Turgudele on endiselt suureks rõhujaks nafta hind, mis kerkis täna üle 50 dollari taseme. Saudi Araabia otsus tõsta päevast toodangumahtu 9,5 miljonilt barrelilt 11 miljonile alandas hinda väga vähe. Futuurid indikeerivad siiski kerget avanemist plussis.
Metatalli ja kaevandussektorite aktsiad jätkasid Euroopas tõusu ning seda tänu Hiina poolsetele positiivsetele kommentaaridele 2004. aasta majanduskasvu osas. Kardetud jahenemist ei ole toimunud ning kohalik statistikaamet ootab 8 kuni 9 protsendist majanduskasvu (varasem ootus oli 7%).
Google (GOOG) aktsia on peale positiivseid sõnumeid investeerimispankade visionääridelt eelturul üle 2% plussis. Credit Suisse ootab 12 kuu perspektiivis aktsia hinnasihiks 145 dollarit.
Rev Shark:
Patience is probably one of the most underrated attributes of successful traders and investors. Many make the mistake of characterizing inaction as weakness. The reality is that staying calm, objective and patient requires far more strength and effort than taking action as the mood strikes.
Those of us who watch the market closely are tempted by a constant flow of possible trades but it is the true professional who can sit and wait to act until conditions are ripe and the right trade presents itself. Like water upon a rock, patience is the ultimate strength.
The present market environment is practically begging us to be patient. There is no market leadership other than oil stocks, the technical conditions are very poor, we are at the height of weak seasonality, and there is little positive fundamental news about either the economy or individual stocks. The biggest positive the bulls have going for them is that things look so gloomy that we may actually see an increase in pessimism, which has been a rare thing in this market for some time.
The chart of the S&P 500 presents a pretty clear picture of where this market is at. We hit a top in February and have been downtrending ever since. We had some sharp V-shaped bounces in April, June and September but we have failed to crack the downtrend line. The most recent attempt to break out was a classic failure right at the downtrend line. The inability to keep the momentum going brought in the sellers and profit-takers and we are not trending back down toward the bottom of the range. We have some support at the 50-day simple moving average but there isn't much else on the charts that would lead us to believe that we will quickly find support.
We do have the end of the month coming up and the 50-day moving average support so a bounce to wrap up the third quarter isn't out of the question. However, don't talk yourself into believing this is a healthy market. There are a lot of problems both technically and fundamentally. The key is to stay patient as these problems work themselves out.
We have a slightly positive open shaping up but oil is back over the $50 a barrel mark and news flow is lackluster. Overseas markets struggled, with oil and gold stocks showing relative strength. We have the consumer confidence number coming up at 10 a.m. EDT, which will likely cause a reaction but there's nothing much else on the agenda.
My thanks to Cody for filling in once again on short notice. I'm definitely a bit weary of dealing with hurricanes and trying not to let it affect my market perceptions. My parents' home was badly damaged by the last storm and will take months to repair. I am concerned about their well-being but I remind myself that just like the market, life works best if you stay patient and approach your problems methodically. Things have a way of working out for the best if you keep your wits about you and continue to plod along.
Gary B. Smith:
