Börsipäev 29 - 30. detsember

Investeerimine
1

M6ned teemad tänaseks päevaks:

- Euro murdis jällegi dollari vastu viimaste aastate k6rgeimale tasemele. Yhe dollari eest saab 0.7996 eurot, mis kodumaises valuutas on ca 12.49 krooni.

- Dollari n6rkus ei ole masendanud turgusid ning futuurid on ligemale pool protsenti plussis.

- JP Morgan t6stab täna hommikul McDonaldsi (MCD) reitingu Overweight peale varasema Underweight asemel. Nende arvates ei muuda hullu lehma t6bi tarbijate eelistusi ning myyk peaks jääma samaks (myygi pysimist endistel tasemetel kinnitas MCD pyhade ajal ka ise). Samas aga loomaliha hind turul peaks kukkuma ning see peaks MCD ning ka teiste restorianikettide (QSR) jaoks positiivselt m6juma.

- AG Edwards teatas, et alustab pisikese protsessoritootja Transmeta (TMTA) katmist Buy/Speculative reitingu ning $5 hinnasihiga järgmise 12-18 kuu jooksul. Nende arvates on firma suuteline saavutama $200 mln suuruse käibe 2005 aastal.

- Trinity Biotech (TRIB) teatas, et nende Uni-Gold kiire HIV-test sai USA ravimiameti käest myygiiloa. Kiired HIV-viiruse testid on populaarsust kogumas, kuna varasema tunde v6i päevi väldanud ootamise asemel saab tulemused juba 10 minutiga. TRIB on täna hommikul 60% plussis.

HIV viirus tundub järjest kiiremini maailmas levivat ning kiirtestid v6ivad olla varsti kasutusel k6ikjal alustades riigisektorist ning l6petades kindlustusseltsidega. Turul ongi hetkel kolm mängijat: Orasure (OSUR), Trinity (TRIB) ning suurem Abbott Labs (ABT). Minu tähelepanu on viimasel ajal köitnud just $300 mln turuväärtusega OSUR, mis v6ib lähitulevikus saada ka LHV Pro all valituks.

- Six Flags (PKS) ei ole viimaste poolikute kauplemispäevade jooksul eriti liikunud ning ma usun, et enne järgmist ylesliikumist tuleb läbi teha pisike korrektsioon $7.5 ja $7 vahele.

- Smith Barney on täna hommikul välja positiivse kommentaariga pooljuhtide sektori teemal. Nende arvates peaks sektor tervikuna kasvama järgmisel aastal 20%. Varem ennustasid analyytikud 14% kasvu. Saab näha, kas see ka mingisugust m6ju aktsiatele omab.

- New York Times kirjutab täna hommikul sellest, kuid internetis tegutsevad pangad saavad tänu madalamale kulubaasile pakkuda deposiitidele paremaid intresse kui nende "bricks'n'mortar" konkurendid. Hea uudis eelk6ige NetBanki (NTBK) jaoks, kuid omab positiivset tooni ka E-Loani (EELN) suunal. Kogu v6rku viidud finantsteenuste mØte ongi ju kulubaasi alandamine. Kasutusmugavusest rääkimata.

- RevShark:

Good morning. The finish line to a very impressive year is in sight. Many folks have already locked profits for the first time since 1999 and closed up shop content in the knowledge that they were able to generate a positive return once again.

We still have three more days of slogging left in 2003 and the likelihood is that the final days should be rather tame and insignificant. Many investors will be happy to coast to the conclusion of the year and then work on the implementation of a new strategy when they are back at full power Jan. 5, 2004.

The question for us to consider this week is whether we will see a rotation back into small-caps, technology and momentum stocks that showed some signs of life last week. The most striking theme in this market over the last few weeks has been the outperformance of industrial, steel, oil and cyclical stocks. The Nasdaq has lagged as the stodgy smokestacks have hit new recent highs.

However, last week technology and small-cap stocks started to find some support. Unlike the DJIA and S&P 500, the Nasdaq has not been able to make new highs after briefly breaking through the overhead at 2000 on Dec. 3. The DJIA on the other hand has gone parabolic after breaking through the 10,000 level Dec. 11.

