Nädal USA turgudel oli kujunemas võrdlemisi heaks kuniks reede pullide peo ära rikkus. Paljude tehnoloogiasektori ettevõtete kõrged valuatsioonid on endiselt pinnuks silmas ning lisaks pinged Ukrainas andsid põhjust enne nädalavahetust positsioone vähendada. See, kui raskeks on ostjate jaoks muutunud uute tippude vallutamine ning kui lihtsasti likvideeritakse võidud ühe-kahe päevaste kukkumistega, annab alust arvata, karusid tuleks võtta nüüd oluliselt tõsisemalt ning hirmuäratav on seejuures teadmine, et indeksid kauplevad tippude juures. S&P 500 ja Stoxx 600 sulgusid reedel -0,8% madalamal.
Möödunud nädala muutused:
Käesolev nädal on 1. mai püha tõttu Euroopas lühendatud, kuid sellest hoolimata ootab ees väga palju olulist makrot.
Esmaspäev 28. aprill
• USA majade pooleliolevad müügitehingud märtsis: 0,7% põrge pärast -0,8% langust veebruaris (YoY -10,2%)
• USA Dallas FEDi töötleva tööstuse aprilli küsitlus: tõus 1,1 punkti 6,0 punktile
• Majandustulemused teatavad: National Oilwell Varco, Herbalife, STMicroelectronics.
Teisipäev 29. aprill
• Saksamaa maikuu tarbijate kindlustunde indeks: stabiilne 8,5 punkti peal
• Prantsusmaa tarbijate kindlustunde indeks: püsib 88 punktil
• Suurbritannia esimese kvartali SKP: 0,9% QoQ kasv pärast 0,7% tõusu neljandas kvartalis
• USA tarbijate aprillikuu kindlustunde indeks: 0,9punktine tõus 83,2 punktini
• Majandustulemused teatavad: 3D Systems, BP, Cummins, Goodyear Tire, LyondellBasell, Merck, Nokia, Sprint, Ebay, U.S. Steel.
Kolmapäev 30. aprill
• Jaapani märtsi tööstustoodang: YoY kasvutempo kiirenemine 7,0% pealt 7,2% peale
• Jaapani keskpanga istung
• Eurotsooni aprillikuu esmane inflatsiooni näit: tuuminflatsiooni tõus 0,7% pealt 1,0% peale
• USA keskpanga rahapoliitika komitee istung ilma pressikonverentsita: QE jätkuv vähendamine
• USA esimese kvartali SKP: ilma tõttu kõigest 1,2% QoQ annualiseeritud kasv
• USA ADP tööturu küsitlus: erasektoris loodi 206K töökohta vs 191K märtsis
• USA Chicago töötleva tööstuse küsitlus: tõus 55,9 pealt 56,0 punktile
• Majandustulemused teatavad: Time Warner, Well Point, Western Digital.
Neljapäev 1. mai
• Hiina ametlik töötleva tööstuse aprilli PMI: 0,2punktine tõus 50,5 punkti peale
• Suurbritannia töötleva tööstuse aprilli PMI: üsna stabiilne 55,4 punkti juures
• USA töötu abiraha taotlused: langus üheksa tuhande võrra 320K peale
• USA FEDi Yellen esineb kõnega
• USA töötleva tööstuse aprilli ISM: 0,6punktine paranemine 54,3 punkti peale
• USA isiklike sissetulekute ja kulutuste märtsikuu muutus: vastavalt 0,4% ja 0,6% MoM
• USA aprillikuu automüük: 16,2m vs 16,33m märtsis
• Euroopa Komisjoni kevadised prognoosid
• Majandustulemused teatavad: Exxon Mobil, Kellogg, T-Mobile, LinkedIn.
Reede 2. Mai
• Eurotsooni töötleva tööstuse aprilli lõplik PMI: püsib muutuseta 53,3 punktil
• Eurotsooni märtsikuu töötuse määr: püsib 11,9% peal
• USA aprillikuu tööjõuraport: 215K töökohta, töötuse määr peaks alanema 0,1pp 6,6% peale
• Majandustulemused teatavad: Chevron, Estee Lauder.
USA indeksite futuurid kauplevad hetkel ilma olulise muutuseta. 
Aprilli müügimaksu eel kerkis jaemüük suuremates Jaapani poodides (üle 50 töötaja) märtsis 16,1% võrreldes mullusega (analüütikud ootasid 13,8%). Aprill tõotab ettepoole nihkunud nõudluse tõttu kujuneda selle võrra nõrgemaks.
