Orkaan Katrina tõttu täna nafta koguni 3 USD kallim (+4.6%), turud miinuses (kuid põhjadest juba veidi kosunud). Hetkeks käis naftahind barreli kohta ka $70 peal ära.
Orkaan peaks New Orleansi jõudma 20.00 paiku meie aja järgi, 1.3 miljonit elanikku New Orleansist sunnitud evakueeruma, halvimal juhul mitmeid kuid linn vee all.
Eelinfo:
Aktiivset tegevust alustab Investorite Liit
09:57, 29. august 2005
TALLINN, 29. august, BNS - Järgmisest nädalast alustab aktiivset tegevust Investorite Liit, mille peamine eesmärk on Eesti investeerimismaastiku tutvustamine ning investorite huvide kaitsmine nii ettevõtete osanike väärkohtlemisel.
"Kutsume liidu liikmeteks kõiki neid inimesi, kes tahavad aktiivselt osaleda Eesti investeerimismaastiku kujundamisel. Esimest korda saavad Eestis ühendatud suure hulga investorite huvid," ütles liidu juhatuse liige Heldur Meerits.
Liidu liikmeteks on oodatud nii kõik Tallinna börsil noteeritud firmade aktsiatesse, aktsia- ning pensionifondidesse kui ka mitte noteeritud ettevõtete aktsiatesse investeerimisest huvitatud eraisikud. Liikme aastamaks on 500 krooni.
Aktiivset tegevust alustab Investorite Liit
09:57, 29. august 2005
TALLINN, 29. august, BNS - Järgmisest nädalast alustab aktiivset tegevust Investorite Liit, mille peamine eesmärk on Eesti investeerimismaastiku tutvustamine ning investorite huvide kaitsmine nii ettevõtete osanike väärkohtlemisel.
"Kutsume liidu liikmeteks kõiki neid inimesi, kes tahavad aktiivselt osaleda Eesti investeerimismaastiku kujundamisel. Esimest korda saavad Eestis ühendatud suure hulga investorite huvid," ütles liidu juhatuse liige Heldur Meerits.
Liidu liikmeteks on oodatud nii kõik Tallinna börsil noteeritud firmade aktsiatesse, aktsia- ning pensionifondidesse kui ka mitte noteeritud ettevõtete aktsiatesse investeerimisest huvitatud eraisikud. Liikme aastamaks on 500 krooni.
No kell 20 istume siis kõik telerite ette CNN live-shoud vaatama :-)
Eh-ee, Investorit Liit võiks esimese asjana koondada omaaegsete Ühispanga väikeaktsionäride nõudmised Ain H vastu. Jagaks selle 700M omavahel ära. :-)
Täna olla Tallinki aktsia tõusnud,nii et võib olla juba 800M.See on nüüd klassikaline class action mida USA firmade vastu kogu aeg viljeldakse ja mida siis advokaadi bürood ise esile kutsuvad. Arvestades advokaatide viimase aja ühinemislaineid(pankrotilaineid) ei 6tohikds huvilistest puudust olla.Samas meie juristide tase ja seadustike puudulikkus jääb nähtavasti takistuseks.
Class-actionist rääkides, LHV Arbitrage kohtuvaidlus Ühispanga vastu veel lahenduseta, nimelt kaebasime kohtusse Ühsipanga ülevõtmispakkumise tõttu, pidades hinda ebaõiglaseks. See Tallinki juhtub lisab vürtsi sinna kindlasti.
Minu meelest see A. H. juhtum annab selgelt tooni, miks EYP aktsiad sai odavalt ära võetud!
Pankurid ei näinud tulu terendamas pangale, kuid targu jätsid tulu enda tagataskusse tiksuma :P
Pankurid ei näinud tulu terendamas pangale, kuid targu jätsid tulu enda tagataskusse tiksuma :P
Briefing.com...
Katrina cuts oil output by a third -- Reuters According to Reuters, U.S. energy companies said U.S. Gulf of Mexico crude oil output was cut by more than one-third on Saturday as Hurricane Katrina appeared poised to charge through central production areas toward New Orleans. The Gulf of Mexico is home to roughly a quarter of U.S. domestic oil and gas output, with a capacity to produce about 1.5 million barrels per day of crude and 12.3 billion cubic feet per day of gas. As of Saturday, 563,000 barrels daily crude output had been shut in due to the threatening storm. Shell Oil Co, which was evacuating all 1,019 of its offshore workers in the central and eastern Gulf on Saturday, had the bulk of closed Gulf daily oil production, with 420,000 barrels turned off. Shell also said 1.345 billion cubic feet per day, or Bfd, of natural gas had been shut by Saturday. Total daily Gulf natural gas output shut on Saturday was 1.9 billion cubic feet.
Tegelt tuleb nüüd tagantjärele igasuguseid ÜP luukeresid kapist välja. Tuleb välja, et omal ajal teadsid kõik, et ÜP mehed võtavad altkäemaksu. ...ja mina, rumal, imestasin, miks HP peetakse heaks pangaks ja ÜP kahtlaseks pangaks!
