Börsipäev 28. aprill - Nortel järgmine Enron?

Tere hommikust!

Tänane tulemustesadu Helsingis on alanud ...

Elcoteq (ELQAV)

Käive I kvartalis 618.5M EUR so. 20% tõusu eelmise aastaga võrreldes, EPS 0.18 EUR, eelmisel aastal samal ajal 0.06 EUR. Tulemused vastavad käibe ja EPS osas analüütikute ootustele, mida korrigeeriti juba 6. aprillil antud positiivses kasumihoiatuse valguses.

Kui aga 6.aprillil pakuti tegevuskasumiks 10.1M, siis see tuli koguni 11.3M EUR, ületades oluliselt ootusi.

II kvartali numbrid arvatakse püsivat samal tasemel, kuid usutakse turu pöördumist üles ja sellest tulenevat kasvu II poolaastal ...

Aktsia avanemas Helsingis 0,77% plussis

TeliaSonera (TLS1V)

Käive 19.946M SEK eelmise aasta sama perioodi 20.349M SEK vastu: languses -1,9% suures osas süüdi valuutakursside ebasoodne mõju (NOK vs. SEK ettevõtte Norra allüksuse käibe konsolideerimisel)

EPS kasvas 0.50 SEK tasemele varasema 0.35 SEK asemel: +42%, tegevuskasum kasvas eelmise aasta sama perioodiga võrreldes 25%, ilusatest kasvunumbritest hoolimata kiputakse analüütikute ootustele alla jääma.

Aktsia avanemas Helsingis -0,53% miinuses.

Nordea (NDA1V) tuli välja üle ootuste heade tulemustega, aktsia käis korraks ka +2%, kuid kasumivõtmine viis hinna jälle pisut allapoole.

Strong results in Q1
- Operating profit up 52% to EUR 584m (EUR 383m in Q4 2003) - oodati 467M EUR
- Net profit more than doubled to EUR 418m (EUR 202m)
- Total income up 2% to EUR 1,421m (EUR 1,399m)
- Total expenses down 10% to EUR 873m (EUR 973m)
- Earnings per share EUR 0.15 (EUR 0.07) - oodati 0.11 EUR

Nordea tulemuste järel on mõnevõrra ülespoole nihkunud ka Sampo (SAMAS) aktsia, ettevõte avaldab oma tulemused 6. mail.

TeliaSonera (TLS1V) on ootustele allajäämise järel ca -4% all, Elcoteq (ELQAV) korralike tulemuste järel kasumivõtmise surve all ca -1%, kuna ettevõtte ei oota II kvartalis praegustele numbritele lisa, kasvu loodetakse alles II poolaastal.

Outokumpu (OUT1V) ületas kõvasti ootusi, käive 1690M EUR (oodati 1447M), EPS 0.55 EUR (oodati 0.15 EUR), aktsia ca +5%.

Metso (MEO1V) käive 928M EUR (ootus 921M EUR), maksude-eelne kahjum oli -12,1M (oodati -12,8M), EPS -0,18 EUR (oodati -0.10 EUR), aktsia languses -1,2%

Stora Enso (STERV) käive 3 017,9M EUR (ootused 2959M EUR), kuid EPS 0.06 EUR (ootused 0.15 EUR)usutakse paberihindade tõusu ja kasvu II poolaastal, aktsia -0,6%, sest reaktsioon oli suures osas juba eilsete UPM-Kymmene tulemuste põhjal ära olnud.

well... Outokumpu CEO ütles juba aktsionäride koosolekul, et "kõik on tuksis, enam ei jõua toota, hinnatõstmine kah ei peletanud kundesid minema" :)
Kui Outokumpu eriti silmapaistvad tulemused välja arvata, siis korralikud tulemused ei ole täna Helsingi Börsil abiks kui Nokia on tegemas viimase 6 päeva madalamaid tasemeid ...
Nortel teatas täna CEO, CFO ja kontrolleri vallandamisest, finantsandmetega on seal firmas päris korralik jama. Ilmselt vähendatakse 2003.a. (jah, eelmise aasta) kasumit 50% võrra. Aktsia on eelturul 20% miinuses.
Oh pask. Tra, ma ütlen, igasugune rep on ikka täielik jama. Cramer on sama tark kui Average Joe. Hasbeen. Või isegi haibitud Neverwas. EMC, NT, TASR jne. Mul küll vaid 1000 NT-d sees ja loss summarselt tilluke, aga asi on sisulisem. Krt ennem läheb issanda päike igaveseks looja kui ma AA+ trialist sabskraiberiks hakkaks. Huvitav on testida, aga no see mees paneb ikka täitsa pange.

