Rev Shark:
You Needn't Nail the Bottom to Be a Good Investor
4/29/05 8:33 AM ET
"There is no way to catch a snake that is as safe as not catching him."
-- Jacob M. Braude
The action yesterday provided a particularly good illustration of why I keep writing that it is not a good idea to keep trying to anticipate a turning point in the market. If you went "all in" a week ago like some did after a big upside day (which came on unconvincing volume), you are now sitting on substantial losses as we revisit the lows.
The temptation to declare that the worst is over and that a major turn is upon us grows stronger with every day the downtrend continues. Investor want to be active. They want to impose their hopes and dreams on this market and make it reverse by the force of their will alone.
There is only one thing you need to keep in mind right now. In fact, tape it to your monitor or tattoo it on the back of your hand so you don't forget it: You don't need to catch the bottom to be a great investor.
Great investors are defensive when the market is poor like this one. They focus on protecting capital when we are in a downtrend, and don't worry about the glory of making the big market call like so many commentators and gurus. When the time is right and the tide has turned, they go to work and press their bets.
I'm going to continue to repeat my warning about serial bottom calling until we have a clear change in trend. So many folks in the media are going to try to induce you into anticipating a turn. They are going to use fundamentals, sentiment and economic arguments to try to convince you why you should jump in now. Don't fall for it. The stock market itself will let us know when things are looking better. The most compelling argument in the world is the simple supply and demand in the market.
If you aren't 100% invested at the exact bottom, so what? You are likely far ahead of those who have been obsessed with catching the turning point for the last couple of months.
We have a strong open shaping up this morning. Believe it or not there were some "bin Laden captured" rumors circulating. We haven't heard that in a while since it never seems credible, but that may have helped the tone this morning.
We have a number of economic reports coming up that should roil things a bit. Overseas markets are acting well Oil is down a bit.
Gapping Up
Gapping up on strong earnings/guidance: MSFT +1.6%, NTGR +19% (also WR Hambrecht upgrade), PLAY +9.7% (also Kaufman Bros upgrade), DTAS +17% (also ThinkEquity upgrade), ZRAN +11.5%, VSEA +10%, EMN +9.4% (also upgrades from BofA and Fulcrum), CCU +9.4%, PHS +6.9% (also CIBC upgrade).... Other News: SUNW +18% (BWeek says McNealy may take the co private), SKS +8.6% (nears deal to sell Proffitt's and McRae's - WSJ), IDNX +5.9% (analyst mentions stock on CNBC), BOOM +5.4%, MATK +3.9% (European ARA patent upheld), JNPR +2.2% (started with an Outperform at Morgan Keegan), WYNN +2.1% (CEO appears on CNBC), DPII +20%, CRUS +7.7% (Fujitsu to pay $25M for suit settlement), SEBL +5.2% (ORCL may buy co - TheDeal.com), ABN +5.2%, ALA +3% (bounces after 10% drop yesterday), SIRI +2.6% (Legg Mason upgrade)... Under $3: DVID +16.4% (announces deal with former CEO), GNVC +16%, CPN +14.5% (guides for Q1).
Gapping Down
Gapping down on disappointing earnings/guidance: PRVD -35% (also Deutsche downgrade), INCX -23%, APLX -20%, MSTR -16% (also Deutsche downgrade), COLM -16% (also BofA downgrade), FMD -16%, LF -5.1%, KLAC -3.4%, GTRC -3.2%, LEXR -2.6%... Other News: AMLN -3.7% (co and Lilly announce FDA approval of Byetta injection), NTAP -2.9%, MLNM -2.8% (FBR downgrade).
Gapping up on strong earnings/guidance: MSFT +1.6%, NTGR +19% (also WR Hambrecht upgrade), PLAY +9.7% (also Kaufman Bros upgrade), DTAS +17% (also ThinkEquity upgrade), ZRAN +11.5%, VSEA +10%, EMN +9.4% (also upgrades from BofA and Fulcrum), CCU +9.4%, PHS +6.9% (also CIBC upgrade).... Other News: SUNW +18% (BWeek says McNealy may take the co private), SKS +8.6% (nears deal to sell Proffitt's and McRae's - WSJ), IDNX +5.9% (analyst mentions stock on CNBC), BOOM +5.4%, MATK +3.9% (European ARA patent upheld), JNPR +2.2% (started with an Outperform at Morgan Keegan), WYNN +2.1% (CEO appears on CNBC), DPII +20%, CRUS +7.7% (Fujitsu to pay $25M for suit settlement), SEBL +5.2% (ORCL may buy co - TheDeal.com), ABN +5.2%, ALA +3% (bounces after 10% drop yesterday), SIRI +2.6% (Legg Mason upgrade)... Under $3: DVID +16.4% (announces deal with former CEO), GNVC +16%, CPN +14.5% (guides for Q1).
