Börsipäev 28. detsember

Investeerimine
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December 28, 2006

Apranga (Acc.) November results. The November pre-tax profit came in at LTL 2.22m, corresponding to a margin of 9.1%. Sales increased 54% y-o-y to LTL 28.7m over the same period (previously reported). The company is very likely to exceed its recently upgraded full year sales guidance of LTL 290m (11M/06: LTL 267m), and the forecasted pre-tax profit of LTL 20m (11M/06: LTL 20.4m). Following November results, our full year sales forecast has been raised by 4% to LTL 299m, and also our full year pre-tax profit forecast has been increased by 16% from LTL 19.3m to LTL 22.4m. The company now trades at a PER 2006E of 25.3x, slightly below its main peer Baltika (PER 2006E of 26.1x). When looking at 2007E figures, the forecasted EPS growth of 23% leads to a PER 2007E of 20.5x, i.e. there is still room for a slight upside. We remain with Accumulate.

Tallink’s (Neutral) charter contract. Estonian shipping company Tallink is reorganizing its fleet on Gulf of Finland. The company will receive one of its new higher-speed vessels Star in the spring. Hence, they will have to do something with their older vessels. Yesterday Tallink signed a charter contract of vessel Meloodia with a Spanish shipping company. The contract is for at least 10 months.

Tallink will get nothing. For a while ago, we wrote that Estonian government has allocated about EUR 4m to subsidize the shipping industry. Everyone thought it was for Tallink. However, now it turns out that the money will go to cargo transporters and Tallink will not get anything. It seems like Tallink’s threats to reflag their ships are not scary enough.

PTA expands to Russia. The Estonian garment retailer PTA opened its first two “PTA” branded stores in Kazan and Yaroslavl in Russia. After opening of these stores the total number of “PTA” stores amounts to 13 with total sales space of 3020 square meters. This is more than five times less compared to the other Estonian clothing retailer Baltika (Neutral), which has total sales space of around 19,000 square meters. The new stores in Russia will be operated by ZAO Linret, a subsidiary of PTA Group, which also operates 10 “Oblicie” stores in Russia.

Baltic pension systems on top. According to the latest annual European Pensions Barometer rankings from Aon Consulting, Estonia and Latvia rank among the EU's top four for pensions provision. Both Baltic states relegated the Netherlands and the UK to fifth and sixth place, respectively. The high position could be caused by late retirement and high mortality in Estonia and Latvia. The latter one we are trying to improve – i.e. position in the table could drop in the coming years. In addition, given that an average Estonian pensioner gets approx EUR 200 per month, the high rankings were quite surprising.

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Apple lugu jätkub täna ning aktsia eelturul taas miinuses, mis on kaasa toonud endaga ka futuurid.

FORM FormFactor estimates trimmed at BofA: Banc of America cuts their Q4 and 2007 ests to in-line with consensus, and cuts their tgt to $43 from $45, to reflect a delay in the penetration of the new NAND. Firm views this as only a timing issue for the one-touch-down NAND product, and they remain very optimistic about the ‘07 growth prospects for the co and think FORM is in the final stages of qualifying their new one-touch-down product with several NAND flash customers. Firm thinks that MU could release a $50 mln order in 1Q07 and drive a sharp increase in June revs. Firm expects growth at FORM to remain well ahead of the industry's growth rate.

BofA raises their tgt on Autoliv (ALV) to $64 from $61 and to reflect a higher Euro/Dollar assumption for ‘07 of €1.30 (from €1.27). The firm's Top picks in auto parts are TRW Automotive (TRW) and Johnson Controls (JCI)

Soliel initiates MIDD with a Buy and a $134 tgt saying as many as 40% of all restaurants will switch their current equipment to more energy efficient models, according to the national restaurant association. As an industry leader, the firm says the co stands to benefit handsomely.