Huli dahuja nahujaril, razhujarivõi nahuj...

-USA turud on avanemas miinuses. Dow aktsiatest on löögi all Disney (DIS), Nasdaqi aktsiatest Nortel (NT).

-Comcast (CMCSK) teatas et loobub oma 60 miljardi dollari suurusest pakkumisest Disney (DIS) ostuks. Disney aktsia on eelturul 2,3% miinuses, Comcast on tõusnud üle 6%.

-McDonalds (MCD) teatas positiivsetest majandustulemustest, esimeses kvartalis kerkis müük 16% 4,39 miljardile dollarile. Aktsia eelturul 2,3% plussis.

-Nokiale allhanget tegev RF Microdevices (RFMD) avaldas eile järelturul kehvad kvartalitulemused ning aktsia on 9% miinuses tõmmates endaga kaasa teised allhankijad ja Nokia aktsia.

-Nortel (NT) aktsia on eelturul 1,5 dollarit miinuses ehk 22%. Firma neli kõrget juhti (eesotsas tegevjuhi ja finantsjuhiga). Lisaks vaadatakse üle eelmise aasta kasum.

Rev Shark:

The great difficulty of this market now is the lack of clear direction. We have had some positives, such as good earnings and economic data, and some negatives, such as interest rate worries and the situation in Iraq, but none has been great enough to send the market in one direction.

Market direction is seldom certain but there are usually some good indications that allow us to make an educated guess of where things might be headed. That has not been the case lately.

Both the bullish and bearish cases appear equally reasonable at this juncture. Of course, the bulls and the bears would disagree with that but an objective observer can easily understand the logic of both positions.

The bulls' case is grounded in the fact that the economy continues to improve. The bulls point to the better-than-expected first-quarter earnings, the improving jobs data and robust economic growth. Consumer confidence, home sales, ISM reports and so on all support the proposition that the economy is booming.

The bulls argue that interest rate fears are overblown. It is an inevitable consequence of a better economy and should not come as a surprise. The bulls feel that improved earnings should more than offset the cost of higher rates.

The bear's case is focused primarily on valuation. They argue that the market has been rallying for over a year and has already priced in the economic recovery. They argue that an interest rate hike is now coming sooner than expected and has not been fully discounted by the market. They see oil prices, a stronger dollar, higher interest rates and international unrest as concerns that will weigh on stocks in the month ahead.

Who's right? I don't know. I look to the technical pattern to provide some clues and that is equally murky. Overall the technical patterns are developing in a positive way with inverse cup and handles and descending triangle formations but they are not fully formed and could easily fall apart.

I have no great aversion to anticipating how a pattern will play out but in the current environment I don't have enough clues to make me comfortable with an anticipatory approach. I want to see the indices clearly break support or resistance before taking a more aggressive trading posture.

In the early going we have a slow start to the day. Two poor earnings reports in Europe from Unilever (UL:NYSE) and Siemens (SI:NYSE) are pressuring the bourses. Comcast (CMCSA:Nasdaq) has dropped its Disney (DIS:NYSE), which is hurting the DJIA. There were some solid earnings reports last night but nothing that is a market mover. We don't have economic reports today. The market is uncertain and looking for a theme on which to focus.

Gary B. Smith:

Ma ausalt nii koledat pressiteadet nagu tänane Nortel ei mäletagi, päris shokeeriv. Lisaks teatati, et antud kvartali majandustulemuste avaldamine lükatakse tulevikku. Tulemused pidid tulema homme.
:)


Wednesday, April 28, 2004 8:59 a.m. EDT


Dear Action Alerts PLUS Subscriber,

Sometimes being a money manager means being a crisis
manager. It means recognizing that you bought something
hoping that the worst case wouldn't happen, and it did.


It is in moments like these that a manager has to buck up
and be tough but realize that the worst case has occurred.


Fraud, huge fraud, terrible fraud, occurred at Nortel
(NT:NYSE). It was done to make the company look like it was
part of a gigantic comeback when it wasn't. That means that
the Nortel that I bought willingly and aggressively,
believing that even if the worst case did occur, it would
still be worth something, was a mistake.


