Majadelaenude probleemid on muutumas aina laiapõhjalisemateks ning Wells Fargo on teatanud, et on arvestanud ca $1.4 miljardilise kahjumiga selleks, et järgneva kahe aasta jooksul oma mitte-põhitegevusega seotud $12 miljardi suurune majadelaenude portfell maha müüa (kahju ca $1 mld) ning oma reserve kasvatada (ca $400 miljonit).
Ettevõtte tänane $2.92-line konsensus 2008. aasta kasumi osas on nüüdseks üpriski suure tõenäosusega liialt optimistlik. Kahjum, millest täna teatati, näitab, et isegi reeglina konservatiivset liini hoidev Wells Fargo ei ole probleemide ees immuunne. Seda, kuivõrd hea kvaliteediga on ettevõtte poolt $71 miljardi väärtuses välja antud kodulaenud ja $69 miljardi eest esmased hüpoteegid, ei oska täna veel öelda. Arvestades seda, et kõrvale pandi kõigest $400 miljonit võimalikeks lisakaotusteks näitab, et ettevõte ise vähemasti nii-öelda sohu vajumist oma teistes portfellides ei näe.
11. detsembril toimub Föderaalreservi intressimäära otsus ning selles intervjuus on päris huvitavalt spekuleeritud selle üle, kuidas oleks võimalik finantssektorile kindlustunnet ja likviidsust pakkuda, ilma et majanduses tervikuna inflatsiooni tõsta. Ühe sellise võimalusena nähakse Föderaalreservi üleöö intressimäära samaks jätmist, kuid diskontomäära suur langetamist, mis võimaldaks pankadel oma probleemide jaoks odavalt raha laenatada.
Eile tegi kolmanda kvartali tulemused teatavaks Marvell (MRVL), millele reageeriti järelturul -9.3%-lise allamüümisega, tuues aktsia 52. nädala madalaima hinnatasemeni. Jefferies peab seda oma kommentaaris ülereageeringuks ning soovitab tehnoloogiaaktsiat nõrkuse pealt osta.
Q3 tulemuste osas löödi edukalt analüütikute ootusi, ühtlasi kergitati järgmise neljandiku prognoose. Müügisurve tingis aga fakt, et jooksev kvartal kujuneb tavapärasest nädala võrra pikemaks ja mõned pidasid ootusi seetõttu liiga nõrgaks.
Ettevõtte müügitulud kasvasid eelneva kvartaliga võrreldes 16% 758 miljoni dollarini, ületades analüüsimaja 710 mln prognoosi. Käibekasvu genereerisid peamiselt WLAN segmnet (+50% Q/Q), printerid (16%), salvestusseadmed (16%), telekommunikatsiooniseadmed (+10%). Järgmise kvartali käibeks oodatakse 780 mln USD (+3% Q/Q), mis parem Jefferies’i $748 mln prognoosist (Wall Street ootab aga 6% kasvu). Kolme kuu 48.3%-line kasumimarginaal vastas ootustele. Marvell on pühendunud kulude kärpimisele ja marginaalide parandamisele, mille tõestuseks soovitakse 4Q jooksul kaotada 400 töökohta ehk 7% tööjõust. 0.14 dollarini küündinud EPS osutus oodatust paremaks tänu suuremale käibele ja soodustustele maksude pealt (0.03 USD). Järgmiseks kvartaliks oodatakse aktsiakasumiks 0.10 USD, mis veidi madalam Jefferiesi nägemusest.
Analüüsimaja peab tulemuste osas negatiivseks asjaolu, et kasumimarginaali nähakse paranevat vaid 40 baaspunkti võrra, samas kui nende enda ootuseks on 49.4%. Lisaks osutusid 3Q äritegevuse kulud (280 mln USD) peljatust kõrgemaks juriidiliste küsimuste tõttu aktsiaoptsioonide osas. Neljanda kvartali kuludeks prognoositi $283 mln (lisanädalat arvestades 305 mln USD), mis oluliselt kõrgem Jefferies’I varasemast prognoosist (277 mln USD).
Kokkuvõttes öeldakse, et mobiiltelefonide segmendist tuleneva negatiivsuse all kannatav Marvel on hästi positsioneerunud taastamaks kasumilikkust ja käibekasvu 2008. aastal tänu mitmetele tootetsüklitele. Aktsia kaupleb hetkel 15x 2009. EPS ning hinnasihiks 21 USD.
Says employment continues to expand, provides important pillar for economy.
Fed's Kohn says "we're beginning to see" consumers getting cautious
Kohn says housing continues to decline at a very, very rapid rate, have not seen signs it is stabilizing
Fed's Kohn: Inflation risks have not gone away
Kohn: Effectively pursuing fed mandate will aid dollar value
Futuurid said hoogu, kui Kohl ütles, et Fed peab oma poliitikas olema “flexible and pragmatic”.
Durable Goods Orders -0.4% vs -0.1% consensus, prior revised to -1.4% from -1.7%
Durable Goods Orders ex-trans -0.7% vs +0.3% consensus, prior revised to 1.1% from +0.3%
Capital Economics:
Aasias jagus tegevust nii pullidele kui karudele, Euroopa oli valdavalt roheline ja USA avaneb plussis.
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Banks Can't Shoulder Home Equity Burden
By Jim Cramer
RealMoney.com Columnist
11/28/2007 7:17 AM EST
Get that term into your head. Home equity loans that were purchased from other originators are the scourge of the system. Any piece of paper backed by these second liens that were issued by pure mortgage originators is just a goner.
