Futuurid tublis roheluses ning tundub, et G. W'd näeme televiisoris veel järgmised 4 aastat. Nafta on hüpanud jälle tagasi $50 bärjääri peale ning dollar istub väikeses rohelises euro vastu.
Suuri uudiseid ei ole ning kui ma peaksin valima, siis müüksin päeva alguse tugevust agresssiivselt. Stem-cellid on täna jälle in-play, kuna vabariiklased on tulihingeliselt antud tüüpi researchi vastu. Samas läks eile õhtul hääletamisel läbi Proposition 71, mis lubab Californial toeatada stem-cellidega seotud uurimistööd. Tough-call.
Suured indeksid ei näe küll head välja (briefing.com):
Selle nädala 1 straddle idee IACI, tulemused väljas ...
Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.24 per share, $0.03 better than the Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.21; revenues rose 12.6% year/year to $1.5 bln vs the $1.5 bln consensus. Company reaffirms Y04 outlook of Operating Income Before Amortization of approximately $1 billion and operating income of approximately $430 million.
Although the Democrats aren't quite ready to admit it, the Republicans won quite decisively. The market is feeling very good and gapping up big this morning. There still are some disputes and Sen. Kerry hasn't conceded yet but the market and most pundits are very confident that President Bush has the election wrapped up.
The exit polls that seemed to be forecasting a Kerry landslide yesterday turned out to be just plain wrong. The conventional belief that the big jump in voter registration would favor Kerry also turned out to be dead wrong as seen in Florida, where the Bush victory margin was quite comfortable.
The Republicans not only wrapped up the White House but tightened their hold on Congress. In addition, Bush has a solid lead in the popular vote as well as the likely win in the Electoral College. Even the Senate minority leader, Tom Daschle, lost his bid for reelection. It is a very clear victor for the Republican party and the market is moving up big this morning in celebration.
The euphoric reaction this morning is probably due in part to simply having matters settled but it also helps that voters are showing a clear preference for the Republican agenda, which is viewed as more friendly to Wall Street.
With victory comes great responsibility. The bar has now been raised and it is time to fulfill the promises that have been made. I suspect it won't take long for the market to settle down and start focusing on the many hurdles we still have in front of us. Be very careful about chasing this big open. The market is obviously feeling very good but if you look at the market over the past couple weeks it looks like this result has been predicted to some extent already, particularly by the Nasdaq.
I remain quite optimistic about a solid year-end rally but it will be more healthy if we don't use up too much energy at this point doing a victory dance. I'm hopeful the market will settle down fairly fast and do a little base-building rather than fly straight up.
Obviously the primary focus is on the election this morning but make sure you keep an eye on oil prices, which are rising again. However right now the primary concern for many is that they not be left out of the celebration.
Like many I stayed up way too late last night and am not completely focused. We have some interesting trading ahead of us and we have to concentrate on opportunities rather than dissecting the news.
Minu ennustus: NOK kasvatab oma turuosa USAs 4. kv-s margatavalt. Peale uue marketingibossi toolehakkamist on naha teles asjalikke nokia mudeleid asjalike saadete vahel - see on suur asi. Usun, et edu ei jaa tulemata.
kristjan, ma tegelikult küsisin õnge mitte kala :)
Minu jaoks on ikkagi küsimus umbes selline, et kuidas sa sellise numbri saad. Ütleme, et IACI novembri $25 call. Oli 0.2..0.3 kui aktsia maksis $22, nüüd kus aktsia maksab 10% rohkem, on call kui palju kallim? Ma tean, et valem on keeruline kuid mingi rusikareegel postitada oleks abiks.
Ahaa, mul oli tookord Pros asja lugedes see küsimus ka, et miks just 22,50ne straddle oli su valik? Arvatavast oli see odavaim võtta aga igaks juhuks küsin üle.
Drug stocks are strong on Bush victory: PFE +4.9%, AZN +4.5% (also Lehman upgrade), WYE +4.5%, PPH +4%, AMGN +3.5%..... Up on strong earnings/guidance: IACI +9.3%, KOSP +14%, ALVR +8.1%.... Other News: MTSX +8.4% (defense tech co up on Bush win), COGT +7.4% (multiple initiations), WLDA +6.3% (holders convert $1 mln debentures), DNDN +6% (achieves commercial scale of antigen for Provenge), TZOO +5.3% (bounces after 6 pt drop yesterday; short covering), ISON +5% (homeland security stock up on Bush win), LONG +4.6% (continues recent momentum), ODSY +4.5% (continues 13% move yesterday), AIRT +4.2%, NFLX +3.9%, NSM +3.8%, MLNM +3.7% (Granted fast track status by FDA), STM +3.7% (co's kit to power Enel's next-generation electricity meters).... Under $3: EGHT +16% (signs retail agreement with CompUSA), PRTL +7.7%, IVAN +5.3%, CIEN +4.9%.
Gapping Down
Stocks weak on Bush victory: STEM -17%, ASTM -14%, GERN -8.5%, BLDP -3% (co also reports Q3), FCEL -2.4%.... Other News: MOGN -6.3%, CFC -4% (guides for FY05), IDNX -2.6% (JP Morgan downgrade), NTLI -2% (reports Q3).
