LHV Pro viimane soovitus Sigma Design (SIGM) on saanud järjekorde kiitva hinnangu BWS Financialilt. Tegemist on tõsise Sigma pulliga, nende hinnasiht on $100. Meie hinnasiht on oluliselt konservatiivsem, jättes ikkagi ruumi tugevaks tõusuks. Aktsia maksab praegu $46.5.
BWS Financial notes SIGM could be due for a big gain when the co reports fiscal fourth quarter results in Feb. Deutsche Telekom (DT) ended 2007 with 150 thousand IPTV subscribers, of which 116 thousand were connected at the end of the year. The remainder would be connected in Jan; the month of SIGM's year end. The ramp in IPTV is starting to become a material number to carriers and SIGM. AT&T (T) added 105 thousand IPTV subscribers in the fourth quarter, and has increased its weekly install rate to 12 thousand. Verizon (VZ) elected to use the Company's ultra wideband ("UWB") processor for their IPTV service. Firm believes the Street continues to neglect the leadership value of SIGM and the growth of IPTV in their valuation of SIGM shares.
By Rev Shark RealMoney.com Contributor 1/30/2008 8:16 AM EST
The economy depends about as much on economists as the weather does on weather forecasters. -- Jean-Paul Kauffmann
With the Federal Open Market Committee scheduled to release its interest rate decision at 2:15 p.m. EST today, the question on the minds of investors is whether more rate cuts are going to stop the economy from sliding into a recession. The market has found some support over the past week following a cut of 0.75 percentage points, and now the issue is whether another cut will boost us even further.
What complicates matters this time is that many feel that the Fed was duped into a hasty decision last week by the rogue trading scandal at French bank Societe Generale. Although another rate cut is widely anticipated, the thinking is that the Fed may be less aggressive in order to prove that it isn't simply reacting to moves in the equity market.
Our job this morning is to try to figure out how this market is going to react to the Fed. Although the general consensus is that Ben Bernanke and his crew will deliver a half-point cut, there is a large contingent that believes we may only see a quarter-point of relief.
If we do get a half-point cut, there seems to be a fairly high level of doubt among many market players that it is going to keep this market running. The bearish thinking is that another sizable cut is simply confirmation that we really are in trouble and that the Fed is scrambling to catch up. A quarter-point cut may be viewed as even worse, as it proves that the Fed really doesn't know what it is doing and is even further behind the curve now.
The bullish argument for a positive reaction to the Fed boils down to the old adage "don't fight the Fed." If the Fed is cutting, that means cheap money, and that is going to flow somewhere. In 2001 and 2002, the cheap money the Fed created went into real estate and caused the bubble and collapse that we are now dealing with.
The problem with rate cuts is that there is a substantial lag effect -- they aren't going to have a real impact for many months. That means that economic data are likely to get worse before they get better. Therefore, whether a rate cut boosts us in the short term is much more a function of psychology than anything substantive.
I'm concerned that the psychology of the market, even with another Fed cut, is not sufficiently positive to end the recent downtrend and put us on an upward trajectory. I'll be happy to be proved wrong, but from my standpoint, the downtrend is still intact; it is going to take a very positive and sustained reaction to the Fed to change that.
We have a soft start on the way as Yahoo! (YHOO) posted disappointing earnings, UBS (UBS ) takes a big subprime debt write-off and nervousness grows over the potency over the Fed. Buckle on your trading helmet and adjust your goggles -- we should have some fireworks this afternoon.
----------------------------- Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: PXLW +25.0% (also announces "Modified Dutch Auction" tender offer for up to $50 million principal amount of its convertible debt securities), SLAB +11.9%, TUP +10.9%, HLIT +9.2%, WBSN +8.2%, BBOX +7.8%, CYBS +7.1%, EGLT +7.0% (also upgraded to Buy at Broadpoint), RHI +6.3%, FTD +6.3%, JBHT +6.1%, DSPG +4.8%, DOV +4.2%, AUO +4.2%, NEXC +3.5% (also acquires the Great American Cookie Company and expects to be accretive beginning in 2008), FLEX +3.3%, CALD +3.1%, RCL +2.8%, CSGS +2.8%, EK +2.2%, NETL +2.1%, SO +1.3%... M&A news: NUCO +16.3% (signs merger agreement with affiliates of Aurora Capital Group; shareholders to receive $30/share in all-cash offer)... Select drybulk names trading higher after Baltic Dry Index surges 5.1%, largest gain in 2 years - Bloomberg: DRYS +4.1%, TBSI +3.9%, EXM +3.5%, NM +2.6%... Other news: MAGS +16.7% (receives orders of approximately $45 mln to protect critical infrastructure facilities), PEIX +7.7% (among four companies selected by US Department of Energy to research commercial cellulose technology), RMBS +6.5% (might collect royalties of as much as $10 bln by winning a seven year fight with Hynix Semiconductor- Bloomberg), ETFC +6.3% (moves higher on insider purchases), GOLD +4.3% (still checking), CROX +4.2% (still checking), BHP +1.7% and RTP +1.5% (trade higher on talks that RTP books opened to BHP - Reuters), GFI +1.3% (still checking), LEH +1.1% (increases dividend; continues common stock repurchase program)... Analyst upgrades: ZQK +4.8% (upgraded to Overweight at JPMorgan), ALB +3.2% (upgraded to Buy at UBS), CSIQ +2.6% (upgraded to Outperform at Oppenheimer).