Some folks will say the DJIA is simply catching up with the Nasdaq, which outperformed for most of the summer and fall. But the chart of the DJIA is clearly extended recently, while the Nasdaq is set up nicely for an attack on new highs.

One way or another we are very likely to see a narrowing in the gap between the Nasdaq and the DJIA that developed in December. Based on the charts, the most likely way that will happen is for the Nasdaq to pick up some momentum while the DJIA drifts and digests recent gains.

Traders will likely be focusing on small-cap action this week because of the historic tendency of small stocks to outperform at this time of the year. There are plenty of small-cap technology stocks that have pulled back sharply to support levels. The ones that catch some volume can make some nice moves. So stay alert for unusual action in individual stocks early in the day.

In the early going we have positive indications. Overseas markets are pretty much up across the board. Semiconductor stocks are leading the way overseas. The dollar continues its struggle and hit another record low against the euro this morning. Gold is trading up to as high as $415.00.

There are news reports in the English press that Saddam has disclosed information on hidden weapons and $40 billion in hidden funds. If this story develops it could have a very positive impact on the market.

It should be an interesting day but volume is going to be thin, which means that the opportunity for manipulation and quick spikes is very high. Be careful out there.


Futuurid: Naz0.52% SP0.31%

sB


PS: Vabandan osade täpitähtede puudumise pärast. Haigusest tingituna olen oma tavapärasest kontorikeskkonnast eemal.

2
Nasdaqil 10 punkti 2000 juurde jõudmiseni maad.
3
JP Morgani McDonaldsi (MCD) upgreid myydi päris kiirest alla. Märk suurest pakkumisest.

Warnaco (WRNC)-s jätkuvalt ostuhuvi.


sB
4
NGEN jätkab rõõmsalt oma võidukäiku. Kaua veel? Millal oleks mõtekas shortida?
5
Ma arvan et ta vallutab 10$ piiri ysna varsti,kukkumisele voiks moelda ehk jaanuari alguses..
6
vahepealne kauplemisidee NOK sadas vist tõusutrendist läbi või istub praegu kuskil seal päris ääre peal. kuidas hindadete aktsia lühiajalist potentsiaali?
7
NOK on kenasti aastase tõusutrendi peal (põrkas sealt). Eelmise nädala lõpus mõned kauplejad ostsid aktsiat ja juba võtavad kasumeid. Täna hommikul oli ka mõningast NOK1V buy interesti märgata...
8
Kas keegi oskab öelda, millal NGEN kvartali tulemused avaldab?
9
WRNC tegi imeliku languse läbi. Äkki keegi teab põhjust. Eelmine kord oli sarnane käitumine mingi algaja maakleri poolt tekitatud, kus müüdi väikseid koguseid ja hind aina kukkus. Aga nüüd, mis nüüd toimus?
10
6hukeste aktsiate v6lu ja valu.

sB
11
MCD ronib vaikselt üles tagasi

Betti ,mis peitub lühendi QSR taga ?

>Samas aga loomaliha hind turul peaks kukkuma ning see peaks MCD ning ka teiste >restorianikettide (QSR) jaoks positiivselt m6juma.
12
quick service restaurants :)

sB
13
M6ned teemad tänaseks päevaks:

- Täna hommikul ärgates ning televiisori avades avastasin oma yllatuseks, et CNN-i kanalil esines keegi kuulus finantsastroloog, kes ennustas dollarile järgmiseks aastakse veelgi langust. Suurt langust.

Minu mäletamist mööda olid ka 1929. aasta USA bösrikrahhi eelsetel aastatel rahva seas populaarsed finantsastroloogid. FWIF.

- Six Flags (PKS) ei ole kauplejatele uhtegi korrektsiooni siiani pakkunud. Järgmine vastupanu $8 peal.

- Wall Street Journali legendaarne "Heard on the Street" kolumn käsitleb täna hommikul positiivsetes toonides Bristol-Myersi (BMY) aktsiaid. Analyytikute arvates on BMY aktsiad piisavalt odavad kaubeldes 17x selle aasta kasumit aktsia kohta. S&P 500 kaupleb 20x suuruse kordaja juures. Thomas Kahn of Kahn Brothers & Co. ytleb:
"We like to buy drug stocks when they're out of favor" and believes the co is the cheapest of the pack.."