Stanford analyst on CNBC says he thinks that GOOG could run much further, thinks Time Magazine cover won't hurt the stock and is not a negative indicator. Thinks that GOOG is undervalued based on fundamentals; says trading at 1x PEG is undervalued given sustainable growth and innovation

BBI Blockbuster: Remain optimistic about company's prospects: Soleil continues to expect FCF improvements, reflecting BBI's back-to-basics and cost containment strategies as well as mkt share gains. Firm believes that FCF can swing from ($209.9 mln) in 2005 to +$99.3 mln in 2006 and continue to improve in 2007. Firm reits their Buy on BBI and expects it to appreciate further based on the anticipated rise in cash flow, strengthening balance sheet, and the improving outlook for the industry and for BBI specifically.

Thomas Weisel notes that they just completed a round of about 20 channel checks with Apple (AAPL) specialist resellers and Apple retail stores across the US and their checks suggest strong "holiday season" demand for Intel-based Macs and iPods. There is no change to their estimates. They are already estimating 41.5% y/y growth for Mac units, and they remain comfortable with their current estimates. They say iPod demand checks suggested strong enthusiasm for the iPods overall, and they are modeling a 68% sequential increase in units (14.7 mln) for December. Based on their checks, they remain comfortable with their current iPod estimates, although they believe that some upside to their estimates is possible. They believe the growth opportunities continue to be strong for Apple, but that those opportunities appear to be well understood by the investment community and, thus, reflected in the current stock price.

NY Times reports Wall Street's fears of a steep decline in the $6 bln stent business seem to have evaporated after an inconclusive federal regulatory review of coronary stent safety this month. In their relief, analysts are now forecasting that the lucrative drug-coated versions of the stents will still account for 75% to 80% of the domestic stent mkt in the last quarter of this year. That would be down from about 88% a year ago. While the FDA's safety panel did suggest that heart doctors take various measures to reduce the risks associated with the stents, it did not call for the agency to impose new restrictions on their use. As a result, Wall Street is looking for the sales slide to end in 2007. Some of the rebound might come from the expected arrival in the mkt in the second half of next year of Medtronic's (MDT) drug-coated Endeavor stent. But the biggest winner from a rebound would probably be Boston Scientific (BSX). What if the current confidence in the drug-coated stent mkt is wrong? Boston Scientific would be hit by a 17.5% shortfall in projected earnings per share next year if drug-coated stents fell to 40% of the domestic mkt, according to Lawrence Biegelsen of the Prudential Equity Group. A similar decline would nick just 1.3% from the earnings per share of Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), the diversified health care giant that makes the only other drug-coated device currently sold in the U.S.

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Stocks to watch:

  • Alcoa (AA) said UAW Local 1050 has ratified a new 4-year labor agreement that covers about 830 employees at the company's Cleveland Works facility. The aluminum company said the UAW represented employees will return to work Jan. 2 after an 8-week strike.
  • FT reports that Apple (AAPL) CEO Steve Jobs was given 7.5M stock options in 2001 without the required authorization from the company’s board. The FT says that records that purported to show a full board meeting had taken place to approve Mr Jobs’ remuneration, as required by Apple’s procedures, were later falsified.
  • BioForm Medical said the Food and Drug Administration has approved Radiesse, a cosmetic dermal filler for the long-lasting correction of moderate to severe facial wrinkles and folds. Shares of BioForm's competitor, Medicis Pharmaceutical (MRX), which makes wrinkle-treatment Restylane, closed down 0.67%.
  • Champion Industries (CHMP) reported fiscal fourth-quarter net earnings of $1.97 million, or 20 cents a share, up from $569,000, or 6 cents a share, in the year-ago period. Revenue in the three months ended Oct. 31 rose 6.6% to $37 million from $34.7 million.
  • Directed Electronics (DEIX) said Ronald Dutt, executive vice president for finance, operations and legal, will be appointed chief financial officer and treasurer, effective Jan. 2. The Vista, Calif.-based designer and marketer of home theater loudspeakers, said Dutt will succeed John Morberg, who is leaving the company.
  • ON Semiconductor (ONNN) said it has agreed to repurchase $70 million of its shares from TPG Semiconductor Holdings LLC and TPG ON Holdings LLC, which together are the company's largest stockholder.
  • Nabors (NBR) said it is initiating a further review of its option-granting practices in light of "issues raised" in a Wall Street Journal article.
  • Sento (SNTO) said it swung to a second-quarter net loss attributable to stockholders of $2.58 million, or 65 cents, due to higher costs of sales after the termination of a client program. In the same period last year, the Salt Lake City-based provider of call center services posted net earnings of $310,000, or 8 cents a share.
  • Standard & Poor's said First Cash Financial Services (FCFS) will replace Republic Bancorp (RBNC) in the SmallCap 600 index after the close of trading on Friday. Citizens Banking (CBCF) is acquiring Republic in a deal expected to close on or about that date.
  • Tapestry Pharmaceuticals (TPPH) named Donald Picker as president, effective Jan. 2. Picker was most recently executive vice president of research and development at Callisto Pharmaceuticals.
  • Threshold (THLD) said it is pleased with the results from the Phase 2 clinical trial of glufosfamide in combination with gemcitabine for the treatment of advanced pancreatic cancer. The cancer treatments developer said 21% of patients in the clinical trial had a partial response.
  • VCA Antech (WOOF) said it sees 2007 revenue of $1.05 billion to $1.08 billion. The operator of veterinary hospitals said it sees annual income of $109 million to $113 million, and per-share income of $1.27 to $1.31.
  • Virgin America was dealt a setback after U.S. regulators ruled that the start-up airline must change its ownership and corporate structure.


Market Summary

  • Asian trading closed with the Hang Seng +1.40%, Nikkei +0.01%, Sensex -0.10%, Shanghai +1.11% and Taiwan flat.

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Shark hoiatab, et aastalõpuralli võib luua koleda alguse uuele aastale. Omalt poolt olen ka paar korda kõrvutanud 2004. ja 2006. aastalõpu rallide graafikuid(mis on hämmastavalt sarnased) ning pole välistatud, et aasta alguses juhtub see, mis 2005. jaanuaris.

Santa Might Beget the Grinch in '07

By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
12/28/2006 8:36 AM EST
Click here for more stories by Rev Shark

"If you want a happy ending, that depends, of course, on where you stop your story."

-- Orson Welles

The 2006 stock market story is coming to an end at just the right time to produce a very happy ending. Unless something very dramatic happens in the next 48 hours, the DJIA and the S&P 500 are going to end up closing near their highs of the year. The Nasdaq and small-caps are lagging just a tad but still are going to finish with an impressive gain and not too far from their highs.

Should we care how the story ends? The media will certainly make sure we hear about how fantastic the year was for the markets. They will excite many investors into thinking things will continue unabated and will cause many others to feel extremely frustrated because they didn't do as well as the indices indicated.

It is probably a negative for early 2007 that we are closing 2006 so well. Emotions will be high when we kick off the new year and many will be looking for the uptrend to continue. Unfortunately, conditions change with a new year. There is an initial inflow of capital from retirement plans and such but the motivation to hold stocks up to preserve a track record abates and those waiting to defer tax liabilities no longer need to do so.

I believe a strong finish to 2006 coupled with a deluge of positive media reports about the market will set us up for a very nasty dip in January. That is still a little ways off but it is a seed that is firmly planted in the back of my mind and I will be particularly sensitive to any indications supporting that thinking. As I've discussed often, making bold predictions about the distant future is a waste of time but having a workable thesis for the near term helps ensure that you are not caught by surprise when conditions turn.

For now our focus is the end of the year. We had a very nice Santa Claus rally yesterday but it doesn't look to be carrying over to this morning. The nature of these end-of-years moves is to be choppy and inconsistent because volume is light and the trading is forced to a degree. The chances of a quick change in character are higher than usual and we need to keep that in mind.

