- USA futuurid on enne turu avanemist kerges plussis. Nasdaqi futuurid on 2,4 punkti plussis, S&P 500 4,5 punkti. Kell 17.00 on oodata märtsi ehituskulutuste numbrit ning aprilli ISM raportit. Teisipäeval koguneb Föderaalreservi Nõukogu, kuid intressimäärade muutust sealt ei oodata.
-Semiconductors Industry Association avaldas märtsikuu pooljuhtide sektori koondmüüginumbri, kolme kuu keskmine näitaja kerkis 32,3% 16,3 miljardile dollarile. Eelmisel nädalal tugevalt kannatanud pooljuhtide indeks on täna eelturul kerges plussis (+0,9%).
-Tarkvaratootja Adobe Systems (ADBE) on eelturul üle 5% plussis. Firma ootab teiselt fiskaalkvartalilt prognoositust paremaid tulemusi, nõudlus firma toodete järele on tugev.
-Pfizer (PFE) juht Hank McKinell rääkis Financial Times`le, et plaanitakse üle võtta mitmeid biotehnoloogia firmasid. Firma enda ravimite patendid hakkavad aeguma.
Rev Shark:
After the worst single week for the Nasdaq since April 22-26, 2002, should we be optimistic that the worst is over? A drop of 139 points, or 6.3%, certainly seems a bit extreme, but is now a time to be resolute and confident that the worst is over?
Yes, we may be due for a respite from last week's pain, but fighting the downward momentum that has developed is an extremely dangerous task. Some will tell you that when things become overly negative a rally is likely, but the optimists have a tendency of overestimating the level of pessimism.
Let's look at what happened following the last big down week at the end of April 2002. First note that the carnage last week and in April 2002 came after the market had already been downtrending for a while. The pullback did not occur immediately following recent highs.
After the 7.4% drop in April 2002, the Nasdaq sold off 7 points the following Monday before bouncing 31 points on Tuesday. That bounce on Tuesday made an ideal spot to put on short positions. In the following four days, the Nasdaq dropped 130 points before producing a meaningful bounce. That second bounce of almost 200 points was the last gasp before the Nasdaq traded straight down over 600 points and finally bottomed out in October 2002.
Certainly the fundamental situation is much different than it was in 2002, but the lesson to be learned is that bravery in the face of downward momentum is foolish. Yes, a bounce is likely to occur when the market has sold off as fast and as hard as it did last week, but we certainly can't be trusting of a brief respite.
The bulls will tell you that things are quite different this time. The economy is steadily recovering, the job market is looking better and companies are posting healthy earnings reports. However, the interest rate issue casts a huge shadow over the market. Bullish pundits will tell you why you don't have to worry too much about this issue, but the market doesn't listen to logic; it runs on emotion.
Stay extremely wary. The intermediate uptrend in the Nasdaq is dead. The close below the 200-day simple moving average does not bode well. There is major support at 1900, but if that falls it is anyone's guess how far we will continue to correct.
We have a little bounce shaping up in the early going. The market will be focusing on the FOMC interest rate decision tomorrow afternoon. Obviously, this market has been pricing in an interest rate hike in recent days. The big question is what the Fed will say to influence the prevailing beliefs about rate hikes. Do they change their bias and prepare us for the inevitable, or do they attempt to soothe and calm us and tell us they will continue to be patient? That is the issue we are grappling with today. There are few other catalysts out there to drive this market, which leaves us at the mercy of Big Al and his crew.
European markets continued to struggle overnight, but chip stocks bounced a bit on positive data on trends. The dollar is mixed, oil and gold are up and bonds are struggling. We have construction spending, ISM data and vehicle sales reports due out at 10 a.m. EDT.
Be careful. A bounce of some sort is likely, but don't fight the downward momentum that has been building.
Gary B. Smith:
