Börsipäev 30. juuni

Investeerimine
1

Rev Shark:

Resist the Temptation to Game the News
6/30/05 8:56 AM ET

"Boldness is ever blind, for it sees not dangers and inconveniences whence it is bad in council though good in execution."

-- Francis Bacon

The great dilemma of the market is that we must risk losing money if we want to make money. If we are so careful and risk adverse that we have a very slight chance of losses, we also are assured of making paltry profits.

Big money is made in the market by being bold, but being bold doesn't mean we should act rashly. The key to aggressive action is knowing when the odds are in your favor. That means that there are going to be times when the market is likely to move big, but we must suppress our desire to make bold bets because we have no real edge and are just gambling.

Today is one of those days where you might be tempted to act aggressively but you have to carefully weigh whether the odds are in your favor. There are a lot of factors at work right now that have the potential to cause some major moves in the market, so is a big market bet today just plain rashness and bravado, or is it a carefully considered speculative bet with a good chance of success?

We have several events unfolding that make it particularly difficult to determine where the market is headed in the very short term. The most obvious is the FOMC interest rate decision. A quarter-point interest rate hike is widely anticipated but the real market mover will be the accompanying policy statement. Market participants will be looking hard for some clues as to how many more interest rate hikes the FOMC is likely to deliver.

There has been increased speculation lately that we are approaching the end of the cycle and that there may only be one or two hikes left. If the FOMC even hints that is true, it is likely to boost the market. However, if there is no change in the policy language, the market may be disappointed.

The policy statement is key, and betting on that is a very dangerous proposition because it is unclear what the market is expecting. It is even trickier than usual today because we also have the end of the quarter, which may induce some window dressing, and the upcoming long weekend. The market has a tendency to act well in front of the Fourth of July holiday but an awful lot of traders seem to be anticipating a pullback when they return to work next week (witness the selling action in big-cap like Google and Yahoo recently).

We have an upbeat open on the way bolstered by a big bank merger and market-friendly economic news. Overseas markets are mostly higher while oil trading down again.

Gary B. Smith:


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Eelmine nädal hoiatas HOTT nõrgema kvartali eest. Samas on neid kes leiavad, et kõik halb on juba hinnas sees, kõige mustema stsenaariumiga on arvestatud ja tegu hea ostukohaga. Igatahes sai HOTT viimase laksu veel eelmise nädala lõpu üldise turulangusega. Sel nädalal on aktsia juba põhjast punkti tõusnud ja pidas ka eile õhtul hästi vastu, ajal mil turul oli jälle üldine müügisurve. Wachovia hinnasiht on $28-30.

D: Endal positsiooni (veel) pole. Vaatan kui FOMC, kvartali lõpp ja pikk nädalavahetus möödas ning rong veel otsapidi jaamas, siis võibolla.




3
esmaspäeval 4.juuli on USA turud kinni. Kas homme, st reedel 1.juulil on turud lahti?
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Lahti jah. Pühasid näed siit: http://www.nasdaq.com/about/schedule.stm


P.S. seda ülemist kaarti näeb paremini kui see endale kõvakettale salvestada.
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HOTT Short % juuni algusest 17.80%, teatab finance.yahoo.com
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NOK pole prognoose tõstnud ja nüüd ligi 2% langenud
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Võiks taas LHV chatti elustada, tulge sisse.
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Olin vahepeal turult eemal. Juuni lõpus mainitud HOTT on teinud vahepeal väikse tõusukese ja vajus täna hoogsalt uuesti viimaste põhjade juurde. Näis kuidas päev lõpeb.

Vahepealsetest uudistest. Morgan Keegan on HOTTi downgrade'inud Underperformi peale. Enne oli Mkt Perform. "Firm says that given the recent chinese embargoes and the possibility of more in the near-term, they believe that for retailers who have not finished their buys in China, this will hurt their inventory position and cost them more to source these good elsewhere, if possible. Second, they are concerned that recent sharp increases in energy prices will negatively impact consumer spending."

Positiivsema poole pealt:
"SG Gowen notes that based on in-line June comp store sales results and slight indications of improvements in 2certain categories, they maintain their favorable investment view which looks for accelerating comp trends and meaningful opportunity for positive earnings revisions as HOTT faces easier compares in the upcoming back-to-school season. While shares may remain range-bound in the near-term given the increasingly back-end growth loaded nature of Q2 earnings, they continue to believe the shares have potential to outperform the mkt by at least +25% over the next 12 months given lean inventories, a more benign fashion environment for the co, robust full-price selling trends at Torrid, and potentially conservative comp and operating margin assumptions for H2."

Majandustulemused praeguse info järgi 17. augustil.