Merrill Lynch alandab täna Citigroupi (C), Lehman Brothersi (LEH) ja Bear Stearnsi (BSC) reitingud "neutraalse" peale varasema "osta" pealt. Bloomberg kommenteerib natukene ka põhjendusi, mis on seotud laenude- ja mortgage äriga. Meenutagem, et Merrilli analüütik oli see, kes Countrywidele häda kaela tõi : ) Seekord siiski tegu teise mehega, kuid põhjendused on mõistlikud. Toon ära ka võrdluseks Goldman Sachsi käibemudeli, kust on näha, millest üleüldse taoliste firmade käive koosneb.
By Sebastian Boyd
Aug. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., BearStearns Cos. and Citigroup Inc. were downgraded to ``neutral''from ``buy'' by Merrill Lynch & Co. analyst Guy Moszkowski,citing a likely slowdown in revenue from investment banking.
New York-based Lehman and Bear Stearns, the fourth- and fifth-biggest U.S. securities firms, will probably lose out because of their dependence on debt markets, and Citigroup may bepinched by loans and leveraged finance commitments, Moszkowski wrote in a note to investors today. He cut his profit estimates for all three companies and JPMorgan Chase & Co.
Record foreclosures on U.S. subprime mortgages have rippled through debt markets, cutting revenue from underwriting bonds and debt-financed buyouts. Lehman fell 31 percent and Bear Stearnswas down 27 percent this year in New York trading throughyesterday as investors lost confidence in the asset-backedsecurities that fueled three years of record Wall Street profit.
Next year's ``forecasts appear increasingly unrealistic formost,'' wrote New York-based Moszkowski, the top-rated U.S.brokerage analyst in Institutional Investor magazine's survey ofmoney managers. ``Slower debt, mergers and acquisitions andequity-underwriting businesses seem inevitable.''
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley, the two biggestU.S. securities firms by market value, are the best placed of theAmerican brokers to weather the credit crunch, Moszkowski said inhis report, written with Patrick Davitt and entitled``Differentiation Escalates.''
`Not Great Environment'
``Given their highly diverse business mixes and theirsignificant geographical diversity of earnings, Goldman andMorgan Stanley are best positioned for the current environment,with the perhaps obvious caveat that it's not a great environment for anyone in this business,'' Moszkowski wrote.
Bear Stearns and Lehman are the worst performers this year behind E*Trade Financial Corp. on the 12-member AmexBroker/Dealer Index, which dropped 7.6 percent. Goldman's sharesare down 11 percent and Morgan Stanley's are down 5.7 percent.
Merrill cut its estimate of Lehman's earnings by 22 percentto $6.80 a share next year. The firm will probably earn $7.07this year. Profit at Bear Stearns may rise 1.8 percent to $12.07a share next year after a 17 percent drop this year to $11.86.
Bear Stearns is unlikely to sell itself, Moszkowski wrote.The company is seeking protection from lawsuits for two bankrupthedge funds it managed. Bear Stearns closed the funds, whichinvested in securities backed by home loans, after granting $1.6billion in emergency funding. On Aug. 5, Bear Stearns ousted co-President Warren Spector,who ran fixed income and asset management at the firm. The sharesreached a two-year low the next day. `
Chilling Effect'
``The embarrassments of the past several months and thechange in senior management are likely to have some chillingeffect on business beyond just the beleaguered asset managementarea,'' Moszkowski wrote today.
Profit at Citigroup and JPMorgan, the fastest-falling stocksin the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index over the last threemonths, may fall below previous expectations because the two NewYork-based banks will probably take losses from loans they madeto finance buyouts, Moszkowski wrote. The loans that Citigroupand JPMorgan made and haven't been able to parcel out will crimpearnings most in the third quarter.
JPMorgan is the biggest arranger of risky leveraged loans inthe U.S., according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Citigroup isthe third-largest after Bank of America Corp. Citigroup is thebiggest U.S. financial-services company by market value, followedby Bank of America and JPMorgan.
Merrill cut its estimate of Citigroup's earnings next yearby 4.7 percent to $4.91 a share and reduced its estimate forJPMorgan's earnings by 3.9 percent to $4.72 a share.
juures sadas just rahet. Nii et aeg rannarätikud börsi jälgivate monitoride ja LHV Traderi graafikutega asendada. Hetkel veel küll käimas viimane suurem puhkusenädal Wall Streetil ning kui mitte varem, siis pärast Labour Day'd 3. septembril võib oodata ka USA börsidel kauplemise aktiviseerumist.