Kas keegi üldse mäletab mitmest pangast ÜP kokku klopsiti ja mitu panka hiljem veel üle võeti?
Ei mäleta kahjuks, mitmest pangast ühine pank kokku klopsiti aga pakun, et "kuraditosin" 13!
CNBC reports that Hurricane Andrew had been the most costly hurricane in U.S. with insured losses of $20 bln. Katrina is seen topping this with up to $30 bln in insured losses.
"Hurricanes can't make you money. That trade never works," Jim Cramer said Friday on his "Mad Money" TV show. "But, you can always make money off of people acting stupidly. You've got to own Montpelier Re Holdings. Cramer said insurance companies always have to pay out during hurricane season, and they manage for that. "That's what they do. They're in the insurance business!" An expected hurricane shouldn't have any effect on their earnings forecasts, he said. Cramer prefers Montpelier as opposed to American International Group.
Live coverage: http://www.wdsu.com/video/4907831/detail.html
Suurim probleem on tohutu storm surge - üleujutus, mis tekib ülimadala õhurõhu tõttu tormi keskmes üles tõusnud veest. Tõusulaine kõrguseks ennustatakse 45-55 jalga (jalg käib meetriteks u. kolmeks jagamise kaudu ehk siis ca. 15 meetrit). Mehhiko lahel olev meteopoi registreeris hiljuti 47 jala kõrguse tormilaine (laine selle "tavalises" mõttes - mitte tõusulaine).
Taifuunid on lahendad. Kaugelt vaadatuna.
Suurim probleem on tohutu storm surge - üleujutus, mis tekib ülimadala õhurõhu tõttu tormi keskmes üles tõusnud veest. Tõusulaine kõrguseks ennustatakse 45-55 jalga (jalg käib meetriteks u. kolmeks jagamise kaudu ehk siis ca. 15 meetrit). Mehhiko lahel olev meteopoi registreeris hiljuti 47 jala kõrguse tormilaine (laine selle "tavalises" mõttes - mitte tõusulaine).
Taifuunid on lahendad. Kaugelt vaadatuna.
Sügis hakkab kätte jõudma, aeg taas LHV chatiga alustada. Täna teemaks orkaan, ootame kõiki chatti.
Gapping Up
Hurricane-related stock moving higher on Katrina hitting New Orleans: ABIX +26%, TAYD +15%, IPII +13%.... Small cap energy plays running on Katrina: BDCO +15%, NGAS +13%, FUEL +13%, ABLE +9.4%, CNR +9.3%, ROYL +8%, IVAN +8%, GW +6%, Large cap energy also moving: SU +7%, SII +7%, CHK +4.6%, PTF +4%, VLO +3.3%, BP +3.1%, HAL +3%, FRO +3%, COP +2.6%... Alternative energy/fuel cell stocks also moving in part on Katrina: CPST +15% (also First Albany upgrade; tgt $6), MCEL +13% (also awarded Phase II funding), ENER +3.5%... Other News: NXXI +49% (FDA approves claim), NDC +7.3% (to be acquired by PSTI), MUSE +6% (Deutsche upgrade; $9 tgt), JOYG +3% (to join S&P 400), HD +2.6% (hurricane), LOW +2% (same), BMHC +2.7% (same).
Gapping Down
Casino stocks weak on Hurricane Katrina: ISLE -6.7%, BYD -3.1%, LVS -2.4%... Insurance stocks also weak: AIG -2.3%, ALL -1.8%... Other News: NWAC -6% (continued strike concerns), ELN -2.3%.
Hurricane-related stock moving higher on Katrina hitting New Orleans: ABIX +26%, TAYD +15%, IPII +13%.... Small cap energy plays running on Katrina: BDCO +15%, NGAS +13%, FUEL +13%, ABLE +9.4%, CNR +9.3%, ROYL +8%, IVAN +8%, GW +6%, Large cap energy also moving: SU +7%, SII +7%, CHK +4.6%, PTF +4%, VLO +3.3%, BP +3.1%, HAL +3%, FRO +3%, COP +2.6%... Alternative energy/fuel cell stocks also moving in part on Katrina: CPST +15% (also First Albany upgrade; tgt $6), MCEL +13% (also awarded Phase II funding), ENER +3.5%... Other News: NXXI +49% (FDA approves claim), NDC +7.3% (to be acquired by PSTI), MUSE +6% (Deutsche upgrade; $9 tgt), JOYG +3% (to join S&P 400), HD +2.6% (hurricane), LOW +2% (same), BMHC +2.7% (same).
Gapping Down
Casino stocks weak on Hurricane Katrina: ISLE -6.7%, BYD -3.1%, LVS -2.4%... Insurance stocks also weak: AIG -2.3%, ALL -1.8%... Other News: NWAC -6% (continued strike concerns), ELN -2.3%.
Dennis Leontyev is the Options Strategist and Editor of Hamzei Analytics HOTS Newsletter.