To not call it a mistake is to act as if I saw this coming.
I also will admit, candidly, to you readers, that I now
have no way of knowing how to value Nortel because Nortel,
like Cendant (CD:NYSE) when I owned that in 1998, is not
the Nortel I thought it was.


I am faced with a couple of options. I can blow it out
based on the fact that the CEO was apparently crooked.
That's what people are doing in spades today. I can try to
learn more and make a more informed decision over the next
couple of days, although I am sure my rules about buying
and selling and talking about stock will make me unable to
take much defensive action. Or I can take advantage of the
panic, reflect on the cash position and bet that the
company, which was at $8, deserves to be cut in half,
because half the profits turned out to be bogus, and add to
the position.


Let's discuss all three. The "blow out the position and
take the loss" option is the one that the majority is
taking. In doing so, these investors are presuming that
Nortel may not be a going concern. I find that hard to
believe, given the $3.6 billion cash position. These
investors also are unwilling to deal with the myriad
lawsuits that are going to be fired off after this. I am no
stranger to pain, and I can tell from the cash position --
the one solid piece of information that is known -- that
the company is still a going concern. So I don't want to
blow out the position and take the loss.


The "buy more" option is compromised by the fact that I
don't know what I am buying anymore. I don't know the new
management team and I don't know how the business is really
doing -- which, by the way, I thought I did because I
trusted the company. That trust was misplaced. Given that I
own 47,500 shares already, that course would seem a tad
illogical, if not reckless.


So, that leaves "do nothing."


This could be the "do nothing" that I should have done
when, out of emotion, I kicked out Raytheon (RTN:NYSE),
Omnicom (OMC:NYSE) and Newell Rubbermaid (NWL:NYSE) at the
bottom. In the case of Cendant in 1998, a do-nothing
produced nothing good, but no additional harm was done.
Sometimes, that's all you can do in a crisis.


This Nortel setback is a huge one. As befits any time you
own a lot of stock in a fraud, it will wipe out whatever
good has been done by other stocks and I suspect that will
happen this morning to my portfolio.


Recriminations will come later. Somehow, I genuinely
believed that that the WorldCom-Enron-HealthSouth-Tyco-
Adelphia era was behind us. Nortel shows it wasn't.


Perhaps I took the "accounting irrregularities = sell" sign
off the side of my monitor too soon.


As is always the case, because I have my own money where my
mouth is, I feel the twin shame of loss and disappointing
you, my readers.


As always, in a crisis, I fall back on my crisis rules: Try
to curtail the emotion, tough it out, be clear-headed.


And I remember that, this too, shall pass.


For those who are tempted to trade it, I suspect that
Nortel will trade down to $3 at some point today. It seems,
given the gravity of the disaster, that anything even
remotely connected to where it traded down to before this --
the mid-$4s -- is way too high.

Regards,


James J. Cramer


DISCLOSURE: At the time of publication, Cramer was long
Nortel and Cendant.

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Ah pepu, kui viitsite mehed, võtke mu meiliaadress lõpust ära, kui ei ole aega, siis w/e. Sorry. :)
hansapank pushis päris aktiivselt mõni aeg tagasi nortelit
Monia kiitoksia.
Ilmselt ei oodanud ka kõige suuremad pessimistid Nortelilt nii halbu uudiseid. Kuidas siis selle peale mängida? Tegemist siin ikkagi finantspettusega ja seega selle peale panustada kummaski suunas on päris raske. Võimalused languseks siiski suuremad.
$4 tase Nortelil tugev toetus.
... mis nüüdseks juba lühiajaliselt murtud. Aga oluline tase jah.
On kellegil aimu kas CBJ-l on ka mingi põhjus nt. mingi uudis, tänase avanemise taga või...
CBJ - kullaaktsia, kuld ja hõbe saavad täna kõvasti lüüa pärast teadet, et Hiina hakkab pärssima oma majanduskasvu.
Nortelil tundub support olevat ka $3 ja $0.03 juures, ühte neist peaks kaaluma ka ostukohana :/

Oma 1k lükkasin $4.06 juures maha.
Tänud Kristjan aga ei tea kas tasub loota et see lüüa saamine on ajutine või peaks ruttu müüma.