We have a soft open on the way. European markets were mostly lower while Asia was mostly higher. Gold continues to rally and oil has a little bit of a bounce. Steve Jobs' option woes at Apple are dominating the news this morning but we also have some economic data coming up later that may be of import.
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Kiire pilk Nasdaq tehnilisele pildile. Näeme, et eile välja toodud väike tõusupotentsiaal sai turuosaliste poolt realiseeritud. Tõin välja CCI nimelise indikaatori, mis asus ekstreemses piirkonnas alla -100 taset. Kui eile mainisin, et sõltuvalt setupist viibivad hinnad ca 80% juhtudel hinnad CCI indikaatori -100 ja 100 vahel, siis tõusutrendide ajal juhtub harva kui indikaator allapoole -100 satub, see tähendab kas trendi muutust või erakorset ülemüüdust. Pildilt näeme, et eilne gap up on väikese käibega ning karud peaksid sellest hästi jagu saama. Nasdaq on liikunud vaikselt külgsuunas paarikuises toetuste ja vastupanutasemete vahel. MACD näitab, et kahe libiseva keskmise omavaheline vahe on jätkuvalt vähenemas, mis peegeldab indeksi nõrkust. Eilne üles liikumine ei suutnud murda bollingeri eraldavat 20 päeva libisevat keskmist ning tänane eelturu futuuride negatiivsus ilmselt tähendab seda, et väga suurt ülesliikumist täna ei kaasne. Toornafta on kergelt kosunud ning kaupleb 60,60 juures.

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Märkimist väärib ka see, et eile üritasid kuubikud pärast paar päeva tagasi läbi 50-MA vajutud joont ülespoole tagasi tõusta, kuid päeva lõpus sulguti taas allpool.

Ülespoole avanevad:

SCLN +16.2% (submits regulatory application for "DC Bead" in China, patient enrollment is complete for Zadaxin), THLD +14.7% (announces top-line Phase 2 trial results of Glufosfamide for pancreatic cancer), ABMD +7.1% (CEO appears on CNBC), FCFS +5.8% (to join S&P SmallCap 600 tomorrow), EFUT +3.8% (continues yesterday's momentum), ESCL +3.3% (momentum), GERN +3.0%, CHINA +2.6% (Opco initiates with a Buy & $12 tgt), CHU +2.5% (China stock momentum, reports that China studying when to issue 3G licenses).

Allapoole avanevad:

CN -3.5% (denies it's in acquisition talks - Bloomberg), AAPL -2.0% (CEO stock options not authorized by Board - FT), ELN -1.6%, GILT -1.5%, BTI -0.9%.
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Existing Home Sales 6.28 mln vs 6.15 mln consensus
Chicago Purchasing Manger 52.4 vs 50.2 consensus
Consumer Confidence 109 vs 102 consensus

Majade müük oodatust parem ning tarbijausaldus konsensusest samuti suurem.
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Distillaatide varud suurenesid +0.5 mln vs +0.5 mln konsensus
Kütuse varud suurenesid +3.0 mln vs +0.75 mln konsensus
Toornafta varud vähenesid -8.1 mln vs -2.5 mln barrelit konsensus
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Tuleb märkida, et Investor intelligence Bull/Bear Poll näitab karude osakaalu vaid 19.6%, mis on madalaim protsent üle väga väga pika aja. Pullide osakaal sealjuures 56.5%. Paistab, et enamus ootab ilusate aegade jätkumist, kuid GOOG ja AAPL viimase aja liikumised võivad tähendada ohu märke turu jaoks ning languse korral on üllatujate osakaal päris suur (kuigi pullide osakaal eelmisel korral oli veidi kõrgem). Pikkade positsioonide kaitsmine praegu tundub hea mõte (näiteks QID abil, mida tutvustasime ka Pro all).