Saksamaa ravimitootja, Bayer, esimese kvartali kasum kasvas 12% ning seda tänu uute ravimite kasvule (viie uue ravimi, Xarelto, Eylea, Stivarga, Xofigo ning Adempas, kombineeritud müük kasvas kvartalis 145% Y/Y). Ettevõtte EBITDA kasvas kvartalis 2,74 mld euroni aastataguse 2,45 mld pealt ning tulemus ületas analüütikute 2,56 mld euro suurust ootust. Puhaskasum ulatus 1,42 mld euroni. Ravimitootja käive kasvas kvartalis 2,8% ehk 10,6 mld euroni vs analüütikute 10,54 mld suurune ootus. Bayer kinnitas veebruaris antud majandusaasta prognoose, oodates korrigeeritud käibeks 41-42 mld eurot ning EBITDA kasvuks ilma erakorraliste tulude/kuludeta kuni 5%.
Kullerteenuste pakkuja, TNT Expressi, käive vähenes esimeses kvartalis 6,6% Y/Y ehk 1,6 mld euroni ning ärikasum langes €17 mln peale aastataguse €219 mln pealt (võrdlusperiood sisaldas ühekordset tulu UPSilt €200 mln ulatuses). TNT korrigeeritud ärikasum kasvas kvartalis €51 mln peale aastataguse 21 mln pealt. Ettevõtte tulemusi mõjutasid negatiivselt valuutakursid ning Hiina üksuse müük. Ettevõtte hinnangul on oodata valuutakursside negatiivse mõju jätkumist ka järgnevatel kvartalitel.
Mõned tänased ja reedesed analüütikute otsused:
Sandvik Cut to Hold vs Buy at SEB
Electrolux Raised to Hold vs Sell at Nordea; PT 130 to 175 (Close 171,0)
Technip Cut to Equalweight vs Overweight at Morgan Stanley (Close 82,25)
• Take profits in Technip as we lower to EW: We continue to expect Technip to outperform peers and to achieve 2014 & 2015 guidance. However, we see limited scope for further re-rating and believe earnings upgrades are also unlikely. With 2% upside to our unchanged €85 price target after the recent rally – part of which came after strong 1Q results, we move to EW & highlight Wood Group as key OW
Hannover Re Cut to Underperform vs Neutral at BofAML
Greek Banks Raised to Bullish vs Neutral at Nomura
Royal Vopak Cut to Neutral vs Overweight at JPMorgan; PT 48 to 36 (Close 35,43)
British Land Raised to Overweight vs Neutral at JPMorgan; PT 680 to 740 (Close 681,0)
Bank Pekao Raised to Neutral vs Underweight at JPMorgan; PT 185 to 217 (Close 191,2)
Paypoint Rated New Equalweight at Barclays; PT 1,075p (Close 1135,0)
Optimal Payments Rated New Overweight at Barclays; PT 525p (Close 361,0)
Deutsche Post Cut to Equalweight at Barclays; PT Raised to Eu28 (Close 26,55)
Drax Raised to Hold vs Sell at SocGen; PT 710 to 680 (Close 660,5)
Drax Group Raised to Buy vs Neutral at Citi
Criteo Rated New Neutral at Goldman, PT Eu36 (Close 28,94)
Diageo Cut to Neutral From Outperform at Credit Suisse
Xeros Rated New Buy at Jefferies, PT 164p (Close 95,38)
Gazprom Cut to Neutral at HSBC; PT 9,9 to 8,4 USD (Close 6,99)
Rosneft Cut to Underweight at HSBC; PT 7,5 to 6,7 USD (Close 6,233)
Saipem Cut to Neutral at HSBC; PT $20 to €21 (Close 19,5)
C.a.t. Oil Cut to Neutral at HSBC; PT €23,0 to €18,0 (Close 14,68)
Konecranes Cut to Neutral vs Buy at Goldman; PT 28,6 to 23,0 (Close 22,82)
Munich Re Cut to Neutral vs Buy at Goldman; PT 172 (Close 165,3)
Bureau Veritas Removed From UBS’s Least Preferred List
G4S Removed From UBS’s Most Preferred List
Adecco Removed From UBS’s Least Preferred List
Randstad Removed From UBS’s Most Preferred List
Sandvik Cut to Hold vs Buy at SEB
Electrolux Raised to Hold vs Sell at Nordea; PT 130 to 175 (Close 171,0)
Technip Cut to Equalweight vs Overweight at Morgan Stanley (Close 82,25)
• Take profits in Technip as we lower to EW: We continue to expect Technip to outperform peers and to achieve 2014 & 2015 guidance. However, we see limited scope for further re-rating and believe earnings upgrades are also unlikely. With 2% upside to our unchanged €85 price target after the recent rally – part of which came after strong 1Q results, we move to EW & highlight Wood Group as key OW
Hannover Re Cut to Underperform vs Neutral at BofAML
Greek Banks Raised to Bullish vs Neutral at Nomura
Royal Vopak Cut to Neutral vs Overweight at JPMorgan; PT 48 to 36 (Close 35,43)