Lähemalt saab BMY teemal lugeda LHV Pro all.

- UBS Warburg on täna hommikul väljas positiivse nupuga Pfizeri (PFE) teemal. Analyytikute s6nul kauplevad firma aktsiad allpool turu keskmist valuatsiooni ning peaks suutma järgmise paari aasta jooksul näidata oodatust suuremat kulude kokkuhoidu (Pharmacia tehing). 12 kuu hinnasihiks $42.

Pfizer (PFE) on ka LHV Pro valik. Lähemalt on sellest rääkinud ka Rain L6hmus meie viimasel investeerimisseminaril.

- RevShark:

With yesterday's close above 2000, the Nasdaq is now up 50% for the year, which is a tremendous success by just about any definition. The bulls are basking in the warm glow of a very good year but unfortunately they will have to keep in mind the standard disclaimer: Past results are no guarantee of future success.

As the market hurdles higher it becomes increasingly difficult and dangerous to assume that the trend will continue. On the other hand, fighting the trend has been an exercise in pain and a producer of losses for over eight months now. The irony of the great success in 2003 for the bulls is that it makes it very difficult to do it again next year.

We had extremely broad strength yesterday with nearly 1,000 stocks hitting new highs. However, it came on light holiday trading and at a time of the year when Santa is expected to deliver a rally of some consequence. The smart bears simply stepped aside and let the marauding bulls have their way. The calendar and emotions are with the bulls right now, so why fight it?

We have two more trading days left in this year and the issue we need to contemplate is whether the bulls will continue to run or whether there will be an inclination to lock in some profits as we hit new highs. Quite a few bulls already have big tax bills for the year and will be happy to wait until the new year before taking any more profits. If they are going to do some selling, it's the losers that are most likely to be dumped. Tax implications are going to help hold up this market to some degree for at least two more days.

How long can yesterday's broad market move continue? All of the major indices, and many of the secondary ones as well, are at new 12-month highs. However, the Nasdaq, small-cap indices and semiconductors are not nearly as extended as the DJIA and the S&P 500.

Many industrial, steel, oil and cyclical stocks have had parabolic moves that make new buys quite difficult. On the other hand, there are plenty of technology, biotechnology and small-cap stocks that have been basing and churning for six to eight weeks and have strong technical support for a further move higher.

The primary reason I remain bullish on this market is because of the many favorable chart patterns that I can find. As the cliché goes, it's not a stock market but a market of stocks. Even though some of the indices look lofty, there are still plenty of individual trade candidates that hold great appeal. Only when it becomes more difficult to find good technical patterns in individual stock charts will I temper my bullish bias.

As I stated yesterday. I'm looking for the Nasdaq to eventually close the recent relative-strength gap with the DJIA Since Nov. 7, the DJIA is up 6.5% while the Nasdaq is up only 1.8%. That gap is going to narrow one way or the other. I believe the most likely way is for the Nasdaq to continue to rise while the pace of the DJIA's increase slows. We are at that time of the year where the market favors small-caps and that can easily help the Nasdaq outperform.

Let's not forget that we are in this artificial end-of-the-year environment where the market can be pushed around fairly easily. The sentiment is positive right now and it is extremely dangerous to anticipate an end to the frothy action.

We have some economic data on the calendar this morning that should help establish the tone of trading. Chicago PMI, consumer confidence and existing-home sales are all due out at 10 a.m. EST.

Overseas markets continue to more slowly higher. The dollar is still struggling. Gold and oil prices are moving higher. Futures are close to flat in the very early going.

Will the bulls keep it going or have they overindulged and likely to be hung-over? It is the season for celebrations -- and the bulls know how to party hardy -- so I wouldn't be too quick to count them out even if they start the morning slowly.



Futuurid: Naz0.34% SP unch

sB

PS: Vabandan m6nede täpitähtede puudumise pärast, kuna viibin tavapärasest kontorikeskkonnast väljas.
14
Chicago PMI 59.2 vs 62.0 consensus

Existing Homes Sales 6.06 mln vs 6.33 mln consensus
15
http://www.postimees.ee/301203/online_uudised/122873.php
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EELN on kõva ralli teinud täna :)