Equity markets have been in a slow choppy decline for over three weeks. Volume is running below average and internals are in line with a typical summer correction action. So far stocks has been acting like a usual correction in a bull market, but this is about to change starting Monday morning. Katrina will probably have a dramatic short-term effect on several asset classes. Usually an event like this creates a panic-type situation, which is a necessary ingredient for a bottom (even if it is a very short-term bottom). Since a lot will depend on this event, I would like to concentrate on event driven trading in this update.
This time the event is a hurricane called Katrina, which can potentially kill a lot of people, damage one of the US cities and ruin 1/4 of energy business and a major port. So, what action makes financial sense? The obvious, of course:
1. Unleaded gas will go up because some of the refineries are damaged
2. Crude oil will go up because the port is damaged and infrastructure is damaged
3. Equities should go down because this has a negative impact on the economy.
4. Bonds will go up because they will represent safety.
5. U.S. Dollar will go down, because New Orleans is located in the US.
That is it. A trader does not need to know anything else. This is Finance 101 at work. So, all I need to do as a trader then is the following: Buy Oil and Bonds, Sell Stocks and U.S. Dollar.
Now, 24 hours later the event is over (let's assume that was a bad event).
A trader is long oil and bonds and short stocks and U.S. Dollar. What to do now?
And now everything is returning to normal and the event is over. So a trader needs to justify his holding by something other then event. If he can't do it, he gets rid of them, and by doing so, he returns those markets to levels where they were right before the event. They always come back to pre-event levels.
Does anybody actually think that intelligent and successful traders in the institutional world do what I just described? Of course not. These event-driven moves are done by two forces:
1. FEAR because if you are on the other side of this so-called basic logic, you have to cover your position or
2. All a trader took in college is Finance 101 and a trader doesn't know any better, and actually believes that Katrina will move the market according to logic on a long-term basis.
These moves are made by short-term traders. Some of them will capitalize on the event and some will not. But these events never have lasting effects of more then a few hours (maybe a couple of days). On Monday or Tuesday an I-Bank portfolio manager will call a meeting and ask his VPs who manage $50Billion whether we need to change our allocations to asset classes like Bonds, Equities, Currencies and Energy based on Katrina. What do you think they will decide to do? Nothing. They will not change anything, and therefore the market will proceed to do what it intended to do before the event. And before the event the stock market was searching for a short-term bottom and a bounce. So this is exactly what I am expecting, but this time it is going to occur in a dramatic fashion. Not intended as advice, as always just my take on the action.
Rev Shark:
Batten Down the Hatches on Your Portfolio
8/29/2005 8:39 AM EDT
"The little reed, bending to the force of the wind, soon stood upright again when the storm had passed over."
-- Aesop
The focus of the market this morning is the weather, with Hurricane Katrina pounding the gulf coast in an area that produces and refines a good portion of our domestic fuel supply. The eye of the storm has not yet come ashore as I write and we don't have any good information about what the overall impact may be.
The media make the job of objective evaluation of the financial impact even more difficult because it is so focused on sensationalist stories. They trot out experts talking about models posulating lots of death and destruction but reality is always much different than the predictions.
Katrina is going to have at least some impact on a variety of market sectors. Obviously oil-related stocks will be moving but also insurance stocks such as AIG, ALL, RNR, CB, PGR, SAFC, XL, etc., will be affected. The Louisiana area also has a large gaming industry and stocks like ISLE, PENN, HET and BYD will be affected. Retailers like HD and LOW and regionally concentrated restaurants and retailers are also likely to see a reaction.
One of the big problems for the market is that this hurricane is hitting just as we are already wrestling with some major issues, and the technical picture has been eroding steadily for some time and is precarious at best. To add insult to injury we have Alan Greenspan commenting in his farewell speeches about how the housing boom is slowing and also pointing out how other "excesses" are likely to begin correcting in a rather economically painful way. It definitely is not the sort of talk the market wants to hear right now.
We have some major problems to contend with in front of the Labor Day holiday. In some endeavors the best course of action is to stand tough and fight back, but the stock market is not one of those endeavors. Your primary goal is to protect your capital and make sure you are in good shape to move forward when things improve. Bravery is not a quality that benefits market participants; it is time to seek safety and bend to the wind.
OPEC announced that is going to increase output by 500,000 barrels per day and that seems to be helping the market a little as I write but trusting OPEC has never been a good idea.
Overseas markets were negative overnight, crude oil was flirting with the $70 mark for a while, the dollar is weak and gold up.
Gary B. Smith:
Dennis Leontyevi jutt tekitab tunne, et meie silmade all õpib turg ära uue triki - osta halbade uudiste peale, sest kohe nende järel tuleb põrge. Mis peaks tähendama, et see trikk lõpetab töötamise - kõik ostavad kohe uudiste peale, hind hüppab, mingit edasist põrget ei tule, vaid tuleb hoopis langus päeva lõpuks.
eile oli LHV chatis päris huvitav, ootame ka täna rahvast sinna.