Täna on FBR Capital Markets analüütikud väljas positiivse reitingumuutusega National Semiconductor Corporat (NSM)- i kohta.
FBR tõstab NSM-i aktsiate reitingu „hoia“ pealt „osta“ peale ja hinnasihi $17,50 pealt $20 peale.
Upgrading NSM to Outperform and raising price target to $20. We are upgrading shares of National Semi from Market Perform to Outperform and are raising our price target from $17.50 to $20. Shares of NSM have vastly underperformed peers over the past 12 and 24 months , and we think investors should buy low. Further, expectations on NSM remain muted as evidenced by the stock's still-attractive 9x P/E (2011 GAAP) on EPS estimates, which could improve if the firm stops losing market share to TI and Maxim, the firm has a new CEO in Don Macleod, and National has identified a plan to regain some lost handset analog market share. Also, the firm pays a solid 2.5% dividend yield, and is heavily exposed to very Favorale chip trends in analog power management, industrial, automotive, LED lighting, solar, medical imaging, and others. We do think risk/reward is favorable on shares with downside risk to $11 in a choppy market, and upside opportunity over time towards $25 (16x P/E on $1.60 of EPS).
Analüütikud juhivad tähelepanu sellele, et NSM aktsia on konkurentidega võrreldes viimase 12-24 kuu vältel konkurentidest märksa halvemini esinenud ning seetõttu usuvad nad, et hetke hinnatase pakub investoritele soodsat ostukohta. Analüütikute sõnul on firmal olemas plaan kaotatud turuosa tagasivõitmiseks ning uue CEO käe all võib olukord paraneda. Firma toodab kiipe hetkel kiirelt kasvavatele sektoritele nagu näiteks autotööstus, LED-valgustus, päikeseenergia sektor jt. Analüütikute arvates on NSM näol tegemist aktsiaga, kus risk on üsna väike ( kehva turul $11 tase), aga teisest küljest näevad analüütikud pikemas perspektiivis aktsiahinnaks $25.
4Q results preview: Results likely tracking in line to slightly better than Street estimates. National Semi will report calendar 4Q10 financial results Thursday after the market close. We believe National’s 4Q revenues tracked near the midpoint of guidance (revenues of $398 million), about in line with the Street’s $399 million. Our 4Q EPS estimate of $0.34 is two pennies better than the Street estimate given our view that gross margins will again be robust, and possibly better than management’s 68% to 70% guidance.
1Q guidance preview: Guidance likely in line to slightly better than Street estimates. We think National’s calendar 1Q11 revenues will decline about 5% sequentially, which suggests a possible revenue guidance range of $380 million to $395 million, slightly better than the Street estimate of $382 million. Also, we think gross margins can sustain in the 68% to 69% range and note that our calendar 1Q EPS estimate of $0.32 is $0.03 better than the Street estimate.
Firma teatab järgmise nädala neljapäeval oma neljanda kvartali tulemustest ning analüütikud usuvad, et need tulevad ka vastavalt ootustele. Esimese kvartali prognoos tuleb analüütikute ootuste kohaselt ilmselt konsensusest isegi natukene parem.
Eile tegi aktsia koos turuga läbi korraliku ralli ja seetõttu ei soovitaks ma liiga kõrge hinnaga aktsiat osta. Hetkel on turg roheline, aga täna 15.30 meie aja järgi teatatakse ka USA novembrikuu tööjõuraport, mis võib turu suunda oluliselt muuta.
