% (announces new publication of data showing Angiomax reduces cardiac mortality and improves overall survival), SVA +7.9% (Sinovac Biotech's H1N1 Vaccine Passes Experts Evaluation Organized by SFDA), WIRE +5.3% (will replace Axsys Technologies in the S&P SmallCap 600), CBS +4.5% (CBS Corp reaches 65% sellout for Super Bowl - Media Week), ARG +4.1% (will replace Cooper Industries in the S&P 500), EXPO +3.1% (light volume; will replace Kirby in the S&P SmallCap 600), ATVI +2.7% (mentioned positively in Barron's), KEX +2.0% (light volume; will replace Airgas in the S&P MidCap 400), AZN +1.5% (announces that CRESTOR reduced risk of cardiovascular events in elderly patients in new analysis of Jupiter)... Analyst comments: KFN +7.7% (upgraded to Outperform from Mkt Perform at JMP Securities), GME +4.4% (raised to Conviction Buy from Buy by Goldman- DJ), CBI +1.9% (upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan).
Allapoole avanevad:
M&A news: BHI -3.2% (Baker Hughes to acquire BJ Services in cash and stock or ~$17.94/share), DIS -2.6% (Marvel Entertainment to be acquired by Disney for total of $30 per share in cash plus ~0.745 Disney share; transaction value is $50 per Marvel share)... Select financial names showing weakness: IRE -11.8% and AIB -8.4% (Ireland prepared to take majority stakes in banks - Sunday Business Post), AIG -9.2% (AIG weighing many options for ILFC: Sources - Reuters), FRE -7.1% and FNM -5.9% (Shares trade up on speculation; no underlying value remains - FBR Capital), BPOP -5.0%, GNW -3.9%, MBI -3.8%, C -3.4%, PMI -3.1%, HIG -3.0%, HBC -2.4%, MS -2.1% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA/Merrill), ING -1.7%, ABB -1.4%, JPM -1.4%, WFC -1.1%, GS -1.0%... Select oil/gas related names trading lower: ESV -3.0%, PBR -2.1%, SLB -1.9%, OXY -1.5%, COP -1.4%, XOM -1.1%... Select metals/mining names showing weakness: AU -3.2%, BHP -3.1%, GFI -2.7%, RTP -2.6%, ABX -2.4%, BBL -2.3%, VALE -2.3%, GG -2.2%, AUY -2.1%, MT -1.8%... Select China names trading lower following selloff in Shanghai: CHU -3.6%, SNP -2.9%, CHL -2.7%, BIDU -1.9%... Other news: KERX -16.5% (filed for a $40 mln common stock and warrants shelf offering), PNX -8.3% (Fitch downgraded the IFS ratings assigned to the life insurance subsidiaries of The Phoenix Companies), TSRA -6.2% (announced the Administrative Law Judge in the ITC issued an Initial Determination finding Tessera's asserted patents are valid, but not infringed by the respondents)... Analyst comments: SPF -5.6% (downgraded to Underperform from Market Perform at Raymond James), GENZ -3.7% (downgraded to Neutral at Baird), FICO -3.1% (ticking lower in early trade; hearing weakness attributed to downgrade before the open), AGO -2.5% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS).
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
8/31/2009 9:00 AM EDT
Caution is not cowardly. Carelessness is not courage.
-- Unknown
U.S. markets are set for a negative open following a 6.7% overnight decline of the Shanghai exchange. The Shanghai touched its lowest level in three months, and today's drop follows a 3% decline on Friday. Concerns of tighter monetary policy in China are driving the profit-taking, and the big drop is spooking our market, which is already lacking anything particularly positive.
Despite some good news lately from the likes of Intel (INTC) and Dell (DELL) and on the housing front, the major indices have been unable to make progress. The bullish view here is that this is just some healthy consolidation of an extended market that needs a rest. The bearish view is that the inability to rally further on good news is a sign that the market has priced in all the good news out there and is due for a more significant rest.
Last week's action had a bearish taint to it, but it wasn't quite bad enough to do any real technical damage. We simply stalled out, which may be the first step in a rollover or it may be just a pause that helps us consolidate and set up for further upside.
The bearish case here is pretty obvious. Many folks never believed the economic situation justified the strength we had off the March low. We are now in a seasonally weak time of the year and are unable to gain traction on good news.
The weakness in China is also significant because for much of the rally over the last few months, one of the bullish arguments was that strength in China and other overseas markets would be the real drivers that offset weakness in the U.S. Now that we are losing China, the U.S. will have to be the leader, and that is a very problematic contention for many.
I've been a bit slow in embracing the bearish view because the market has yet to do anything really negative. We just ran in place for a week, and that may prove to be a healthy thing, as has been the case a number of times since March. The fact that we haven't rallied on good news and that China is weak is definitely a warning. Also we have had a lot of "junk" running lately, and it isn't easy to find stocks that aren't in 3rd- or 4th-level bases.
These are good reasons to be negative, but we haven't yet seen real confirmation in the price action. This weak open will be a good test of the dip-buyers, who remain the key to this market. The bulls will have the edge until the dip-buyers weaken, but there is no mistaking the cracks in the action.
You never want to read too much into the open on Monday, so we'll see how things shape up -- still, increased defensiveness should be under consideration.
-----------------------------
Ülespoole avanevad:
M&A news: BJS +11.5% (Baker Hughes to acquire BJ Services in cash and stock or ~$17.94/share)... Other news: DCTH +31.6% (FDA grants Delcath orphan-drug designation for doxorubicin), POZN +13.3% (announces FDA acceptance of NDA For VIMOVO; $10 mln milestone earned), PACR +11.4% (enters into amended and restated credit agreement), MDCO +9.6% (announces new publication of data showing Angiomax reduces cardiac mortality and improves overall survival), SVA +7.9% (Sinovac Biotech's H1N1 Vaccine Passes Experts Evaluation Organized by SFDA), WIRE +5.3% (will replace Axsys Technologies in the S&P SmallCap 600), CBS +4.5% (CBS Corp reaches 65% sellout for Super Bowl - Media Week), ARG +4.1% (will replace Cooper Industries in the S&P 500), EXPO +3.1% (light volume; will replace Kirby in the S&P SmallCap 600), ATVI +2.7% (mentioned positively in Barron's), KEX +2.0% (light volume; will replace Airgas in the S&P MidCap 400), AZN +1.5% (announces that CRESTOR reduced risk of cardiovascular events in elderly patients in new analysis of Jupiter)... Analyst comments: KFN +7.7% (upgraded to Outperform from Mkt Perform at JMP Securities), GME +4.4% (raised to Conviction Buy from Buy by Goldman- DJ), CBI +1.9% (upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan).
Allapoole avanevad:
M&A news: BHI -3.2% (Baker Hughes to acquire BJ Services in cash and stock or ~$17.94/share), DIS -2.6% (Marvel Entertainment to be acquired by Disney for total of $30 per share in cash plus ~0.745 Disney share; transaction value is $50 per Marvel share)... Select financial names showing weakness: IRE -11.8% and AIB -8.4% (Ireland prepared to take majority stakes in banks - Sunday Business Post), AIG -9.2% (AIG weighing many options for ILFC: Sources - Reuters), FRE -7.1% and FNM -5.9% (Shares trade up on speculation; no underlying value remains - FBR Capital), BPOP -5.0%, GNW -3.9%, MBI -3.8%, C -3.4%, PMI -3.1%, HIG -3.0%, HBC -2.4%, MS -2.1% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA/Merrill), ING -1.7%, ABB -1.4%, JPM -1.4%, WFC -1.1%, GS -1.0%... Select oil/gas related names trading lower: ESV -3.0%, PBR -2.1%, SLB -1.9%, OXY -1.5%, COP -1.4%, XOM -1.1%... Select metals/mining names showing weakness: AU -3.2%, BHP -3.1%, GFI -2.7%, RTP -2.6%, ABX -2.4%, BBL -2.3%, VALE -2.3%, GG -2.2%, AUY -2.1%, MT -1.8%... Select China names trading lower following selloff in Shanghai: CHU -3.6%, SNP -2.9%, CHL -2.7%, BIDU -1.9%... Other news: KERX -16.5% (filed for a $40 mln common stock and warrants shelf offering), PNX -8.3% (Fitch downgraded the IFS ratings assigned to the life insurance subsidiaries of The Phoenix Companies), TSRA -6.2% (announced the Administrative Law Judge in the ITC issued an Initial Determination finding Tessera's asserted patents are valid, but not infringed by the respondents)... Analyst comments: SPF -5.6% (downgraded to Underperform from Market Perform at Raymond James), GENZ -3.7% (downgraded to Neutral at Baird), FICO -3.1% (ticking lower in early trade; hearing weakness attributed to downgrade before the open), AGO -2.5% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS).
Kust saab vaadata turgude kogukäivet päeva lõikes?
Nasdaq ja NYSE üsna adekvaatse flash charti saab näiteks selliselt lehelt: http://www.sharkinvesting.com/volume.aspx