British Land Raised to Overweight vs Neutral at JPMorgan; PT 680 to 740 (Close 681,0)
Bank Pekao Raised to Neutral vs Underweight at JPMorgan; PT 185 to 217 (Close 191,2)
Paypoint Rated New Equalweight at Barclays; PT 1,075p (Close 1135,0)
Optimal Payments Rated New Overweight at Barclays; PT 525p (Close 361,0)
Deutsche Post Cut to Equalweight at Barclays; PT Raised to Eu28 (Close 26,55)
Drax Raised to Hold vs Sell at SocGen; PT 710 to 680 (Close 660,5)
Drax Group Raised to Buy vs Neutral at Citi
Criteo Rated New Neutral at Goldman, PT Eu36 (Close 28,94)
Diageo Cut to Neutral From Outperform at Credit Suisse
Xeros Rated New Buy at Jefferies, PT 164p (Close 95,38)
Gazprom Cut to Neutral at HSBC; PT 9,9 to 8,4 USD (Close 6,99)
Rosneft Cut to Underweight at HSBC; PT 7,5 to 6,7 USD (Close 6,233)
Saipem Cut to Neutral at HSBC; PT $20 to €21 (Close 19,5)
C.a.t. Oil Cut to Neutral at HSBC; PT €23,0 to €18,0 (Close 14,68)
Konecranes Cut to Neutral vs Buy at Goldman; PT 28,6 to 23,0 (Close 22,82)
Munich Re Cut to Neutral vs Buy at Goldman; PT 172 (Close 165,3)
Bureau Veritas Removed From UBS’s Least Preferred List
G4S Removed From UBS’s Most Preferred List
Adecco Removed From UBS’s Least Preferred List
Randstad Removed From UBS’s Most Preferred List
Väga huvitavad kommentaarid Fordi tulemustejärgsel pressikonverentsil. Ettevõte alustas aastat Põhja-Ameerikas 7,3% ärikasumimarginaaliga ning ootab vaatamata rohketele lanseerimiskuludele selle jäämist tänavu 8-9% ülemise otsa lähedale. Hinnasõda ja surve marginaalidele on üks suurimaid riskifaktorid, mida analüüsimajad autotootjatele Põhja-Ameerikas edaspidi ootavavd, kuid tegellik turuseis võib järelikult osutuda oodatust isegi tugevamaks
Robert L. Shanks - EVP and CFO:The other thing I think that is different than where we were three months ago, we guided to the fact that we thought North America would have negative pricing for the year, and certainly we see that in the quarter. But as we look ahead, I think we're starting to see the possibility of that being maybe more flat, maybe potentially somewhat positive, because the overall environment has been a bit more positive, more disciplined across the industry in general than what we maybe thought would be the case three months ago. Mark, anything to add?
Mark Fields - COO: No, I just mentioned earlier, as we look at that 8% to 9%, we're looking at additional production opportunities on the current F-Series, which all things being equal, could actually pushes up in the upper range of that, but we have some more work to do.
Robert L. Shanks - EVP and CFO:The other thing I think that is different than where we were three months ago, we guided to the fact that we thought North America would have negative pricing for the year, and certainly we see that in the quarter. But as we look ahead, I think we're starting to see the possibility of that being maybe more flat, maybe potentially somewhat positive, because the overall environment has been a bit more positive, more disciplined across the industry in general than what we maybe thought would be the case three months ago. Mark, anything to add?
Mark Fields - COO: No, I just mentioned earlier, as we look at that 8% to 9%, we're looking at additional production opportunities on the current F-Series, which all things being equal, could actually pushes up in the upper range of that, but we have some more work to do.
Itaalia tarbijate kindlustunne tegi aprillis võimsa hüppe ülespoole 101,9 punktilt 105,4 punktile (oodati 101,2), kui üheks jätkuvaks mõju avaldavaks põhjuseks võib olla uus peaminister, kes veebruaris ametisse astudes lubas reforme ja tulumaksu langetamist madalama sissetulekuga inimestele.
Rootsi märtsi jaemüük kasvas tublisti üle ootuste (MoM 1,1% vs oodatud 0,2%). Hooajaliselt korrigeerimata aastapõhine kasvutempo kiirenes 2,5% pealt 5,1%le (oodati 2,7%) aga kuna mullu langes ülestõusmispüha märtsisse ja tänavu aprilli, siis seal võib peituda moonutav mõju.