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to weak earnings/guidance: CLZR -21.6%, ALGN -20.7%, CYMI -19.3% (also downgraded to Hold at Brean Murray), HTCH -18.7% (also downgraded to Sell at Brean Murray), NATI -12.1% (also downgraded to Sell at Citigroup), CAB -11.5% (also downgraded to Mkt Perform at Wachovia), YHOO -10.0% (also downgraded to Hold at Citigroup, downgraded to Perform at Oppenheimer), BHI -6.0%, FDRY -5.5%, CTX -4.6% (also downgraded to Neutral at UBS), SLGN -3.7%, ADVNB -3.6%, MRK -3.2%, ITW -3.2%, HIFN -3.2%, AGN -3.1%, TRMB -2.3%, SAP -1.7%, WWW -1.6%, UPS -1.3%, BA -1.2%... Select Chinese names trading lower with weakness in overseas trading: LFC -5.8%, PTR -4.3%, CHL -4.0%, ACH -3.7%... Other news: HWAY -14.1% (Credit Suisse says would not be surprised to see stock settle in the low to mid $50s over the near term), RBS -2.8% (down in sympathy with UBS), ABK -2.6% (declares dividend of $0.07 per share, down from last qtr's dividend of $0.21), UBS -2.4% (to post record full-year loss on further mortgage write-downs), HK -1.2% (announces 18 mln share offering priced at $15 per share), SU -1.2% (Alberta says reaches royalty agreement with SU; says SU to pay 20% more royalties under new deal, talks continue - Reuters)... Analyst downgrades: COLM -4.2% (downgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan), S -3.5 (tgt lowered at Deutsche Bank), SMG -3.5% (downgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan), MER -1.9% (downgraded to Underperform at Oppenheimer), CNX -1.4% (downgraded to Outperform from Strong Buy at Raymond James), HAFC -1.1% (downgraded to Underperform at Oppenheimer).
BW on tegelikult äärmiselt huvitav firma ja iseenesest aktsia kukkumine on tervitatav nähtus (uute investorite seisukohast). Oma majandustulemused teatab ettevõte 8. veebruaril enne turu avanemist ning üldine ootus EPSi osas on 40 senti. See võib isegi pisut optimistlik olla, arvestades, et ettevõtte enda varasem prognoos oli $0.50 kuni $0.60, millele 21. detsembril lisati, et seoses ühe võtmekliendi erinõudmistega ruteeniumiäris, madalamate ruteeniumi hindadega ning nõrkusega ettevõtte ühes tootesegmendis tuleb 4. kvartalis arvestada nende sündmuste tulemusena kumuleeritult $0.20se negatiivse efektiga varasemale prognoosile.
Samas, negatiivsed uudised on väljas (või võimalik, et on lõplikult väljas ust pärast kvartalitulemuste teatamist) ning iga väiksemgi positiivne infokild aitaks aktsial kenasti tõusta. Pikemas perspektiivis ma usun, et vertikaalselt salvestavate meediatoodete võimuletulek on paratamatu ning aja jooksul kajastub see ka BW tulemustes. Kuid tasub kindlasti kannatust varuda.
Võin veel öelda, et BW on nii mõnegi analüüsimaja Top Pick’iks.
Altria tulemused esmapilgul head, mõlema üksuse kõrge dividendide väljamakse ning aktsiate tagasiostuprogramm kokku $20.5 miljardi ulatuses on investorile tulevikus atraktiivsed präänikud. Pro all homme juba lähemalt.
The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to lower its target for the federal funds rate 50 basis points to 3 percent.
Financial markets remain under considerable stress, and credit has tightened further for some businesses and households. Moreover, recent information indicates a deepening of the housing contraction as well as some softening in labor markets.
The Committee expects inflation to moderate in coming quarters, but it will be necessary to continue to monitor inflation developments carefully.
Today’s policy action, combined with those taken earlier, should help to promote moderate growth over time and to mitigate the risks to economic activity. However, downside risks to growth remain. The Committee will continue to assess the effects of financial and other developments on economic prospects and will act in a timely manner as needed to address those risks.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Donald L. Kohn; Randall S. Kroszner; Frederic S. Mishkin; Sandra Pianalto; Charles I. Plosser; Gary H. Stern; and Kevin M. Warsh. Voting against was Richard W. Fisher, who preferred no change in the target for the federal funds rate at this meeting.
In a related action, the Board of Governors unanimously approved a 50-basis-point decrease in the discount rate to 3-1/2 percent. In taking this action, the Board approved the requests submitted by the Boards of Directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Atlanta, Chicago, St. Louis, Kansas City, and San Francisco.
Infovood, mis Traderit Föderaalreservi otsuse järgselt läbivad on mõnikord lihtsalt nii suured, et tõesti ei näita kõiki hindu enam. Mul aitas selle vastu kenasti Traderi sulgemine ja uuesti avamine.