This is the paper that was generated by Fremont General (FMT) and NovaStar (NFI) and New Century Financial and American Home Mortgage and so many of the other bankrupt and walking-dead companies. It was mostly no-documentation loans paper and served as another way to tap money that was meant to be paid back when you flipped a home. It was predicated on the continued increase in value of your home.
And now it is being defaulted on massively. It simply doesn't pay to pay it, even if you lose your house eventually. The moment that house drops 10% in value -- and that has been happening all around the country but particularly in Florida -- you get only the most braindead people paying it back. (I said this in front of a Washington Mutual (WM) executive this September and he was livid, but look where that stock was vs. where it is now.)
Purchased HELOC, home equity loans bought, is the most dangerous kind of business, one that Wells Fargo (WFC), which prides itself on rigorous lending, should never have participated in. This is also the paper that E*Trade (ETFC) has in abundance. In fact purchased HELOC is what I think will make it so E*Trade has an awfully hard time surviving. It appears that CIT (CIT) has a lot of home equity loans on the balance sheet, too, if you want to look at another potential disaster. Of course Washington Mutual and Countrywide (CFC ) didn't need to purchase. They have it in spades. Citigroup (C ) has it because American Home originated a lot for them. Bank of America (BAC ) has tons of home equity loans too.
Soon we will begin to figure out that second lien mortgages originated between 2005 and 2007 by bankrupt and near-bankrupt originators that we all know about must be cordoned off and marked down to zero. That this hasn't happened yet, that we haven't even been able to isolate California and Florida loans because of the convoluted and incomprehensible way that the makers of CDOs tried to diversify the mortgages in particular bonds has made it extremely difficult to sort out, cordon and purge. The sooner it is done the sooner we will wake up to new daily charges.
Anyone who has purchased HELOC or too much California or Florida HELOC will not make it because the Fed will not cut in time and housing will not rebound in time to make it so it is economical for the borrowers to pay it back.
Any insurer who insured a bond with home equity loans backing it will also not make it.
There simply isn't enough capital in the system to absorb these losses.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: VRGY +18.8% (also announces share repurchase program), MLHR +10.5%, DLTR +4.7%, ADI +3.1%, BECN +2.3%... Other news: JRJC +5.9% (completes acquisition of Hong Kong securities brokerage firm; Brean Murray discusses panic selling as unwarranted), JDSU +5.6% (announces jury ruled in favor of co on all claims in securities class action suit), TKC +4.4% (ACN helps TKC's delivery of services to customers), ETFC +4.1% (still checking), AYI +3.7% (Cramer claims AYI is next takeover tgt for Phillips), PVTB +2.5% (GTCR announces $100 mln investment in PVTB), ARE +2.1% (replacing SQA in S&P MidCap 400), GRMN +1.9% (still checking), TASR +1.9% (announces dismissals of wrongful death product liability lawsuits and responds to U.N.Committee comments that TASR device provokes 'extreme pain'), HAL +1.8% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), EMC +1.7% (still checking), DB +1.7% (rises on speculation that Asian or Gulf-based investors may tgt European banks weakened in wake of subprime crisis), NOK +1.6% (still checking), AN +1.3% (Eddie Lampert discloses 30% stake, up from 28.5%), C +1.3% (receives call from investment banker suggesting merger with BAC), FLOW +1.1% (receives multi-million dollar aerospace contract with Mitsubishi Heavy Industries)... Analysts upgrades: UBS +3.3% (upgraded to Outperform at Credit Suisse, also speculation that Asian or Gulf-based investors may tgt European banks weakened in wake of subprime crisis), NED +3.0% (initiated to Outperform at CIBC), CRDN +2.8% (upgraded to Buy at Morgan Joseph), OSTK +2.0% (upgraded to Hold at Stifel), RCNI +1.7% (initiated with Outperform at Bear Sterns), XLNX +1.0% (hearing upgraded to Buy at tier-1 firm), DD +1.0% (upgraded to Buy at Soleil), BUD +0.9% (upgraded to Buy at UBS).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to weak earnings/guidance: SNIC -13.2%, CENT -11.4%, UTI -10.1%, PBY -9.0%, MRVL -8.4%, BWS -7.7%, SMTC -5.7%, BRLC -5.2% (issues Q2, Y08 outlook), DBRN -5.1%, CEDC -1.3% (also reaffirms guidance for FY07 and FY08), ROH -1.2%... Other news: BIDZ -22.1% (held conf call responding to Citron report), ILE -12.7% (modifies ongoing clinical program for acne scars), TKG -11.1% (WSJ reports TKG talks to sell some of its stake in Vodacom to VOD ended after VOD failed to agree to merger of its fixed-line assets with MTNGroup), GA -9.2% (in response to class action lawsuit filed against GA), WFC -4.5% (discloses special Q4 2007 provision of $1.4 bln), BHP -4.2% (confident pricing fears won't wreck RTP deal - Reuters), SBUX -2.2% (Cramer recommends selling on MadMoney), FRE -1.7% (declares dividend reduced 50% and offers $6 bln of preferred stock), CSH -1.4% (Chief Executive Officer adopts 10b5-1 trading plan)... Analyst downgrades: NYT -1.7% (downgraded to Sell at BofA), AKH -1.7% (downgraded to Hold at Deutsche Securities).
September Existing Home Sales data revised to 5.03 mln from 5.04 mln