IMF on Aasia tänavuse väljavaate osas muutunud pisut optimistlikumaks, kergitades näiteks Hiina 2014.a SKP prognoosi 0,3pp võrra 7,5%ni. Piirkonna riikidel on siiski ka omajagu probleeme ja potentsiaalseid riske, millega võidelda:
Still, the fund noted some areas of potential stress, including large borrowings by companies in China, Indonesia and India. Household credit, despite large jumps in nations like Thailand and Malaysia, remains at manageable levels, the fund said. The IMF said a greater-than-expected slowdown in China, due to financial-sector vulnerabilities, may cloud the picture. Capital inflows also could be less strong than in previous years, as foreign funds look more to the U.S., where stronger growth is sending yields higher. However, the fund added that capital outflows likely will have a bigger impact on Asian stock and bond prices than on credit availability. The report noted that credit is still underpinning growth in most of the region, especially Southeast Asia.
Still, the fund noted some areas of potential stress, including large borrowings by companies in China, Indonesia and India. Household credit, despite large jumps in nations like Thailand and Malaysia, remains at manageable levels, the fund said. The IMF said a greater-than-expected slowdown in China, due to financial-sector vulnerabilities, may cloud the picture. Capital inflows also could be less strong than in previous years, as foreign funds look more to the U.S., where stronger growth is sending yields higher. However, the fund added that capital outflows likely will have a bigger impact on Asian stock and bond prices than on credit availability. The report noted that credit is still underpinning growth in most of the region, especially Southeast Asia.
Üsna aktiivne M&A uudistega päev siiani olnud:
SIEMENS SAID TO BE WILLING TO MATCH, BEAT GE OFFER FOR ALSTOM
PFIZER SAID TO PLAN RENEWED PUSH FOR ACQUISITION OF ASTRAZENECA
YOUKU TUDOU SAYS ALIBABA-LED GROUP TO INVEST $1.22B
FOREST LABS TO BUY FURIEX FOR UP TO $1.46 BLN IN CASH, RIGHTS
COMCAST TO DIVEST 3.9M CUSTOMERS OF MERGED CO. ON CHARTER DEAL
ORIX TO ACQUIRE HARTFORD FINANCIAL'S JAPAN UNIT FOR $895M
ENERGY TRANSFER PARTNERS TO BUY SUSSER HOLDINGS FOR $1.8 BILLION
SIEMENS SAID TO BE WILLING TO MATCH, BEAT GE OFFER FOR ALSTOM
PFIZER SAID TO PLAN RENEWED PUSH FOR ACQUISITION OF ASTRAZENECA
YOUKU TUDOU SAYS ALIBABA-LED GROUP TO INVEST $1.22B
FOREST LABS TO BUY FURIEX FOR UP TO $1.46 BLN IN CASH, RIGHTS
COMCAST TO DIVEST 3.9M CUSTOMERS OF MERGED CO. ON CHARTER DEAL
ORIX TO ACQUIRE HARTFORD FINANCIAL'S JAPAN UNIT FOR $895M
ENERGY TRANSFER PARTNERS TO BUY SUSSER HOLDINGS FOR $1.8 BILLION
Reuters: BofA suspends buyback, div increase after capital miscalculation
Bank of America Corp (BAC.N) said it would suspend its $4 billion stock buyback program and a planned increase in its quarterly dividend because it miscalculated the level of its capital after buying Merrill Lynch in 2009.
Bank of America Corp (BAC.N) said it would suspend its $4 billion stock buyback program and a planned increase in its quarterly dividend because it miscalculated the level of its capital after buying Merrill Lynch in 2009.
See on küll hea uudis. Äkki siis dividendid katavad minu LHV halduskulud :-)
AT&T to launch 4G LTE-based in-flight connectivity service
AT&T (T) announced plans to launch a high-speed 4G LTE-based in-flight connectivity service for airlines and passengers in commercial, business and general aviation. The service, planned to be available as soon as late 2015, will be capable of providing in-flight broadband for customers including Wi-Fi and onboard entertainment.
Pisike GOGO on kraavis veidi.
AT&T (T) announced plans to launch a high-speed 4G LTE-based in-flight connectivity service for airlines and passengers in commercial, business and general aviation. The service, planned to be available as soon as late 2015, will be capable of providing in-flight broadband for customers including Wi-Fi and onboard entertainment.
Pisike GOGO on kraavis veidi.
Hea call- GOGO
Päeva lõpuks süvendati kraavi jõudsalt. Analüütikud on ikkagi positiivsed, istuvad seal 23+ juures. MS vist ainukesena negatiivne.
Päeva lõpuks süvendati kraavi jõudsalt. Analüütikud on ikkagi positiivsed, istuvad seal 23+ juures. MS vist ainukesena negatiivne.
MSM
See on küll hea uudis. Äkki siis dividendid katavad minu LHV halduskulud :-)
Sain, eriti pealkirjast, valesti aru. Sain aru, et peatab tagasiostmise ja selle asemel maksab rohkem dividende :-(