Gapping Down
Gapping down on disappointing earnings/guidance: PRVD -35% (also Deutsche downgrade), INCX -23%, APLX -20%, MSTR -16% (also Deutsche downgrade), COLM -16% (also BofA downgrade), FMD -16%, LF -5.1%, KLAC -3.4%, GTRC -3.2%, LEXR -2.6%... Other News: AMLN -3.7% (co and Lilly announce FDA approval of Byetta injection), NTAP -2.9%, MLNM -2.8% (FBR downgrade).
LEHman saying AMLN label better than expected....says stock selling off will be reversed and thinks stock trades up to 20 today
Yahoo annab S&P 500 väärtuseks 11.49, langus pea 99% :-)
Nice call.
sB
sB
Nüüd sai korda. Vist said infi siit kätte :-)
Pooljuhtide indeks SOX tegi kuue kuu põhja, vaatame, kas Nasdaq 1900 suudab toetust pakkuda.
Koos tehnoloogiasektoriga tublisti kukkunud SUNW on kuulujuttude keskmes - eile õhtul kostus päris palju jutte ülevõtmisest, täna räägitakse, et CEO Scott McNealy tahab ise ettevõtte börsilt ära viia (MBO).
Selliseid diile võib üha rohkem tulla, intressid endiselt suhteliselt madalad ja turg tublisti kukkunud.
SUNW +11%.
Selliseid diile võib üha rohkem tulla, intressid endiselt suhteliselt madalad ja turg tublisti kukkunud.
SUNW +11%.
kristjan, ma ei suuda businessweekist ega ka mujalt ühtegi allikat leida. Kas aitaksid, kust see info pärineb? Tasuta allikas soovitavalt.
Muide, MSFT takes over SUNW. Sulas :P
Muide, MSFT takes over SUNW. Sulas :P
LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Scott McNealy, the chief executive of Sun Microsystems Inc. and Silver Lake Partners are considering taking Sun private, Business Week said in its Inside Wall Street column, citing a hedge fund manager close to McNealy and the fund. The manager sees an LBO offer of $5 to $5.50 a share, the report said. Spokespersons for both Sun and Silver Lake declined comment, the report added. Shares closed Thursday at $3.44.
Nasdaq murdis 1900, pilt kole. Kui kosuda ei suudeta, võib päeva lõpuks pilt päris kole olla - enne nädalavahetust sellisel turul müüakse üsna valimatult.
QQQQ-l siis MA (50), hetkel 36,46, murdis allapoole MA(200), hetkel 36,49.
Paha-paha märk...
Paha-paha märk...
shitty call seni ,AMLN.
In a CNET News.com story, Sun Micro (SUNW) CEO Scott McNealy calls a BusinessWeek report that suggests an investment firm is planning a leveraged buyout of the server and software company, "unsubstantiated", and part of a scheme to profit from a stock price boost. "Why would a supposedly credible rag like BusinessWeek quote an anonymous hedge fund guy on a totally unsubstantiated rumor designed to spike the stock price?" McNealy wrote to CNET News.com. "I will bet this hedge guy is laughing his butt off that BusinessWeek printed this as he profits from the $0.42 rise in the price this morning."
Kui täna tugevalt lõpetatakse, siis näiteks QQQQ on teinud ilusa "nõrgad käed välja" ja prognoosiks MA (50) testimist. Vahel põhi satubki 50 ja 200 päeva murdmise ajale, sest kõik on jule negatiivsed. Suunamuutus toimubki ootamatult.
Täpselt
Käive on ka täna päris korralik olnud.
Aga, kui miski näeb liiga hea välja, siis see ilmselt ka nii on :)
Päeva lõpu tõus on liiga järsk olnud ja tuletan ka meelde, et tegemist on reede õhtuga, osad turuosalised juba nädalavahetuses ja seetõttu võib liikumisele vähem kaalu omistada. Hoopis olulisem on, et mis esmaspäev kaasa toob, kas tugevust suudetakse hoida.
Aga, kui miski näeb liiga hea välja, siis see ilmselt ka nii on :)
Päeva lõpu tõus on liiga järsk olnud ja tuletan ka meelde, et tegemist on reede õhtuga, osad turuosalised juba nädalavahetuses ja seetõttu võib liikumisele vähem kaalu omistada. Hoopis olulisem on, et mis esmaspäev kaasa toob, kas tugevust suudetakse hoida.